| | | | |  | | By Ryan Lizza and Eugene Daniels | | | With help from Eli Okun and Garrett Ross
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John Fetterman takes part in a campaign event in York, Pa., on Saturday, Oct. 8. | Matt Rourke/AP Photo | | | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | Let's state the obvious: JOHN FETTERMAN struggled to effectively communicate during his one and only Senate debate with MEHMET OZ Tuesday in Harrisburg. THE STAKES — We don't usually dwell on a single debate in a single race, but this one is different. Control of the Senate, and the future of policymaking in Washington, may hinge on the outcome of the Fetterman-Oz race. The conventional wisdom over the summer was that Oz was a deeply flawed candidate who couldn't win, but the race is a toss-up . Republicans just decided to pour an additional $6 million into Pennsylvania to help Oz. "We believe if we win Pennsylvania, we win the majority," STEVEN LAW, who runs the most important Senate GOP super PAC, told POLITICO Tuesday . And then Fetterman failed to meet even the low expectations his own campaign set for him Monday in a memo that predicted "awkward pauses, missing some words, and mushing other words together" as well as "temporary miscommunications at times." WILL IT MATTER? — Voters are not doctors. Many are myopic, distracted, and quick to make judgments with limited information. If there's one thing everyone knows about campaign debates, it's how superficial they are. We all remember RICHARD NIXON's suspicious stubble and GEORGE H.W. BUSH 's impatient glance at his watch and AL GORE's annoying sighs and DONALD TRUMP's manic interruptions more than anything any of them said. The median voter in Pennsylvania is a middle-aged white person with a mid-five-figure salary who did not attend college. That demographic is perhaps the least likely to be following the Fetterman ableism debate on Twitter and MSNBC. A casual voter tuning in Tuesday night might have known Fetterman had suffered a stroke, but that voter would have to have been following the race pretty closely to know that his struggles with speech reflected a common "auditory processing disorder," in his doctor's words, and not a deeper neurological infirmity. It's obvious that Rep. DAN CRENSHAW is sightless in one eye or that Sen. TAMMY DUCKWORTH lost her legs. Nobody questions whether those injuries have an impact on their ability to serve in Congress. But Fetterman's disability is different. It prevents him from performing adequately in a candidate ritual — the campaign debate — that has long been associated, correctly or not, with electability and effectiveness in Congress. The plain fact is that Fetterman was not capable of debating Oz. He could have skipped the debate, as some Democrats suggested he should have after it was over, but the Fetterman campaign gambled that the media would educate voters about his auditory issues and then referee any attacks on him with charges of ableism. THE TRANSPARENCY ISSUE — But reporters are not doctors either. And Fetterman again declined Monday night to release comprehensive medical records about his condition. Instead he has gone the Trumpian route and issued a letter from his doctor, who has not made himself available to reporters. Fetterman's initial lack of transparency about the seriousness of the stroke five months ago has heightened media skepticism. But even if you take his health claims at face value, how are reporters to score his debate performance? How much of his trouble communicating was due to the stroke, and how much of it was that he didn't have answers? BUT, BUT, BUT — There are two well-worn cliches about debates: (1) They are rarely won but can sometimes be lost. (2) They are decided by the coverage in subsequent days rather than on debate night itself. Fetterman clearly lost last night. "[T]he biggest issue was John Fetterman's health and his ability to comprehend speech, and to then speak coherently on the issues of the day," said LELAND VITTERT of NewsNation, which sponsored the debate, in what was typical of the immediate coverage. But the Fetterman campaign is betting that Oz will lose the all-important post-debate conversation. Fetterman has a potent weapon: Oz's statement that abortion should be left up to "women, doctors, local political leaders." The Fetterman campaign immediately seized on the line, promising it "will be putting money behind making sure as many women as possible hear Dr. Oz's radical belief that 'local political leaders' should have as much say over a woman's abortion decisons as women themselves and their doctors." More than $1 million poured in from online donors in the hours after the debate, the campaign announced . Meanwhile, Oz is so far being careful not to directly attack Fetterman's communication stumbles. The Oz campaign's initial post-debate attacks centered on Fetterman's flip-flop on fracking, an important issue in Pennsylvania, but not the most important. So it's not inconceivable that the Oz abortion gaffe could be more enduring than Fetterman's lack of coherence. The headlines … "Fetterman struggles during TV debate with Oz," by Holly Otterbein "John Fetterman's performance was center stage in lone Pa. Senate debate against Mehmet Oz," Philly Inquirer "Fetterman struggles in rapid-fire debate format as he and Oz trade well-worn barbs," PennLive "Fetterman, Showing Stroke Effects, Battles Oz in Hostile Senate Debate," NYT "For Fetterman, contentious exchanges, verbal struggles in debate with Oz," WaPo "The Fetterman-Oz Debate Was a Rorschach Test," by The Atlantic's John Hendrickson
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See how Meta is helping build the metaverse. | | | Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line with your Oz-Fetterman hot takes: Rachael Bade , Eugene Daniels , Ryan Lizza . ALMOST THERE — 13 days left until Election Day. … 10,578,755 early votes already cast as of 10:31 p.m. Tuesday, per the United States Elections Project . DEBATE NIGHT (ELSEWHERE) IN AMERICA … — In the Colorado Senate race: "Drowsy debate in sleeper Colorado Senate race that could determine upper chamber majority," by Fox News' Houston Keene — In the New York gubernatorial race: "Hochul, Zeldin both take swings in only debate in tightening governor's race," by Anna Gronewold … "Hochul-Zeldin debate: In their own words," Spectrum News — In the Michigan gubernatorial race: "Whitmer, Dixon duel over abortion, COVID orders, gas tax in final debate," by the Detroit News' Beth LeBlanc, Craig Mauger and Riley Beggin … "Whitmer, Dixon highlight differences in final Michigan governor debate," by the Detroit Free Press' Paul Egan
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| For much of 2022, the Washington Senate race appeared to be the stretch that Republicans just couldn't reach. Five-term Democratic incumbent PATTY MURRAY did everything a five-term Democratic incumbent in a solid-blue state needed to do, raising lots of money, spending it early and otherwise taking her GOP opponent — star recruit TIFFANY SMILEY — quite seriously. Murray beat Smiley in Washington's Aug. 2 jungle primary by more than 350,000 votes, and public polling routinely through September showed Murray with a healthy lead. But a recent Seattle Times poll showed Murray dipping under the crucial 50 percent mark, if only by a point, and with voter sentiment nationally trending toward Republicans, Murray and her allies are taking no chances, Natalie Allison reports this morning . A super PAC affiliated with EMILY's List added $2.4 million in Washington spending last week, coming to the aid of a longtime ally and maintaining a Democratic spending advantage in the final weeks of the contest. Is it just an abundance of caution? Or is it the latest sign of an incipient GOP wave? Depends who you ask, of course. Natalie tells Playbook that Murray has made no obvious missteps in recent weeks. "To whatever extent Tiffany Smiley has gained ground in Washington, it seems it's because of the national environment trending toward the GOP," she said. "Independent voters are breaking with Republicans as Election Day draws near, and as the economy (and in some places, crime) hasn't improved." BIG PICTURE MIDTERM MARKERS — As we enter the final weeks of the midterm campaign, here's a snapshot of two key indicators from our weekly POLITICO/Morning Consult polling. Toplines … Crosstabs 1) Biden's approval rating: The president's overall approval number ticks down one percentage point this week, from 44% to 43%. That includes a three-point drop among Democrats (from 83% to 80%) and two-point dips for independents (35% to 33%) and Republicans (11% to 9%).
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| — Related read: "Biden's poor approval ratings weigh on undecided voters," by Brittany Gibson 2) The generic congressional ballot: Democrats get some breathing room in the theoretical race this week, matching their high point of 47% support, compared to Republicans' 42%. Last week, Democrats held a razor-thin margin, 45% to 44%.
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| BRACE YOURSELF — "If These Poll Results Keep Up, Expect Anything on Election Night," by NYT's Nate Cohn JUST POSTED — "That Cardboard Box in Your Home Is Fueling Election Denial," by ProPublica's Justin Elliott, Megan O'Matz and Doris Burke: "Flush with profits from their shipping supply company, [DICK and LIZ UIHLEIN] have emerged as the No. 1 federal campaign donors for Republicans ahead of the November elections, and the No. 2 donors overall behind liberal financier George Soros. The couple has spent at least $121 million on state and federal politics in the last two years alone, fighting taxes, unions, abortion rights and marijuana legalization." COOL PRESENTATION — "What more than 1,000 political ads are arguing right before the midterms," by WaPo's Harry Stevens and Colby Itkowitz WAKING UP IN VEGAS — Nevada, once the shining example of the modern multiethnic Democratic coalition, has turned into ground zero for the party's struggles with working-class voters regardless of race. "The immediate consequences could be losses for [Sen. CATHERINE] CORTEZ MASTO and [Gov. STEVE] SISOLAK, as reflected in public polling that shows them stuck in deadlocked races. But Democrats' challenges in Nevada illustrate a broader problem for the party: It's relying more than ever on college-educated, white suburbanites, though other groups outnumber them by significant margins in most battleground states," our colleague Elena Schneider reports this morning . — Related read: "Cortez Masto, the Senate's Most At-Risk Democrat, Fights to Hang On in Nevada," by NYT's Catie Edmondson in Enterprise, Nev. BATTLE FOR THE SENATE TAKEN FOR GRANITE — Just days after MITCH McCONNELL's Senate Leadership Fund pulled its financial support for New Hampshire Republican Senate nominee DON BOLDUC , the NRSC is jumping back into the Granite State contest with a new $1 million joint ad buy with the Bolduc campaign, Axios' Josh Kraushaar reports . NRSC Chair RICK SCOTT says internal polling "shows that this race is in the margin of error and winnable." CAUGHT ON TAPE — A new clip from TUCKER CARLSON's documentary on Arizona GOP Senate nominee BLAKE MASTERS shows the candidate taking a call from Trump the day after a debate. "I heard you did great at the debate — but a bad election answer," Trump says. "Look at KARI [LAKE] …If they say, 'How is your family?' She says, 'The election was rigged and stolen.'" Watch the 2:06 clip, via NBC's Vaughn Hillyard MUCK READS — "J.D. Vance Has a Burnt Monkey Testicle Problem," by Rolling Stone's Tim Dickinson … "Walker's chicken firm tied to benefits from unpaid labor," by AP's Bill Barrow
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | BATTLE FOR THE STATES WAY DOWN-BALLOT — As Americans determine who controls the House and Senate next month, more than 140 ballot initiatives will also be in front of voters across the nation. Our colleagues Liz Crampton and Marissa Martinez tick through some of the most contentious and high-profile initiatives , like those that will decide who can legally smoke weed and use "magic mushrooms," whether to increase taxes on the rich and if it needs to be easier to form a union. — Related read: "Arizona medical debt measure could be a model for Democrats nationwide," by Megan Messerly LIFTING ALL BOATS — The coattails of MIKE DeWINE and JOSH SHAPIRO are worth watching in the coming weeks as the Republican in Ohio and Democrat in Pennsylvania could help boost their party's Senate candidates in their respective states. But the dynamics are a bit murkier in other key states like Georgia, New Hampshire, Arizona and Iowa, Burgess Everett reports this morning . HOT POLLS — Georgia: Democratic Sen. RAPHAEL WARNOCK leads Republican HERSCHEL WALKER, 49% to 47%, among likely voters, according to an ECU Center for Survey Research poll . Meanwhile, in the gubernatorial race GOP Gov. BRIAN KEMP leads Democrat STACEY ABRAMS 51% to 44%. — North Carolina: GOP Rep. TED BUDD leads Democrat CHERI BEASLEY in the Senate race, 46.9% to 43.1%, per a new Cygnal poll . And in the state Supreme Court elections (which will determine abortion access and redistricting), Republican RICHARD DIETZ leads Democrat LUCY INMAN, 48.8% to 42.4%, and Republican SAM ERVIN leads Democrat TREY ALLEN, 49.4% to 42%. — Ohio: Republican J.D. VANCE leads Democratic Rep. TIM RYAN in the Senate race, 48.3% to 44.2%, per a new Cygnal poll . HOT ADS Via Steve Shepard — Pennsylvania: A man from Scranton says Oz "probably thinks 'NEPA' is a winery in California" in Fetterman's latest ad . — Missouri: Democratic Senate nominee TRUDY BUSCH VALENTINE concedes that she "grew up lucky" in her latest ad , which features her walking with two Clydesdales. "But I chose a life of service, becoming a nurse, helping abused children and seniors in hospice."
| | BIDEN'S WEDNESDAY:
9 a.m.: The president will receive the President's Daily Brief.
