| | | | |  | | By Eric Bazail-Eimil and Phelim Kine | |  Residents cheer following a cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah that went into effect on Nov. 27, 2024, in Hosh neighborhood, Tyre, Lebanon. | Hussein Malla/AP | Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric PROGRAMMING NOTE: We’ll be off for Thanksgiving this Thursday and Friday but back to our normal schedule on Monday, Dec. 2. We’re so thankful for all of you who take the time to read our newsletter. The Biden administration removed a major geopolitical headache from President-elect DONALD TRUMP’s to-do list in securing a permanent cease-fire deal in Lebanon. But the incoming Trump administration won’t be able to completely ignore tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as they pursue larger aims in the Middle East. AARON DAVID MILLER, a long-time Middle East peace negotiator who worked for previous Democratic and Republican administrations, told NatSec Daily that violations of the cease-fire are likely to occur and it will be up to all the parties involved — Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel and Iran — to “reduce that confrontation and conflict to a situation where you've got periodic” breaches. “It's going to be a test to the degree to which each side believes that keeping this deal is more to their interests or their advantage than allowing it to fundamentally crater,” said Miller, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. BLAISE MISZTAL, vice president of policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, added that it’s unclear how the deal’s enforcement mechanisms will be used to respond to alleged breaches of the cease-fire. The U.S. now chairs the “tripartite mechanism” that is designed to triage complaints about adherence to the cease-fire, but no information has been given as to how monitoring will occur on the ground in real-time. “You need to have this technical piece on the ground of, how are we going to identify whether there is a violation of the ceasefire? How are we going to have in place the oversight, the detection and the fusion to be able to get this information quickly to the [Lebanese Armed Forces],” said Misztal. “If this is going to work, that needs to be implemented by day 60, if not earlier.” And other questions remain — will the Lebanese army be able to keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and prevent the Iran-backed proxy group from rearming? Will there be issues with the 60-day implementation window, as the Israeli military withdraws and the Lebanese military deploys in its place? Can the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon be trusted as a stabilizing presence, given its mixed track record in stemming violence? That said, the deal appears to be holding for now. Fighting stopped at 4 a.m. Lebanon time in accordance with the deal and both Lebanon and Israel appear to be complying with its terms. And there is little risk that Trump will overturn the deal. Trump’s incoming national security adviser Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) hailed the cease-fire agreement, saying he is “glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.” A Trump-Vance transition official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told NatSec Daily that Trump “has been crystal clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is steadfast.” The official argued that Trump’s win is bringing adversaries like Hezbollah back to the negotiating table. Moreover, a senior administration official told reporters on Tuesday that Trump’s “senior national security team” was briefed about the contours of the deal and that both the Trump and Biden camps were in agreement. “They agreed that this is good for Israel, as Prime Minister Netanyahu just said, it is good for Lebanon, as their government has said, and it is good for the national security of the United States. And most importantly, doing it now versus later will save countless lives on both sides,” said the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.
