Monday, October 7, 2024

The crypto executive who could soon be running the SEC

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Oct 07, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Declan Harty

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QUICK FIX

Wall Street’s top cop is headed for a clash with the trendy online brokerage firm Robinhood.

The regulator could be picking a fight with its next boss, too.

Robinhood Chief Legal Officer Dan Gallagher is emerging as a leading contender to head the Securities and Exchange Commission should Donald Trump win back the presidency, according to a dozen former top regulators, lobbyists and securities lawyers.

“He'd be a natural choice," one former senior SEC official told MM.

But Gallagher — a onetime SEC commissioner who is known for his affability and political chops — may find himself sparring with the agency first.

The SEC is weighing a lawsuit over Robinhood's swelling cryptocurrency business in a case that would mark the latest salvo in Chair Gary Gensler's crackdown on the $2 trillion market. The SEC is looking into whether Robinhood is operating an unregistered broker-dealer and clearing agency in the crypto markets. Charges are not guaranteed, but if the agency does sue, the resulting legal battle could thrust a new and awkward spotlight onto Gallagher — just as the race for the chairmanship heats up.

For his part, Gallagher has a message for the SEC: Don't do it.

“It’s a dog of a case,” he told MM. Robinhood, Gallagher said, offers trading in a fraction of crypto tokens compared to others that have hundreds on their platforms. And the company doesn’t have any crypto lending or staking products, he said.

“We’ve been forgoing revenue for the company by not going hog wild listing coins, and I think that puts us in a very, very unique position,” Gallagher said. “Shooting at the good guys is a really bad policy.”

An SEC spokesperson declined to comment.

Eight years ago, a rotating cast of characters from the financial, corporate and legal worlds swung through Trump Tower as they sought to join the then-incoming president's administration. Now, as evidenced by Gallagher's brewing candidacy, the revolving door between government and industry appears primed to start spinning once again if Trump wins.

“This is the name of the game: Get the fox in the henhouse,” said Richard Painter, who served as chief ethics lawyer for President George W. Bush.

Other names floating around K Street as potential SEC chairs under Trump include former Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Chris Giancarlo, who is known online as "CryptoDad"; former SEC General Counsel Robert Stebbins, now a partner at the law firm Willkie Farr & Gallagher; and current SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, who occupies a Republican seat on the agency's five-person commission.

Yet Gallagher’s ascendancy to the chair has long been a matter of when, not if, for some Republicans.

“Dan would be great,” Rep. Bill Huizenga (R-Mich.) told our Jasper Goodman following a House Financial Services Hearing where Gallagher testified last month. “I've had a great relationship working with him, even when we disagreed on some stuff.”

“Ultimately, you want someone who's thoughtful, experienced, and not just ideologically politically driven,” the Michigan Republican said. “That's been, I think, the problem with Gensler."

Gallagher as a commissioner blasted the package of rules enacted in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. He called for a sweeping review of trading in the U.S. stock market and was early to raise concern about the SEC’s internal courts, which have since been declared unconstitutional in certain cases by the Supreme Court. He was also a regular on Capitol Hill, briefing lawmakers on the wonky area of securities law.

If Trump did pick Gallagher, the Robinhood executive could face a contentious confirmation process. Democrats have long been wary of industry officials taking over federal regulators, and Robinhood has attracted a fair amount of congressional scrutiny over the years. (Remember GameStop — the bizarre market phenomenon of 2021 when Robinhood had to cut investors off from buying more shares in the beleaguered video game retailer’s stock, drawing the ire of lawmakers across Capitol Hill?)

But Gallagher argues that was then. The company has since overhauled its compliance and risk-management programs, he said. And as for any revolving-door concerns, he says having experience both in and out of government is a good thing.

Whether Gallagher would want to leave Robinhood is unclear. He told MM that he loves his job and that it’s “an honor to have my name included in any discussion of who may be the next SEC chairman.”

Make no mistake, though, Gallagher has clear issues with the SEC’s direction. Just ask him about crypto. He told MM that if he had been chair in the last few years, there would be tailored rules on the books already, as the industry has long been seeking, offering “a path forward for at least a baseline registration system” for crypto exchanges and brokers. And even then, Gallagher believes there would still need to be legislation.

“I would have done things differently,” he said. “I’ve known Gary for a long time and have a lot of respect for Gary, but, on this one, I disagree with him.”

IT’S MONDAY — And Election Day is 29 days away. Who’s your pick for Trump 2.0 SEC chair? Give me a shout: dharty@politico.com. And as always, if you’ve got tips for Sam, send them to ssutton@politico.com.

 

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Driving the Week

Monday … Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman speaks at the Independent Bankers Association of Texas’ annual convention at 1 p.m.

Tuesday… Fed Governor Adriana Kugler gives remarks at the European Central Bank Conference on Monetary Policy in Frankfurt at 3 a.m. … The American Bankers Association holds its 2024 Financial Crimes Enforcement Conference in Arlington, Va., running until Thursday … The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research holds a virtual discussion on the Federal Reserve at 2 p.m. … Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speaks at Davidson College at 7:30 p.m.

