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Saturday, June 29, 2024
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The Debate And Its Aftermath
1
Biden won't be the candidate.
Because he can't win in November.
On Wednesday, the day before the debate, the "Washington Post" said Joe was losing in five of the seven battleground states, the only contests that truly matter in this election. And then Nate Silver released his initial prediction, based on his averaging of the polls, and the headline of his piece was:
"The presidential election isn't a toss-up - As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president's favor."" t.ly/nLelB
But we were assured by the Bidenites that everything was copacetic, that in the end people would wake up and Biden would win, after all, who'd want another Trump presidency?
And then came the debate.
The week long run-up bothered me. That's the benefit of getting old, you ignore the hype and wait for the event. Not that I expected the event to move the needle, but then it started.
This is why you play the game. This is why life is worth living. Because despite prognostications, you never know what will happen in the future, NEVER! But we haven't seen an upset of this magnitude since 1969 and Super Bowl III, when the Jets beat the Colts, who were favored by 19.5 points. But please don't use this spread as a reason to believe Biden will win, Joe Namath was young, if not quite spry, his knees were not in the greatest of shape, whereas Joe Biden is old.
There, I said it. Joe Biden is too old.
The Democrats are the worst offenders here. And the backlash is deafening. Everybody can do the job. We need to let handicapped people play in the NBA. What ever happened to the best person for the job?
But for the best analysis, I refer you to Nate Silver once again:
"Joe Biden Should Drop Out - Denying Joe Biden's decline has put the Democrats in a terrible position": t.ly/vrKAy
Now the reason you should read this second article is it's a statistical analysis of aging and dying. What is lost and when. Baseball has been revolutionized by statistics, just read Michael Lewis's "Moneyball," and that was published back in 2003! That's right, our entire world is now run by data, but when it comes to the DNC? It's irrelevant.
Bottom line...if Joe Biden finishes a second term he'll be 86. Stop and think about that. Do you really want an 86 year old chief executive? There are only two people older in the Fortune 500, Warren Buffett and Roger Penske, and they control their companies: t.ly/0fZqp The thought of having someone of that age in the top job is horrifying in business. But in politics?
Bottom line is decline happens faster as you age, and your odds of dying increase. It's not linear. So you're asking the public at large to elect someone who may not even be alive in four years, who may exhibit mental decline? And, of course, there are nonagenarians with perfect cognitive abilities, but my mother started repeating herself in her mid-eighties. As time went on, she was not even in charge of her checkbook, because as you age, the mind falters.
These are facts, but if you don't believe them, we can just brush them aside. Because we saw Joe Biden on Thursday night and it was perfectly clear that the aging process, the decline, had not only begun, but there was further attrition.
And everybody freaked out.
I don't know about you. But from the very first moment Joe spoke I winced, audibly. I just couldn't believe it. His stiff walk on stage maybe I could let pass, but not his performance. And then my text messages started to go wild. People were weighing in from across the country. People who've never communicated with me regarding politics, they were absolutely stunned, they could not believe their eyes, they felt there was no chance Biden could win.
But for the last forty eight hours we've been told to deny our eyes, not to believe what we saw, and now the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans, who keep telling us January 6th was a picnic, a romp in the park. But I saw both of these events in real time with my own eyes!
No wonder no one believes in politics anymore.
But it gets worse.
But first there was a dose of reality.
As soon as the debate was over, I switched to MSNBC, where I expected the usual spin, pro-Biden. But just the opposite took place. Rachel Maddow spoke first, and her words were halting. She didn't paint a positive picture, not whatsoever, what she'd seen was an unmitigated disaster.
And then Nicole Wallace echoed her statements. And then Joy Reid, who said she'd been in contact with the Democrats during the debate, that her phone had been blowing up. Rachel asked Joy if these were just citizens, or true insiders with power. Joy said the latter.
Then they threw it to Alex Wagner, on the floor of the debate. It was like a family member had died.
And then back to Lawrence O'Donnell in the studio, who started talking about how bad Trump was.
This is what happens when you're too inside, you can't see the game. This debate ended up not being about substance, but PERCEPTION! It didn't matter a whit what either candidate said, first and foremost because you often couldn't even hear Biden, never mind understand him. His voice was not only raspy, but soft. Softer than anybody in attendance.
As for those who said Biden got better and Trump worse at the end... You can argue such, but you can't get over the initial perception, that Biden was old and had lost a step.
And then Chris Hayes echoed Rachel and Nicole and Joy and Alex.
I've never seen this before. There was no spin. Just acknowledgement of what a disaster this was.
