Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Where the slim House margin might matter most

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Nov 27, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Anthony Adragna

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With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.).

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), the incoming number two Senate Republican, has been one of the most outspoken in using the Congressional Review Act. | Jonah Elkowitz for POLITICO

LET’S GO CRA-ZY (AGAIN)

Republicans are vowing an all-out war in the opening days of the next Congress against Biden administration regulations in areas as varied as energy, financial, housing and education policy.

They’re hoping for a redux of 2017 and 2018, when Republicans used their unified control of government and the powers of the Congressional Review Act to ax 16 regulations. With a coming 53-47 majority, GOP senators say they’re again primed to use the CRA, one of their most potent tools to undo Democratic policies — and one that tends to unite the often fractious Republican conference.

But — and it’s a major but — an extremely narrow House margin could make things hard to pull off, at least for the first couple of months of the Trump administration. While the GOP could lose as many as three votes in the Senate with Vice President-elect JD Vance (R-Ohio) casting tie-breakers, the House very well be at a one-vote margin until early April (more on that math below).

Still, that hasn’t dampened Republicans’ enthusiasm around the CRA.

We're going to want to go and evaluate everything that fits into the jurisdiction” of the 1996 review law, incoming Senate Whip John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) told Inside Congress. Invoking it involves passing simple-majority votes in both chambers plus a presidential signature, no filibusters allowed.

President Joe Biden’s administration recognized this looming threat and prioritized early completion of rulemakings to shield them from congressional challenge. Still, dozens of regulations were finalized after Aug. 1, 2024, leaving them vulnerable to the CRA, according to Public Citizen, which closely tracks the potential use of the law. (That corresponds to the date identified by the Congressional Research Service after which rules might be vulnerable to revocation.)

Barrasso’s hardly alone with vows of aggressive use of the tool, which had only been successfully used once before Trump’s first term.

“We’ll do every possible regulation we can get to,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) said. “It's a wonderful tool for undoing the bureaucratic excess of the Biden administration.”

“On some of these crazy policies we ought to just get rid of them as fast as we can,” said Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.), who said he’d instructed his staff to find regulations that may be good targets for challenges.

“This is the only time the Congressional Review Act actually has teeth, otherwise it’s a messaging vehicle,” Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) said, referring to the first months of a new trifecta, since using the CRA effectively requires one party to control the presidency and both chambers of Congress, a relatively infrequent occurrence in modern politics.

But what’s also rare is a low-single-digit-margin in the House, meaning that GOP leaders will need to keep defections almost nonexistent if they are hoping to match or exceed their record from 2017.

— Anthony Adragna

GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Nov. 27 where we’ll wish all of our readers a wonderful Thanksgiving, however you’re marking the day.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Dec. 2.

 

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JOHNSON’S NEXT BIG HEADACHE: MANCHIN-STYLE REPUBLICANS

Speaker Mike Johnson is staring down what could be a one-vote majority to enact the House GOP agenda in the first months of the second Trump era. The practical effect will be that every member of his conference has the potential to be the next Sen. Joe Manchin or Kyrsten Sinema, who had outsized power to snarl Democrats’ priorities under President Joe Biden.

Who will have the biggest sway in the tiny House GOP majority?

  • Frustrated conservatives: There are scores of examples just this Congress of a small bloc of conservative lawmakers sinking legislation because it didn’t align with their ideology, didn’t slash spending enough or failed to include their favored policy provisions. Three hard-liners on the Rules Committee — Reps. Chip Roy of Texas , Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Ralph Norman of South Carolina — often prevented legislation from hitting the floor and are poised to be headaches again for Johnson next year. 
  • SALT-y big staters: Republicans from the high-tax states of New York, New Jersey and California are vowing to try again to expand the federal deduction for state and local taxes as part of any tax bill next year, after a GOP Congress capped it in 2017. They’ll have big leverage if they want to flex it, though conservatives have generally opposed all efforts to sweeten the deduction. Look for potential pressure from members including Mike Lawler of New York, Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey and Young Kim of California.
  • Higher office aspirants: Republicans who run for state-wide office back home could deplete Johnson’s stable of votes if they’re out of Washington campaigning. Lawler, Reps. Kevin Hern (Okla.) and Byron Donalds (Fla.) are seen as potential candidates for governorships. It will be an attendance factor to keep an eye on for expected tight votes.
  • The actuarial caucus: Not to ruin your Thanksgiving dinner prep, but one undercooked dinner plate could sideline enough House Republicans to (temporarily) prevent votes on controversial legislation. Three members of the House (all Democrats) passed away during the current Congress. There will be 13 members of Congress at the start of the next session older than 80, including three Republicans: Hal Rogers of Kentucky, John Carter of Texas and Virginia Foxx of North Carolina