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The F-35 helps secure our world. The program unites valued allies and partners, powers small businesses, and creates high-paying, high-tech jobs for workers in critical innovation fields. Learn more. | | | | | BELL TOLLS FOR DONG: Brace for more turnover at the top of China’s Defense Ministry: Defense Minister DONG JUN is the target of a corruption probe, the Financial Times reported today. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson MAO NING denied that Dong is under investigation and accused foreign media of “chasing shadows” in an exchange that the ministry excised from its daily briefing transcript. Dong has been on the job since December and met with Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue defense summit in May. Dong risks becoming the third Chinese defense minister in a row felled by corruption charges. Similar allegations led to the downfall of Dong’s predecessors LI SHANGFU and WEI FENGHE. This pattern suggests the Defense Ministry is the target of an ongoing “purge” and that more senior military officials are likely to be targets of corruption probes, said LYLE MORRIS, the former country director for China in the office of the Secretary of Defense, in an X post. A HOMECOMING: President JOE BIDEN mustered up a late-administration diplomatic victory Wednesday through the release of three U.S. citizens from Chinese prison via a prisoner exchange deal. Beijing freed MARK SWIDAN, KAI LI and JOHN LEUNG after years of intensive talks between White House and State Department officials and their Chinese counterparts, a senior administration official granted anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic negotiations told our own PHELIM KINE and ROBBIE GRAMER. The White House declined to provide details on the Chinese prisoners it swapped for the three U.S. citizens, and the Chinese embassy in Washington declined to comment. But it seems the State Department downgraded its travel advisory towards China in response to the swap, as Phelim also reports. The prisoner release follows the freeing of U.S. citizen DAVID LIN in September in a similar exchange deal for an unidentified Chinese citizen jailed in the U.S. Swidan and Li were considered “wrongfully detained” by both the State Department and the United Nations. The release of Leung — who was serving a life sentence for alleged espionage — came as a surprise given that he wasn’t officially recognized as “wrongfully detained” by the U.S. or the U.N. MUSK’S UKRAINE MISSIVE: Tech mogul ELON MUSK isn’t thrilled about reports that the U.S. is exploring another aid bill to Ukraine. Writing on X, the Trump ally, who will co-lead a new government review panel with former presidential candidate VIVEK RAMASWAMY to purportedly eliminate wasteful government bureaucracy, replied “This is not ok” to a tweet saying Biden requested another $24 billion for Ukraine. Our own CONNOR O’BRIEN and JOE GOULD scooped yesterday that Biden requested another $24 billion in assistance to Ukraine and funding to replenish depleted U.S. weapons stocks, noting that the measure faced an uncertain future in the last weeks of this Congress. IT’S WEDNESDAY: Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s global security team: @dave_brown24, @HeidiVogt, @RosiePerper, @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @reporterjoe, @JackDetsch, @samuelskove, @magmill95, and @johnnysaks130.
| | | |   | | | | | HABEMUS UKRAINE PEACE ENVOY-AM: Trump named his new special envoy for Ukraine and Russia — and it’s not former Ambassador to Germany RIC GRENELL as previously suspected. As Eric and our own JACK DETSCH report, Trump named retired Lt. Gen. KEITH KELLOGG to the role. Kellogg, who has voiced skepticism about U.S. support for Ukraine, may not completely alleviate anxieties about Trump’s ambitions for a quick resolution to the war between Russia and Ukraine, though he’s seen as a Republican who’s not particularly hostile to Kyiv. “He doesn’t want to sell out the Ukrainian people, but he wants to end the war,” said a former Trump administration official of Kellogg. “There’s people in Republican circles who are dead set on ending the war, but they haven’t really thought about the Ukrainians. He’s going to drive a hard bargain.” There’s a lot we still don’t know about how the role will function, but Kellogg is not expected to face sharp opposition from Senate Republicans if subjected to a formal confirmation process. ICYMI — Trump Cabinet nominees targeted in attacks ranging from ‘bomb threats’ to 'swatting’ by our own EMMY MARTIN.
| | HOLIDAY EVE RANSOMWARE: Software provider Blue Yonder — which is used by major retailers like Starbucks, grocery chains like Harris Teeter, shipping company DHL and tech companies such as Microsoft — was hit by a widespread ransomware attack ahead of the holidays. As our friends at Morning Cybersecurity reported this morning (for Pros!), the attack hurt some of Blue Yonder’s 3,000 customers and is the latest major ransomware attack to befall a major U.S. software provider. The timing is notable, though not unusual — ransomware attacks and other cyber mischief usually ramp up around the holidays, per CLIFF STEINHAUER, director of information security and engagement at the National Cybersecurity Alliance. “When you’re up against the wall and you’ve got 3,000 companies saying ‘this is our busiest time of year, we need you to get back online as soon as possible,’ that’s a lot of pressure,” Steinhauer told Morning Cyber. “In the attackers’ mind, they’re maximizing the pressure when they’re doing it at this time.”
