News: Have vice presidential debates ever mattered?

Monday, September 30, 2024

Have vice presidential debates ever mattered?

Sep 30, 2024

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TOP LINE

What could be the last debate of this presidential cycle is tomorrow. Will it make a difference?

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio) and Democratic Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz are facing off for the vice presidential debate on Tuesday — one of the biggest nights of the campaign for both men. But VP debates are often viewed as the undercard.

The only VP debate to have a higher viewership than the presidential events was the 2008 debate between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin. Vance and Walz will have a high bar to clear: The September debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris attracted 67 million viewers.

Tim Walz and JD Vance are pictured.

This combination of photos shows Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, left, at the DNC on Aug. 21, 2024, in Chicago, and Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, on Sept. 25, 2024, in Traverse City, Mich. | AP

Because Vance and Walz have little national name recognition, people may be less inclined to tune in. And unlike the presidential debates, the goal isn’t to sell themselves — it’s to boost the top of the ticket, those involved in previous VP debates told Score.

At this point in the campaign, few are convinced that tomorrow night’s showing will actually move the needle, especially with such few undecided voters.

“How many people out there really know who the vice presidential picks are?” asked Frank Fahrenkopf, chair of the Commission on Presidential Debates, which is not hosting events this year after both campaigns shunned the commission. “It's going to be very interesting to me to see how many people really watch the debate. But as far as an impact on the election in November, I don't think it's going to be anything unless someone really makes a bad flub.”

The stakes are high, given Trump’s insistence that he won’t participate in a second debate with Harris (who is pressuring him to do so). Typically, there is another presidential debate scheduled after the VP debate, but this could be the final pitch voters hear from the tickets, at least in a debate format — and the last chance for the Trump ticket to redeem itself after what many saw as a Harris victory a couple of weeks ago.

That could be “trickier” for Vance, said a former Republican strategist who was involved in debate prep for Paul Ryan in 2012. The strategist — who was granted anonymity to candidly discuss their experiences — noted that in that debate, Biden “set the tone for coverage” by being “very over the top and very combative” — a turnaround for the ticket after then-President Barack Obama had a bad first debate with Mitt Romney.

“President Trump clearly lost the first debate, but he's refusing to concede that he lost the first debate, and his vice presidential nominee therefore can't concede that he lost the first debate,” the Ryan alum said. “He's going to have to balance doing all the things that Trump didn't do, talking about the economy, focusing on inflation, tying the vice president to her record on the border, … without looking like a kangaroo ticket.”

Vance enters being seen as a stronger debater compared to Walz, a self-described weak debater. But for as much as their goal is to focus on the top of the ticket, their personalities could end up making an impact.

“You can never get personalities out of debates,” a Democratic operative involved in the 2016 presidential campaign, who was similarly granted anonymity, said. “I think [Vance] was chosen by Trump because he's concerned about having a VP that can appeal to the masses. … But then I also think there's a folksy, plain-speaking, unpolished Gov. Walz approach that I think will be effective as well.”

And with the race being neck-and-neck, small movements can be worthwhile, too.

“If a few thousand votes are affected in a competitive state and that's more than the margin, then it can be consequential,” said Joel Goldstein, a vice presidential scholar.

Happy Monday. Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2024 election: 36

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Presidential Big Board

BALLOT BATTLE — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “has now successfully removed his name from four battleground states — Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada — where moving even a fraction of Kennedy’s former supporters to Trump could be decisive,” POLITICO’s Brittany Gibson writes. But he’s had less luck in other battlegrounds, including Wisconsin, where the state Supreme Court on Friday ruled that he’ll remain on the ballot, and Michigan, where a federal Court of Appeals panel rejected his push to remove his name.

