Monday, September 30, 2024

Johnson’s December jam

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Sep 30, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Inside Congress

By Jordain Carney

Presented by Plan B One-Step®

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Speaker Mike Johnson talks to reporters.

Speaker Mike Johnson faces part two of the funding fight just as he may be trying to hold onto the speaker's gavel. | Angelina Katsanis/AP

JOHNSON’S SPENDING-SPEAKER PROBLEMS PERSIST

Mike Johnson emerged relatively unscathed from this month’s spending fight. And boxed himself into a December brawl — right before he could need to shore up support for a speakership vote.

The timing: Under the terms of the three-month spending deal, Congress now has until Dec. 20 to fund the government. The speakership vote will commence on the House floor on Jan. 3.

The balancing act: Cutting a year-end spending deal will require buy-in from Democrats, almost certainly fueling further frustrations among conservatives, who are tired of feeling like the GOP is constantly getting rolled on spending. But Johnson needs to keep that right flank relatively happy, since those members are most likely to cause headaches for Johnson’s leadership ambitions.

And conservatives aren’t shy about connecting the two issues.

“It depends on what happens next. This is a moving target,” Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) told POLITICO about voting for Johnson again in January.

Spending negotiations are “going to be a central conversation to the speaker conversation in November, December — what are we going to do about this?” echoed Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas).

Some of Johnson’s allies have been privately worrying about the dynamic for weeks. Specifically, they are concerned that a December spending fight threatens to unravel all of the work Johnson has put into building bridges with his right flank at the exact moment that he can’t afford to lose those members.

Some Republicans are also worried Johnson could be boxed into a holiday shutdown if he can’t convince his own conference or Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to either punt the funding deadline into 2025 or get a larger spending deal.

Some math: As we’ve previously noted, Republicans believe Johnson has at least a few House GOP detractors who will oppose his gavel bid no matter what. That includes, but might not be limited to, Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.).

Johnson will need 218 votes on the House floor to be elected speaker again if Republicans hold onto the majority. How many votes he can lose ultimately depends on the size of his majority and he can’t depend on help from Democrats.

Worth considering: If or when he runs for speaker again, Johnson will be able to offer certain carrots to hesitant members that he couldn’t before. That includes the ability to leverage committee spots, including plum chairmanships, and the debate over the rules package. When he rose to the House’s top spot last fall, Johnson was effectively stuck with the House that his predecessor, Kevin McCarthy, built.

“This speaker has been consistently underestimated,” said Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.). “I think his progress is awfully good and I don’t underestimate him. And I believe if we hold the majority, which I think we can, he’ll be in a very strong position.”

What Johnson is saying so far: Johnson is vowing that he won’t take up an omnibus funding measure — when all 12 spending bills are rolled into one giant package — and that House Republicans don’t want any “busses” at all. (i.e., a bill that would roll together some, but not all of the bills.) Conservatives, especially, want to pass each of the 12 bills individually, though we’ve heard skepticism from that corner already that the House won’t ultimately pass a series of December “mini-busses.”

Still, Johnson has made his pledge both publicly and privately. Notably, he did so in a recent meeting with the Freedom Caucus, a group that houses some of his outspoken antagonists.

— Jordain Carney, with an assist from Jennifer Scholtes

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Sept. 30, where we’re hungry for the world’s largest pupusa. 

 

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DECEMBER’S DISASTER DILEMMA

The devastation wrought by Hurricane Helene over the last several days has put a new and unflattering spotlight on Congress. Lawmakers, eager to force through a short-term spending deal, left for their six-week recess last week without providing tens of billions of dollars in additional disaster aid requested by the Biden administration.

President Joe Biden even suggested Monday that members might have to return from their campaign-season break to deal with funding for Helene’s fallout. But while federal disaster relief is indeed cash-strapped, FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund — the primary source of money for the federal government’s disaster response and recovery efforts — isn’t totally destitute.

