| | | | |  | | By Gary Fineout | Hello and welcome to Wednesday. Situational awareness — Gov. Ron DeSantis has been touting Republican voter registration gains in recent campaign stops, but state election officials this week posted final numbers ahead of the Nov. 8 election that detail the GOP advantage. Getting wider — Republicans continue to build on their lead over Democrats a year after the GOP first caught and surpassed their rivals for the first time in the modern history of the state. In November 2021, there were 6,035 more active registered Republicans than Democrats. That gap has now ballooned to 305,590. There are 14.5 million registered voters overall. Conclusion — In other words, whatever Democrats are trying to do isn't working. What's going on? — There's a lot of explanations for the ongoing shift, ranging from DeSantis' successful messaging to the influx of new people moving in from other states to Republicans making it a priority. Some Democratic insiders also contend that they lack the money and infrastructure to mount massive voter registration efforts even though Florida Democratic Party chair Manny Diaz has consistently asserted that he is putting together a permanent team to do voter outreach and register Democrats. Consider this — Just four years ago, Democrats had a nearly 264,000 voter registration advantage in an election where DeSantis won the governor's race by more than 30,000 votes and Rick Scott ousted Sen. Bill Nelson by slightly more than 10,000 votes. In 2020, the Democratic advantage had shrunk to slightly more than 134,000 votes. Donald Trump won the state by 3 percentage points. Trendlines — A range of recent polls have shown that Republicans in Florida are poised to have a big victory in less than two weeks with several predicting that DeSantis could win by double digits. Charlie Crist, who is challenging DeSantis, during television appearances on Tuesday tried to brush off the numbers. "It's going to be tight. It's going to continue to close, frankly," Crist said on ABC. The new voter registration numbers are another datapoint that would suggest otherwise. — WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget for Playbook? Get in touch: gfineout@politico.com
| | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | NEW POLL: DESANTIS UP 14 — The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab is out with a new poll of likely voters that shows DeSantis leading Crist, 55 percent to 41 percent. That same poll has Sen. Marco Rubio with a significant lead over Rep. Val Demings: 54 percent to 43 percent. "Given DeSantis's historic fundraising and popularity among Republicans, his lead in this race is not surprising," said Michael Binder, the research lab faculty director and UNF professor of political science. "The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount." Past performance — UNF's polling came under some scrutiny back in August when the organization had Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried with a slight lead over Crist heading into the Democratic primary. Crist wound up crushing Fried. But this most recent poll — which has a margin of error of plus/minus 4.7 percent and was done Oct. 17 through Oct. 24 — is more in line with other recently released polls. WATCHING AND WAITING — " Trump allies take note of DeSantis non-commitment to serve a second term ," `by Palm Beach Post's Antonio Fins: "[Former President Donald] Trump confidant Roger Stone said it is DeSantis' 'prerogative' to decide whether he seeks the Republican nomination in 2024. But Stone said he would 'urge' DeSantis to 'remember that he owes his nomination and election [as governor in 2018] to President Trump who endorsed him in the primary and then dragged him across the finish line in the general election.' Stone praised DeSantis's debate performance saying he did 'extraordinarily well.' Stone said the governor 'has a strong record' and 'came out on top' on the clashes with Crist over COVID lockdowns and homeowner insurance." MEANWHILE — " Cuban Americans in Miami prefer Trump To DeSantis, and other FIU Cuba poll takeaways ," by El Nuevo Herald's Nora Gámez Torres: "A majority of Cuban Americans in Miami Dade disapprove of President Joe Biden's handling of key issues like the economy and Cuba policy and intend to overwhelmingly support Republican candidates in the midterm elections, according to a poll by Florida International University released on Tuesday. Just 30% of Cuban Americans living in the county support Biden, compared to the 42% who on average backed the president in national polls conducted in September. A strong majority (64%) of respondents to the FIU Cuba poll, a telephone survey of political attitudes in the Cuban-American community that takes place every two years or so, also said they would back the reelection bids by Gov. Ron DeSantis and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio." GEARING UP — The non-Trump 2024 field starts to make their moves , by POLITICO's Meredith McGraw: Republicans with an eye on the presidency are sending not-so-subtle signals about their plans for the 2024 cycle — and they're not all waiting for Donald Trump to make up his mind. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is building out a national donor network. Former Vice President Mike Pence is giving speeches about his vision for the GOP. Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) moved a key aide to his political operation. Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin campaigned in Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan. And Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), Nikki Haley, and others have made visits to critical early voting states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
|  Florida's Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks during a debate against Democratic opponent Charlie Crist, at Sunrise Theatre in Fort Pierce, Fla., on Oct. 24, 2022. Presidential aspirants running for reelection to their current jobs while dreaming of the highest office in the land often face a dilemma during their campaigns. (AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell) | AP | GAME PLAN — " If DeSantis wins and runs for president, would he have to resign. There are options ," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas: "DeSantis has done little to tamp down speculation that he plans to run for president. Polls show he is a party favorite, and his campaign has steered more than $61 million to the Republican Party of Florida, which could return it to a federal DeSantis campaign in the future. So, if DeSantis wins reelection and pursues a campaign for president in 2024, will he have to resign his governorship to run? By all indications, the answer is yes, said Jon Mills, constitutional law professor at the University of Florida." LOW GRADE — Sierra Club gives DeSantis a D- on environment , by POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie: Sierra Club Florida on Tuesday gave Gov. Ron DeSantis another D-minus score on the environment just two weeks before the election. The Sierra Club, which already has endorsed former Gov. Charlie Crist in his bid to win back the governor's mansion, knocked DeSantis in its "score card" on the governor for actions taken since 2019, including signing a bill that year authorizing three new toll roads…. The DeSantis campaign responded by listing its own environmental highlights of the governor's term along with a statement from DeSantis saying he's made good on a promise to "leave Florida to God better than we found it." — " These 15 Florida voters think Ron DeSantis is going places, like it or not ," by New York Times — " Senator Rubio holds rally in Jacksonville as early voting is underway ," by News4Jax's Renee Beninate — " Appeals court places Pasco School Board candidate back on ballot for now ," by Tampa Bay Times' Jeffrey S. Solochek — "' Voter Confidence Tour' of Florida supervisor of elections offices kicks off in St. Petersburg ," by Florida Phoenix's Mitch Perry — " Charlie Crist speaks about rival DeSantis, the fight to be Florida's governor: 'I'm a uniter ,'" by ABC News
| | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | 'THE RULE OF LAW HAS PREVAILED' — Florida judge orders DeSantis to hand over migrant flights records , by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: A Florida judge on Tuesday found that Gov. Ron DeSantis' office is not following the state's public records law and ordered the administration to turn over records connected to the migrants flights from Texas to Martha's Vineyard within the next 20 days. Circuit Judge J. Lee Marsh rebuffed arguments from the governor's lawyers that they should be allowed to wait until Dec. 1 to hand over records, including phone and text logs belonging to James Uthmeier, the governor's chief of staff who was involved in the operation to fly nearly 50 mostly-Venezuelan migrants to the vacation island. TALLY SPECIAL — " Chair of Florida's gambling board turned to gaming lobbyist for job recommendation ," by Miami Herald's Mary Ellen Klas: "John MacIver, who was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to chair the new five-member commission to regulate gambling in Florida, is one of 14 lawyers whose names were forwarded to the governor last week to choose from as he fills four vacancies on the state appellate court. MacIver's application included recommendations from 10 people, one of whom stands out: Nick Iarossi, a Tallahassee lobbyist close to the governor who is also one of the state's top gambling lobbyists. He is chief lobbyst for bestbet Jacksonville and is the Florida lobbyist for Las Vegas Sands, the mega gambling company that sought to land a casino in Jacksonville."