2
And then I drove to the Hollywood Bowl to see Chris Stapleton, and constantly refreshed my phone for analysis. The L.A. "Times" had none. Proving that when you cut your staff to the bone you pay a price. And the big players didn't instantly go negative, but by time we hit about 10 or 10:30 Thursday night, they had.
It was clear. This was a debacle. Biden was toast.
I get it, I get it. It's a game. You've got to have your ducks in a row before you proceed. You've got to have a plan for the future before you get rid of Joe.
So there was the rally in North Carolina after the debate. All we hear is how firey Joe was. But if you watch the video, when Jill Biden is on the podium, Joe is a deer in the headlights behind, just like he was at the podium the night before.
And speaking of the night before, have you seen the video of the walk-offs? Trump turned tail and strode off the stage. Biden? He had to wait for Jill. Who took his arm, and then had to help him down the tiny little steps.
Maybe you didn't see it. But it's all over social media. And the Republicans will make hay of this. And there's no issue of editing, this is raw footage.
And now I have to beat up the DNC. How in the hell did you let this happen? This is the same outfit that is asking us for money for television ads? They've got no viable plan to reach the younger generations who live online, other than paid ads with grandpa Joe asking for money, which are execrable. The DNC's entire plan was to talk about how bad the other guy was. You cannot win if you don't play offense, you've got to put some points on the board. And Biden was in the dugout, on the bench, and when he strode up to the plate... I wouldn't say he choked so much as crumbled.
It doesn't matter if he had a cold, this is much worse than a bad night, this is TRAGIC!
And once again, if you're on the social media the oldsters who say they know better deprecate, you'll see footage of the Vice Presidential debate between Biden and Ryan with Charlie Rose back in 2012. Your jaw will drop. It's a completely different Biden. Talk about losing a step, Biden has lost many.
And all we hear from insiders is their hands are tied. That there's nothing they can do, it's Joe's decision whether to stay or go.
That ain't true in the least. That's the kind of hogwash that gets my dander up. It's very simple...
Let's use the case of Watergate. The Republicans denied, denied and denied, but then they realized it was a lost cause and they went to the White House and told Nixon he had to resign. This is how it always happens, very slowly and then all at once.
Not only can you speak truth to power, you have a lot of tools in your box. You can say you won't introduce any legislation in a second Biden term. That you will block all of his appointments. That you'll vote to defund his travel. This is how you fire someone who won't go, you freeze them out. This is why Al Franken left the Senate, they squeezed him out by telling them they were going to freeze him out if he didn't leave, and he left.
As for Biden defying this... Why? He's the only one who can beat Trump? Anybody who saw the debate who thinks that Biden can still defeat Trump is delusional.
As for Trump... He lied his ass off. But until deep into the debate there were no histrionics. He observed the time limits. He spoke slowly. Trump rose to the challenge, Biden did not. If anybody looked Presidential on stage, it was Trump.
3
You only have one job now, to stop supporting Joe Biden for President. It's a losing cause.
I've been saying Joe Biden is too old for nearly a year. And whenever I do, I lose hundreds of subscribers. People can't handle the truth. They want to argue with me. Thursday night taught me a lesson, to stick to my guns. Tribalism and groupthink got us into this mess. And it ain't gonna get us out.
The world has changed and the Democrats have not.
So who is going to run? IT ALMOST DOESN'T MATTER!
I used to believe in Gavin Newsom, but the right has done such a good job of defining him, negatively, that he's no longer that strong a candidate. Polis and Pritzker are good, but not well-known. It's very simple, Gretchen Whitmer for President and Josh Shapiro for Vice President. Not only are they both competent, they've got higher profiles than Polis and Pritzker. And even better, they're governors of two battleground states. Time to fight fire with fire.
As for Kamala Harris... She's in a worse situation than Newsom. The Republicans have defined her so negatively that even Democrats have accepted this characterization. Once again, perception is everything, EVERYTHING! As for those saying getting rid of Harris will alienate Black voters and women... If everybody wanted Harris so much, why did she do so poorly in the 2020 primaries, never mind the debates.
But one thing is for sure, it can't be Joe. Anyone but Joe.
And in truth the hoi polloi might be donating since the debate, but the deep pockets, the big spenders, are now holding back. Not only do they feel duped, they want to wait until the dust settles.
Biden is bloviating, but everybody knows it's over. And they have to ensure that this is the case. Sooner rather than later.