10:30 a.m.: Biden will deliver remarks on providing relief to families.
12:45 a.m.: Biden will host a bilateral meeting with Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG.
3 p.m.: Biden will meet with Defense Department leaders.
7:30 p.m.: Biden will participate in a virtual political reception for Rep. MATT CARTWRIGHT (D-Pa.).
8 p.m.: Biden will participate in a virtual political reception for Rep. CYNTHIA AXNE (D-Iowa).
8:30 p.m.: Biden will participate in a virtual political reception for Nevada Democrats.
Press secretary KARINE JEAN-PIERRE will brief at 2 p.m.
VP KAMALA HARRIS' WEDNESDAY (all times Eastern):
1:20 p.m.: The VP will deliver remarks on clean school buses in Seattle with EPA Administrator MICHAEL REGAN.
4 p.m.: Harris will deliver remarks at a finance event with Sen. PATTY MURRAY (D-Wash.).
4:50 p.m.: Harris will depart Seattle to return to D.C.
The HOUSE and SENATE are out. | | | | | | NEW AND IMPROVED POLITICO APP: Stay up to speed with the newly updated POLITICO mobile app, featuring timely political news, insights and analysis from the best journalists in the business. With a fresh look and improved features, the sleek and navigable design offers a convenient way to access POLITICO's scoops and groundbreaking reporting. Don't miss out on the app you can rely on for the news you need, reimagined. Already a POLITICO app user? Upgrade today! DOWNLOAD FOR iOS – DOWNLOAD FOR ANDROID . | | | | | PHOTO OF THE DAY
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President Joe Biden receives his Covid-19 booster during an event on the White House campus on Tuesday, Oct. 25. | Evan Vucci/AP Photo | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | CONGRESS HEADS UP — Senate Majority Leader CHUCK SCHUMER and Speaker NANCY PELOSI on Tuesday invited Israeli President ISAAC HERZOG to address a joint meeting of Congress to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the founding of the State of Israel, which is coming in May. Semafor's Kadia Goba reports that Pelosi "personally handed" Herzog the letter in a private meeting. Read the letter MORE POLITICS 2024 WATCH — The shadow campaign for the GOP presidential nomination is well underway. That's not unusual with two years to go, but Meridith McGraw writes this morning that "the intensity with which it's now taking place on the GOP side of the ledger is an indication that the presidential primary will begin in haste shortly after the midterms. … It also suggests that some presidential aspirants and party bigwigs believe there is a brief window to try and define the contest before Trump himself jumps in." — "Dodge, deny or fib: Candidates stay vague on 2024 plans," by AP's Will Weissert: "Some, like Florida Republican Gov. RON DeSANTIS, evade the question, as he did at a Monday night debate. … Others, like South Dakota Gov. KRISTI NOEM, leave wiggle room, saying her 'plans' are to serve for four more years." — Meanwhile, California Gov. GAVIN NEWSOM's team is reportedly "giving thought to him delivering a major post-mortem speech about politics in the first few weeks after Election Day," Puck's Theodore Schleifer reports . WHAT HRC IS UP TO — Schleifer also has the scoop on HILLARY CLINTON's latest venture: the Hillary Rodham Clinton Leadership Project. "The new Clinton initiative will both highlight what Clinton has already done, particularly for women around the world, and serve as a new home for Clinton to talk about her own philanthropic work going forward — on democracy, global health and leadership development." JAN. 6 AND ITS AFTERMATH WHO MIGHT BE TALKING SOON — DOJ is asking a federal judge to force former Trump White House lawyers PAT CIPOLLONE and PATRICK PHILBIN to testify "about their conversations with the former President, as it tries to break through the privilege firewall Trump has used to avoid scrutiny" over his actions on Jan. 6, CNN's Katelyn Polantz, Sara Murray and Evan Perez report . "The disputes — conducted under seal in court because they involve grand jury activity — may also spawn several more court fights that will be crucial for prosecutors as they work to bring criminal charges related to Trump's post-election efforts." THEN THERE'S THIS — "'Absolutely F—ing Not.' Trump's Team Scrambled to Talk Him Out of Jan. 6 Testimony," by Rolling Stone's Asawin Suebsaeng and Adam Rawnsley