WednesdayGensler speaks with former SEC Commissioner Robert Jackson Jr. at an NYU Law event at 11:45 a.m. … Jefferson speaks at the Charlotte Economics Club at 12:30 p.m. … FOMC minutes are released at 2 p.m. … CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham speaks at the Northwind 2024 Disruptive Technologies Invitational Forum at 7 p.m. … Crypto conference Permissionless kicks off in Salt Lake City. Speakers include Reps. Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) and Ritchie Torres (D-N.Y.), Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Pham.

Thursday … Fed Governor Lisa Cook speaks at the Women for Women Summit in Charleston at 9:15 a.m. … The SEC holds a closed meeting at 2 p.m.

Friday … The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, the FDIC, OCC and the Conference of State Bank Supervisors hold its Community Bankers Symposium in Chicago at 9:30 a.m. Speakers include Bowman and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee.

Vance ties illegal immigration to housing woesFrom Katy O’Donnell: “Sen. JD Vance is lashing out at what he calls ‘one of the most significant drivers of home prices in the country’: undocumented immigration.”

The Republican vice presidential candidate is, as Katy reports, “exaggerating — but he has a point. … Immigrants do drive up demand for housing, exacerbating supply shortages and boosting prices, research shows. But there are far greater forces behind the affordability crisis, including historically low levels of construction in the years after the 2008 financial crisis.”

“Still, it’s a powerful case to make just weeks before the election because it merges two issues that American voters say are among their biggest concerns: out-of-reach housing prices and the wave of undocumented immigration in recent years.”

The Economy

Ain’t cheap — The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget published new estimates this morning for how Trump and Kamala Harris’s economic proposals would affect the U.S. debt levels over the next decade, Sam reports.

The baseline for Harris: The vice president’s platform would extend 2017 tax cuts for those making less than $400,000, expand child and earned income tax credits and provide new sources of assistance for first-time homeowners and working families. It would add $3.5 trillion to the debt between now and 2035.

The baseline for Trump: Trump’s pledge to extend the 2017 tax cuts and slash the corporate rate to 15 percent for domestic manufacturers would add $10 trillion to annual budget deficits by 2035. And while his plans to impose universal tariffs and boost energy production could offset some of that, CRFB’s base estimate still projects a Trump agenda would add $7.5 trillion of debt during that period.

A new call from big oil — Oil companies have a seemingly unlikely message for Trump: don’t completely gut the Inflation Reduction Act. The WSJ’s Collin Eaton and Benoît Morenne report: “In discussions with former President Trump’s campaign and his allies in Congress, oil giants including Exxon Mobil, Phillips 66 and Occidental Petroleum have extolled the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Many in the fossil-fuel industry opposed the law when it passed in 2022 but have come to love provisions that earmark billions of dollars for low-carbon energy projects they are betting on.”

FEMA ready on Helene claims — From Jasper: “FEMA’s National Flood Insurance Program has enough financial resources to pay out claims it expects to receive following the devastating flooding brought by Hurricane Helene, the agency said Friday.”

“‘NFIP policyholders can rest assured that the NFIP is prepared to pay every penny owed for covered flood losses,’ Jeff Jackson, the flood insurance program’s interim senior executive, said in a statement.”

 

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2024 ELECTION

A VC pivot for the VP  — Venture capitalist Ben Horowitz and his wife, Felicia, are planning a “significant donation” to support Vice President Kamala Harris.

The Silicon Valley giant’s financial support for Harris is an unexpected turn, landing just months after Horowitz threw his weight behind Trump. In an email that he later posted on social media Friday, Horowitz wrote, “Felicia and I have known Vice President Harris for over 10 years and she has been a great friend to both of us during that time.”

Tesla CEO Elon Musk, meanwhile, was as behind Trump as ever over the weekend. During a brief appearance at a rally alongside the GOP candidate, Musk told a crowd of people in Butler, Pennsylvania, that Trump “must win to preserve democracy in America,” our Irie Sentner reports.

And JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon has not endorsed Trump, despite what Trump may say, Bloomberg reports.

Political gambling is live — Following a dramatic and winding legal saga, Americans can — at least for now — bet on who will win the White House next month through a regulated financial exchange, your host reported Friday. And more markets are coming. Kalshi co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted on X over the weekend that the company has 25 new election markets coming this morning, including on several Senate races, which state will be the “tipping point” in the presidential election and who will win the popular vote.

Reality check… as CoinDesk notes, the trading on Kalshi and Interactive Brokers’ markets is only a fraction of the $1.2 billion that has been placed on the presidential race at Polymarket, the offshore prediction market.

On Wall Street

All backup systems go — Wall Street is ready to go in case of an emergency. In a statement shared with MM, SIFMA Managing Director Charles DeSimone said more than 90 entities participated in a successful industry-wide business continuity test over the weekend, underscoring the financial industry’s capacity “to operate through a significant emergency using backup sites, recovery facilities and backup communications capabilities across the industry.”

Jobs report

Austin Bonner is now special assistant to the president for economic policy. She most recently was deputy U.S. chief technology officer for policy at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. — Daniel Lippman

 

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