| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  One thing is clear: Washington still sees its partnerships with Israel as worth the hassle now and in the future. And that could set the tone for the rest of President Joe Biden’s term in office. | Ben Curtis/AP | With help from Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric The U.S.-Israel relationship has been tumultuous since Hamas militants attacked on Oct. 7, 2023. But much of Washington today emphasized its support for Israel in the face of worries that the U.S. could get ensnared in a wider war in the Middle East between Israel and its enemies. At an event at the Israeli embassy on Monday, national security adviser JAKE SULLIVAN reinforced U.S. support for Israel. Sullivan warned of the “further threat Iran and its proxies” poses to Washington and Israel in an event at the Israeli embassy commemorating the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks and honoring the hostages still being held by Hamas. And Sullivan in his remarks mourned the deaths of civilians in the fighting in the Middle East while lauding Israel’s military victories against Iran and the militant forces it backs, including Hamas and Hezbollah. “The challenge going forward is to turn tactical battlefield wins into a strategy” that secures peace and Israel’s future, he said. His remarks came as Israel weighs how to mount a counterattack against Iran following a massive ballistic missile attack last week. Israeli Ambassador MICHAEL HERZOG, speaking at the same event, said that Iran “would never contemplate such an attack were it not for Oct. 7 and their perception that Israel is weakened and vulnerable.” Herzog added Israel would continue “dismantling the ring of fire that Iran has built around us.” The embassy event brought together officials and Israel’s supporters across Washington for a somber commemoration of the Hamas attacks one year ago that unleashed a year of fighting and suffering across the region. NatSec Daily was in the room for Sullivan and Herzog’s remarks. Also in attendance were deputy national security adviser JON FINER, White House Middle East coordinator BRETT McGURK, British Ambassador KAREN PIERCE, Ukrainian Ambassador OKSANA MARKAROVA and the chairs of the congressional foreign policy committees, Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.) and Rep. MICHAEL McCAUL (R-Texas). Much ink has already been spilled on the ups and downs between President JOE BIDEN and Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU over the last 365 days, as the White House has struggled to restrain Israel’s conduct of military operations in the Gaza Strip and limit strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. And that’s not to mention the social and political upheaval that the war wrought here at home. Massive campus demonstrations and an organized campaign of opposition to U.S. support for Israel’s war effort in key states helped sow the seeds for Biden’s decision to step down from the top of the Democratic ticket this July. But one thing is clear: Washington still sees its partnerships with Israel as worth the hassle now and in the future. And that could set the tone for the rest of Biden’s term in office. It also will likely affect other global issues that Biden’s successor will have to tackle. As your lead NatSec Daily author and JONATHAN LEMIRE reported this morning, one year of constant crisis response in the Middle East has stretched thin the resources and attention of the Biden administration’s foreign policy team. That includes the Middle East crisis, the war in Ukraine, and trying to confront China on the world stage — to say nothing of other global hot spots like Venezuela or the war in Sudan that receive a fraction of the attention. It’s all starting to take its toll, as some administration officials and lawmakers question how (or whether) the Biden team in its final months in office can do everything, everywhere, all at once.
