News: POLITICO's Global Translations: Who counts as a democrat in 2021?

Friday, February 26, 2021

POLITICO's Global Translations: Who counts as a democrat in 2021?

Feb 26, 2021

Please send your tips and thoughts to rheath@politico.com and follow me on Twitter

JOIN GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS THIS WEEK: Ryan will be joining BBC World Service's "Weekend" show from 1.30 a.m to 3.30 a.m. ET Sunday Feb. 28. It's a friendlier schedule for readers from the U.S. West Coast, in Europe and virtually anywhere but Washington D.C.

Tune in today for the second day of the Denver Democracy Summit. We're debating existential threats to democracy, the scale and nature of democratic erosion, and where U.S. difficulties fit into the global league table.

� INDIA'S DEMOCRACY IN QUESTION: Washington Post has heads turning with its editorial board position that India no longer deserves the democracy label. The opinion comes on the heels of the 10-day detention of Disha Ravi, a 22-year-old climate activist, for alleged sedition after she accessed a Google Doc used by Greta Thunberg. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi retains 80 percent approval and is engaged in a long-term project of Indian revival, the question is what price minorities will pay for his Hindu majoritarianism and intolerance of dissent.

PROTESTS GROWING IN MYANMAR: Anti-coup protesters are continuing to flood the streets, including in Myanmar's south-eastern city of Dawei. Facebook expanded a ban on pages linked to Myanmar's military, barring advertising from related entities.

UNPACKING ALEXEI NAVALNY — WITH HIS CHIEF OF STAFF

Users of the invite-only app Clubhouse were treated to a rare chance to hear in-depth commentary on the goals and tactics of Alexei Navalny's movement, from his chief of staff Leonid Volkov, Thursday afternoon. Global Translations joined the fray.

THE CONTEXT: The chat (moderated by tech entrepreneur Raheel Khursheed ) came two days after Amnesty International took the dramatic step of declassifying Navalny as a "prisoner of conscience." Nothing's actually changed regarding Navalny's detention by the Putin government, but Amnesty has decided that past nationalist comments by Navalny are not to its liking. Having drawn everyone's attention to their position, the non-profit swiftly told everyone to stop paying attention and focus on its efforts to secure Navalny's release �. Critics say Amnesty fell victim to a Kremlin influence campaign, a claim the organization rejects.

Is he Nelson Mandela, or Aung Sun San Suu Kyi? Masha Gessen explores the evolution of Navalny's nationalism. "My idea is that you have to communicate with nationalists and educate them," Navalny told the celebrated Polish journalist Adam Michnik in 2015.

Meanwhile, Russian comedians Vovan and Lexus prank-video-called Amnesty Head Julie Verhaar on the topic, and over the course of 14 minutes she admits the decision was a disaster. Just to throw more spice into the mix, the Geneva Summit for Human Rights and Democracy has named Navalny the recipient of its 2021 Moral Courage Award.

THE JUICE: Volkov is living in Vilnius, Lithuania, and said his experience there is proof that if Lithuania can be democratic today, so can Russia.

So, what would a Navalny-led Russia aim to be? "Canada multiplied by Lithuania," Volkov said. "Our goal is for Russia to become a proper, regular, European country once again." It will take time for Russia to stop being "a protectorate of China" and start being "partner of Europe," he said.

China Realpolitik: "China treats Russia only as a source of natural resources," he said.

Talking about a revolution: While the Navalny team doesn't rule out political surprises, Volkov said "there is a high probability Putin will stay in the Kremlin until he dies." He ruled out a violent revolution, but said revolution of some kind is needed: because there is no chance for people to defeat Putin constitutionally: "Putin did everything to make that impossible," said Volkov. So, "logically" it will need to be changed in another way "but we will do everything to make this revolution peaceful."

What would Putin out-of-office look like: "Putinism will be gone when Putin is gone" because his "allies hate each other and are stuck together only because of Putin." If Putin were to be removed from office, "there is a possibility he will be offered some immunity" which "might prevent some blood being shed."

How to solve a problem like Crimea: Seven years (today) after Russia invaded Ukraine, there are "no easy answers," Volkov said, meaning the region needs "a completely new legal framework." The current constitutional "deadlock" means that traditional approaches would involve violence, throwing "millions of people" out of their homes or "taking their passports." Volkov floated Andorra — a border region principality jointly governed by Spain and France — as proof that innovative governance is possible, though he stepped back from suggested Russia and Ukraine share Crimea.

