Friday, May 10, 2024

Beyond NVIDIA and Microsoft: the untold AI revolution is at your doorstep! 🚪

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We have a message from our friend Shah Gilani at Manward Press. The message that Shah relayed to his readers is very interesting, and we wanted to share it with you.

- Ryan Fitzwater, Publisher



Beyond NVIDIA and Microsoft: The Untold AI Revolution is at Your Doorstep! 🚪


Dear Reader,

If you thought what happened with AI last year was huge... you ain't seen nothing yet!

Artificial intelligence is about to hit a major milestone.

And the so-called experts on Wall Street, not to mention the talking heads in the financial media, have kept you focused on the wrong thing!

Forget NVIDIA. Forget Microsoft.

Investors should be thinking about this single urgent question...

What will happen when the AI singularity clock strikes MIDNIGHT?

It's coming sooner than you think.

In fact, the genius mind behind this indicator believes we're now 50% of the way there.

And when the bell finally rings... my team's research shows it will create a massive shock to the global economy.

It may also be the greatest generator of new wealth in the history of humanity – bigger than the computer revolution... bigger than the internet.

You have to hear what's going on. Click here and I'll fill you in on everything you need to do to prepare for this fast-approaching event.

Cheers,

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist, Manward Press

 

The VA's high hopes for psychedelics

The ideas and innovators shaping health care
May 10, 2024 View in browser
 
Future Pulse

By Erin Schumaker, Shawn Zeller, Daniel Payne and Ruth Reader

AROUND THE AGENCIES

VA undersecretary for health Shereef Elnahal

The VA's Elnahal (right) got a warm reception at a psychedelics conference in New York today. | Erin Schumaker/POLITICO

“The more you continue to prove the case on this and the more you help us set up the case for veterans, the easier the VA will be able to take this and run with it.”

Dr. Shereef Elnahal, the undersecretary for health at the Department of Veterans Affairs

Dr. Shereef Elnahal, the undersecretary for health at the Department of Veterans Affairs, found kindred spirits at a conference in New York today put on by the Horizons Center Public Benefit Corp., which promotes psychedelic drugs.

How so? The VA announced in January that it would fund research into psychedelics like MDMA, also known as ecstasy, and psilocybin as potential treatments for post-traumatic stress disorder and depression. While outside groups have funded studies at the VA, it's the first time since the 1960s that the agency has put money toward psychedelic research.

The agency has about 13 psychedelic studies underway and is looking to expand, Elnahal said Friday.

For that work, Elnahal received a standing ovation.

"We keep proving the science. We keep surprising the folks who are skeptical," he told the crowd.

Why the VA matters: It's the largest health system in the country and serves a population with disproportionately high rates of PTSD.

About 5 percent of Americans have PTSD in any given year, according to the Department of Veterans Affairs. Veterans, especially those who have deployed, are more likely than civilians to have PTSD. Both male and female veterans with PTSD are at a higher risk for suicide than veterans without the condition.

Current treatments for PTSD, like antidepressants, carry side effects and don't work for everyone.

Jeff George, chairman of the board at drugmaker Lykos Therapeutics, whose new drug application for MDMA combined with therapy the Food and Drug Administration is considering, highlighted the importance of agency support in bringing psychedelic medicine to the mainstream during the Horizons conference.

In addition to the FDA, "the VA plays a huge role," he said. It's not just veterans, he added, noting that a large proportion of doctors train in the VA system.

In a divided Congress, psychedelic research is also a rare bipartisan issue, George and Elnahal pointed out. "There aren't a lot of purple issues that bring together Trumpers and the left-wing like psychedelics," George said.

Bipartisan congressional support should motivate the scientific community to conduct rigorous and ethical work, Elnahal said: "As long as we do that, bipartisan support will only get stronger."

What's next? The FDA is holding an advisory committee meeting on June 4 to consider Lykos' application. If the FDA approves, the Drug Enforcement Administration would still have to reschedule MDMA before doctors could prescribe it to patients.

"The moment FDA approves MDMA — and I don’t have any insight into that," Elnahal said, "We’re going to see demand for this go through the roof, especially among the veteran population."

 

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Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced and better sourced than any other. Our healthcare reporting team—including Alice Miranda Ollstein, Megan Messerly and Robert King—is embedded with the market-moving legislative committees and agencies in Washington and across states, delivering unparalleled coverage of health policy and the healthcare industry. We bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY.

