| | | | |  | | By Andrew Desiderio | Presented by Chevron | With an assist from Caitlin Emma WHAT WERE THEY THINKING? That's the question on everyone's minds this morning as House Democrats try to make sense of the Progressive Caucus' embarrassing Ukraine episode. The group released a letter signed by 30 lawmakers urging President Joe Biden to engage in direct talks with Russia to reach a negotiated settlement to end its assault on Ukraine; hours later, Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) defended the letter and clarified its intent; the next day it was retracted, with Jayapal blaming her staff even though she personally approved its release, as we first reported . The letter was initially circulated over the summer and the signatories were blindsided when it was released publicly on Monday. Some even said they wouldn't have signed it today. The saga frustrated Democrats who, two weeks out from the midterms, were looking to use Ukraine as a wedge against Republicans in various races after House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), likely the next speaker if his party takes over the majority, suggested that a GOP-led House might not continue funding Ukraine's defense. The Democratic in-fighting complicates the argument from top Democrats that their party is united when it comes to the U.S. response to Russia's war on Ukraine while Republicans bicker over future U.S. funding to the besieged ally. In her retraction statement, Jayapal called the letter a "distraction" and acknowledged that it "created the unfortunate appearance" that Democrats weren't unified even though they've unanimously backed military and humanitarian aid packages. Your fill-in Huddle host recently spoke with Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) about Ukraine as a campaign issue, with the outspoken foreign-policy whiz urging his fellow Democrats in tight races to "message aggressively" about Ukraine to disaffected center-right voters "who would be horrified to learn that the Republican Party is contemplating leaving Ukraine to die." In our conversation last week, he added: "My advice to candidates would be to use this with voters that care about American security. In races where 1 or 2 percent will matter, this could be dispositive in a handful of races." Biden, too, has sought to frame it as an election issue, telling reporters earlier this month that he's "worried" about Ukraine aid if Republicans take the House. Did Democrats just blow that opportunity? It's possible. Murphy, for his part, agrees with most Democratic lawmakers that the letter was a bad idea and said sitting down with Vladimir Putin "risks legitimizing his crimes and handing over parts of Ukraine to Russia in an agreement that Putin won't even honor." It's also an inescapable fact that the progressives' endorsement of a negotiated settlement aligns them with Donald Trump. The Ukrainian government vehemently opposes direct talks with Putin because it would, as Murphy hinted at, likely require Kyiv to give up territory to Russia that's not theirs to have.
| | | | A message from Chevron: The fuels of the future can come from unexpected places. Find out how Chevron is working with partners to convert the methane from cow waste into renewable natural gas. Learn more. | | | So where does this leave some key Senate races? Obviously, Ukraine isn't a top-five issue for voters — though the war itself and the West's response to it are certainly contributing to a global energy crisis and inflation, which are at the top of voters' minds. In the Ohio Senate race, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has been hammering his GOP opponent J.D. Vance for saying "I don't really care what happens to Ukraine" and suggesting at a recent debate that Taiwan is worth defending but Ukraine isn't. Vance would be replacing one of the Senate's most outspoken Ukraine supporters, Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), and there are other GOP candidates in key House and Senate races who are more aligned with the Trumpian wing on foreign policy. The staying power of the West's support for Ukraine will be a defining issue of the 21st century, even if it seems like a backburner topic in this year's midterms. Both parties will do what they need to do in order to get a leg up, but it's pretty clear Democrats blew this chance — and they even admitted it. We've talked to several lawmakers and aides over the past few days who summed up the party's thinking like this: Why would you endorse negotiations — and float sanctions relief! — when Putin continues to show he has no interest in good-faith talks, is actively committing war crimes and illegally annexing Ukrainian territory? With top Republicans openly suggesting it'll be tougher to pass more Ukraine aid under a GOP majority, Democrats might have just negated the issue with their own faux-pas. READ MORE — House progressives retract Russia-diplomacy letter amid Dem firestorm | | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, October 26, where your fill-in Huddle host is getting himself mentally prepared for the World Series and keeping his sanity intact when the Phillies defeat the Astros in six games. (Yes, that is my official prediction.) #RingTheBell DEMS ASSAIL GOP SAFETY NET PLANS: As the GOP hints it will try to use the debt limit as leverage next year for spending cuts and entitlement reforms, Democrats are jumping in to pepper the airwaves with ads that warn Republican plans would be dangerous for retirees. A number of recent negative ads hammer Republican proposals to reform Social Security and Medicare, including a plan backed by most House Republicans that would gradually raise the eligibility age for the two safety net programs in order to bolster their long-term solvency. In New Hampshire: House Majority PAC, for example, is out with new ads attacking Republican Karoline Leavitt in the Granite State. Leavitt, who's challenging Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, has said she supports raising the eligibility age for Social Security. One of the latest ads features two seniors sitting at their dining room table. "How much longer does she expect us to work?" the woman asks. "She might not need it, but we do," the man says. In Michigan: House Majority PAC has released radio ads slamming Republican Paul Junge, who's running against Democratic Rep. Dan Kildee, for being absent from the state, arguing that Junge will "give tax breaks to millionaires, like himself … while putting Medicare and Social Security at risk." In one of the ads, the narrator says, "Paul Junge's first vote in Congress would be for the Republican leaders who want to hurt mid-Michigan seniors." Budget bonus: The campaign arm for Senate Budget Chair Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and the House Budget Committee are also out with their own YouTube missives, warning that Republicans are coming after entitlements if they win back the House.