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | ...HURRICANE HOLE... | | 'WE ARE LOOKING FOR AN ANSWER' — " Collier commissioners frustrated over lack of temporary housing for Ian victims ," by Naples Daily News' Laura Layden: "Frustration is growing in Collier County about how long it's taking FEMA to provide trailers for residents displaced by Hurricane Ian. After hearing an update on Ian recovery at a county commission meeting Tuesday, Chairman Bill McDaniel expressed disappointment that it didn't include any news of a "housing mission" by the federal agency. In answer, Dan Summers, the county's emergency services director, explained the many challenges FEMA faces in providing temporary housing and how it must justify the need. He said FEMA remains 'very guarded' about its plans for many reasons." THE TOLL — " Ian's damage to Florida agriculture as high as $1.8 billion ," by The Associated Press: "Hurricane Ian caused as much as $1.8 billion in damages to Florida agriculture last month, state agriculture officials said. The Category 4 storm caused between $1.1 billion and $1.8 billion in losses to the state's crops and agriculture infrastructure when it tore through the peninsula after landing in southwest Florida, according to a preliminary estimate released Monday by the Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services. The agency's estimate was in the same range as a University of Florida preliminary estimate released last week that put Florida's agriculture loss as high as $1.5 billion." — " Ian boosts Florida's jobless claims. State scraps 'waiting week' for unemployment pay ," by News Service of Florida
| 
Fifth generation farmer Roy Petteway looks at the damage to his citrus grove from the effects of Hurricane Ian on Oct. 12 in Zolfo Springs, Fla. Agriculture losses in Florida from Hurricane Ian's high winds and drenching rains could reach $1.56 billion, with citrus, cattle, vegetable and melon operations among the hardest hit, the University of Florida reported in a preliminary estimate. | AP Photo/Chris O'Meara | | | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | TO COURT — " Citing parents' rights, man sues Palm Beach County schools over LGBTQ flags in classroom ," by Palm Beach Post's Katherine Kokal: "The parent of a seventh-grade student has sued the Palm Beach County School Board, demanding two LGBTQ+ pride flags be removed from his son's classroom and claiming the teacher was 'proselytizing' to computer science students about homosexuality. Frank Deliu, a Wellington resident who was once suspended from practicing law for 15 months in New Zealand, said in the suit filed last week that he was forced to ask for his son to be removed from the class. His family is Orthodox Christian, and they believe homosexuality is a sin, he said. Deliu called the pride flags 'offensive' and said they amounted to 'brainwashing' of his son." MORE DETAILS — "' My son has never voted': Mom rejects Rubio's claim that politics motivated Hialeah attack ," by Miami Herald's Sarah Blaskey and Nicholas Nehamas: "Diana Rosa Lopez isn't sure exactly what started the fight between her son and an ex-white supremacist canvassing for Sen. Marco Rubio outside her home in Hialeah Sunday. But Lopez, a registered Republican, says it wasn't about politics — despite a viral tweet from Rubio claiming that his canvasser was attacked because he worked for the GOP. 'My son doesn't know anything about politics. He likes fishing,' Lopez told the Miami Herald in a Tuesday interview at her house. 'My son has never voted.'" — " Second man arrested for attacking Rubio supporter; first suspect remains in jail ," by NBC 6's Chris Hush PATHWAY — " Social media, influencers are Cuban Americans' main source of Cuba news, FIU poll finds ," by Miami Herald's Andres Viglucci: "Spanish-language social media and so-called influencers on YouTube and other platforms are rapidly becoming the chief source of news and information about Cuba among Cubans and Cuban Americans in Miami-Dade County, displacing the old standbys of radio and television, Florida International University's new Cuba poll has found. The poll, conducted regularly since 1991, focuses principally on parsing Cuban-American views on U.S. policy toward Cuba and its Communist government, including subjects such as the long-running trade embargo." — " DeSantis' 'reform board' spares Broward Schools superintendent Vickie Cartwright ," by South Florida Sun-Sentinel's Scott Travis — " As Manatee County ends red-light camera program, drivers warned to obey the law ," by Sarasota Herald-Tribune Jesse Mendoza | | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — " Attorney who fought Florida helmet laws died in motorcycle crash while not wearing one ," by Tampa Bay Times' Natalie Weber: "[Ron] Smith didn't like being told what to do and valued his independence, said Dave Newman, who met the attorney through an American Legion post in Old Town where they were both members. 'He thought everybody should have their own choice,' Newman said. In 2000, Smith's aspiration was realized when the Florida Legislature passed a law allowing motorcyclists over 21 to go without head protection as long as they had $10,000 in insurance coverage for motorcycle accident injuries." BIRTHDAYS: Monica Russell with KPMG US … Author and journalist Tyler Bridges | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment