Wednesday, October 26, 2022

〽️Some Traders Expect the Market to Crash Higher – Here’s Why

Good morning. We're still anticipating the market to truly move out of its bearish trend as soon...
It's the monthly jobs numbers today and they're not going to be pretty and will be possibly the tip of the iceberg as we head into May.

Good morning. We're still anticipating the market to truly move out of its bearish trend as soon as the Federal Reserve pivots from hiking interest rates. That's likely on track after the next two meetings to wrap up the year. However, some traders see the Fed making a move akin to the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market earlier this month.

Akin to Operation Twist back in 2012, some expect the Fed to continue talking about hiking interest rates – while also intervening in the bond market to better control yields there. If that happens, we could see markets calm down – and potentially even jump higher as traders close out of short positions.

Until that's more than just talk, however, we're likely still working out an exact market bottom in the coming months. We still see plenty of trading opportunities on the short side, with prices also low enough for long-term buyers to be happy here.

Now here's the rest of the news:

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MARKETS
DOW 31,836.74 +1.07%
S&P 3,859.11 +1.63%
NASDAQ 11,199.12 +2.25%
*As of market close
Stocks rallied again on Tuesday, following strong earnings from a number of big-cap stocks.
Oil rose 0.5 percent, closing at $85.00 per barrel.
Gold rose 0.3 percent, last going for about $1,658 per ounce.
Cryptocurrencies rallied, with Bitcoin at $20,253 at the stock market close.

Today's TOP TIPS
Stick With What the World Needs in a Slowing Economy
It's no surprise that when the economy is slow, consumers and companies scale back on their spending. And there's a whole world of defensive industries that tend to fare well no matter what the economy is doing.

While trade and commerce may slow during a recession, goods still need to move from their manufacturing point to the end user. And right now, the only way for goods to reach their final point is by truck.

» FULL STORY

Insider Trading Report: RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX)
Magnolia Capital Fund, a major owner of RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX), recently added 18,934 shares. The buy increased the fund's holdings by just under 1 percent, and came to a total cost of just over $344,000.

This is the sixth buy that the fund has made since June. Otherwise, the last insider activity occurred in March 2021, when a company executive last sold shares. Activity was fairly quiet when shares were rising amid the latest real estate boom.

» FULL STORY

Unusual Options Activity: Aehr Test Systems (AEHR)
Shares of semiconductor test systems company Aehr Test Systems (AEHR) have declined 2 percent in the past year, as a massive drop gave way to a recovery rally. One trader sees another drop ahead.

That's based on the March 2023 $22.50 puts. With 142 days until expiration, 2,016 contracts traded compared to a prior open interest of 101, for a 20-fold rise in volume on the trade. The buyer of the puts paid $5.35 to make the bearish bet.

» FULL STORY

IN OTHER NEWS
Home Price Growth Continues to Slow

The latest Case-Shiller home index data shows that home prices rose 13 percent year-over-year in August. That's a decline from the 15.6 percent growth shown in July. The data indicates that the recent jump in home prices is slowing, and that process is likely to accelerate given the rapid rise in mortgage rates.
Bank CD Returns Hit 4.5 Percent

Banks are raising the interest rates on deposits as interest rates continue to rise. Some banks are now offering certificates of deposit (CDs) as high as 4.5 percent. CDs have been out of favor as an investment in the past few years amid historically low rates. However, these high rates are offered through brokerage divisions to high-net-worth clients.
Top Companies Laid off Thousands During the Pandemic

An inquiry in the House has revealed that many large companies laid off thousands of workers during the pandemic. And that workers without access to paid leave benefits were the most likely to quit during that time. The subcommittee recommends universal paid-leave and better data recording to prevent such an event in a future economic disaster.
McDonald's Announces McRib "Farewell Tour"

McDonald's (MCD) has announced that its seasonal McRib is returning to menus at the end of the month. The company states that this could be the last time the pork sandwich returns, citing it as a "farewell tour." The company typically offers the product at the end of the pork season, when prices for the meat are at their lowest.
Amazon Adds Venmo Payment Functionality

Tech giant Amazon (AMZN) has announced that it will allow customers to make payments via Venmo on its platform. The option will be rolled out by Black Friday ahead of the busy shopping season. Studies have shown that Venmo users tend to shop more frequently than the average shopper.

S&P 500 MOVERS
TOP
CNC  10.21%
IQV  9.456%
CRL 8.424%
ISRG 7.627%
BBWI 7.414%
BOTTOM
BRO 11.985%
CDNS 4.949%
WRB 4.037%
CVS 3.08%
SNPS 2.542%

Quote of the Day
It's all about earnings, and in our view, earnings are coming in, honestly, at or below expectation. To a large degree, as the next two weeks go, so too will the broad market go.
- Terry Sandven, chief equity strategist at U.S. Bank, on why the next few weeks of earnings season could set the stage for the market's performance for the rest of the year.

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