Monday, September 30, 2024

Republicans fret the ground game gap

Presented by USAFacts: POLITICO's must-read briefing on what's driving the afternoon in Washington.
Sep 30, 2024 View in browser
 
Playbook PM

By Garrett Ross

Presented by 

USAFacts
THE CATCH-UP

MIDDLE EAST LATEST — WaPo: “Israel tells Washington it plans imminent ground operation in Lebanon, U.S. official says” 

FOR YOUR RADAR — “Man accused of second attempted Trump assassination pleads not guilty,” by CNN’s Holmes Lybrand

HEADS UP — President JOE BIDEN said this morning that he “may have to request” Congress return early from its pre-election recess in order to pass supplemental disaster aid to address the “broad and devastating impacts” of Hurricane Helene. More from Lauren Egan

REVENGE OF THE MYTH — DONALD TRUMP has made it no secret in his campaign rhetoric for a second stint in the White House that he intends to pull the levers of government to prosecute a wide swath of his opponents. While some observers dismiss the claims as Trump’s usual bluster, there’s reason to believe the ruminations could become reality, Ankush Khardori writes for POLITICO Magazine.

“A lot has also changed since Trump was last in power — both for Trump and the presidency itself — that make it more likely that he will pursue his enemies and easier for him to direct the Justice Department to do so. … He’s a convicted criminal and still faces trials that could send him to prison, and he’s not likely to forget all about that even if his legal troubles essentially disappear once he reaches the White House. He could easily wreak havoc with many of his political opponents’ lives simply by subjecting them to long, costly and highly disruptive criminal investigations and prosecutions.”

Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally.

Republicans are worried that Donald Trump's lack of ground game at this point will hurt him in November. | Brittainy Newman for POLITICO

THE GROUND BEEF — Republican operatives in key battleground states are seeing little evidence of the Trump campaign’s ground game and are growing more concerned as the election enters the final stretch that the lack of attention could cost him at the ballot box in an exceedingly close race, Megan Messerly, Natalie Allison and Elena Schneider report.

“In interviews, more than a dozen Republican strategists and operatives in presidential battlegrounds voiced serious concerns about what they described as a paltry get-out-the-vote effort by the Trump campaign, an untested strategy of leaning on outside groups to help do field work and a top-of-the-ticket strategy that’s disjointed from the one Republicans down the ballot are running.”

A taste of the distaste: “The question in my mind is, are they all singing from the same sheet of music, and is there that strong, extensive, well-funded machine at the top of the ticket?” said STEPHEN LAWSON, a Republican operative in Georgia.

A Michigan-based GOP strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly, put the disparity more bluntly: “They are out-matching us in money, in enthusiasm and in the ground game.”

AFTERNOON READ — “What’s the Deal With Republicans and Steakhouses?” by Washingtonian’s Jessica Sidman: “A history of the right’s favorite DC restaurants and the beef that’s fueling — figuratively and literally — the 2024 election.”

Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.

 

A message from USAFacts:

Want to know the facts on immigration, taxes and spending? Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO and owner of the LA Clippers, shares facts and data, you make up your mind!

 
8 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW

Eric Adams is pictured.

Eric Adams' legal team asked a judge to dismiss the bribery charge against the NYC mayor. | Yuki Iwamura/AP

1. THE LATEST OUT OF NYC: Lawyers for NYC Mayor ERIC ADAMS asked a federal judge this morning to toss the bribery charge against him, “providing an early glimpse at how the defense plans to attack the first federal indictment of a sitting mayor in modern New York City history,” NYT’s Nicole Hong reports. “In a 25-page filing, Mr. Adams’s lawyers argued that the accusations against the mayor did not meet the federal definition of bribery, pointing to a recent Supreme Court ruling that raised the bar for prosecutors to bring corruption cases.”

Another note: BILL BURCK — who in the past has represented REINCE PRIEBUS, STEVE BANNON and DON McGAHN — has signed on to join Adams’ defense team, per Kyle Cheney.

2. CASH DASH: The Senate Leadership Fund, the MITCH McCONNELL-aligned super PAC, is prepping to drop a $67.5 million ad blitz on “TV, radio and digital ad reservations in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” WSJ’s Lindsay Wise reports.

The breakdown: “The super PAC, run by close McConnell allies, will add $28 million in outside spending to Republicans’ effort to unseat Sen. BOB CASEY in Pennsylvania, $17 million in Wisconsin to target Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN, and $22.5 million in Michigan, where the parties are fighting over an open seat currently held by Democrats.”

3. TO THE LETTER: A band of advocacy groups is urging every member of Congress to “commit to certifying the results of the presidential election on Jan. 6, 2025, warning lawmakers in a letter sent Monday that ‘our most fundamental rights and freedoms will be jeopardized once again’ if they don’t accept the outcome,” WaPo’s Colby Itkowitz reports. “The letter, first obtained by The Washington Post, comes days after House Speaker MIKE JOHNSON (R-La.) hedged when asked if he would commit to certifying the results if former president Donald Trump loses to Vice President KAMALA HARRIS. Johnson answered that he would do so ‘if we have a free, fair and safe election.’”