| | | | A message from Meta:   | | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD HOW IT HAPPENED — When Biden took his trip to Saudi Arabia this summer, aides in the White House thought it was the culmination of a deal to bump up oil production for the remainder of the year, right in time for a midterm boost. But then the rug was pulled and OPEC+ cut production. The fallout was swift, and the response from both sides was ugly. "What happened over the last half-year is a story of handshake agreements, wishful thinking, missed signals and finger-pointing over broken promises. Far from rebuilding a relationship with a leader Mr. Biden had once pledged to treat as a 'pariah' after the murder of journalist JAMAL KHASHOGGI, the outcome has been another low point in America's tumultuous ties with Saudi Arabia," NYT's Mark Mazzetti, Edward Wong and Adam Entous report . DANCE OF THE SUPERPOWERS — "China's thirst for U.S. natural gas triggers new fears," by Gavin Bade: "The mounting political and economic pressures are testing the limits of U.S. government efforts to create a global market for American energy, a policy that's been in effect only since President Barack Obama and Congress lifted a decades-long ban on foreign sales of U.S. oil and gas in 2015." WAR IN UKRAINE ON THE GROUND — "Ukrainian forces advance against Russian fighters in Kherson and Bakhmut," by WaPo's Mary Ilyushina and Emily Rauhala THE VIEW FROM KYIV — "Ukraine's defense minister 'optimistic' about new tanks, fighter jets from allies," by Paul McLeary BIG INVESTIGATION — "Inside the hospitals that concealed Russian casualties," by CNN's Eliza Mackintosh, Sebastian Shukla and Sarah-Grace Mankarious BEYOND THE BELTWAY THE MIGRANT FLIGHTS — "Florida judge orders DeSantis to hand over migrant flights records," by Gary Fineout: "Circuit Judge J. LEE MARSH rebuffed arguments from the governor's lawyers that they should be allowed to wait until Dec. 1 to hand over records, including phone and text logs belonging to JAMES UTHMEIER, the governor's chief of staff who was involved in the operation to fly nearly 50 mostly-Venezuelan migrants to [Martha's Vineyard]." THE LATEST IN ST. LOUIS — "School gunman had AR-15-style weapon, 600 rounds of ammo," by AP's Michael Phillis and Jim Salter
| | | | JOIN WOMEN RULE THURSDAY FOR A TALK WITH DEPARTING MEMBERS OF CONGRESS: A historic wave of retirements is hitting Congress, including several prominent Democratic women such as Illinois Rep. Cheri Bustos, House Democrats' former campaign chief. What is driving their departures? Join POLITICO on Oct. 27 for "The Exit Interview," a virtual event that will feature a conversation with departing members where they'll explain why they decided to leave office and what challenges face their parties ahead. REGISTER HERE . | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | Conor Kennedy, the grandson of RFK, said he just returned from fighting in Ukraine . Dave Matthews is playing a concert for John Fetterman. Paul Ryan helped ring the New York Stock Exchange bell . Todd Young might be saying, "Dude, where's my car?" IN MEMORIAM — "Neema Roshania Patel, Post editor who cultivated younger audiences, dies at 35," by WaPo's Adam Bernstein: "Neema Roshania Patel, a founding editor of The Washington Post's news site for millennial women, The Lily, and most recently an editor with the Next Generation audience development team working to cultivate a younger and more diverse readership, died Oct. 24 at a hospital in Washington. She was 35. The cause was gastric cancer, said her husband, Akshar Patel." OUT AND ABOUT — Ashley Biden spoke at an event on Tuesday night in honor of Meredith Fineman's book "Brag Better," ( $15.38 ) at The Line Hotel. While Biden was speaking with Fineman, she made some comments that caught our attention: On her brother Hunter Biden: "It is a different ballgame these days, and the cruelty and the unkindness is like nothing I've ever seen. … I would like you to raise your hand if you know one person in active addiction who makes responsible choices. Right? And so they're not going to find anything." On police reform: "I have to be honest, police reform is really needed. 