 
 
WELCOME TO FUTURE PULSE

New Harbor, Maine

New Harbor, Maine | Shawn Zeller/POLITICO

This is where we explore the ideas and innovators shaping health care.

Medieval English red squirrels may have spread leprosy to humans, according to research published this month in Current Biology. In England at that time, pet squirrels and squirrel-lined clothing were common.

Share any thoughts, news, tips and feedback with Carmen Paun at cpaun@politico.com, Daniel Payne at dpayne@politico.com, Ruth Reader at rreader@politico.com or Erin Schumaker at eschumaker@politico.com.

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POLICY PUZZLE

Katherine Tai addresses the press.

Tai wants feedback on how to fix the world's supply chains. | Simon Wohlfahrt/AFP via Getty Images

The world’s biggest drug companies aren’t keen on a Biden administration push to secure global supply chains.

How’s that? The leading trade group for drugmakers, the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, blasted U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai last month for departing from “longstanding and bipartisan U.S. trade objectives by deprioritizing, and in certain instances proactively opposing, the very trade policies that best promote resilient biopharmaceutical supply chains.”

The broadside, which stressed the need for trade agreements the administration has opposed, came in PhRMA comments from Douglas Petersen, the group’s deputy vice president, on Tai’s March request for comment on how to bolster supply chains after the Covid pandemic exposed their frailty.

Tai’s take: The March notice, many industry officials believe, signaled hostility to new trade deals and preferences for tariffs or other means of bringing manufacturing back to the United States.

It criticized past U.S. trade and investment policy as too focused on short-term cost efficiency and tariff liberalization, our Doug Palmer reported.

That, the March notice said, has facilitated a “race to the bottom” and a “hollowing out of the American industrial base” that “leaves critical sectors vulnerable to non-market policies and practices, economic coercion, and other unfair trade practices, and deprives consumers of goods whose production reflects our core values.”

Industry pushback: Other industry groups, including the trade group for medical device makers, AdvaMed, and the Trade Alliance for Health, didn’t echo PhRMA’s criticism, but they amplified its message in their comments to the agency.

Abby Pratt, AdvaMed senior vice president global strategy and analysis, said, “The U.S. should not miss the opportunity to enforce or expand existing trade agreements.”

The trade alliance, which represents both drug and device makers, said it was unrealistic to think policy could make domestic manufacturers self-sufficient. Instead, it advocated “friend-shoring” — ensuring critical supplies come from allied nations.

All three groups endorsed legislation by Sen. Tom Carper (D-Del.) and Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), the Medical Supply Chain Resiliency Act, which promotes new trade agreements.

What’s next? The U.S. trade representative’s office held its first hearing last week and plans three more before the end of May.

At the first hearing, Tai’s special counsel in charge of supply chain policy, Victor Ban, said the agency was open-minded on the issue. “We want to understand from all of you where the challenges and pain points are and where potential solutions may lie, whether through existing trade tools or potentially new ones,” Ban said.

 

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WASHINGTON WATCH

An emergency room is pictured. | AP

Hospitals are integrating AI into patient care at a rapid clip.

The American Hospital Association has some ideas for Congress on how to regulate artificial intelligence in health care.

In response to Rep. Ami Bera’s inquiry, the association this week offered an industry perspective on how regulators and lawmakers should tackle the issue.

The hospital group told the California Democrat it believes government rules for AI should be:

— Flexible, so they can change with technological change

— Risk-sensitive, so more scrutiny is given to technologies that pose more risk to people and less to those that pose fewer dangers

— Adaptive, so rules are tailored to health care

— Familiar, since it’s preferable to regulate using existing systems whenever possible instead of creating new ones

“If, or perhaps when, existing frameworks prove inadequate for the continually evolving landscape of AI, then it might be necessary for Congress to amend them or create new ones,” wrote Lisa Kidder Hrobsky, the hospital association’s senior vice president for legislative and political affairs.

 

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The Most Powerful Force Driving Today's Markets

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Shah Gilani

Shah Gilani
Chief Investment Strategist

These days, it's all about the narrative.

It's the powerful force that drives today's markets.

Narratives do more than just inform. They influence, and more importantly, dictate market movements.

These stories - because that's all narratives are... stories - can sway investor sentiment and trigger significant fluctuations in stock and bond markets.