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Block 4 modernization is the most significant evolution of F-35 capabilities to date, including increased missile capacity, advanced electronic warfare capabilities and improved target recognition. Learn more. | | | | | FIGHTING ON THE BEACHES: Commemorations of the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks aside, it’s clear that Israel is not lowering its focus on its foe Hezbollah, launching new strikes and actions today against the militant group in Lebanon. Israel announced today that it would soon launch operations on Lebanon’s southern coastline. And the Lebanese government said today that Israel launched 120 strikes against targets in the country’s southern regions. But less clear is the timing of Israel’s promised response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack last week. Current Israeli actions appear more to be continuations of existing pushes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, as opposed to new efforts to exact revenge on Iran. Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations DANNY DANON said today that officials are debating when and where to attack Iran, but that such an attack will occur. “It will happen," Danon said. "It will take place.” ISRAEL’S DAY AFTER FOR GAZA: Israel’s top diplomat in Brussels is telegraphing that his country wants to wrap up military operations in Gaza, and that Israel has some ideas cooking for how the enclave will be governed. In an interview with our own NICHOLAS VINOCUR, Israeli Ambassador to the European Union HAIM REGEV is claiming that Israel’s military operations have reduced Hamas’ offensive capabilities such that they anticipate implementing a new governance structure for the war-torn enclave in the coming year. That’s surprising on multiple fronts: Israel has pledged to continue military operations for the foreseeable future, even as it launches attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah. And while the Israeli military continues to take out high-ranking leaders in the militant group’s ranks, Hamas has also gained new recruits in the wake of the offensive in Gaza. Just today, Hamas launched rockets into Israel as Israeli society commemorated the anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks in a show of its continued reach. And it’s unclear what this planned “governing structure” would look like. Regev did not give many details about that, and Israeli officials have in the past ruled out the idea of Israel administering the territory. Other countries have also refused to step in as intermediaries. Regev also ruled out the Palestinian Authority as a replacement, arguing it lacks the legitimacy to govern the territory effectively. TENSIONS AMONG FRIENDS: Kyiv’s relationships with some of its western neighbors are under strain. Our own WOJCIECH KOŚĆ and VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reported this morning that Kyiv and Warsaw are facing challenges in their partnership against Russia owing to a bloody history between the neighboring peoples. During World War II, Ukrainian armed groups sought to ethnically cleanse Poles in lands now administered by Kyiv. The history remains politically fraught for Warsaw as it blocks Ukraine’s bid to enter the European Union. Ukraine has not acknowledged responsibility for the killings. And over the weekend, Slovakian Prime Minister ROBERT FICO vowed he would personally block any effort to admit Ukraine into NATO, adding to the list of allies squeamish about bringing Kyiv into the transatlantic alliance structure. AXIS ALIGNMENT: Mark your calendars — Russian President VLADIMIR PUTIN and Iranian President MASOUD PEZESHKIAN are convening in person this week in the face of escalating Middle East tensions. The two leaders will meet in Turkmenistan while both are in attendance for the commemoration of the birth of a famous Turkmen poet in the Central Asian country’s capital of Ashgabat. It’s the first time the two leaders have met since Pezeshkian took office, and the encounter comes as Iran and Russia have deepened their military and diplomatic alignment in recent years. Moscow has also supported Tehran following Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel last week. IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | OCT. 7’S DIGITAL IMPACTS: Our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity wrote this morning, the disinformation and misinformation war between pro-Israeli and pro-Palestinian groups has only grown over the year since Hamas’ attack on Israel. Pro-Hamas disinformation efforts have included manipulated images and faked news reports mimicking Western media outlets, along with distribution of old videos to mislead social media users about the success of Iranian attacks against Israel. Many of those efforts have focused on audiences in the Middle East. Pro-Israel groups, mainly targeting U.S. audiences, have widely dispersed false allegations, including a widely-shared but unsubstantiated report of Hamas beheading 40 babies during the Oct. 7 attack that was repeated by Biden. And foreign governments, including Israel, Iran, China and Russia are deeply invested in spreading this misinformation and disinformation around the internet. “Bad actors are capitalizing on these events to promote narratives that undermine Western influence and exacerbate societal divisions at a time when societies are distracted by multiple crises,” McKENZIE SADEGHI, the AI and foreign influence editor at misinformation tracker NewsGuard, told Weekly Cybersecurity. “The combination of ongoing conflicts and political turmoil has provided a much more fertile ground compared to a year ago.”
| | INDO-PACIFIC REPAIR REQUESTS: The Pentagon is stepping up its efforts to build a network of supply and repair sites for U.S. military equipment housed throughout the Indo-Pacific. As our friends at Morning Defense report (for Pros!), the Department of Defense has already secured agreements with Australia and Japan as part of its Regional Sustainment Framework. That policy wants to avoid sending ships and aircraft back to the U.S. for minor repairs and keep U.S. gear operational and as close as possible to their units in the Pacific while getting tune-ups and patches. The efforts, which could see Washington ink more deals with allies in the region like South Korea, come as the U.S. seeks to boost its own military readiness in China’s backyard and Beijing steps up provocations in its neighborhood towards friends of Washington like the Philippines, South Korea and Japan.