'Defund' is not in my opinion the most constructive thing to call it. Right? So if you think about it, if you say to me I'm going to defund social workers, regardless of what the hell you're saying … they're hearing you say you're trying to take away my salary … You have to be able to work with the other side." On the midterms: "If we don't win the Senate and House in the midterms, it's over, of what we're really going to be able to do in the next two years." SPOTTED: Patrice Willoughby, Jade Womack, Erica Loewe, Amy Nathan. Kate Bennett, Jonathan Martin and Meridith McGraw. — Stacy Kerr hosted a gathering to celebrate former Nancy Pelosi chief of staff John Lawrence's new book, "Arc of Power: Inside Nancy Pelosi's Speakership, 2005–2010," ( $33.94 ), at Penta's downtown roof deck on Tuesday night. SPOTTED: Bart Gordon, Henry Waxman, Alexandra Veitch, Nadeam Elshami, Paul Kane, Kevin Madden, Tom Manatos, Gideon Bragin, Michael Long, Amy Rosenbaum, Keith Stern, Dick Meltzer, Liz Bourgeois, Sam Rayburn, Carmela Clendening, Micaela Fernandez Allen, Carlos Sanchez and Brendan Daly. MEDIA MOVE — Dan Hoffman is now VP of brand strategy and creative director of TV for Newsmax Media. He previously was executive creative director and producer at CNBC and is an A&E and ESPN alum. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Former U.S. Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan is joining Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service as a distinguished fellow. STAFFING UP — Bruce Belliveau is now senior consultant in the outreach and business development division of the Loan Programs Office with DOE. He most recently was principal at Roman Arch Clean Energy Finance. TRANSITIONS — Jeff Farrah is now executive director with the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association. He previously was general counsel with the National Venture Capital Association. … Chad Schumacher is now director of government affairs at AeroVironment. He previously was senior manager of government affairs at Lockheed Martin. … John Tuttle is now special assistant in the office of the secretary at HUD. He most recently was Mid-Atlantic, abroad and PAC finance director at the DNC. … Jeremy Konyndyk is joining Refugees International as president. He previously was executive director of USAID's Covid-19 Task Force and a senior adviser to USAID Administrator Samantha Power. WEEKEND WEDDING — Alexander Grieve, VP at Tiger Hill Partners and a John Boehner alum, and Elizabeth DiVincentis, owner and principal at Briarwood Strategies and national finance chair for Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), got married at the Mayflower Inn in Washington, Conn., on Saturday. They met in D.C. through a mutual friend in early 2018. Pic … Another pic BIRTHWEEK (was Tuesday): Steve Duchesne HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Hillary Clinton … Reps. Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) and Troy Carter (D-La.) … Katy Tur … POLITICO's Rebecca Kern and Danielle Nguyen-Feldman … Jef Pollock of Global Strategy Group … Scott Jennings …Caroline Cunningham … Jeff Rubin of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy … NYT's Mark Landler and Taffy Brodesser-Akner … Hazen Marshall … Tom Johnson … Jessica Church … Perry Apelbaum … Amanda Smith … Kim Waskowsky of Rep. Steve Chabot's (R-Ohio) office … Aiden O'Connell … Isabelle Bock of Rep. Mike Levin's (D-Calif.) office … Seth Morrow of Targeted Victory … USA Today's Caren Bohan … Richard Yamada … Christine Stineman … Craig Frucht of Ascend Digital Strategies … Betsy Hoover … Courtney McNamara of the International Executive Service Corps … Kristin Lynch … NBC's Bianca Brosh Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn't happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and producers Setota Hailemariam and Bethany Irvine.
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