| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | Presented by the Coalition to Preserve American Jobs | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | SOME GOOD NEWS FOR DEMS — The “inherent contempt” effort against AG MERRICK GARLAND went down in the House this morning after a handful of Republican defections helped Democrats squash the resolution, which would have seen Garland pay fines of $10,000 per day until he hands over audio of President JOE BIDEN‘s special counsel interviews. Four Republicans joined all Democrats to defeat the measure, 204-210, with unexpected GOP absences driving down the vote count, Jordain Carney reports. In a second setback for House Republicans, their plan to pass the fiscal 2025 Legislative Branch spending bill this morning also imploded, failing on a 205-213 vote. As Jennifer Scholtes and Caitlin Emma note, that’s a bad omen for the rest of the GOP’s spending bills, which House leaders want to put on the floor later this month.
|  Allies and aides for President Joe Biden are now doubting his path forward. | Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images | NOW BACK TO THE BAD NEWS — While Biden prepares for his high-stakes post-NATO press conference this evening, there is a simmering split screen between what the Biden campaign is saying in public and what’s going on behind the scenes. In a new campaign memo sent to staffers today, campaign chair JEN O’MALLEY DILLON and campaign manager JULIE CHAVEZ RODRIGUEZ are predictably sticking by Biden, arguing that “winning the ‘blue wall’ states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan is the ‘clearest pathway’ to victory,” AP’s Seung Min Kim and Lisa Mascaro report. That stated emphasis on the “blue wall” is a recognition of a “narrowing” road for Biden, they write, “even as the team insists the Sun Belt states are ‘not out of reach.’” Read the full memo But then there’s this, which will land like a bombshell among those already worried about the president’s standing: Some longtime Biden aides and advisers have “become increasingly convinced that he will have to step aside from the campaign, and in recent days they have been trying to come up with ways to persuade him that he should,” NYT’s Michael Schmidt, Katie Rogers and Peter Baker report. The sources said there are three primary points that they’ll have to convince Biden on: (1) That he cannot beat Trump, (2) that another candidate, like VP KAMALA HARRIS for instance, can do it and (3) that the process to move on if he steps aside would be “orderly and not devolve into chaos.” There’s a similar report from NBC’s Jonathan Allen, Natasha Korecki and Carol Lee, with allies and campaign officials saying “they now see his chances of winning as zero — and the likelihood of him taking down fellow Democratic candidates growing. ‘He needs to drop out,’ one Biden campaign official said. ‘He will never recover from this.’” Separately, NYT reports that the Biden campaign is testing Harris’ polling strength vis-a-vis the president for what is believed to be the first time (a bit of news that Playbook has independently confirmed). However, the sources cited by Reid Epstein, Lisa Lerer, Shane Goldmacher and Maggie Haberman “did not specify why the survey was being conducted or what the campaign planned to do with the results.” Poll position: The new Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll out today has something for both the “Dump Biden” and “Defend Biden” camps. Biden’s detractors will latch on to the 56 percent of Democrats surveyed who say the president should end his reelection bid, with only 42 percent saying he should continue. But Biden and his allies will be buoyed by the finding that the head-to-head matchup against Trump remains a tie at 46 percent, a similar number to an ABC-Ipsos poll from April. The poll was conducted from July 5-9 and carries a margin of error of plus-or-minus two percentage points. Friends like these: If Biden was looking for a well of support on Capitol Hill for reassurance this morning, it’s unlikely to quench his thirst.
- House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES told Punchbowl that he’s “looking forward to concluding his talks with ‘every single’ House Democrat about Biden.” OK, sure … that’s not so bad. But he didn’t stop there: “We'll convene as a leadership team and figure out the next step.”
- Meanwhile, Rep. HILLARY SCHOLTEN — a frontliner Dem from Michigan — became the 10th House Democrat to say Biden should end his reelection bid, saying voters cannot “unsee” what Biden did on the debate stage and called for him to “pass the torch” for the good of democracy, The Detroit News’ Melissa Nann Burke reports.
- And Rep. ADAM SMITH, the top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee and one of the most senior lawmakers to call on Biden to end his reelection bid, explained why he didn;t wait for the end of the NATO Summit to make his feelings known: “Team Biden made it clear what their strategy was: Ignore the problem, run out the clock and force the rest of us to live with it,” he said. “And I felt a certain urgency to upset that strategy.”