I know, I know, you can't get rid of Joe without a plan. So you've got to kill a bit of time. But I'm sick and tired of all these loyal soldiers defending Biden. Chris Matthews on Bill Maher last night made me puke. And you might not even subscribe to HBO, but in this overloaded fragmented world "Real Time" is where many people get their news. And to see this guy be noncommittal...
But it's not only Matthews, it's seemingly everybody with a profile. No one can have a backbone, no one can speak the truth? We saw the debate with our own two eyes, over fifty million of us, and you're going to tell us we can't believe what we saw? This was not a bad night. This was evidence of someone who needs to retire. Pronto. With a bit of his dignity intact.
And don't compare 2024 with 1968. It's completely different. The story then was Vietnam. There is no Vietnam today, young people are not afraid of being sent overseas to be killed in a fruitless war. As for Israel/Gaza... Can we stop letting the tail wag the dog? Can we stop letting the minority control the majority? It's a very few people protesting. You're not supposed to be afraid, you're supposed to lead.
And I'm old enough to remember when JFK told us "Ask not what your country can do for you...ask what you can do for your country." We're dying to help. But enough with our money, enough with knocking on doors. First and foremost we have to believe in the cause, that's what motivates us. And it's time to turn around this selfish nation, make it more compassionate. That's what most people want. You can win by leading with kindness.
Not that the ultimate Democratic candidate needs to fight with one hand behind their back, when they go low we need to punch them right down, correct their falsehoods.
4
I had no intention of writing about the debate. I saw no upside. And now it was clear everything I said about Biden's age was right. Period. I don't believe in victory laps like Kara Swisher and Bill Maher, telling you I was right. You followed me, you know.
But what has happened since... Biden doubling-down, his seconds building him up, that just pisses me off. I saw the truth with my own eyes and now people are telling me to just believe... Well that hasn't worked out so far. And let me reinforce, if Biden is re-elected he'll finish his term at 86! Divorce it from Biden. Just think about that. Do you want an 86 year old running ANYTHING? Sure, oldsters have accumulated wisdom, which we rarely listen to, never mind respect in America. But you need someone fit, quick, on their toes to be the President, and that ain't Joe.
Just gimme some truth. But there are no John Lennons plying the boards these days, everybody thinks about the team, the bucks first. But the team is not always right. They were wrong about Biden...
NEXT!
--
Visit the archive: lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
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-iHeart: ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
www.twitter.com/lefsetz
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To change your email address this link
Biden won't be the candidate.
Because he can't win in November.
On Wednesday, the day before the debate, the "Washington Post" said Joe was losing in five of the seven battleground states, the only contests that truly matter in this election. And then Nate Silver released his initial prediction, based on his averaging of the polls, and the headline of his piece was:
"The presidential election isn't a toss-up - As our model launches, either Biden or Trump could easily win — but the odds are in the ex-president's favor."" t.ly/nLelB
But we were assured by the Bidenites that everything was copacetic, that in the end people would wake up and Biden would win, after all, who'd want another Trump presidency?
And then came the debate.
The week long run-up bothered me. That's the benefit of getting old, you ignore the hype and wait for the event. Not that I expected the event to move the needle, but then it started.
This is why you play the game. This is why life is worth living. Because despite prognostications, you never know what will happen in the future, NEVER! But we haven't seen an upset of this magnitude since 1969 and Super Bowl III, when the Jets beat the Colts, who were favored by 19.5 points. But please don't use this spread as a reason to believe Biden will win, Joe Namath was young, if not quite spry, his knees were not in the greatest of shape, whereas Joe Biden is old.
There, I said it. Joe Biden is too old.
The Democrats are the worst offenders here. And the backlash is deafening. Everybody can do the job. We need to let handicapped people play in the NBA. What ever happened to the best person for the job?
But for the best analysis, I refer you to Nate Silver once again:
"Joe Biden Should Drop Out - Denying Joe Biden's decline has put the Democrats in a terrible position": t.ly/vrKAy
Now the reason you should read this second article is it's a statistical analysis of aging and dying. What is lost and when. Baseball has been revolutionized by statistics, just read Michael Lewis's "Moneyball," and that was published back in 2003! That's right, our entire world is now run by data, but when it comes to the DNC? It's irrelevant.
Bottom line...if Joe Biden finishes a second term he'll be 86. Stop and think about that. Do you really want an 86 year old chief executive? There are only two people older in the Fortune 500, Warren Buffett and Roger Penske, and they control their companies: t.ly/0fZqp The thought of having someone of that age in the top job is horrifying in business. But in politics?