More from the letter: “Ensuring the peaceful certification of the next presidential election is a critical responsibility. You have the responsibility to uplift our democratic institutions in the face of rising political violence and threats. A failure to do so would not only be a dangerous dereliction of your oath of office but a stain on our democracy.” Read it in full

4. IMMIGRATION FILES: “Migrant crossings at the US’ southern border drop for the third straight month amid campaign year scrutiny,” by CNN’s Priscilla Alvarez: “Migrant crossings at the US-Mexico border remain at their lowest levels since 2020, according to new federal data obtained by CNN, as Republicans and Democrats spar over border security. … In September, US Border Patrol recorded around 54,000 encounters along the US southern border, according to federal data – marking the third month of decline since the executive action went into effect.”

Related read: “Trump Amps Up Rhetoric to Keep Immigration at Center of Election,” by WSJ’s Natalie Andrews and Michelle Hackman

 

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5. FOR THE RECORD: A number of VA employees “improperly accessed the medical records of vice-presidential nominees JD VANCE and TIM WALZ this summer, VA investigators found, in a violation of federal health privacy laws that is under criminal investigation,” WaPo’s Lisa Rein and Devlin Barrett report.

“VA Inspector General MICHAEL MISSAL’S office has shared evidence with federal prosecutors on the actions of several employees in the health system, including a physician and a contractor who spent extended time looking at the candidates’ medical files, according to law enforcement officials, raising investigators’ concerns about their motives.” The respective campaigns were notified of the breach and investigators are working to determine whether either of the health records have been improperly distributed beyond the initial access.

6. FACES IN THE CROWD: If you’ve watched a Trump rally closely since 2016, there’s a good chance you’ve seen a pack of women dressed in their Sunday best, smiling and cheering on Trump on stage. They even got a shoutout in recent appearances, where Trump recognized the “beautiful ladies from North Carolina” for their continued presence in the front rows. NYT’s Robert Draper and Michael Gold dig into who these devoted attendees are in a fascinating deep-dive piece:

“All are members of an evangelical charismatic Christian church in the tiny town of Spindale (population 4,238) in western North Carolina. The church, Word of Faith Fellowship, has for decades drawn controversy over its cultish insularity and its treatment of children and adults who have been judged by church leaders to be sinners. … The women serve as a trusted volunteer arm of the campaign’s advance team. They arrive well before the beginning of a Trump event, set up chairs in the V.I.P. section, run the media sign-in table and disassemble the V.I.P. section after the rally is over.”

7. THE BIG SMALL IDEA: The Small Business Administration is relaxing rules for government-backed small business loans, with a rollout featuring Harris as she makes support for startups a focal point of her presidential bid, Zachary Warmbrodt writes. The SBA is “easing the terms for a program that lets employers refinance debt incurred for land, buildings and equipment. The agency expects the changes, which follow a series of similar revisions to the program over the last few years, will make it easier for small businesses to meet eligibility requirements and to potentially lower the costs of their loans by thousands of dollars.”

8. TREND WATCH: “Americans Are More Reliant Than Ever on Government Aid,” by WSJ’s Aaron Zitner, Jon Kamp and Brian McGill: “Americans’ reliance on government support is soaring, driven by programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. That support is especially critical in economically stressed communities throughout the U.S., many of which lean Republican and are concentrated in swing states crucial in deciding the presidential election. Neither party has much incentive to dial back the spending.

“The big reasons for this dramatic growth: A much larger share of Americans are seniors, and their healthcare costs have risen. At the same time, many communities have suffered from economic decline because of challenges including the loss of manufacturing, leaving government money as a larger share of people’s income in such places.”

PLAYBOOKERS

Dikembe Mutombo, who died today, is likely the tallest-ever congressional intern, Paul Kane notes.

Rahm Emanuel thanked Fumio Kishida for his service.

ON THE HOMEFRONT — POLITICO inked a partnership with Capitol AI to bring new AI features to POLITICO Pro. Subscribers later this year will be able to “create custom reports seamlessly by locating, organizing, and integrating our extensive library of political and policy reporting, intelligence, and analysis,” POLITICO EVP Rachel Loeffler said.

MEDIA MOVE — Michael Caruso is stepping down as CEO and publisher of The New Republic, a role he took on in February 2023.

TRANSITIONS — Mara Candelaria Reardon is now senior adviser for the White House Initiative on Educational and Economic Excellence for Hispanics. She most recently was deputy director of public engagement at the National Telecommunications and Information Administration. … Sarah Harrington is joining Covington & Burling’s appellate and Supreme Court practice group as partner and co-chair. She most recently was deputy assistant attorney general in charge of the Civil Division’s Appellate Section.

BONUS BIRTHDAY: Burson’s Elena Palomino

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Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.

Correction: Friday’s Playbook PM misspelled Julia Louis-Dreyfus’ name.

 

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