| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Some human rights experts charge that President Joe Biden has a double standard on human rights and laws of war when it comes to Israel. | Susan Walsh/AP | With help from Paul McLeary, Joseph Gedeon and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric President JOE BIDEN and Vice President KAMALA HARRIS were quick to issue statements on Israel’s killing of top Hezbollah leader HASSAN NASRALLAH this week. One thing that wasn’t in those statements: An acknowledgment of the mounting civilian casualties in the escalating Israel-Hezbollah conflict. The human rights community has leapt on the omission. In their view, Biden at least acknowledged the civilian casualties from Israel’s controversial campaign in Gaza and now in Lebanon, he’s not even doing that. “It’s remarkable given the anger he clearly knows is happening around the world already because of civilian casualties in Gaza and the West Bank,” said SARAH YAGER of the Human Rights Watch advocacy group. Four other human rights advocates who spoke to NatSecDaily expressed similar sentiments. Administration officials sharply push back on the criticism, saying their monthslong drive for a cease-fire in Gaza and recent push for diplomacy in Lebanon is all centered on ending the fighting to protect civilians. They said Biden’s statement on Saturday (Harris issued her own separately) focused on Nasrallah and his legacy of terrorism. “We certainly assume there have been civilian casualties. I don’t think we can quantify it right now but we are in touch with our Israeli counterparts,” National Security Council spokesperson JOHN KIRBY said when asked about the civilian cost of the strikes that killed Nasrallah on CNN on Sunday. “While nobody is mourning Nasrallah’s death, we certainly do more on any loss of civilian life.” The National Security Council declined to comment, as did a spokesperson for Harris. The mounting criticisms point to a widening rift between the Biden administration and human rights groups over Biden’s approach to the Middle East crisis. Some human rights experts charge that Biden has a double standard on human rights and laws of war when it comes to Israel. That in turn, they argue, will further erode U.S. standing and support in the Middle East and undermine its messaging on human rights elsewhere in the world. The latest developments have also fueled debates within the administration over how the United States should support Israel in Lebanon going forward: Some U.S. officials are thrilled that Israel’s operations have devastated the Hezbollah terrorist group while others say this short-term victory could lead to further fighting that escalates the humanitarian crisis. More than one million people have been uprooted in southern Lebanon as they fled to avoid Israeli airstrikes, according to the latest available U.N. data. Since mid-September, Israeli strikes have killed around 1,030 and wounded 6,532 people, according to the Lebanese health ministry—which notably doesn’t distinguish between civilian deaths and combatants.
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Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | GROUND INCURSION: Israel, meanwhile, has begun launching small and targeted ground raids into Lebanon with special forces in moves that could presage a wider operation with Israeli boots on the ground in southern Lebanon. The raids are aimed at the Radwan forces, an elite fighting force of the Hezbollah militant group, Israeli officials told the Wall Street Journal. These raids come as Israel seeks to take advantage of Hezbollah’s disarray following weeks of targeted strikes and the killing of Nasrallah. But back in Washington, at least some U.S. officials fear that Israel’s best-laid plans for a succinct operation in southern Lebanon could morph into a deadlier and more drawn-out campaign HIGH ANXIETY: The U.S. is effectively doubling the number of fighter planes it has in the Middle East, adding to a stream of deployments of American ships, aircraft and ground troops sent to the region in recent days, our own PAUL McLEARY writes in. The increased U.S. air presence in the region comes amid rising concerns over the safety of U.S. ground troops and ships spread across the Middle East. Worries are growing that Iranian-backed militant groups could launch attacks in response to Israel's killing of Nasrallah in Lebanon on Friday. The deployed jets, which include new F-15E, F-16, A-10 and F-22 fighter squadrons from the U.S., were previously scheduled to arrive and replace similar squadrons there currently, but the existing units will stay in place. Pentagon spokesperson SABRINA SINGH told reporters Monday that the move, which essentially doubles the number of fighter planes, will bolster existing forces in the region. The jets are there “for the protection of U.S. forces,” Singh said, referring to them as "air defense capabilities,” to protect U.S troops from missile and drone