Bottom line is decline happens faster as you age, and your odds of dying increase. It's not linear. So you're asking the public at large to elect someone who may not even be alive in four years, who may exhibit mental decline? And, of course, there are nonagenarians with perfect cognitive abilities, but my mother started repeating herself in her mid-eighties. As time went on, she was not even in charge of her checkbook, because as you age, the mind falters.
These are facts, but if you don't believe them, we can just brush them aside. Because we saw Joe Biden on Thursday night and it was perfectly clear that the aging process, the decline, had not only begun, but there was further attrition.
And everybody freaked out.
I don't know about you. But from the very first moment Joe spoke I winced, audibly. I just couldn't believe it. His stiff walk on stage maybe I could let pass, but not his performance. And then my text messages started to go wild. People were weighing in from across the country. People who've never communicated with me regarding politics, they were absolutely stunned, they could not believe their eyes, they felt there was no chance Biden could win.
But for the last forty eight hours we've been told to deny our eyes, not to believe what we saw, and now the Democrats are just as bad as the Republicans, who keep telling us January 6th was a picnic, a romp in the park. But I saw both of these events in real time with my own eyes!
No wonder no one believes in politics anymore.
But it gets worse.
But first there was a dose of reality.
As soon as the debate was over, I switched to MSNBC, where I expected the usual spin, pro-Biden. But just the opposite took place. Rachel Maddow spoke first, and her words were halting. She didn't paint a positive picture, not whatsoever, what she'd seen was an unmitigated disaster.
And then Nicole Wallace echoed her statements. And then Joy Reid, who said she'd been in contact with the Democrats during the debate, that her phone had been blowing up. Rachel asked Joy if these were just citizens, or true insiders with power. Joy said the latter.
Then they threw it to Alex Wagner, on the floor of the debate. It was like a family member had died.
And then back to Lawrence O'Donnell in the studio, who started talking about how bad Trump was.
This is what happens when you're too inside, you can't see the game. This debate ended up not being about substance, but PERCEPTION! It didn't matter a whit what either candidate said, first and foremost because you often couldn't even hear Biden, never mind understand him. His voice was not only raspy, but soft. Softer than anybody in attendance.
As for those who said Biden got better and Trump worse at the end... You can argue such, but you can't get over the initial perception, that Biden was old and had lost a step.
And then Chris Hayes echoed Rachel and Nicole and Joy and Alex.
I've never seen this before. There was no spin. Just acknowledgement of what a disaster this was.
2
And then I drove to the Hollywood Bowl to see Chris Stapleton, and constantly refreshed my phone for analysis. The L.A. "Times" had none. Proving that when you cut your staff to the bone you pay a price. And the big players didn't instantly go negative, but by time we hit about 10 or 10:30 Thursday night, they had.
It was clear. This was a debacle. Biden was toast.
I get it, I get it. It's a game. You've got to have your ducks in a row before you proceed. You've got to have a plan for the future before you get rid of Joe.
So there was the rally in North Carolina after the debate. All we hear is how firey Joe was. But if you watch the video, when Jill Biden is on the podium, Joe is a deer in the headlights behind, just like he was at the podium the night before.
And speaking of the night before, have you seen the video of the walk-offs? Trump turned tail and strode off the stage. Biden? He had to wait for Jill. Who took his arm, and then had to help him down the tiny little steps.
Maybe you didn't see it. But it's all over social media. And the Republicans will make hay of this. And there's no issue of editing, this is raw footage.
And now I have to beat up the DNC. How in the hell did you let this happen? This is the same outfit that is asking us for money for television ads? They've got no viable plan to reach the younger generations who live online, other than paid ads with grandpa Joe asking for money, which are execrable. The DNC's entire plan was to talk about how bad the other guy was. You cannot win if you don't play offense, you've got to put some points on the board. And Biden was in the dugout, on the bench, and when he strode up to the plate... I wouldn't say he choked so much as crumbled.
It doesn't matter if he had a cold, this is much worse than a bad night, this is TRAGIC!
And once again, if you're on the social media the oldsters who say they know better deprecate, you'll see footage of the Vice Presidential debate between Biden and Ryan with Charlie Rose back in 2012. Your jaw will drop. It's a completely different Biden. Talk about losing a step, Biden has lost many.
And all we hear from insiders is their hands are tied. That there's nothing they can do, it's Joe's decision whether to stay or go.
That ain't true in the least. That's the kind of hogwash that gets my dander up. It's very simple...
Let's use the case of Watergate. The Republicans denied, denied and denied, but then they realized it was a lost cause and they went to the White House and told Nixon he had to resign. This is how it always happens, very slowly and then all at once.