That aid is just one of many issues lawmakers torpedoed in the name of political expediency, tossed into a pile of problems that Congress must grapple with before the end of the calendar year.

No need to panic — yet: The stopgap spending bill Congress cleared last week, which punts the government funding deadline through Dec. 20, also extends $20.3 billion in current funding for the DRF. That money is expected to run low by January, which is why many members wanted to provide a major cash infusion sooner rather than later.

Without action from lawmakers, that pot of disaster funding is facing a multi-billion-dollar deficit early next year. That could mean a host of tough decisions, like halting payments for anything that isn’t considered life-sustaining or critical.

Before leaving last week for their lengthy break, a number of Democrats openly criticized the lack of longer-term disaster money in the so-called continuing resolution, even as they voted for it. A number of Republicans, particularly those from disaster-affected states, also quietly said they would have supported a big injection of aid, had it been included.

But now the DRF is yet another December problem, further complicating what’s already expected to be politically complex fiscal 2025 government funding talks.

In a statement, Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), the top Democratic appropriator in the House, said she supports passing an emergency disaster aid package ASAP, “as I have since the Biden-Harris administration requested additional resources nearly a year ago.”

Caitlin Emma 

 

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FIRST IN INSIDE CONGRESS: DEMS’ TECH COMPANY DEMANDS ON DISINFORMATION 

A group of House Democrats is calling on tech companies to do more to combat election disinformation — particularly to counter its effects on minority voters — citing false reports about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio.

“We write to express our deep concerns regarding the spread of disinformation targeting minority voters across your social media platforms and to warn of the corrosive impact this will have on our elections,” wrote eight Democratic lawmakers of color, led by Rep. Yvette Clarke (D-N.Y.) in a letter to tech giants including Meta, X, Microsoft and Google.

The lawmakers were alarmed by the threat of voter suppression online and the proliferation of disinformation on social media, including debunked rumors about Haitian migrants and eating pets that they said led to threats in Springfield. “We must work together to fight disinformation and protect our communities,” the lawmakers wrote.

They sent 16 questions to the social media companies, asking for details on their disinformation safeguards and fact-checking practices, info on their efforts to combat foreign influence, and plans to mitigate threats and violence, among other concerns. The tech companies have until Oct. 18 to respond.

— Nicholas Wu

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

Rest in peace to maybe the tallest Hill intern ever.

The Verizon outage affected lots of us. 

What else brings senators together like bourbon?

Barbra Streisand gave $1,500 to Dan Osborn in his challenge to Deb Fischer. 

QUICK LINKS 

Ted Cruz rebrands for a tight race in Texas from Daniella

Republican group to spend $22.5M to help Rogers in Michigan Senate race, from Melissa Nann Burke in The Detroit News

Most swing-state Democrats disavow Sanders’ bid to block aid to Israel, from Marc Rod in Jewish Insider

Advocacy groups urge Congress to commit to certifying election results, from Colby Itkowitz in The Washington Post

What’s the Deal With Republicans and Steakhouses? From Jessica Sidman at Washingtonian

ON THE HOME FRONTPOLITICO inks a partnership with Capitol AI to bring new AI features to POLITICO Pro. Subscribers later this year will be able to “create custom reports seamlessly by locating, organizing, and integrating our extensive library of political and policy reporting, intelligence, and analysis,” POLITICO EVP Rachel Loeffler said.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The Senate will hold a pro forma session at 10 a.m.

The House has a pro forma at 11 a.m.

TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL

Speaker Mike Johnson will deliver remarks at 4:40 p.m. at the New York Stock Exchange about the GOP’s 2025 agenda.

TRIVIA

FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Matthew Stanonis was the first person to correctly guess that all five presidents only served one term. (We made a ref call here: Your host decided that Matthew met the spirit, if not the letter, of Peter’s answer – which was that all five ran for reelection but didn’t win.)

TODAY’S QUESTION from Jordain: Five presidents have sported beards. Whose was the longest?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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