Monday, September 30, 2024

Should you be worried about October?

It’s not all candy bars and pumpkin pie…
 
   
     
   
 
SEPTEMBER 30, 2024
   

Hey y’all,

Should traders be worried about October?

The markets have been running pretty hot lately, and there’s a feeling that the air has to come out of the balloon at some point… right?

And even though October is historically one of the strongest months of the year, everyone is looking for some reason to panic.

Take this, for example. Roger Scott shared this chart in our  company chat, pointing out the worrying discrepancy between the SPY pushing for all-time highs while trading volume is deflated:

 
 

Shouldn’t the markets be red hot as we push towards new highs?

Or what about the markets this morning? Just kind of a sideways mush despite all the reasons for bullish optimism…

As I write this (10:30 AM ET), it seems that people are just waiting for Chairman Powell’s speech this afternoon to make their minds up about what to do in the markets.

It seems that even though there are a ton of reasons for optimism, things just still feel icky.

And then there’s THIS chart, one suggesting that in an “open field” election (one in which neither candidate is running as an incumbent) October is actually a bad month for the stock market:

 
 
It’s easy to see how someone could take a look at all that and feel a little queasy and nervous about whether October will be all it's cracked up to be.

But I want to put your mind at ease a little bit…

Maybe it’s because October is my favorite month of the year, but I have a good feeling about the markets right now.

Yes, there’s uncertainty. And yes, I think there will be lots of volatility throughout the month.

But I do believe that the general direction of the market will be higher.

Remember that while “open fields” are a mixed bag for the stock market, we’re really not in an “open field” this election. I’ll beat the drum on this forever, but both of these candidates are 100% known quantities, and therefore, neither one scares Wall Street too much.

And in addition to the Presidential election, all of this is happening this month in the stock market: 

 
The Fed opening up a new era of easier money borrowing with massive rate cuts
China injecting money into the global economy with massive new stimulus
A new slate of earnings reports coming in the month of October

There are plenty of reasons for positivity.

So I wouldn’t stress TOO much about October. It will be a bumpy ride, for sure, but I think it’ll be an uphill ride.

Once the election comes and goes, that might change. But for now, I’m feeling pretty calm about everything.

Hope you can find some calm, too.

To your Prosperity,

Stephen Ground

P.S.: If you’re still uncertain about the election, you should check out this briefing. SumZero’s #1 ranked stock picker in North America, David Trainer, joined Nate Tucci to share his TOP stock pick for a Harris AND Trump victory. 
   
 

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