But at least one Democrat remains firmly in Biden’s corner: RON KLAIN, the president’s former chief of staff, said in an interview with The New Republic’s Greg Sargent that — age, acuity concerns, and high disapproval ratings aside — that Biden’s message and contrast with DONALD TRUMP will triumph in battleground states. As for calls for another Democrat to step in? “I do think that this isn’t like a soccer game where you just keep substituting players in and out, you know, each half,” Klain said. “Like, we have a nominee who went through a democratic process to become the nominee.” Read the transcript Good Thursday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from the Coalition to Preserve American Jobs: The National Taxpayer Advocate recently called out IRS for slow rolling Employee Retention Credit processing, “The IRS’ delay in processing these legitimate claims is hurting the very businesses for whom Congress created the ERC.” Small businesses relied on the government’s word when they kept employees on payroll during the pandemic. The IRS is failing to do its part, resulting in a backlog of 1.4 million claims. Urge IRS to lift the moratorium and process the backlog of ERC claims. | | | | | 7 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other central bank policymakers could be poised to move ahead with an interest rate cut before the November election. | Susan Walsh, File/AP Photo | 1. INFLATION NATION: Inflation in the U.S. slowed more than expected in June, “boosting the odds that Federal Reserve Chair JEROME POWELL and other central bank policymakers will move ahead with an interest rate cut before the November election,” Sam Sutton writes. The details: “Prices fell by a tenth of a percentage point last month — the first time that’s happened since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020, the Labor Department reported in the Consumer Price Index Thursday. Prices climbed by 3 percent on an annual basis, the lowest in a year.” What Biden will be touting: “The slowdown could provide ammunition for Democrats’ case that the economy is healthier than many voters believe. Taken with a recent labor market cooldown — which Powell said this week is not ‘a source of broad inflationary pressures for the economy’ — it also provides the Fed with a strong case to lower interest rates at the central bank’s Sept. 17-18 meeting.” 2. DESPOT DISPATCH: “Trump to meet with Orbán in Florida after NATO summit,” by Meridith Mcgraw and Ketrin Jochecová: “Former President DONALD TRUMP and Prime Minister VIKTOR ORBÁN of Hungary will meet on Thursday following the NATO summit in Washington, just one week after Orbán met with Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN in Moscow, two people familiar with the arrangements confirmed. The meeting will take place at the former president’s private club and home at Mar-a-lago in Palm Beach, Florida.” Mood music: “Donald Trump is Unfit to Lead,” by the NYT editorial board: “Instead of a cogent vision for the country’s future, Mr. Trump is animated by a thirst for political power: to use the levers of government to advance his interests, satisfy his impulses and exact retribution against those who he thinks have wronged him.” 3. TRUMP’S EXPANDING MAP: Biden’s disastrous debate performance is forcing uncomfortable and unexpected questions for Democrats in a host of blue states, like New Hampshire (which hasn’t voted red for a president since 2000), Maine (which hasn’t gone fully red since 1988), New Mexico (which has picked the GOP nominee only once in the last eight elections) and Minnesota (where voters haven’t done that since 1972). The president’s problem, though, is perhaps most punctuated in New Hampshire, Lisa Kashinsky reports, where “Trump came within half a percentage point of winning in 2016 — and where a post-debate poll now shows him erasing the double-digit lead Biden held heading into 2024.” NYT’s Jenna Russell also reports from New Hampshire, taking stock of the freakout: “In interviews this week, most voters said that they had already made up their minds — and that the debate, held last month in Atlanta, had not done much to sway them. For many Biden supporters, the prospect of another Trump presidency is enough to drive them to the polls.” But, but, but: “Among voters inclined to waver, Mr. Biden’s vulnerability was apparent. His margin for error with some voters appears to be slim; one more alarming misstep could drive them away.” There’s a similar sentiment in Michigan, where AP’s Joey Cappelletti, Isabella Volmert, Marc Levy and Jonathan J. Cooper report from Saginaw: “In interviews this week, many voters said they still support Biden. But they also expressed concern that a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy could cause a lot of Democratic voters to stay home, handing the race to Republican Donald Trump.”
| | | | Understand 2024’s big impacts with Pro’s extensive Campaign Races Dashboard, exclusive insights, and key coverage of federal- and state-level debates. Focus on policy. Learn more. | | | | | 4. DEPT. OF COUNTER-PROGRAMMING: Democrats are “planning a show of force in Milwaukee” as Republicans descend on the city for next week’s convention, NBC’s Mike Memoli reports. While they are eager to take on Trump, Democrats are also making plans to decry the agenda he has set out for the party platform and beyond, particularly focusing on the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025. What you can expect: “The Democratic National Committee and the Biden campaign say they are planning a six-figure paid visibility effort in Milwaukee during the RNC, with daily news conferences featuring Democratic surrogates and advertising around the city blasting Trump and the governing blueprint put forward by conservative allies.” 5. THE NEW GOP: Abortion isn’t the only issue driving a wedge between wings of the Republican Party. WSJ’s Greg Ip writes that the economy could be the more “consequential division” as Trump and his allies seek a second go at the White House. “On one side is a pro-business libertarian wing that backs low taxes, free trade and international openness. On the other is a growing contingent of conservatives skeptical of big business, ambivalent about tax cuts and vocally supportive of tariffs. While both wings back Trump, who straddles this divide, they have different priorities should Trump win this fall’s election and Republicans retake control of Congress.” 6. DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS: China earlier today accused NATO leaders gathered in D.C. this week “of seeking security at the expense of others and told the alliance not to bring the same ‘chaos’ to Asia, a reflection of its determination to oppose strengthening ties between NATO members and Asian nations such as Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” AP’s Ken Moritsugu reports from Beijing. “The statement by a Foreign Ministry spokesperson came a day after NATO labeled China a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war against Ukraine.” 7. AUTO PILOT: “Biden Offers $1.7 Billion to Help Factories Build Electric Vehicles,” by NYT’s Jack Ewing: “The federal government will grant car and auto parts factories in eight states $1.7 billion to begin producing electric vehicles and other clean energy technology, the Biden administration announced on Thursday. Among the 11 recipients will be a Jeep factory in Belvidere, Ill., that the brand’s parent company Stellantis closed last year. The money will allow the plant to reopen and produce electric vehicles, officials said, restoring almost 1,450 jobs.”
| | | | SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, our newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW. | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | SPOTTED: Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) having coffee at Le Pain Quotidien in Eastern Market this morning. Pic OUT AND ABOUT — Dan Schwerin, Nick Merrill and Corey Ciorciari, all partners at Evergreen Strategy Group, threw a fundraiser for Maggie Goodlander last night at the Chevy Chase home of Schwerin and his wife YJ Fisher’s. SPOTTED: Ben and Tamara Wittes, Lona Valmoro, David Shimer, Stephen Paduano, Miriam Lipper, Ben Krauss and Shana Mansbach, Opal Vadhan and Ed Meyer. — Whole Foods Market held its first ever Supplier Showcase at the South Capitol Hill Store on Tuesday followed by a reception catered by D.C. chef Spike Mendelsohn. SPOTTED: Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas), Jason Buechel, Stephanie Chen Ferragut, Ann Marie Hourigan, Nicole Davia, Jori Fine, Matt McAlvanah and Mike Glymph. — The Institute for Legislative Analysis held its annual award presentation on Tuesday at the Conservative Partnership Institute for the Limited Government Index. SPOTTED: Sens. Mike Braun (R-Ind.), Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) and Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Reps. Gary Palmer (R-Ala.), Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), Eli Crane (R-Ariz.), Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.), Debbie Lesko (R-Ariz.), Tom McClintock (R-Calif.), Aaron Bean (R-Fla.), Kat Cammack (R-Fla.), Cory Mills (R-Fla.), Bob Good (R-Va.), Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.) and Harriet Hageman (R-Wyo.), John McGuire, Brian Chisholm, Matt Morgan, Jim Renacci, Bill Dotson, Ryan McGowan, Fred McGrath, Bryan Axler, Bram Browder, Ed Corrigan, Jim DeMint, Jeff Glendening, Glyn McKay, Alex Hinson and Kaitlin Owens. — CPEAR hosted a massive salon dinner for Democratic members of Congress to discuss the STATES Act (and the timely rescheduling comment period) at the UPS Townhouse yesterday evening. SPOTTED: Sens. John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Reps. Val Hoyle (D-Ore.), Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.), Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), Glenn Ivey (D-Md.), Rob Menendez (D-N.J.), Donald Norcross (D-N.J.) and Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-Fla.), Tom Daschle, John Mason, Marvin Figueroa, Jason Ortiz, Adrian Rocha, Nell Reilly, Cara Moon, Jon Taets, James Bolton, Anthony LaMorena, Naveen Parmar, Shashrina Thomas, Charlie Panfil, Grace Teeters, Chanse Jones, Shanita Penny, Tate Bennett, Michael Williams, Yaw Thompson and Alekhya Tallapaka. — SPOTTED at the Financial Technology Association’s Congressional “Future of Finance” Reception at La Collina yesterday evening: Reps. Bill Foster (D-Ill.), Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.), Young Kim (R-Calif.), Bryan Steil (R-Wis.), Mark Ratner, Devina Khanna, Jacob Glasser, Cody Hollerich, Alex Cisneros, Penny Lee, Tom Manatos, Ali O’Donnell, Matt Cameron, Jae Jang, Lisa Peto, Charlie Schreiber, Chris Brown, Brian Anderson, Eric Ellman, Ed Hill, Danielle Aviles Krueger, Megan Guiltinan, Taylor Griffin, Avery Jaffe, Bennett Richardson, Jenn Rust, Yolanda McGill, Nick Stowell, Elizabeth Connolly, Phil Cronin and Raoul Bhavnani. — SPOTTED at a gala hosted by Glamour and Paid Leave for All at Auto Shop in Union Market yesterday evening: Lisa Ann Walter, Reps. Rosa DeLauro, (D-Conn.) and Ayanna Pressley (D-Mass.), Samantha Barry, Jocelyn Frye, Dawn Huckelbridge, Natasha Pearlman, Ai-jen Poo, Mini Timmaraju, Charlotte Clymer, Sali Christeson, Dee Poku, Dan Koh, Rebecca Lee Funk, Donie O’Sullivan and Crystal Carson. TRANSITIONS — Steven Levitsky is joining the Council on Foreign Relations as a senior fellow for democracy. He is the David Rockefeller professor of Latin American studies, professor of government and director of the David Rockefeller Center for Latin American Studies at Harvard. … Sarah Mars Bowie is now a VP at BDP. She previously was a VP at Hill & Knowlton and is a FINN Partners alumna. … Erin McBride Taylor is now a senior media manager for the National Federation of Independent Business. She most recently was comms director for Rep. David Rouzer (R-N.C.) and is a Steve Scalise alum. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath. Correction: Yesterday’s Playbook PM misspelled the name of Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.).
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