Not only can you speak truth to power, you have a lot of tools in your box. You can say you won't introduce any legislation in a second Biden term. That you will block all of his appointments. That you'll vote to defund his travel. This is how you fire someone who won't go, you freeze them out. This is why Al Franken left the Senate, they squeezed him out by telling them they were going to freeze him out if he didn't leave, and he left.
As for Biden defying this... Why? He's the only one who can beat Trump? Anybody who saw the debate who thinks that Biden can still defeat Trump is delusional.
As for Trump... He lied his ass off. But until deep into the debate there were no histrionics. He observed the time limits. He spoke slowly. Trump rose to the challenge, Biden did not. If anybody looked Presidential on stage, it was Trump.
3
You only have one job now, to stop supporting Joe Biden for President. It's a losing cause.
I've been saying Joe Biden is too old for nearly a year. And whenever I do, I lose hundreds of subscribers. People can't handle the truth. They want to argue with me. Thursday night taught me a lesson, to stick to my guns. Tribalism and groupthink got us into this mess. And it ain't gonna get us out.
The world has changed and the Democrats have not.
So who is going to run? IT ALMOST DOESN'T MATTER!
I used to believe in Gavin Newsom, but the right has done such a good job of defining him, negatively, that he's no longer that strong a candidate. Polis and Pritzker are good, but not well-known. It's very simple, Gretchen Whitmer for President and Josh Shapiro for Vice President. Not only are they both competent, they've got higher profiles than Polis and Pritzker. And even better, they're governors of two battleground states. Time to fight fire with fire.
As for Kamala Harris... She's in a worse situation than Newsom. The Republicans have defined her so negatively that even Democrats have accepted this characterization. Once again, perception is everything, EVERYTHING! As for those saying getting rid of Harris will alienate Black voters and women... If everybody wanted Harris so much, why did she do so poorly in the 2020 primaries, never mind the debates.
But one thing is for sure, it can't be Joe. Anyone but Joe.
And in truth the hoi polloi might be donating since the debate, but the deep pockets, the big spenders, are now holding back. Not only do they feel duped, they want to wait until the dust settles.
Biden is bloviating, but everybody knows it's over. And they have to ensure that this is the case. Sooner rather than later.
I know, I know, you can't get rid of Joe without a plan. So you've got to kill a bit of time. But I'm sick and tired of all these loyal soldiers defending Biden. Chris Matthews on Bill Maher last night made me puke. And you might not even subscribe to HBO, but in this overloaded fragmented world "Real Time" is where many people get their news. And to see this guy be noncommittal...
But it's not only Matthews, it's seemingly everybody with a profile. No one can have a backbone, no one can speak the truth? We saw the debate with our own two eyes, over fifty million of us, and you're going to tell us we can't believe what we saw? This was not a bad night. This was evidence of someone who needs to retire. Pronto. With a bit of his dignity intact.
And don't compare 2024 with 1968. It's completely different. The story then was Vietnam. There is no Vietnam today, young people are not afraid of being sent overseas to be killed in a fruitless war. As for Israel/Gaza... Can we stop letting the tail wag the dog? Can we stop letting the minority control the majority? It's a very few people protesting. You're not supposed to be afraid, you're supposed to lead.
And I'm old enough to remember when JFK told us "Ask not what your country can do for you...ask what you can do for your country." We're dying to help. But enough with our money, enough with knocking on doors. First and foremost we have to believe in the cause, that's what motivates us. And it's time to turn around this selfish nation, make it more compassionate. That's what most people want. You can win by leading with kindness.
Not that the ultimate Democratic candidate needs to fight with one hand behind their back, when they go low we need to punch them right down, correct their falsehoods.
4
I had no intention of writing about the debate. I saw no upside. And now it was clear everything I said about Biden's age was right. Period. I don't believe in victory laps like Kara Swisher and Bill Maher, telling you I was right. You followed me, you know.
But what has happened since... Biden doubling-down, his seconds building him up, that just pisses me off. I saw the truth with my own eyes and now people are telling me to just believe... Well that hasn't worked out so far. And let me reinforce, if Biden is re-elected he'll finish his term at 86! Divorce it from Biden. Just think about that. Do you want an 86 year old running ANYTHING? Sure, oldsters have accumulated wisdom, which we rarely listen to, never mind respect in America. But you need someone fit, quick, on their toes to be the President, and that ain't Joe.
Just gimme some truth. But there are no John Lennons plying the boards these days, everybody thinks about the team, the bucks first. But the team is not always right. They were wrong about Biden...
NEXT!
--
Visit the archive: lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, Unsubscribe
To change your email address this link
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