Whether they concern economic data... corporate earnings... or geopolitical events.

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Understanding Narratives in Financial Markets

A narrative in financial markets is, essentially, a cohesive story or explanation that describes or predicts economic or financial phenomena.

In his bestselling book on the topic, Nobel laureate Robert Shiller emphasizes that these stories can affect both individual and collective economic behavior. Market-wide, they shape decisions about buying, selling, and holding assets.

My mantra is: While capital moves markets... psychology moves capital.

And, of course, psychology is a function of the stories we believe are true (or will come true).

We can see this playing out now in the headlines...

Rate Cut Narratives and Market Reaction

Take, for instance, the narrative surrounding interest rate cuts by central banks.

When the prevailing story suggests that a central bank, like our own Federal Reserve, is likely to cut interest rates, it often leads to bullish moves in both bond and stock markets. Here's how this works:

  1. Bond Markets: Interest rate cuts typically decrease the yields on bonds, making the existing bonds with higher yields more attractive. This expectation can cause bond prices to rise as traders rush to buy before the rates actually drop.
  2. Stock Markets: Similarly, the prospect of lower interest rates reduces the cost of borrowing and can stimulate economic growth, which tends to boost corporate profits. Anticipation of rate cuts can therefore drive up stock prices, as investors look forward to improved earnings prospects.

These narratives gain traction through media, analyst reports, and trader chatter. More importantly for us to understand as traders and investors, they create a self-reinforcing cycle of market behavior that can sometimes detach from the underlying economic fundamentals.

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Narrative Trading vs. Long-term Investing

Narrative trading isn't just a style of investing. It's an approach that every modern investor should include as part of their overall strategy.

The way markets move these days, you really have no choice. I used Nvidia (NVDA) and the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks to make this point here back in March.

Trading the narrative involves making decisions based on the stories and prevailing sentiments influencing a particular stock, a sector or industry, or markets at any given time.

To be clear, this approach contrasts sharply with long-term investing. With long-term investing, decisions are traditionally based on fundamental analysis of a company's potential for growth over years or even decades.

Narrative traders - and, like I said, we are all narrative traders now - ride the waves of current market sentiment, often capitalizing on short-term movements prompted by news stories or economic announcements.

This trend towards narrative trading has been facilitated by several factors:

  • Increased Accessibility: With the rise of online trading platforms and social media, more people have access to market data and news than ever. It allows them to make quick trading decisions based on the latest narratives.
  • Media Influence: The media plays a crucial role in shaping narratives. When major outlets highlight certain facts, figures, or viewpoints, it can sometimes lead to exaggerated market reactions.
  • Behavioral Biases: Humans are naturally susceptible to the influence of stories. Narratives can tap into cognitive biases such as herd behavior or confirmation bias, leading to more pronounced market movements.

But even with some of these more recent developments, it's important to understand that this phenomenon isn't new.

Examples of Narrative-Driven Market Movements

Historically, we've seen the effect of narrative-driven trading in some big events, going far beyond interest rate changes...

  • Tech Bubble of the Late 1990s: The narrative that "the internet would change everything" led to exorbitant valuations of tech companies, many of which had little to no profits. It all culminated in a market crash when the narrative faltered.
  • Financial Crisis of 2008: The narrative of ever-rising real estate prices contributed to excessive risk-taking in mortgage lending and financial instruments, which eventually led to a market collapse.

And those are just two extreme examples. There are countless others.

Narratives are powerful drivers of market behavior, capable of influencing short-term trading and creating significant volatility. While they can provide opportunities for traders to make quick gains, they also pose risks. Especially when the narrative diverges significantly from economic realities.

That's why it's so important that you understand what's happening behind those big swings.

For long-term investors, the challenge lies in distinguishing between fleeting narratives and enduring trends that align with fundamental analyses. Because, as you should now know, understanding the narrative these days can be just as important as understanding the numbers.

Knowing what the story is... and what the story behind the story is will make you money.

It could make you a lot of money, if you understand the narrative at play.

Cheers,

Shah

P.S. There's no bigger narrative right now than the one surrounding artificial intelligence. It's fueled Nvidia's 200%-plus gain over the past year. And I predict it will fuel an unknown AI startup's rapid rise over the months ahead. The company's powerful technology solves the biggest problem holding back AI. You've got to see what it's up to - click here.

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