DENVER DEMOCRACY SUMMIT HIGHLIGHTS

Former secretary of State Madeleine Albright: "Democracy is fragile but resilient." But she warned: "People want to eat and vote, so democracy has to deliver" economically. Michael Abramowitz, president of the non-profit Freedom House, said "the situation is grim. Every year for 15 years there are more countries experiencing declines than improvements" in democracy. He urged people skeptical that democracy is eroding to see it "not just [as] a human rights problem, it's a U.S national security problem."

DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING — COUNTRIES TO WATCH IN 2021: Milada Vachudova, a specialist in democratization in post-Communist Europe, has her eyes on Poland. Andrés Velasco, a former finance minister of Chile now running LSE's public policy school, said that "not every populist is a future dictator, but the seeds are often there." He counts Nicaragua and El Salvador as well on the way to autocracy, Bolivia and Ecuador as existing in a grey zone, and Mexico and Brazil as facing the temptation of populism.

IDEA OF THE DAY — INTERGENERATIONAL DEMOCRACY: David Orr, emeritus professor at Oberlin College, and Annika Hedberg of the European Policy Center, told Global Translations it is time for a form of "intergenerational democracy" in the face of climate crisis. That would provide institutional space for the rights of people who are not here with us yet, but whose lives will be dramatically shaped by our climate policies over the next few decades.

HUNGARY FOR VACCINES: Tapping into European, American, Chinese and Russian vaccines, Hungary is now promising everyone who signs up for a shot that they will be vaccinated by Easter, which falls over April 2 -5. Hungary is one of the countries turning to China and Russia in the absence of sufficient U.S. and European vaccines. Ryan's story here.

REALITY CHECK — THE EU ISN'T ACTUALLY RESTRICTING VACCINE EXPORTS: After a week of terrible headlines and accusations of hypocrisy over its insistence on blocking vaccines from leaving Europe, it turns out the EU hasn't blocked a single shipment. The EU's Chief Trade Enforcement Officer Denis Redonnet told the European Parliament that his office approved all 112 requests to export vaccines, from 24 countries including U.K., Japan, Canada and Mexico. Redonnet said that 92 "vulnerable countries" were completely exempt from the scheme but— just to confuse things — Israel is on the list of vulnerables, even though it's vaccinated 90 percent of its citizens.

UNICEF signed a Covid vaccine supply agreement with AstraZeneca, for 170 million doses, destined for 85 countries.

BIDEN MEETS WORLD

HARRIS GETS CRASH COURSE ON FOREIGN POLICY: Vice President Kamala Harris is carving out a niche on global health, cybersecurity and taking meetings President Biden doesn't have time for. Foreign officials, keen to know if she will be the next President and future of the Democratic party are mostly happy to oblige, report Eugene Daniels and Natasha Bertrand.

Case in point: The globally-minded CityLab conference has Harris speaking next week, alongside Biden's Mr. Infrastructure, a.k.a. Pete Buttigieg , and billionaire global climate wizard Michael Bloomberg. Livestream link.

IRAN — NUCLEAR STOCKPILE ENRICHED TO 20 PERCENT, REPORT: Iran has added 17.6 kilograms of uranium, enriched up to 20 percent , to its stockpile according to an International Atomic Energy Agency document seen by specialist U.N. news service Passblue. "These are serious developments but not surprising ones," said Atlantic Council's Barbara Slavin.

U.S airstrike: The strike against an Iran-backed militia in Syria , was retaliation against three separate rocket attacks against U.S. forces in Iraq last week. The strike was ordered by President Joe Biden, and carried out by the U.S. alone.

US-Israel strategic forum: President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will revive a forum from the Obama administration for high-level talks and sharing intelligence regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.

SAUDI ARABIA: CANDIDATE BIDEN VS. PRESIDENT BIDEN

An unclassified summary of intelligence findings into the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi is expected to be released in coming days (produced by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence). That report will increase pressure for Saudi sanctions. In the meantime, there's a gap between what Joe Biden said as candidate and what he's saying as President.

Candidate Biden: On the campaign trail, Biden said the Saudis will be made to "pay the price" for Khashoggi's murder and that he would "make them in fact the pariah that they are." He saw "very little social redeeming value in the present government in Saudi Arabia."

President Biden: In a call with King Salman, the White House said Biden "affirmed the importance" the US places on "universal human rights and the rule of law" and "the longstanding partnership between the United States and Saudi Arabia", and the threat posed to Saudi Arabia by pro-Iranian groups.

US GAINS ALLIES ON UIGHUR GENOCIDE: The Dutch Parliament has joined Canada's in labeling Uighur atrocities including forced labor and mass rape, a genocide. Mike Pompeo made the designation in his final weeks as secretary of State, and his successor, Antony Blinken, agrees. The New Yorker has an "immersive feature" taking you " Inside Xinjiang's Prison State," and China is hitting back.

