| | | | |  | | By Eugene Daniels and Rachael Bade | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | ON YOUR RADAR — From the National Hurricane Center: “MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO … The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide … Tampa Bay 8-12 ft.”
|  A woman looks at charred vehicles burned in the Oct. 7 cross-border attack by Hamas militants outside the town of Netivot, southern Israel, Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. | Ariel Schalit/AP | ONE YEAR LATER — We’re now 365 days out from Hamas’ brazen and shocking attack that saw more than 1,200 Israelis murdered and hundreds more taken into captivity — the worst attack on Jews since the Holocaust and the single deadliest day in Israeli history. It’s hard to understate the impact of that day’s events on not only Israel, but on the Middle East writ large and on our own politics back home in the U.S. The attack unleashed a still-ongoing reprisal campaign aimed at uprooting Hamas that has left more than 40,000 dead in Gaza and millions displaced. It now expanded into a multi-front conflict against Iran and its proxies, and the full-blown regional war that Western diplomats have strained to avoid for decades now seems eminently possible. What’s abundantly clear right now is that a diplomatic path away from further escalation is hard to see at the moment — and is unlikely to appear before Election Day. And for a full appreciation of just how thoroughly the attack upended American foreign policy, we highly recommend this just-posted piece from Robbie Gramer and Jonathan Lemire that details all the ways President JOE BIDEN’s ambitious international agenda has been overshadowed, or worse. As one senior administration official tells them, “It became our foreign policy priority whether we liked it or not.” Today, however, is primarily a day of remembrance and reflection … IN ISRAEL: The anniversary of the Hamas attack was marked this morning with vigils, ceremonies and protests, many of them starting at 6:29 a.m. — the moment when the attacks began. At the site of the Nova music festival, where some of the most horrific violence took place, the families of the victims gathered with Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG, AP’s Tia Goldenberg and Melanie Lidman report: “After briefly playing the same trance music that was blared during the festival, hundreds of family members and friends of the victims stood for a moment of silence. One woman’s piercing wail broke the silence as booms echoed from the fighting in Gaza, just a few kilometers away,” the write. Families of hostages remaining in Gaza, meanwhile, “gathered near Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU’s Jerusalem residence and stood during a two-minute siren, replicating a custom from the most solemn dates on the Israeli calendar.” IN THE U.S.: Here’s a spin through how key U.S. leaders are commemorating the somber anniversary … — BIDEN: At the White House later this morning, the president and first lady JILL BIDEN will be joined by a rabbi to light a yahrzeit candle, a Jewish mourning tradition for anniversary of a death. This morning, Biden issued a long statement that made note both of the horrors of Oct. 7 and also of the ensuing suffering in Gaza. “On this solemn anniversary, let us bear witness to the unspeakable brutality of the October 7th attacks but also to the beauty of the lives that were stolen that day,” he said, adding, “I believe that history will also remember October 7th as a dark day for the Palestinian people because of the conflict that Hamas unleashed that day.” — VP KAMALA HARRIS: Later today at the Naval Observatory, Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will plant a pomegranate tree, a Jewish symbol of hope and righteousness, in memory of the attacks. Harris released her own statement this morning, one that called the Hamas attack “pure evil” and pointedly reiterated that her “commitment to the security of Israel is unwavering” while also saying she is “heartbroken over the scale of death and destruction in Gaza.” She is expected to speak briefly to reporters on those themes after the event today, a White House official told us last night. Emhoff will later recite a prayer at the American Jewish Committee’s National October 7th Memorial Commemoration in Washington. — Former President DONALD TRUMP: Trump will begin his day in NYC, where he is expected to visit the Brooklyn tomb of MENACHEM MENDEL SCHNEERSON, the much revered Lubavitcher Rebbe — a customary pilgrimage for politicians seeking support from ultra-Orthodox Jews. He’ll then travel to Florida, where he will give remarks at an anniversary remembrance event at his Doral golf resort. — CONGRESS: Speaker MIKE JOHNSON will participate in and speak at a candlelight prayer vigil in Las Vegas, where he will be campaigning today with GOP House challengers. He’ll also attend and participate in a program with the Republican Jewish Coalition, a person familiar tells our colleague Olivia Beavers. Also in the House: Rep. JOSH GOTTHEIMER (D-N.J.) will today unveil a bipartisan resolution with Reps. LOIS FRANKEL (D-Fla.), YOUNG KIM (R-Calif.) and JOE WILSON (R-S.C.) commemorating the anniversary. Some 130 other members of Congress are co-sponsoring the legislation, which calls on Hamas to “immediately and unconditionally surrender and to release the hostages.” Read the resolution Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL in a statement this morning praises Israel’s “unshakeable resolve” and declared his support for its “determined response” to the Hamas attack: “The stakes of Israel’s fight against the terrorists surrounding it are as clear today as they were one year ago.” Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Banning IVF, abortion, and many types of contraception. Creating a national pregnancy registry. Criminalizing porn. Making you pay more for healthcare and housing. Sound like a nightmare? No - it's Project 2025. And if Trump is elected, it will be the MAGA movement's dream that the corrupt Supreme Court justices made come true. But we can vote to stop them – learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | SCOTUS IS BACK — It’s the first Monday in October, which means the highest court in the land is back to rock our little world. The Supreme Court has so far agreed to hear 40 cases this term, and, unlike the past few years, neither abortion or affirmative action are on the docket. But that doesn’t mean the justices are staying away from consequential topics, Josh Gerstein writes this morning: “The cases on tap do include some politically sensitive disputes, like a fight over a Tennessee law banning hormone treatments for transgender minors. There’s also an argument set for Tuesday on the Biden administration’s effort to ban so-called ‘ghost guns,’ which are assembled from kits purchased over the internet and are often untraceable. Another case tests a new Texas law that requires visitors to porn websites to provide identification proving they’re over 18.” And there’s a big reason why they might be keeping their docket slim: “They had to make space for the possibility that there would be election cases that they would have to address,” Georgetown Law’s IRV GORNSTEIN tells Josh. “Even if it turns out there are none, I think that they have to have that on their mind.” What could the court have to decide? Potential cases, Josh writes, could deal with topics ranging from the handling of mail-in ballots in Pennsylvania to decisions by Georgia’s activist election board to a possible BUSH v. GORE redux. THE WEEK — Tomorrow: Harris travels to NYC for appearances on ABC’s “The View,” the “Howard Stern Show” and CBS’ “Late Show.” Biden travels to Milwaukee for an infrastructure event and to Philadelphia for a fundraiser with Sen. BOB CASEY (D-Pa.). Michigan Senate candidates MIKE ROGERS and ELISSA SLOTKIN debate. … Wednesday: Trump holds campaign events in Scranton and Reading, Pennsylvania. Arizona Senate candidates RUBEN GALLEGO and KARI LAKE debate. … Thursday: September CPI inflation numbers released. Trump addresses the Detroit Economic Club. Univision hosts town hall event with Harris in Las Vegas. Biden departs for Berlin, beginning a six-day overseas trip. Maryland Senate candidates ANGELA ALSOBROOKS and LARRY HOGAN debate. … Friday: Nobel Peace Prize winner announced. Harris campaigns in Arizona.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies to gut the checks and balances that protect American freedoms.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … One is the first woman elected House speaker. The other is the first woman elected VP and possibly president. Both hail from the same cradle of political ambition, San Francisco, but as the S.F. Chronicle’s Shira Stein and Joe Garofoli report, Rep. NANCY PELOSI (D-Calif.) and Harris have never been especially close. Both were “toughened by San Francisco politics, which can be personal and occasionally mean,” they write. “But Pelosi and Harris come from different political ‘families,’ had different sources of money and ran on different political tracks — Pelosi as a fundraiser and then through House leadership, and Harris as a prosecutor.” They are in lockstep now, though more out of determination to beat Trump than any personal bond. Related read: “How San Francisco became a launching pad for the most powerful women in politics,” by the L.A. Times’ Jessica Garrison and Hannah Wiley At the White House Biden and first lady JILL BIDEN will mark the anniversary of Oct. 7 with a yahrzeit candle lighting, joined by a rabbi, in the Blue Room at 11:45 a.m. Biden will get a Hurricane Helene/Hurricane Milton briefing at 1:45 p.m. Harris and second gentleman DOUG EMHOFF will mark the anniversary at 4 p.m., delivering remarks and planting a memorial tree at the VP’s residence. Harris will travel to NYC afterward. On the trail Trump will participate in an Oct. 7 remembrance event at Trump National Doral Miami at 6 p.m. Minnesota Gov. TIM WALZ will travel to Seattle.