attacks. On Sunday, Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN ordered the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and its attached destroyers to remain in the region, just a month after rerouting them to the Middle East while they were on a planned deployment to the Pacific. The order comes as the USS Harry S. Truman carrier strike group is already en route to the region, potentially creating a two-carrier presence in the Middle East for the second time since the summer. ADDRESSING ANOTHER OTHER QUAD: The U.S. and its allies are attempting to thwart growing collaborations between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, arguing there is still a window of time to poke holes in their budding partnerships as fears of full-blown war in the Middle East grow. As The New York Times’ EDWARD WONG writes, “the partnerships now are marriages of convenience or pragmatism” and responding to the United States, not born out of ideology, and the West still believes they can use the divisions to keep the ties from solidifying further. HAITI MISSION EXTENDED: The United Nations extended the mandate of a Kenya-led multinational security support mission to Haiti for another year, The Miami Herald’s JACQUELINE CHARLES and MICHAEL WILNER report. But the unanimous extension represents a pyrrhic victory for the U.S., Kenya and its supporters. The Security Council only approved the extension after the U.S. quietly dropped its push to turn the mission against armed gangs in the Caribbean country’s capital of Port-au-Prince into a U.N. peacekeeping mission. China and Russia were opposed to the move, arguing the force needs more time to establish itself before receiving a major expansion in powers and mandate from the United Nations. IT’S MONDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | STOLTY’S PARTING WORDS: Outgoing NATO chief JENS STOLTENBERG wants European leaders wary about former President DONALD TRUMP to still work with him if he’s elected in November. In an interview with our own STUART LAU, the Norwegian diplomat, who hands the reins over to Dutch Prime Minister MARK RUTTE on Tuesday, said that “it is important for European allies [to] engage with the United States to ensure that they continue to support Ukraine,” regardless of whether it’s Trump or Vice President KAMALA HARRIS in the White House. Trump, Stoltenberg noted, supplied Kyiv with Javelins, which helped Ukraine resist in the first months of Russia’s invasion. “It’s important that European allies don’t create self-fulfilling prophecies, but actually … do whatever we can to ensure that the U.S. continues to support Ukraine,” the NATO chief said. All European allies, he added, should “convey very clearly to the United States” that Ukraine must remain a sovereign, independent nation in order to achieve peace. Stoltenberg’s entreaties to his fellow Europeans come as transatlantic anxieties over Trump’s potential return to the White House continue to increase, as policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic fret that his administration might curtail support for Ukraine. Trump, for his part, has pledged to get a “deal that’s good for both” Ukraine and Russia and end the war if he’s elected. US UNHRC REVERSAL: State Department spokesperson MATT MILLER confirmed our own PHELIM KINE’s weekend scoop that the U.S. won’t pursue another three-year term on the U.N. Human Rights Council, as some speculate the Biden administration is trying to protect the body, and U.S. credibility on human rights, from Trump. At a department press briefing today, Miller told reporters the move is intended to cede the way for other allies, including Spain, Iceland and Switzerland, to “carry the flag forward” on the U.N. body. “We will continue to remain engaged on human rights issues, and are currently slated to run again in 2028,” he added. Biden reversed a 2018 decision under Trump to leave the council. The Trump administration decried the body as “a cesspool of political bias.”
| | | |   | | | | | BIDEN’S COUNTER RANSOMWARE WEEK: The White House and its global cyber allies are tackling ransomware this week, and our friends at Weekly Cybersecurity have the low-down on what to expect. Deputy national security adviser ANNE NEUBERGER told reporters Sunday that the White House will unveil a few new programs under the auspices of its 68-country Counter-Ransomware Initiative. Those include a new USAID-administered fund that will be supported through contributions from CRI members and the private sector and victim guidance endorsed by members and insurance bodies for organizations experiencing a ransomware attack. The U.S. will also announce an expansion of cybersecurity supply chain efforts in the energy sector to all CRI members, building off of the successes of this year’s G7 initiative. The efforts come as Russia and other foreign malign cyber actors step up ransomware attacks against Western targets, in particular health care and emergency services.