CAMPAIGN INTEL

SENATE SCRAMBLE — Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) “has been softening his edges ahead of another closer-than-expected reelection campaign,” POLITICO’s Daniella Diaz reports from Texas. Democratic Rep. Colin Allred “poses a formidable challenge to Cruz, who squeaked out 3-point victory in 2018 against Beto O’Rourke and, alleged bipartisanship notwithstanding, is a deeply polarizing figure even in Texas. … While Texas may be trending toward purple, Allred isn’t ready to embrace the national party. Asked by POLITICO whether he wants [Harris, Walz] or President Joe Biden to hit the campaign trail for him, the congressmember demurred.”

LEGAL LOOK — “Rep. Zach Nunn said Saturday that the Iowa Division of Criminal Investigation is investigating complaints against a shadowy group of operatives that recruited candidates to run in Iowa’s highly competitive congressional districts,” the Des Moines Register’s Marissa Payne reports. “Nunn again raised concerns about the Associated Press’ report on the Patriots Run Project. The AP found the group worked in at least six congressional races — two in Iowa — to recruit independent spoiler candidates to divert votes from Republicans.”

ABORTION (NOT) ON THE BALLOT — Michigan was one of the first states to codify abortion rights. But without the issue explicitly on the ballot, is it still a salient issue? Democrats are “testing the potency and staying power of their national message that Republicans will wipe out access to abortion everywhere if given the chance — including in states that have enacted protections,” POLITICO’s Alice Miranda Ollstein writes. “Republicans are trying to neutralize those attacks by arguing abortion is a non-issue because of Michigan’s ballot initiative, dismissing the possibility of a national ban, and pivoting to issues more favorable to them politically, including immigration and inflation.”

GROWING THE BLUE DOGS — Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is one of the most endangered Democrats this year. But “a victorious Golden could see his power swell,” E&E News’ Garrett Downs writes. “That’s because he’s refashioning the once venerable Blue Dog Coalition from an outdated relic into a dynamic group of young independents willing to use their leverage and buck leadership when necessary. If Democrats win a small majority in November led by Blue Dog candidates, it could leave Golden and his group with make-or-break votes on a swath of key Democratic policy from climate change to immigration.”

THE CASH DASH

FIRST IN SCORE — GRASSROOTS GAINS — A grassroots fundraising program linked to the League of Conservation Voters and the Natural Resources Defense Council’s political arms announced its donors have raised more than $50 million to support pro-environment candidates, surpassing the $45 million it raised in the entire 2020 election cycle, Jessica Piper writes in.

GiveGreen, a project of LCV Victory Fund and NRDC Action Votes, primarily directs donors toward Democratic congressional and Senate candidates in competitive races.

"GiveGreen donors are stepping up to this fight in record numbers because they understand what's at stake in this election," said Kevin S. Curtis, executive director of NRDC Action Votes. "We must move forward and build on the progress of the past four years.”

IN THE STATES — The DNC is “sending money to every state Democratic Party in the country for the first time in its history to bolster down-ballot races,” POLITICO’s Irie Sentner writes. The close to $2.5 million investment “aims to help break Republican supermajorities in deep-red states and strengthen voter engagement efforts across the U.S.”

VOTING RIGHTS

MAIL IT IN — “The American Civil Liberties Union of Pennsylvania is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to decide whether requiring voters to date their mail ballot return envelopes violates federal law,” Votebeat’s Carter Walker reports. “It follows a separate request from voting rights groups [last] week to Pennsylvania’s highest court for an expedited ruling on the date requirement.” Earlier this month, the state Supreme Court tossed out a lower court's decision that would have required counties to count mail-in ballots with missing or incorrect dates, saying it didn’t have the authority to review the issue.

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POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — ARIZONA — Trump narrowly leads Harris in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, 48 percent to 42 percent (500 likely voters, Sept. 21-24, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

… MICHIGAN — Harris has 48 percent and Trump has 47 percent head-to-head in a New York Times/Siena College poll. On the full ballot, they’re tied at 46 percent (688 likely voters, Sept. 21-26, MoE +/- 4.2 percentage points).

… NORTH CAROLINA — Trump has 50 percent of support to Harris’ 49 percent in a head-to-head poll from Fox News conducted by Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. On the full ballot, Trump comes in at 49 percent and Harris at 47 percent (787 likely voters, Sept. 20-24, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points).