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Donald Trump arrives to speak during a campaign rally at Dodge County Airport, Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024, in Juneau, Wisconsin. | Julia Demaree Nikhinson/AP | ON THE TRAIL — Trump yesterday declared that he might set tariffs on Mexican vehicles as high as 200 percent “if we have to” — double the level he has dangled previously, Reuters’ James Oliphant and David Shepardson report. His remark at a rally in Juneau, Wisconsin, is also in line with the 200 percent threat he made recently against John Deere if it moves production to Mexico. If he followed through, such massive tariffs could give domestic manufacturers a boost but inflate prices for consumers. Harris made her much-anticipated appearance on Alex Cooper’s “Call Her Daddy” podcast, where the VP got personal about her family, encouraged listeners to tune out their haters, and talked in depth about abortion. She needled Trump’s claim that he’ll be a “protector” for women by noting that he paved the way for Roe v. Wade’s repeal. Harris also shot back at Arkansas Gov. SARAH HUCKABEE SANDERS’ suggestion that she lacks humility because she’s a stepmom instead of a biological mom: “This is not the 1950s anymore,” Harris said, per Megan Messerly. “Families come in all kinds of forms.” And she dismissed Sen. JD VANCE’s (R-Ohio) comments about “childless cat ladies” as “mean-spirited.” RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE DEMOCRACY WATCH — ProPublica’s Doug Bock Clark and Heather Vogell go deep in gaming out how a new Georgia rule allowing county boards to omit whole precincts from certification could upend the election. Across 12 precincts in three counties where local officials have lent credence to election fraud claims, 8,000 Democratic votes could be at risk. Democrats worry this is part of a yearslong plan to turn nonpartisan boards into Trump backers that could seize on discrepancies to toss out votes in targeted Democratic areas. Challenges to the state rule are before a judge now. Related read: “‘Fight for your life’: Georgia election workers prepare for election under cloud of threats,” by ABC’s Olivia Rubin, Tonya Simpson, Tomas Navia, and Cho Park BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — In pivotal Pennsylvania, the prospect of delayed vote counts, court fights over the election and conspiracy theories about fraud has left many in the state feeling frazzled and exhausted, WSJ’s Mariah Timms and Siobhan Hughes report. BIG MONEY — Trump is increasingly leaning on billionaire oil executives for campaign cash, Bloomberg’s Jennifer Dlouhy, Bill Allison and Mitchell Ferman report. The industry has risen from his 10th-biggest contributor in 2020 to No. 4 this year. AD IT UP — The Harris campaign hasn’t featured Jan. 6 much in its ads. But a new digital spot in swing states leans on special counsel JACK SMITH’s recently publicized filing to warn that “next time, there will be no one to stop” Trump, as Mia McCarthy and Holly Otterbein scooped. The ad, called “Bombshell” THE DECIDERS — “Native Americans in Arizona could swing the election. Activists are pushing them to vote,” by the L.A. Times’ Faith Pinho in Phoenix: “Democrats are pouring into Arizona to woo new and undecided voters in Native American communities by Monday, the last day to register. … 2024 marks the 100th anniversary of the Indian Citizenship Act.” SPOILER ALERT — In Reno, Nevada, WSJ’s Jimmy Vielkind and Cam Pollack find that some former backers of ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. are now switching to Trump, though they don’t love their options. RACE FOR THE SENATE CASH DASH — Ally Mutnick has an interesting breakdown of Senate Republicans’ financial map, which includes some unusual quirks: Pennsylvania has seen more than twice as much pro-GOP spending as the open-seat Michigan race, while Arizona and Nevada have seen less spending than Texas and even Maryland. That’s a result of individual candidates’ strengths (and wealth), donors’ fickle preferences and the party’s overall struggle to keep pace with Democratic fundraising. RACE FOR THE HOUSE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Oregon Democrat JANELLE BYNUM’s congressional campaign raised $3.4 million in the third quarter. That’s a big haul in this swing seat — the campaign says it’s the largest single-quarter total ever for a House or Senate race in Oregon. POLL POSITION FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — A new GOP poll for the Congressional Leadership Fund finds Rep. NICK LaLOTA (R-N.Y.) in pretty good shape: He leads Democrat JOHN AVLON 49 percent to 40 percent. Avlon’s name recognition remains fairly low. The polling memo HOW THE SAUSAGE GETS MADE — “How One Polling Decision Is Leading to Two Distinct Stories of the Election,” by NYT’s Nate Cohn: “A methodological choice has created divergent paths of polling results. Is this election more like 2020 or 2022? … This divide is almost entirely explained by whether a pollster uses ‘weighting on recalled vote.’”
