JOHNSON’S SPENDING-SPEAKER PROBLEMS PERSIST Mike Johnson emerged relatively unscathed from this month’s spending fight. And boxed himself into a December brawl — right before he could need to shore up support for a speakership vote. The timing: Under the terms of the three-month spending deal, Congress now has until Dec. 20 to fund the government. The speakership vote will commence on the House floor on Jan. 3. The balancing act: Cutting a year-end spending deal will require buy-in from Democrats, almost certainly fueling further frustrations among conservatives, who are tired of feeling like the GOP is constantly getting rolled on spending. But Johnson needs to keep that right flank relatively happy, since those members are most likely to cause headaches for Johnson’s leadership ambitions. And conservatives aren’t shy about connecting the two issues. “It depends on what happens next. This is a moving target,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told POLITICO about voting for Johnson again in January. Spending negotiations are “going to be a central conversation to the speaker conversation in November, December — what are we going to do about this?” echoed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). Some of Johnson’s allies have been privately worrying about the dynamic for weeks. Specifically, they are concerned that a December spending fight threatens to unravel all of the work Johnson has put into building bridges with his right flank at the exact moment that he can’t afford to lose those members. Some Republicans are also worried Johnson could be boxed into a holiday shutdown if he can’t convince his own conference or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to either punt the funding deadline into 2025 or get a larger spending deal. Some math: As we’ve previously noted, Republicans believe Johnson has at least a few House GOP detractors who will oppose his gavel bid no matter what. That includes, but might not be limited to, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.). Johnson will need 218 votes on the House floor to be elected speaker again if Republicans hold onto the majority. How many votes he can lose ultimately depends on the size of his majority and he can’t depend on help from Democrats. Worth considering: If or when he runs for speaker again, Johnson will be able to offer certain carrots to hesitant members that he couldn’t before. That includes the ability to leverage committee spots, including plum chairmanships, and the debate over the rules package. When he rose to the House’s top spot last fall, Johnson was effectively stuck with the House that his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, built. “This speaker has been consistently underestimated,” said Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). “I think his progress is awfully good and I don’t underestimate him. And I believe if we hold the majority, which I think we can, he’ll be in a very strong position.” What Johnson is saying so far: Johnson is vowing that he won’t take up an omnibus funding measure — when all 12 spending bills are rolled into one giant package — and that House Republicans don’t want any “busses” at all. (i.e., a bill that would roll together some, but not all of the bills.) Conservatives, especially, want to pass each of the 12 bills individually, though we’ve heard skepticism from that corner already that the House won’t ultimately pass a series of December “mini-busses.” Still, Johnson has made his pledge both publicly and privately. Notably, he did so in a recent meeting with the Freedom Caucus, a group that houses some of his outspoken antagonists. — Jordain Carney, with an assist from Jennifer Scholtes GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Sept. 30, where we’re hungry for the world’s largest pupusa.
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