In a CNN poll conducted by SSRS, the two are tied at 48 percent on the full ballot (931 likely voters, Sept. 20-25, MoE +/- 3.9 percentage points).

… NE-02 — Harris leads Trump in the district (which will award a single electoral vote to the winner) in a CNN poll, 53 percent to 42 percent on the full ballot. (749 likely voters, Sept. 20-25, MoE +/- 4.0 percentage points).

In a NYT/Siena poll, Harris leads 52 percent to Trump’s 43 percent in a head-to-head and 51 percent to 42 percent on the full ballot (680 likely voters, Sept. 24-26, MoE +/- 4.1 percentage points).

… OHIO — Trump leads Harris 50 percent to 44 percent in a NYT/Siena poll head-to-head, and 49 percent to 43 percent on the full ballot (687 likely voters, Sept. 21-26, MoE +/- 4.2 percentage points).

… PENNSYLVANIA — Trump and Harris are virtually tied in the Fox News poll, 48 percent to 47 percent on the full ballot. Head-to-head, they’re both at 49 percent (775 likely voters, Sept. 20-24, MoE +/- 3.5 percentage points).

… WISCONSIN — Harris has 49 percent and Trump Trump has 47 percent in a two-person race in the NYT/Siena poll. On the full ballot, Harris has 48 percent and Trump has 46 percent (680 likely voters, Sept. 21-26, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego slightly leads Republican Kari Lake 47 percent to 41 percent in the USA TODAY/Suffolk poll.

MI-Sen — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin narrowly leads Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers, 47 percent to 42 percent, in the NYT/Siena poll.

OH-Sen — Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Bernie Moreno are in a tight race in the NYT/Siena poll, with Brown at 47 percent and Moreno at 43 percent.

PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey is ahead of Republican Dave McCormick in the Fox poll, 53 percent to 44 percent.

WI-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican Eric Hovde 50 percent to 43 percent in the NYT/Siena poll.

NC-Gov — Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein leads Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson 56 percent to 41 percent in the Fox poll.

Stein has an even bigger lead in the CNN poll, 53 percent to 36 percent.

NE-02 — Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas has 49 percent to Republican Rep. Don Bacon’s 46 percent in the NYT/Siena poll.

The CNN poll has Vargas with a slight lead at 50 percent and Bacon at 44 percent.

AS SEEN ON TV

LET’S TALK ABOUT IT — “About a dozen GOP candidates in competitive House races, particularly in blue-leaning districts, have already aired broadcast TV ads this fall outlining their position on abortion,” POLITICO’s Ally Mutnick writes. “In 2022, only three such Republicans aired similar ads. And unlike the vague language about ‘women’s health care’ that some employed in the past, Republicans are taking a more direct and personal approach now, explicitly addressing the topic of abortion and saying they support access. Most of the ads are direct to camera.”

ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are some highlights:

NE-Sen — The NRSC is running coordinated spots with Republican Sen. Deb Fischer that call independent Dan Osborn a “Democrat in disguise” and a “Bernie Sanders Democrat.” Fischer also calls him “so far left” because he “would give those [Social Security] benefits away to illegal immigrants,” and she touts her endorsement from Trump.

NC-Gov — Stein features a woman who needed an abortion because her baby was not going to survive, saying that Robinson’s “extreme abortion ban will absolutely put women at risk.” (Read more on these testimonial ads about abortion from POLITICO’s Elena Schneider.)

MT-01 — Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke says that Democrat Monica Tranel “wants to hand our public lands to radical environmentalist clients and confiscate our firearms.” In another ad, he suggests that “Biden, Tranel and the socialist Dems in D.C.” can’t stop China.

… Tranel ties Zinke to China and shoots down what’s supposed to be a Chinese spy balloon.

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I’m not moving down here until I’m elected because I’m not giving up my universal health care.” — Green Party candidate Jim Casha, who is running for MI-08 but lives in Canada.

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