| | | | |  | | By Matt Berg and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (left) speaks as President Joe Biden listens during a meeting on the sidelines of the NATO Summit in Washington on July 11, 2024. By design, Ukraine was this week’s big winner. | Susan Walsh/AP | With help from Miles J. Herszenhorn, Joe Gould, Connor O’Brien and Alex Ward Subscribe here | Email Matt | Email Eric Aside from the hellishly hot weather and traffic disrupting everyday life in America’s capital, the NATO summit has gone smoothly — despite few major policy agreements. By design, Ukraine was this week’s big winner: The 32-member alliance agreed to language declaring the country’s membership in the alliance “irreversible,” intends to provide $43 billion in military assistance next year, has started transferring F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, and is sending dozens of air defense systems (including four Patriots) to Kyiv. In a joint communique, NATO members also condemned Moscow’s nuclear saber-rattling, and called China the “decisive enabler” in Russia’s war against Ukraine — which is already pissing off Beijing. While Ukraine didn’t get everything it wants, Kyiv made clear today it was happy with the result. “We are satisfied with the result of the Washington summit. The language of the document is really strong. The alliance made real steps forward … The next stop is Ukraine needs to receive the invitation,” ANDRIY YERMAK, President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY’s closest adviser, said during a public appearance today. The White House also had a win, of sorts: Biden hasn’t had any major public gaffes while hosting. But critiques of his health from U.S. lawmakers may come after the summit thanks to Rep. NANCY PELOSI’s (D-Calif.) private efforts, and Europeans are already speculating about his mental and physical capacities heading into the November election. “You’re worried if he knows which direction he’s going or whether he’s going to fall or what he’s going to forget,” a senior European diplomat told our colleagues. The final hurdle for Biden is tonight’s unscripted post-summit news conference scheduled for 6:30 p.m. It’s a high-stakes engagement with reporters, possibly the last chance for the Biden campaign to prove to the world that he should lead the largest military alliance for another four years. At least a half-dozen lawmakers are preparing to go public against the president if he tanks the presser — and some may bash him regardless. In a call with reporters today, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN said the summit is proof that Biden is capable of doing the job: “The capacity and strength of this alliance should send a clear message to any of our adversaries anywhere in the world.” As for the strength of NATO overall … well that’s still up for debate, and the discussions largely circle around the upcoming U.S. election. NATO leaders have focused on “Trump-proofing” the alliance out of fear that former President DONALD TRUMP could win office again and fracture the bloc, and it’s still unclear whether they could stop him. Some NATO leaders are open to bumping up the defense spending requirement to 3 percent of a country’s GDP, while other members aren’t close to the 2 percent target. And a couple members won’t stop taking shots at the United States and the West. Read: NATO allies try to get inside Trump’s head while in Washington by our own ALEX WARD.
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | | | | RUSSIAN PLOT FOILED: Russia planned to assassinate the head of a German arms manufacturer that has been providing ammunition and vehicles to Ukraine, U.S. intelligence discovered earlier this year. That’s according to five U.S. and Western officials who spoke with CNN’s KATIE BO LILLIS, NATASHA BERTRAND and FREDERIK PLEITGEN, who said the plot was only part of a series of planned assassinations of pro-Ukraine defense industry executives across Europe. “The plan to kill ARMIN PAPPERGER, a white-haired goliath who has led the German manufacturing charge in support of Kyiv, was the most mature,” CNN writes, adding that Americans warned Berlin about the plot. AID TO PALESTINIANS: The U.S. will provide another $100 million in aid for Palestinians in Gaza and the occupied West Bank, USAID Administrator SAMANTHA POWER said in a statement today. The funding will support the U.N. World Food Program. USAID said it will provide “logistics support for the safe and efficient delivery” of aid in Gaza, without elaborating further. The U.S. has now dedicated some $774 million in aid to Palestinians since the war began, though distributing the assistance to those in need has been a persistent struggle due to Israel’s ongoing military operation in the territory. A cease-fire deal, which would bolster aid efforts, is still being worked out. Israel Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU today said he’s sending negotiators to Cairo to talk with mediators about the potential deal with Hamas. At the same time, Israeli troops are conducting operations in Gaza City, possibly to pressure Hamas to agree to a deal — while Palestinians refuse to leave the area. AID PIER, WE HARDLY KNEW YE: Speaking of aid efforts, the controversial Gaza humanitarian pier is shutting down “in relatively short order” after months of difficulties in distributing aid in the enclave, Eric and JOE GOULD report. Speaking to reporters today, Sullivan said, “I do anticipate, in relatively short order, we will wind down pier operations” in the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, the Pentagon said in a statement that troops had failed to successfully re-anchor the pier onto the shore of the Gaza Strip due to “technical and weather-related issues” and has not set a new anchoring date. The statements came as Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas) tried to force a Senate floor vote on a resolution under the auspices of the War Powers Act to end the use of the U.S. military for the pier's operations. The Senate defeated Cruz’s effort in a 48-46 vote. HAITIAN HELPING HAND? U.S.