When will we know what Johnson has to work with? After three weeks of counting, Democrat Adam Gray moved ahead of GOP Rep. John Duarte on Tuesday night in California’s Central Valley. If that lead holds, as well as those in two other uncalled races, Republicans would likely have a 217-215 majority in the House for much of Trump’s first 100 days, given the expected departures of Republican Reps. Michael Waltz of Florida, Elise Stefanik of New York and Matt Gaetz of Florida. And a reminder: A 216-216 vote would fail.

— Anthony Adragna

 

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MARKEY’S PREEMPTIVE IDEA

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Mass.) has a bold idea to defang Trump’s vow to go after his political opponents: preemptive pardons.

“If it’s clear by Jan. 19 that [revenge] is his intention, then I would recommend to President Biden that he provide those preemptive pardons to people, because that’s really what our country is going to need next year,” Markey said in an interview on Boston Public Radio.

He’s relying on some controversial history to make his case.

Markey argued that President Gerald Ford’s pardon of former President Richard Nixon “allowed our country just to close that chapter and to move on to a new era” and that Biden might be in the “same situation.”

Ford’s decision was immediately derided as a corrupt bargain at the time, forced him to become the first sitting president to testify before the House in more than a century and is cited as one of the main reasons he lost the 1976 presidential election. Views on the pardon have softened over the years — with one-time critic Bob Woodward later calling it “an act of courage” that Ford made a “very compelling argument” for.

The office of Sen.-elect Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), a frequent target by name of Trump, pointed to earlier comments he made batting aside the suggestion of preemptive pardons by Biden.

“I would urge the president not to do that,” Schiff said on NPR on Nov. 20. “I think it would seem defensive and unnecessary.”

— Anthony Adragna

 

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HUDDLE HOTDISH

Virginia Foxx made a special Christmas tree delivery to the White House this week.

Chuck Schumer is the latest senior Democrat to join Bluesky.

Richard Neal is watching the Macy’s Thanksgiving Day parade for one specific marching band. (Tim Scott and Marsha Blackburn are watching for other bands.)

As expected, “FAITHFUL BETH DELIVERED” again for Chuck Grassley.

QUICK LINKS 

Did Libertarians spoil the GOP’s chances of a bigger House majority? from Ally Mutnick How Ruben Gallego Threaded The Needle In Purple Arizona, from Daniel Marans in HuffPost

Capitol Hill’s DOGE-era power players, from Jordain

Bipartisan senators press leadership for disaster aid vote next week, from Aris Folley in The Hill

Progressive group demands removal of Neal as top Ways and Means Democrat, from Benjamin Guggenheim

Utah senator coaches GOP aides on strategy for streamlining Trump’s agenda through Congress, from Julia Johnson in Fox News

TRANSITIONS 

*Send us your job moves*

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House is out.

The Senate is out.

THURSDAY AROUND THE HILL

Nary a gobble as Washington does Turkey Day.

Trivia

TUESDAY’S ANSWER: Glen Peterson was the first to identify milk as the other beverage allowed on the Senate floor and Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) as the lawmaker who said, “I’m drinking water. Don’t drop the dime on me on that one.” (Yes, we’ve seen other beverages confiscated from senators coming onto the floor.)

TODAY’S QUESTION: In what year did Congress formally set Thanksgiving as the fourth Thursday of November, amending the original designation of the last Thursday in November?

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

GET INSIDE CONGRESS emailed to your phone each evening.

 

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