| | BANNER FMS YEAR: Fiscal Year 2024 was a great time for foreign governments to purchase U.S.-produced military equipment. As our friends at Morning Defense write this morning (for Pros!), U.S. allies purchased more than $107 billion in military equipment from U.S. defense contractors between October 2023 and September 2024. Driving up the size of the sales, which increased by $25 billion this year, were blockbuster sales to Israel and Turkey. Turkey purchased, among other things, 40 new F-16 fighter jets and upgrades for 79 existing F-16s. Israel, meanwhile, bought 50 new F-15IA fighter aircraft and modification kits for its existing 25 planes. Morning Defense’s tally, which is backed up by two think tanks, may ultimately differ from the State Department’s final count, but that number shouldn’t be too far afield from their estimate if Congress approves all the deals sent to it for approval.
| | BIBI WARNS TEHRAN: Netanyahu isn’t only threatening Hezbollah. As our own CSONGOR KÖRÖMI reports, the Israeli leader issued a cryptic threat to Iran’s religious leaders today, insinuating that regime change in Tehran is imminent. “When Iran is finally free, and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think — everything will be different,” Netanyahu said in a video statement addressed to the Iranian people which saw him lambast the "fanatic theocrats" who rule the country. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace.” The video message comes as tensions between Iran and Israel intensify and worries loom that Iran may actually attack Israel in response to recent escalations in Lebanon and the August assassination of Hamas leader ISMAIL HANIYEH in Tehran, risking the outbreak of a much wider regional war.
| | ON THE HOME FRONT: POLITICO is launching a partnership with Capitol AI to bring new AI features to POLITICO Pro. POLITICO Executive Vice President RACHEL LOEFFLER said that means that later this year pro subscribers will be able to “create custom reports seamlessly by locating, organizing and integrating our extensive library of political and policy reporting, intelligence, and analysis” — JONATHAN S. MURPHY has returned to the Department of Homeland Security, where he is director for cyber and tech policy. He most recently was director for critical infrastructure cybersecurity at the NSC. — DAVE VORLAND is now acting deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Office of Space and Missile Defense Policy. He most recently was special assistant for policy in the Immediate Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense. — ALEC JOHNSON is now the senior adviser for defense industrial base policy within the Secretary of the Navy's Office. He was previously the director for legislative affairs on the National Security Council. — Brookings Institution named JONATHAN CZIN the Michael H. Armacost Chair in foreign policy studies. Czin was previously a member of the Central Intelligence Agency’s Senior Analytic Service and was National Security Council director for China from 2021 to 2023.
| | — Couldn’t get enough UNGA coverage last week? Don’t miss this column from our own NAHAL TOOSI: Not even the Justice League could save this UN — IVO DAALDER, POLITICO: What a Trump victory would really mean for Europe — STEVEN HENDRIX, Americas Quarterly: It’s time to rethink U.S.-Colombia relations — JULIE STEINBERG and GEORGI KANTCHEV, The Wall Street Journal: This $2.4 billion lithium mine is caught between Russia and the West
| | — Georgetown University Institute for Women, Peace and Security, 10 a.m.: 2024 Hillary Rodham Clinton Awards, focusing on "Celebrating Women's Courageous Leadership" — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 10 a.m.: Virtual discussion with Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister SUN CHANTHOL — Wilson Center, 10:30 a.m.: The story behind climate security and what it means for US foreign policy — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 11 a.m.: Accelerating U.S. nuclear leadership — Hudson Institute, 11 a.m.: Bangladesh: What's next? — George Washington University Elliott School of International Affairs, 12 p.m.: The ethics of sanctions, deterrence, and nuclear proliferation — Georgetown University, 12 p.m.: Gaza, Israel's system of domination and U.S. complicity — Inter-American Dialogue, 7:30 p.m.: 2024 “Leadership for the Americas Awards Gala” Thanks to our editor, Heidi Vogt, who is stepping up her purchases of U.S. military equipment. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is tirelessly scrutinizing Heidi’s military acquisitions.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3® MSE: World's Most Advanced Air Defense Missile
Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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