IMMUNITY IDOL — In a decision that could have major reverberations for the 2024 campaign, a three-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals today ruled that DONALD TRUMP is not immune from prosecution for crimes he’s alleged to have committed as president, Kyle Cheney and Josh Gerstein report. Trump will appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court, where the big question will be whether five justices grant a stay. But the decision from a mixture of Democratic- and Republican-appointed judges “is a major win for special counsel JACK SMITH,” our colleagues write, even though it took longer than some advocates wanted. The 57-page opinion takes a legal sledgehammer to Trump’s main arguments, ruling that presidential immunity against civil suits does not include criminal prosecution or apply to former presidents. That could pave the way for the federal criminal election subversion case against Trump to proceed. “At bottom, former President Trump’s stance would collapse our system of separated powers by placing the President beyond the reach of all three Branches,” Judges KAREN HENDERSON, FLORENCE PAN and MICHELLE CHILDS write in one striking passage. “For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump.” Trump allies warned that the ruling could trigger a series of political reprisals: “If this becomes the norm would a Trump DOJ prosecute [BARACK] OBAMA for droning an American?” DONALD TRUMP JR. posted on X. More on Trump’s courtroom troubles: “How using the 14th Amendment against Trump went from a ‘pipe-dream fantasy’ to the Supreme Court,” by CNN’s Marshall Cohen … “Pro-Biden super PAC set to spend up to $40M amplifying Trump’s legal woes,” by NBC’s Matt Dixon EVERYTHING IS DEAD, PART II — What if Washington ends the week with all its immigration and foreign aid efforts in the trash bin? Here’s the latest: The big supplemental: When even Sens. THOM TILLIS (R-N.C.) and JOHN THUNE (R-S.D.) are jumping ship on the big bipartisan deal to crack down on immigration, send aid to Ukraine and more, you know that this bill has become essentially radioactive for Republicans (at least for now). Sen. TED CRUZ (R-Texas), meanwhile, called for Senate Minority Leader MITCH McCONNELL to go. Impeaching DHS Secretary ALEJANDRO MAYORKAS: The margin is going to be extremely tight on House Republicans’ impeachment vote tonight, as Reps. KEN BUCK (R-Colo.) and now TOM McCLINTOCK (R-Calif.) are both opposed. Rep. MIKE GALLAGHER (R-Wis.) voiced concerns in a conference meeting today, and Rep. MARIA ELVIRA SALAZAR (R-Fla.) blew CNN’s Manu Raju a kiss when asked how she’d vote. Rep. DEAN PHILLIPS (D-Minn.) is coming back from the campaign trail to vote for the first time in nearly two months, and with House Majority Leader STEVE SCALISE out for cancer treatment, this will be a squeaker for Speaker MIKE JOHNSON. A handful of other Republicans are still undecided, and impeachment is now “on the verge of collapse,” Jordain Carney and Olivia Beavers report. Attempting to sway his colleagues, House Homeland Security Chair MARK GREEN (R-Tenn.) today called Mayorkas a “reptile with no balls.” Johnson’s Israel-only bill: This, too, is “on the brink of collapse,” per CNN, as House Democratic leaders came out sharply against it and the GOP’s right flank rebels as well. So … what next? As a policy matter, the Plan B options will gain some clarity in the hours and days ahead. But politically, the counterintuitive GOP stampede away from a conservative immigration bill could scramble the presidential election. President JOE BIDEN, for now, doesn’t seem to be giving up hope on the supplemental bill, which he’s expected to defend in public remarks shortly (though he’s already over an hour late). But if Biden can flip the script and start blaming Republicans for not acting to solve the humanitarian crisis at the southern border, that messaging — along with improving economic sentiment — would mean that “for the first time since the 2022 midterms, Mr. Biden has an unmistakable political opening,” NYT’s Nate Cohn writes. (If Biden doesn’t benefit, on the other hand, that could signal that his true political weakness is simply his advanced age.) We’re already seeing that framework start to materialize. “Will the House GOP vote with the Border Patrol to secure the border, or with Donald Trump for more fentanyl?” White House spokesperson ANDREW BATES blasted out in a memo this morning, while House Minority Whip TOM EMMER (R-Minn.) was challenged by Steve Doocy on Fox News over the Border Patrol union’s support for the bill. Good Tuesday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at eokun@politico.com.
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