News: 08/11/23

Friday, August 11, 2023

How to dissect the market’s DNA for smarter trading

MACD.

Bollinger Bands.

Stochastic oscillators.

A lot of traders swear by indicators like these.

But they all have one very important thing in common…

They lag behind price action.

In reality, there's only one indicator that actually leads price movement…

And can tip you off to a move before it happens.

That indicator?

Volume.

See, the truth is that volume is the fuel that drives market movement…

And when you have the right tools to dissect and understand what volume is doing…

Well, it's like tapping into the very DNA of the market.

So if you're ready to see why countless traders around the world rely on Hawkeye's proprietary, volume-based suite of indicators to power their trading…

Then click right here to watch a free training video and see exactly how it works…

And how it can help you reach new levels in your own trading!

To your success,

Anthony S.
Energy Expert at Big Energy Profits

team1@hawkeyetraders.com
bigenergyprofits.com

Call us: (888) 233-8598

DISCLAIMER: * Futures, stocks, and spot currency trading have large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures, stocks, and forex markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This website is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures, stocks or forex. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this website. Past performance of indicators or methodology are not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC Regulation 4.41 These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

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Imran Amed’s Weekly Briefing: 📖 Tapestry Playbook

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW TODAY: SATURDAY, AUGUST 12, 2023

LONDON — The recent wave of fashion dealmaking shows no signs of slowing down as smaller players look to scale up to compete with behemoths LVMH and Kering. This week, it was accessible luxury group Tapestry's acquisition of rival Capri Holdings — owner of the Michael Kors, Versace and Jimmy Choo brands — that took the industry by surprise.

The transaction values Capri at $8.5 billion, a 55 percent premium on the company's three-month average share price before the deal or 9x adjusted EBITDA. But this is far below the EBITDA multiples we have seen recently in the luxury sector. Capri is disproportionately exposed to aspirational customers in the US, who have pulled back on spending. So while Tapestry's chief executive officer Joanne Crevoiserat may be positioning the post-merger entity as "a global luxury house," this is more aspiration than reality on both dimensions.

Revenues remain weighted towards the US: The enlarged group — which includes Tapestry's existing brands Coach, Kate Spade and Stuart Weitzman — will have more of a global footprint when the transaction completes sometime in 2024, but today more than 60 percent of combined revenues are still generated in the Americas — mostly the US. By contrast, LVMH and Kering, whose revenues are more evenly distributed across the globe, benefit from geographic diversification, which helps to even out economic ups and downs in different parts of the world. Tapestry will need to find a way of growing its business in Europe, as well as emerging markets in South East Asia and India.

Positioning is more 'accessible luxury' than 'pure luxury': The combined group delivers more than $2 billion in operating profit, but at around 16 percent, its margins are much lower than pure luxury groups like Kering and LVMH, which deliver 26 percent in operating margins and far below industry leader Hermès at more than 42 percent. Cost synergies of around $200 million will help, but ultimately Tapestry will have to deliver stronger profitable top-line growth in order to realise its brands' full potential.

Here's my playbook for Tapestry's three new brands:

→ READ MORE

Here Are More Top Picks From Our Analysis of Fashion, Luxury and Beauty:

1. What Zimmermann Did Right. This week, the Australian label's founders and private equity backers sold a majority stake to Advent International in a deal valuing the business at just over $1 billion at a time when others in the accessible luxury space have struggled to find buyers. Marc Bain examines how Simone and Nicky Zimmermann have achieved this milestone.

2. Explainer: How Russia's Wartime Fashion Market Works. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been devastating for businesses in Kyiv and changed the dynamics of the fashion industry in Moscow more profoundly than anyone expected early last year. Tamison O'Connor wrote a very interesting explainer breaking down how things have changed. The impact of Western sanctions has been significant, but hasn't completely cut off the availability of international brands in Russia. Meanwhile, the crisis has created new opportunities for local players and fashion companies from China and Turkey looking to fill the void.

3. What Really Happens on a Tarte Influencer Trip. Our intrepid reporter Malique Morris went along on one of the beauty brand's notorious influencer trips. But this time the trip was for 13 ordinary customers and their plus-ones to see Beyoncé in concert. Malique examined how the company manages and measure the success of these outings.

4. What Went Wrong at Amyris? The manufacturer-turned-incubator filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and put its consumer businesses, including lines from Jonathan Van Ness and Rosie Huntington-Whiteley, up for sale and shut down its Onda Beauty and Francisco Costa brands. Our executive editor of The Business of Beauty, Priya Rao, has been following this developing story all week and filed her analysis on how things spun out of control.

5. Can the Fifteen Percent Pledge Get Past the Number? Only a few signatories of the pledge set up by Aurora James in 2020 have given updates on how many Black-owned brands they carry; none has declared it's met its Pledge goal, reported Sheena Butler-Young. As the climate around diversity initiatives shifts, the nonprofit is adapting its messaging to emphasise the need for long-term, structural changes over quick fixes. Will it work?

The BoF Podcast

Every year, millions of people set out to build successful businesses – yet very few succeed. Indeed, most startup businesses don't last for more than a couple of years, and very few of them make it to profitability, let alone a billion-dollar exit.

This week on The BoF Podcast we hear inspiring entrepreneurial stories from Ben Gorham of Byredo and Monique Rodriguez of Mielle Organics who spoke at BoF's The Business of Beauty Global Forum 2023 about their journeys to selling their businesses — but also the underlying motivation and purpose behind the companies they founded and what makes them so special. I hope you find it as inspiring as I did.

Enjoy your weekend!

Imran Amed, Founder, CEO and Editor-in-Chief, The Business of Fashion

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