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DEBATE CORNER — Senate candidates in Pennsylvania and Colorado squared off in key debates last night, and they couldn't have been more different. In the Keystone State, the conversation between Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D) and Dr. Mehmet Oz (R) was dominated by Fetterman's inability to communicate effectively as he recovers from a stroke, and Oz's eyebrow-raising answer on abortion. (Of note: Fetterman's campaign said it raised more than $1 million in the three hours after the debate ended.) Out west, Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and Joe O'Dea (R) had a largely civil debate focused on substantive policy issues. Pennsylvania's contest was the only one we'll see before Election Day, while Bennet and O'Dea will meet again in a few days.
The coverage: POLITICO … Philadelphia Inquirer … Colorado Public Radio RELATED: " Democrats scramble to avert shock Senate loss in Washington state ," by POLITICO's Natalie Allison; " Dems' working-class struggles shake Nevada — and threaten the whole party ," by POLITICO's Elena Schneider; " Cortez Masto, the Senate's Most At-Risk Democrat, Fights to Hang On in Nevada ," by The New York Times' Catie Edmondson. GUV TRACK — Several gubernatorial races could prove pivotal for key Senate races, Burgess writes this morning with a Columbus dateline. For example, both Fetterman and Vance stand to benefit from their parties' nominees for governor: Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and Mike DeWine in Ohio. While both states' Senate races are incredibly close, Shapiro and DeWine both appear on track for easy victories in November. As Burgess writes, split-ticket voting is rare in politics, so the overwhelming strength of some gubernatorial nominees could help the Senate candidates they're tied to. It's not just those two states; GOP gubernatorial candidates in Georgia and New Hampshire could also give a boost to the party's Senate nominees there. And in Colorado, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis could help lift Bennet, though he's in a safer position. Read more . NARA v. GOP — The National Archives on Tuesday pushed back against Republicans' assertions that its Justice Department referral related to Donald Trump's possession of classified presidential documents was partisan in nature. GOP lawmakers have pointed to the timing of the referral — Feb. 9 — and noted it was the same day that House Oversight Committee Chair Carolyn Maloney (D-N.Y.) wrote a letter to NARA asking for information about Trump's handling of those documents. Debra Steidel Wall, the acting archivist, wrote to House Republicans this week that the timing was "entirely coincidental," adding: "At no time and under no circumstances were NARA officials pressured or influenced by Committee Democrats or anyone else." Kyle and Nick have more . | | | | LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today . | | | | |
TRANSITIONS
Rodney Kazibwe is now Deputy Director of Government Relations for the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition. He most recently was the Foreign Affairs Legislative Assistant to Rep. Colin Allred (D-Texas) and is a Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) alum. TODAY IN CONGRESS Zip. AROUND THE HILL All is quiet.
| | | TUESDAY'S WINNER: Jon Deuser correctly answered that the five universities that produced both a president and a Super Bowl-winning quarterback are: Michigan, Stanford, Delaware, Miami of Ohio, and the Naval Academy. TODAY'S QUESTION, from Bridgette Harrison: What is the only U.S. state that has never elected or appointed a woman to Congress? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Please send your answers to Nicholas Wu at nwu@politico.com. He will be your fill-in Huddle Host tomorrow. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. Follow Andrew on Twitter @AndrewDesiderio
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