| | | 10/7 MESSAGING GAPS: Republican and Democratic lawmakers put out statements condemning the brutality of the Oct. 7 attacks and expressed solidarity with Israel and Jewish people experiencing heightened anti-semitism. But there were still key differences that highlight how both parties on Capitol Hill are navigating the ensuing conflict. Republicans made sure to mention Iran and the Tehran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen in their statements. And some, like Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Idaho), criticized the Biden administration for slowing arms shipments to Israel. One notable omission across the spectrum: mentions of Palestinian civilian casualties in Gaza. Palestinian civilians were not discussed in statements or social media posts from Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL, Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER or Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. House Minority Leader HAKEEM JEFFRIES did voice support for a surge in humanitarian assistance for Palestinian children and civilians and re-upped calls for a negotiated cease-fire in Gaza. Progressives who have been critical of the administration on civilian casualties in Gaza, Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-Wash.) mentioned both the Oct. 7 atrocities and the humanitarian toll of Israel’s war effort in the Gaza Strip in social media posts today. But even some progressive critics of the Biden administration’s approach to Israel’s war effort didn’t directly mention Palestinians in their comments. Rep. RO KHANNA (D-Calif) focused a post on X around deceased Israeli-American hostage HERSH GOLDBERG-POLIN, who was killed by Hamas militants in August as tensions further deepened between Hamas and Israel following the killing of the group’s leader, ISMAIL HANIYEH.
| | | |   | | | | | RESSA DEMOCRACY WARNINGS: Nobel Laureate MARIA RESSA is warning that the outcome of the U.S. election could be a make-or-break moment for democracy around the world. In an appearance on the POLITICO Tech podcast, Ressa told our own STEVEN OVERLY that the U.S. election is poised to be a “tipping point” in the fight for democracy over autocracy. And she warned that tech giants and social media companies aren’t siding with proponents of democracy. “I would say Big Tech right now is on the side of autocrats and dictators,” she said. “It enables their rise. It breaks down our shared reality.” Ressa’s comments come as the world experiences the last major electoral contests of the “global year of elections.” The U.S. election on Nov. 5 is poised to potentially alter the direction of U.S. foreign policy and remaining votes in Moldova and Georgia are emerging as key challenges to Russian influence in the former Soviet bloc.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — TIMOTHY RANSTROM has been named senior manager of federal government relations at China-based drone manufacturer DJI, our DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was senior adviser to House Ways and Means Committee Ranking Member RICHARD NEAL (D-Mass.). — JESSICA STALLONE is joining the Treasury Department as a senior spokesperson. She previously was director of public affairs for the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security. — SOPHIE MIRVISS is joining the Defense Department as chief of staff to the deputy assistant secretary of Defense for the Middle East. She previously was Democratic staff director for the House Foreign Affairs Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia Subcommittee. — CALLY BARRY is now senior communications adviser to the Task Force Investigating the Assassination Attempts of DONALD J. TRUMP. She is also communications director for Rep. MORGAN LUTTRELL (R-Texas). — The Hudson Institute is adding MARY KISSEL and JOEL RAYBURN as senior fellows. Kissel is executive vice president and senior policy adviser at Stephens Inc., and a State Department and Wall Street Journal editorial board alum. Rayburn is a former U.S. special envoy for Syria and longtime U.S. Army officer who previously worked for Sen. BILL HAGERTY (R-Tenn).
| | — GAL BECKERMAN, The Atlantic: A naked desperation to be seen — LISA GOLDMAN, New Lines Magazine: Searching for hope in the wake of October 7 — LUJAYN, MOHAMMED R. MHAWISH, AHMED ABU ARTEMA, AND HANI ALMADHOUN, The Nation: ‘I have watched my people suffer in ways that would shock the world’
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: At the helm of innovation: Advancing naval capabilities — National Endowment for Democracy, 10 a.m.: The struggle against authoritarian influence in the Western Balkans — Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, 12 p.m.: Book discussion on “The Ukraine War and the Eurasian World Order — Atlantic Council, 1:30 p.m.: The future of U.S. strategy toward Iran: A bipartisan roadmap for the next administration — Wilson Center, 3 p.m.: CLAUDIA SHEINBAUM: What's next for US-Mexico relations — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3:30 p.m.: Defining success: Does the U.S. need an 'End State' for its China policy? — Brookings Institution and the Council on Foreign Relations, 4 p.m.: The future of the Middle East: Issues at stake in the 2024 election Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is spreading disinformation about us on the internet. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is trying to fact-check her and clear our names.
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