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | BEYOND THE BELTWAY
|  Florida Governor Ron DeSantis speaks during a press conference at the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, Florida, on September 26, 2024. | Chandan Khanna/AFP via Getty Images | STURM UND DRANG — America is far from recovered from the last devastating hurricane, but another one may be on the way. Even as Biden sent another 500 troops to North Carolina with help with Hurricane Helene response, Florida Gov. RON DeSANTIS was working on plans for Hurricane Milton, which rapidly grew stronger yesterday, Arek Sarkissian reports from Tallahassee. If the storm makes landfall in Florida sometime midweek, more than 6 million people could be evacuated. In the worst-case scenario of a direct hit of Tampa Bay, the metro area could see a 10-foot storm surge. To have a second disaster so quickly would tax FEMA and federal resources, WaPo’s Maxine Joselow and Douglas MacMillan report. The political fallout from one or both storms remains to be seen. Already, Univision has rescheduled its Trump town hall in Miami to Oct. 16. But for many voters digging out from Helene in North Carolina and Georgia, politics is pretty far down the priority list, AP’s Makiya Seminera reports from Vilas, North Carolina. More top reads:
- Look who’s back: An early coalition of groups in NYC may come together to try to stop ANDREW CUOMO from running for mayor, Nick Reisman scooped. Other party leaders are hoping AG TISH JAMES could jump in if incumbent ERIC ADAMS resigns — and that she’d undercut Cuomo politically. James would be an especially popular pick for allies of Gov. KATHY HOCHUL, who don’t want James to primary her in 2026.
- Megatrend: “Police seldom disclose use of facial recognition despite false arrests,” by WaPo’s Douglas MacMillan, David Ovalle and Aaron Schaffer: “A Post investigation found that many defendants were unaware of the technology’s role in linking them to crimes, leading to questions of fairness.”
| | | | A message from United for Democracy:   | | | CONGRESS PLANNING FOR 2025 — With Delaware Democrat SARAH McBRIDE likely to be elected the first transgender member of Congress, the House Equality Caucus is working to make sure she’ll be welcomed and possibly protected by extra security, NOTUS’ Oriana Gonzalez reports. McBride tells her that she’s not fazed by the prospect of being a lightning rod, that she’s used to security risks — and she wants to work with Republicans nonetheless. JUDICIARY SQUARE FOR THOSE KEEPING TRACK — “Tajikistan nationals with alleged ISIS ties removed in immigration proceedings, U.S. officials say,” by CBS’ Nicole Sganga: “Four months later, after being detained in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities, three of the men have already been returned to Tajikistan and Russia … following removals by immigration court judges. Four more Tajik nationals – also held in ICE detention facilities – are awaiting removal flights to Central Asia, and U.S. officials anticipate they’ll be returned in the coming few weeks. Only one of the arrested men still awaits his legal proceeding.” AMERICA AND THE WORLD MINI-MAGA MISSING — Remember NIGEL FARAGE, a U.K. pal of Trump whom the former president dubbed “Mr. Brexit”? Nope? Neither did most of the Trump fans at the Butler rally over the weekend, our British POLITICO colleague Emilio Casalicchio reports. Farage appeared at Trump rallies in 2016 and 2020 and is a regular MAGA cheerleader on Fox News. But he’s stuck at home unable to campaign for the Republican candidate in 2024, because he was elected to the U.K. Parliament for the first time in summer and faced allegations within weeks of neglecting his district. Another trip to the U.S. might not go down well.
