| | | | | | | | | | | Axios Sneak Peek | | By Alayna Treene, Hans Nichols and Zachary Basu · Oct 26, 2022 | | Welcome back to Sneak. Smart Brevity™ count: 1,010 words ... 4 minutes. | | | | | | 1 big thing: Dems grasp for third rail |  | | | Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios | | | | In a Hail Mary bid to dent Republican credibility on the economy, Democrats are escalating attacks related to Social Security and Medicare in a final midterm stretch dominated by signs of a growing red wave, Axios' Andrew Solender reports. Why it matters: The strategic shift comes after Democrats spent the better part of the summer and early autumn campaigning on a heavily abortion-focused message that polls suggest is now falling flat compared to issues such as inflation. - "Democrats have no unified economic message, it just doesn't exist. There's no agenda," said one Democratic strategist working on House campaigns.
- "In [the] absence of saying, 'Here's what we stand for' … your only choice is to attack what the other side has."
Driving the news: In a speech at the DNC on Monday, President Biden used the phrase "Social Security and Medicare" 11 times — seizing on reporting that some Republicans want to use the debt ceiling to extract entitlement cuts. Behind the scenes: The DCCC has sent House campaigns message-testing from Data for Progress showing that Social Security "is one of the best-testing issues for Democrats," according to emails shared with Axios. - "We've been pushing this issue, I think, since July," Data for Progress spokesperson McKenzie Wilson told Axios. She said it's "mildly frustrating" entitlements are only now figuring prominently in Democrats' messaging: "I wish it had been picked up earlier, but I'm glad campaigns are doing it now."
- The Democratic strategist working on House campaigns told Axios: "I never said the word 'Social Security' in a press release, in a statement, before three … [or] four weeks ago."
Zoom in: House Republicans' rollout last month of the "Commitment to America," which includes a vague pledge to "save and strengthen Social Security and Medicare," was an inflection point, according to Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.). - Democrats have also pointed to Senate GOP campaign chief Rick Scott's (R-Fla.) agenda, which proposes sunsetting all federal legislation after five years, and the Republican Study Committee's budget proposal, which suggests raising the ages of eligibility for Medicare and Social Security.
|     | | | | | | 2. 👀 Part II: Don't look back |  Data: Quorum. Note: Data gathered daily digitally from official press releases, newsletters, floor statements, and social media posts and analyzed weekly. Chart: Tory Lysik/Axios Visuals Democrats' economic messaging has largely focused on their legislative record — emphasizing their accomplishments, such as the Inflation Reduction Act, rather than offering a clear forward-looking platform, Andrew writes. - It was only days ago that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi provided a rare glimpse into Democrats' policy agenda if they keep the majority.
- "Our message is that we're going to build on what we've already done," Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) told Axios, pushing back on the notion that voters have been left guessing about Democrats' economic vision.
Between the lines: Seasoned Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg told Politico that touting those accomplishments is the party's "worst performing message," given the acute economic challenges many Americans are still experiencing. By the numbers: Congressional Democrats' mentions of inflation, drug pricing, and Social Security and Medicare in official communications spiked in August as Congress was voting on the IRA, according to data from Quorum. - The legislation included a provision allowing Medicare to negotiate prescription drug prices, which was heralded by Democrats as a major victory.
- After the bill passed, mentions of all three issue areas dropped precipitously. But — unlike the others — references to Social Security and Medicare began to spike again in October, suggesting Democrats have rallied behind it as their most potent closing message.
Share this story. | | | | | | | | 3. ☀️ Dem flips socialist charge in Little Havana | | Democratic challenger Annette Taddeo (L) and Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) Photo: Manny Hernandez/Getty Images; Bonnie Jo Mount/The Washington Post via Getty Images A Democratic challenger in a crucial South Florida U.S. House race is accusing her Republican opponent of embracing socialism by pushing to ban books and abortion — flipping the script on an attack typically leveled against her own party, Axios' Russell Contreras reports. Why it matters: Perceptions of a soft or sympathetic stance toward socialism carry extra punch in Florida, an increasingly red-leaning state where communities of Cuban and Venezuelan expatriates represent a significant voting bloc. What's happening: Freshman GOP Rep. María Elvira Salazar (R-Fla.) is still favored to win in Florida's 27th congressional district, but is on the defensive after missteps, exaggerations, and charges of hypocrisy led to a polling surge for her Democratic opponent, state Sen. Annette Taddeo. - "This election will determine if we remain a beacon of freedom or we become a socialist dictatorship," Tadeo said in an ad last month, in which she cited her family's escape from Marxist guerrillas in Colombia.
- The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund has spent $2 million on TV advertising to defend the seat, making it one of the super PAC's priciest reservations.
Keep reading. | | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Start a new morning habit | | |  | | | | In just 10 minutes, catch up on the important news and interesting stories you won't hear anywhere else with host Niala Boodhoo. Each weekday morning, get the latest in everything from politics to space to race and justice. Listen now for free. | | | | | | 4. 📺 Spot du jour: Fetterman's consolation prize | | John Fetterman's halting performance in the Pennsylvania Senate debate last night was — by virtually all accounts — Democrats' worst nightmare. - But one viral sound bite from Republican Mehmet Oz — in which the celebrity doctor said abortion decisions should be left to "women, doctors, local political leaders" — has handed Fetterman a golden cudgel to wield in TV ads for the next 13 days.
- President Biden even got in on the action, tweeting: "If Dr. Oz gets his way, where does this end? Would he recommend local officials make decisions about cancer treatments? Colonoscopies? Or is this kind of scrutiny reserved just for women?"
💰 Fetterman's campaign says it's raised more than $2 million since the debate, while Oz today poured an additional $2 million of his own cash into his campaign account. | | | | | | | | 5. 🇮🇱🇺🇸 Parting shot | | Photo: Israeli Govt Press Office (GPO)/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images President Biden met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog today at the White House, less than a week before Israel's latest elections. - Both men are proud sons of Ireland: Herzog's grandfather, Yitzhak HaLevi Herzog, was the first Chief Rabbi of the Emerald Isle.
| | | | | | | | A message from Axios | | Start a new morning habit | | | | | | | | In just 10 minutes, catch up on the important news and interesting stories you won't hear anywhere else with host Niala Boodhoo. Each weekday morning, get the latest in everything from politics to space to race and justice. Listen now for free. | | | | 📬 Thanks for reading. This newsletter was edited by Zachary Basu and copy edited by Patricia Guadalupe. |  | | Are you a fan of this email format? It's called Smart Brevity®. Over 300 orgs use it — in a tool called Axios HQ — to drive productivity with clearer workplace communications. | | | | | | Axios thanks our partners for supporting our newsletters. If you're interested in advertising, learn more here.
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