-backed Kenyan forces who recently arrived in Haiti to quell violent gangs aren’t making an impact yet, residents say, while local police struggle to figure out how the mission will succeed. Speaking to The Washington Post’s WIDLORE MÉRANCOURT and AMANDA COLETTA about the Kenyan-led mission, one resident said, “Nothing has changed in my life, and I don’t have increased confidence in my security. … I don’t understand why the Kenyans are here.” The local police say they haven’t been looped into plans to restore order: “We are going to be at the forefront, but with what weapons?” one Haitian officer told the Post. “Who will give the orders? How can we defend ourselves? We don’t know anything.” TEHRAN TALKS IN MUSCAT: Iran said today that it is holding indirect nuclear talks with the United States via Oman, according to Reuters. Iran’s acting foreign minister ALI BAGHERI KANI told an Iranian newspaper that “indirect talks are being conducted through Oman but the negotiation process is confidential and its details cannot be recounted.” Bagheri Kani added that the government was working to leave “suitable grounds” for incoming Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN to negotiate. Bagheri Kani’s comments come as Washington has publicly swatted suggestions that it would pursue nuclear talks with Pezeshkian, who ran on a reformist platform. IT’S THURSDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at mberg@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow us on X at @mattberg33 and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @alexbward, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @leehudson, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, @JGedeon1 and @mherszenhorn.
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | | | ORBÁN PLAYS THE SPOILER: Hungarian leader VIKTOR ORBÁN will meet with former President DONALD TRUMP at Mar-a-Lago, our own MERIDITH McGRAW and KETRIN JOCHECOVÁ report, snubbing Biden as both the sitting president and the host of this year’s NATO summit. Orbán’s move comes as he has enraged his fellow Europeans with a self-appointed ‘peace mission’ to end the war in Ukraine. The Hungarian leader, who holds the European council presidency for the next six months, made surprise visits to Moscow and Beijing to meet with Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN and Chinese leader XI JINPING ahead of the NATO summit. It also follows his continued embrace of Trump, despite protests from American officials that he is interfering unduly in U.S. politics. Read: EU fumes at rogue Orbán, but struggles to rein him in by our own BARBARA MOENS TRUMP EYES INTEL SHARING: Trump is considering reducing intelligence sharing with NATO allies if he returns to the White House next year, our own ERIN BANCO reported Wednesday night. As Erin writes, Trump advisers told allied countries the reduced intel sharing would be part of a broader plan to scale back U.S. support and cooperation with the 32-nation alliance. Those plans, shared with European officials in private conversations, have sparked worries as American intelligence sharing has been a vital component of transatlantic security collaboration.
| | | LASER-FOCUS: South Korea will deploy laser weapons systems to take down North Korean drones that have caused security concerns in recent years, Seoul defense officials said today. As The Associated Press’ HYUNG-JIN KIM reports, the country’s Defense Acquisition Program Administration said it will use at least one “Block-I” anti-air laser weapons system by the end of 2024, and more in the coming years. “We face North Korea on our doorstep and its drones pose present threats to us, so that’s why we’ve been aiming to build and deploy laser weapons soon to cope with them,” an agency official told the AP. The system, which can take down small drones, was developed by South Korean company Hanwha Aerospace and costs only $1.50 per shot.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Ramping Up to Meet NATO’s Needs
Lockheed Martin has been steadily ramping production of proven programs like GMLRS, HIMARS and PAC-3 to meet growing demand and advance NATO deterrence. Learn more. | | | | | OH, CANADA: Canada will reach its NATO defense-spending commitment by 2032, Prime Minister JUSTIN TRUDEAU today, our own KYLE DUGGAN reports. The pledge follows months of pointed barbs directed at Canada for failing to say when it would finally meet its pledge — or how. MADE IN UKRAINE: A Northrop Grumman executive said today that the company has signed an agreement to manufacture weapons inside Ukraine, making it the first U.S. company to take the step, our own LEE HUDSON reports (for Pros!). EYES ON THE ARCTIC: NATO member states unveiled two marquee initiatives designed to project influence in the Arctic and compete against Russia and China in the region. As Eric, Kyle and Lee report (for Pros!), the United States, Canada and Finland announced they will band together to produce new icebreaker ships, which are critical to facilitate shipping at northern latitudes. Meanwhile, NATO’s Arctic member states are getting more involved in space to counter Russia's military buildup in the region, both on the ground and in the sky, our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!) report. “The lessons learned from the war in Ukraine is how important space assets are for targeting for communication, navigation,” PÅL JONSON, Sweden’s defense minister, told Matt on the sidelines of the NATO Summit.
| | BIDEN OPPO DOESN’T WAIT ON NATO: House Armed Services ranking member ADAM SMITH (D-Wash.), one of the most senior Democrats to call for Biden to stand down, said other Democrats made the case to hold back until after the NATO summit wraps. But Smith said the issue was far too pressing to wait, and he predicted more Democrats would come out against Biden. It wasn’t just Pelosi: “There were other folks. That was an argument that was presented to me — not by her — and I just felt the matter had sufficient urgency," Smith told reporters. “Team Biden made it clear what their strategy was: ignore the problem, run out the clock, and force the rest of us to live with it," Smith said. "And I felt a certain urgency to upset that strategy." FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — CHEERS FOR STOLTY: More than 40 senators are introducing a bipartisan bill to give outgoing NATO Secretary General JENS STOLTENBERG the Congressional Gold Medal, a measure that is also being introduced in the House. Sens. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.), Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER, Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL and THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) are leading the effort.
| | | |   | | | | | CAN’T STOP WON’T STOP: The Chinese air force has flown fewer unsafe intercepts of U.S. military aircraft in the Indo-Pacific after Biden’s meeting with Xi last year, but hasn’t stopped entirely, said ELY RATNER, assistant secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs. “We’re never comfortable because one of these events is too many, and there continue to be activities in the skies in the Indo-Pacific that are of concern, against U.S. forces that are operating legally, in accordance with international law,” Ratner said at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event today. In the wake of a clash between Philippine and Chinese forces last month, Ratner said Beijing’s “dangerous, coercive behavior against U.S. allies” is still going strong. FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — STOP THE STRIKES: Dozens of anti-war advocacy groups are calling on a group of lawmakers to push harder to stop “illegal, ineffective and deadly” airstrikes in Yemen by introducing a Yemen War Powers Resolution. In a Wednesday letter to Sens. TIM KAINE (D-Va.), CHRIS MURPHY (D-Conn.), TODD YOUNG (R-Ind.) and MIKE LEE (R-Utah), the groups — including Action Corps, Bring Home Our Troops and Peace Action — said they want the lawmakers to rein in unauthorized U.S. strikes by introducing a resolution to remove U.S. participation from hostilities in Yemen, unless Congress authorizes such action. Top U.S. officials have said they believe the Houthi attacks will stop when a cease-fire in Gaza is reached. TACKLING TREN DE ARAGUA: The U.S. unveiled a series of actions to halt the spread of Tren de Aragua, a transnational criminal organization from Venezuela, and hold their members and people associated accountable. The Treasury Department designated Tren de Aragua as a “significant transnational criminal organization,” blocking all property of the group that are in the U.S. The State Department and Justice Department are also offering up to $12 million in rewards for info leading to the arrest or conviction of three Tren de Aragua leaders.
| | — Kenyan President WILLIAM RUTO dismissed all of his cabinet secretaries as protests rage against a controversial tax overhaul plan. — DANIEL PONEMAN has rejoined the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow working on nuclear security and energy issues. Poneman served as deputy Energy Secretary and acting Energy Secretary during the Obama administration and was most recently the president and chief executive officer of nuclear energy company Centrus.
| | — JAMIE DETTMER, POLITICO: Orbán: From dissident to Putin’s Hungarian boyar — KIRSTEN GRIND, The New York Times: Thermonuclear blasts and new species: Inside ELON MUSK’s Plan to colonize mars — ANDRÉS GLUSKI and SUSAN SEGAL, Americas Quarterly: In Venezuela, is this time different?
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9 a.m.: Israel's missile defense engagements since Oct. 7 — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, 9:30 a.m.: Europe's security after the Washington summit — Atlantic Council, 10:45 a.m.: Bolstering transatlantic security and solidarity — Atlantic Council, 11 a.m.: Beyond the summit: Outcomes and the path forward to Ukraine's NATO membership — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Will Iran's new president forge a new foreign policy? — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 2 p.m.: Hollywood goes to NATO: Telling the story of the alliance Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is a big loser every week. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who wins our hearts every day.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: Ramping Up to Meet NATO’s Needs
Lockheed Martin is prioritizing speed, agility and adaptability in its production processes, using digital transformation to ensure customers stay ahead of ready. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
