Friday, August 11, 2023

❓The One Question to Ask When Investing

Good morning. When markets appear to be shifting, as we've started to see over the past week...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. When markets appear to be shifting, as we've started to see over the past week, it's important to ask the right questions. The most important, if not only, question is to ask where the best returns are from here.

Is it from stocks following a market-beating return in the first half of the year? Probably not. Typically the summer sees a market pullback going into the fall on a seasonal basis.

Could it come from bonds? Possibly. Interest rates are at their highest levels in over 15 years in the U.S. That's not helpful for borrowers. But for lenders, parking cash in short-term Treasury bills at a 5 percent yield looks attractive when your bank yields 1-2 percent and the market already had a big run.

Investors may want to take some risky stocks off the table, and take advantage of fixed-income, particularly if we're just about done with a rate hike cycle. Fixed-income prices will soar the next time interest rates get cut… for whatever reason.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 35,175.15 +0.15%
S&P 4,468.83 +0.03%
NASDAQ 13,737.99 +0.12%
*As of market close
Markets closed slightly higher on Thursday, but near lows of the day, as inflation picked up.
Oil dropped 2.0 percent, closing at $82.74 per barrel.
Gold dipped 0.2 percent, last going for $1,946 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies traded flat, with bitcoin at $29,405 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Keeping Customers Happy Tends to Pay Off Over Time
Companies that succeed over the long term continue to find new ways to offer value to their customers. Some of that value can come from providing new products and services that compliment existing ones.

Other companies offer better value with a higher quality user experience, with better service and interest. No matter what the specifics are, companies that continue to find new ways to drive customer satisfaction will continue to see customers return time and again.

» FULL STORY

Insider Activity Report: Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA)
William Sanders, a director at Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA), recently bought 5,000 shares across two transactions. The purchases increased his holdings by 13 percent, and came to a total cost of about $740,000.

These mark the first insider buys over the past two years. Otherwise, there have been regular and steady sales by company insiders, largely at the EVP level. Some sales have been in the $1,000,000 range.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: ConocoPhillips (COP)
Energy giant ConocoPhillips (COP) is up over 20 percent in the past year, nearly triple the return of the S&P 500. One trader sees shares trending higher in the months ahead.

That's based on the October $135 calls. With 70 days until expiration, 8,312 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 140, for a 59-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the calls paid $0.65 to make the bullish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Global Trade Slows

Physical trade between nations has slowed, reflecting a weak demand for goods. Typically, slowing global trade reflects weakness in the overall economy. This cycle may be slightly different, as part of the move is driven by higher interest rates. The decline may also reflect a drop in consumer spending on goods since the end of the pandemic.
China's Property Market Flashes Another Danger Sign

Country Garden, one of the largest developers in China, appears to be in a collapse, which may reflect the country's wider problems with an overinflated real estate market. Chinese media reports that the company has missed payments on two bonds denominated in U.S. dollars. Several bonds issued by the company denominated in yuan have also been delisted.
Insurers See $50 Billion Losses in the First Half of 2023

Natural disasters led to over $50 billion in global losses in the first half of 2023. That's the second-highest number since 2011. Some see insurers facing higher costs in the future from natural disasters as part of the impact of climate change, and with them, higher premiums for property holders.
UPS Driver Pay to Rise to $170,000 Annually

UPS (UPS) has reached a deal with the Teamsters Union for its drivers. By the end of the five-year deal, drivers would see their pay rise to $170,00 annually. Roughly 340,000 workers are represented, and the pay agreement was able to avert a strike by UPS drivers.
Cadillac Reveals All-Electric Escalade

Cadillac has unveiled its all-electric version of the Escalade SUV. The full-size SUV is expected to go into production by 2025, and has an estimated 450 mile range. The new model is in line with the company's plan to go fully-electric in its offerings by 2030, and has a starting price near $130,000.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
MELI 5.119%
DIS 4.721%
FLT 4.542%
VFC 3.816%
CHKP 3.252%
BOTTOM
TPR 16.204%
GM 5.943%
F 4.753%
RL 4.6%
CF 3.069%

Quote of the Day
Markets are focused on whether or not inflation is falling fast enough to allow the Fed to stop hiking rates. It's been decelerating, but it's still too high. And the Fed is at a bit of a crossroads.
- Bill Merz, head of capital markets research at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, on the market's recent pullback, which may lead to some sideways moves over the next few months as inflation remains higher than the Fed's target.

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