| | TAIWAN’S TRUMP ADJUSTMENTS: Taiwan is messaging Trump that it has heard his critique of the island’s defense posture and is taking steps to address it. The self-governing island’s Defense Ministry has announced that it will spend at least $2.2 billion on American-supplied arms in 2025 after Trump takes office. “We welcome advice from all sides, with the most important thing being how to boost self-defense capacity,” said a senior Taiwan security official. Trump said in July that the island should pay for U.S. protection from Beijing and expressed doubts about the feasibility of defending Taiwan from a Chinese invasion. Taipei’s early commitment to buy more weapons — on top of the billions of dollars in such purchases Taipei has made over the past couple of years — looks like a signal of intent that the island will do whatever it can on its own to deter Chinese aggression. The Taiwanese are “willing to discuss whatever concerns Trump might have … and they’ve already gotten the message that they need to increase defense spending and do a lot more to prepare for their own defense,” said KHARIS TEMPLEMAN, an expert on U.S.-Taiwan relations at the Hoover Institution public policy think tank at Stanford University. Phelim has the full story in today’s China Watcher.
| | ‘HAVANA SYNDROME’ WHISTLEBLOWER CRIES FOUL: A senior Foreign Service official says the State Department is trying to force him out of his job in retaliation for agreeing to brief lawmakers about the impact of his so-called “Havana Syndrome” symptoms, PunchBowl News’ ANDREW DESIDERIO reported Wednesday. MARK LENZI, who was diagnosed with traumatic brain injuries following his medical evacuation from China in 2018, says that the State Department requested he sign a pre-drafted cable last week agreeing to a “curtailment of tour of duty” for “personal reasons.” That cable was an apparent response to his plans to inform lawmakers about his condition. Lenzi has instead asked Sen. JEANNE SHAHEEN (D-N.H.) — poised to be the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in the next Congress — and the House Foreign Affairs Committee to probe State’s alleged retaliation attempt. Most U.S. intelligence agencies concluded last year that it is “very unlikely” a foreign adversary using a weapon was responsible for health conditions associated with the syndrome. That hasn’t satisfied lawmakers or those who believe they suffer from the condition. Reps. BRAD WENSTRUP (R-Ohio) and ABIGAIL SPANBERGER introduced legislation in February to compel the Pentagon to brief the House and Senate Armed Services Committees on everything it knows about the situation.
| | MORE VENEZUELA SANCTIONS: The Biden administration unveiled new personal sanctions against Venezuelan government officials and their family members, as the White House continues to ratchet up pressure against Venezuelan President NICOLÁS MADURO to cede power to the country’s opposition. Senior administration officials (separate from the ones above) told reporters today that the barrage of personal sanctions to date means that Maduro and his allies “have never been more politically isolated.” One of the officials argued that “the signal these sanctions will send is not merely about holding Nicolas Maduro accountable, but that, in fact, regime officials who are acting unlawfully to uphold his regime based on repressive tactics will also find themselves in the crosshairs of these sanctions.” But sanctions have so far failed to nudge Maduro towards relinquishing power following July’s presidential election, where the opposition published receipts it argues show that opposition candidate EDMUNDO GONZÁLEZ URRUTIA defeated Maduro by a two-to-one margin. Maduro’s continued persecution of the opposition has prompted some to call for sanctions on the petrostate’s energy sector as a way to bring the government to the negotiating table. The officials didn’t rule out sanctions against the Venezuelan energy sector. “Just because we have not taken an action so far does not mean that we will not take an action in the future,” a second official said.
| | | | — KATHLEEN TURNER, the former Army Forces Command director of public affairs, has founded the Turner Consulting Group and is its CEO. — Austal USA named STEPHEN ADAMS, formerly of L3Harris Technologies, as its chief financial officer, and GENE MILLER, formerly of General Dynamics Bath Iron Works, as its vice president of operations. — Academy Securities named retired Lt. Gen. JOHN EVANS, the former commander of U.S. Army North, to its Advisory Board and Geopolitical Intelligence Group.
| | — CONNOR PFEIFFER and RYAN BERG, Foreign Policy: Mexico and the United States need to talk about China now — LAUREN DICKEY and MATTHEW KENT, War on the Rocks: This is not the status quo you’re looking for — JONATHAN HEAD and YVETTE TAN, BBC: ICC prosecutor seeks arrest warrant for Myanmar leader
| | — No events tomorrow or Friday. We deserve a Thanksgiving rest. Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who remains a problem for us to deal with. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, who is never a burden.
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