GLOBAL RISKS AND TRENDS

DATA DAY …

LEADER APPROVAL RATINGS JUMPING AROUND: Italy's new Prime Minister Mario Draghi joins Morning Consult's global leader approval tracker with a 31-point net approval rating: positive numbers a Western leader rarely sees.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is also up six points as the government begins administering the Russian Sputnik V vaccine. U.K.'s Boris Johnson and Spain's Pedro Sanchez also enjoyed six-point bumps, but both remain in negative territory.

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro (-6 net approval) and Australia's Scott Morrison (+21 net approval) both suffered seven-point drops. Morrison is fumbling a growing #MeToo scandal at the Australian Parliament and among his ministerial team.

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE TRENDS: Morning Consult is also tracking daily consumer confidence daily for insights into global economic recovery. In Europe, the U.K. (strong vaccination rates) and France (easing of lockdown) have seen rapid improvements in consumer confidence in February. Germany's is lagging: it's got the worst of both worlds via a tough lockdown and slow vaccination. China, Japan and Russia have returned to pre-pandemic confidence levels, and Australia is outpacing it's early 2020 numbers. The laggards are American and Brazilian consumers.

SOFT POWER, RANKED: The United States dropped five places (to sixth), allowing Germany to claim first place, and Japan second. China dropped to eighth. New Zealand was the fastest-rising nation – propelled by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's personal popularity and the nation's suppression of coronavirus, and is now in 16th spot in Brand Finance's Global Soft Power Index.

GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDEX: Food security declined for the second year in a row according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, after having improved every year since 2012 to 2019. While the top seven slots go to European countries, overall North America is the top performing region.

Covid stresses are providing an indicator of the food security weak spots likely to be exposed by further climate change. The most vulnerable populations in each country are severely exposed to both risks. Food security problems stretch across low, middle and high income countries, with China's growing reliance on food imports set to be the next major source of food security debate.

JOBS RECOVERY SPOTLIGHT

SPACE: THE NEW FRONTIER TO ENERGIZE AMERICA'S WORKFORCE: Tim Chrisman makes the case — "for the first time in decades skills, from manufacturing to repair, from metalworking to mining, will be needed … to make advanced materials like graphene; the factories to make space-qualified electronics; the machine shops to build rockets; and the skills to repair and maintain new homes and habitats in space. No longer will space be the playground of governments and the rich. It will be a place the American worker may unleash their potential and build the future."

BIDEN'S $15 MINIMUM WAGE CUT FROM $1.9 TRILLION RESCUE PACKAGE: White House spokesperson Jen Psaki described President Biden as "disappointed" but determined to find other ways to move forward with a wage hike. "No one in this country should work full time and live in poverty," she said. Democrats don't yet have a plan B.

The new landing zones:

— A $10 to $12 hourly rate, indexed to inflation, that more than 10 Republicans could get behind, beating filibuster threats. That might require a condition Democrats baulk at: using E-verify, the software that blocks employment of undocumented immigrants.

— Penalize big companies that don't pay a $15 minimum wage, by taking tax breaks from them, and offering small businesses new incentives to hit $15. That's backed by Sen. Bernie Sanders.

GLOBETROTTERS

SUMMER IN EUROPE: EU leaders can't agree on how to implement "vaccine certificates" (passports) intended to limit international travel in Europe to those with confirmed vaccinations. French President Emmanuel Macron told an EU leaders summit Thursday "I will not accept a system that conditions access to this or that country on a certificate. Our young people won't have been vaccinated by the end of June," he said.

BRAIN FOOD

UNDERSTANDING CHINA FROM NEW ANGLES AND VOICES: Suggestions from China reporter Melissa K. Chan ...

Joanna Chiu's book China Unbound: A New World Disorder is available for pre-order. The Black China Caucus offers a directory of experts. Worth checking out: Daouda Cissé, an expert on China's political economy and Bob Wekesa in South Africa who examines China-Africa relations. Alaba Ogunsanwo has also looked at decades of Nigeria-China relations.

Barbados-based Rasheed J. Griffith produces the "China in the Caribbean" podcast. Natalia Cote Muñoz, now at the State Department examines China-Latin America relations. Spanish journalist and investigator Juan Pablo Cardenal spent a decade in China and Asia, and recently published this report on Chinese Communist Party outreach to political parties in Latin America. Martha Roldós has investigated China's activities in Ecuador, as has Oliver Stuenkel in Brazi. Ananth Krishnan of The Hindu writes an India China newsletter.