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Mike Rogers is facing new residency questions. Donald Trump’s Wall Street tower may be in financial trouble. Curtis Bashaw had a scary moment at his debate with Andy Kim. Al Cárdenas voted for Kamala Harris. George Stephanopoulos, Robin Roberts, Michael Strahan and other big TV anchors could have pay cuts coming. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — PBS and Retro Report have a new four-part docuseries premiering tomorrow night, “Citizen Nation,” which follows teenagers around the country participating in a civics competition. It’ll also be streaming on Amazon Prime and YouTube. In an advance clip from the first episode shared with Playbook, Virginia state Sen. Schuyler VanValkenburg’s son Caden navigates life as a politician’s kid. Watch it here SPOTTED: former HUD Secretary Julián Castro and WaPo’s Silvia Foster-Frau, his girlfriend, having brunch Saturday at Le Grande Boucherie. OUT AND ABOUT — SPOTTED at a party toasting departing WSJ reporters James Grimaldi, Anne Marie Chaker, Ian Talley and Andrew Ackerman on Saturday afternoon at Hellbender Brewing Company: Jack Gillum, Tim Hanrahan, Tarini Parti, Stephanie Armour, Phred Dvorak, Sadie Gurman, Paul Kiernan, Natalie Andrews, Molly Ball, Mark Anderson, Nancy Youssef, Will Mauldin, Jess Bravin, James Hohmann and Annie Linskey, Alicia Caldwell, Katy Stech Ferek, Brett Forrest, Gordon Lubold and Greg Ip. TRANSITIONS — Kevin Liao is now comms director for Minnesota first lady Gwen Walz as she hits the campaign trail. He’s an LA-based Democratic consultant. … Doug Nation is joining the American Petroleum Institute as a policy analyst for tax, trade and accounting issues. He previously was deputy chief of staff and legislative director for Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.). … Jessica Stallone is joining the Treasury Department as a senior spokesperson. She previously was director of public affairs for Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security. … … Hudson Institute is adding Mary Kissel and Joel Rayburn as senior fellows. Kissel is EVP and senior policy adviser at Stephens Inc., and a State Department and WSJ editorial board alum. Rayburn is a former U.S. special envoy for Syria, Bill Hagerty alum and longtime U.S. Army officer. … Emily King is joining Rich Feuer Anderson as VP. She previously was member services director for the House Energy and Commerce GOP and is a Cathy McMorris Rodgers alum. … Cole Randle is now head of strategic engagement at Heart Aerospace. He is a Biden/Harris advance and Obama White House alum. WELCOME TO THE WORLD — Lauren (Edmonds) Devilbiss, assistant VP of external comms at Synchrony and a POLITICO alum, and James Devilbiss, grants accounting manager at Children’s National Hospital, on Sept. 26 welcomed Alice Martha Devilbiss, who came in at 8 lbs. Pic … Another pic — Arielle Patrick, chief comms officer at Ariel Investments and an Edelman alum, and Aaron Goldstein, partner at Macellum Capital Management, welcomed a baby girl on Sept. 24. Pic … Another pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Bill Foster (D-Ill.) and Rich McCormick (R-Ga.) … Kate Berner … David Hayes … Tom Perez ... NYT’s Charlie Savage … retired Lt. Col. Oliver North … Katrina vanden Heuvel … Chris Krueger of Cowen … AARP’s Bill Sweeney … Stephen Jackson of the Ripon Society … Roll Call’s Tom Williams … DOJ’s Michael Rosengart … Todd Weiler … Amanda Fleming of Public Citizen … USTelecom’s Allison Remsen … Mark Orlowski … Jen Hengstenberg … Herald Group’s Robert Brooks … CNN’s Elizabeth Hartfield … GWU’s Sean Aday … Erick Ford of Stevens and Lee Public Affairs … POLITICO’s Orlando Navarro Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from United for Democracy: Project 2025 is a policy blueprint created by the far-right Heritage Foundation meant to gut America’s system of checks and balances. Their goal? Take control of the government… and our lives.
If MAGA extremists win this fall, they will pursue Project 2025 policies like banning IVF and setting up a national abortion and pregnancy registry to force states to report abortion data. While raising taxes on middle-class Americans, they’ll also remove many environmental protections so companies can pollute our air, soil, and water with known cancer-causing toxic chemicals.
You think the Courts will save us?! LOL. The six MAGA Supreme Court Justices are already implementing some of Project 2025’s worst ideas.
In fact, they already deemed a president immune from all criminal acts they deem “official,” and stripped women of their reproductive freedom.
Learn more at Project2025.wtf, before it’s too late.
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