Wednesday, November 27, 2024

⚠️ Problems Lurk for this 13.7% Yielder

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Problems Lurk for this 13.7% Yielder

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

We last looked at Ares Commercial Real Estate (Nasdaq: ACRE) nearly two years ago. At that time, its 12% dividend yield received an "A" rating for dividend safety.

This was one of the rare times The Safety Net got an "A" rating wrong. But to be fair, the blame lies more with Ares Commercial Real Estate execution than with the Safety Net model.

One of the key variables that Safety Net considers is the Wall Street consensus estimate for cash flow or, in Ares' case, net interest income (NII).

In January 2023, Wall Street expected Ares' 2022 net interest income total to come in at $100 and climb to $110 million in 2023.

In 2023, NII reached only $89 million - 19% lower than analysts' consensus estimate.

Not surprisingly, the stock performed horribly.

Chart: Ares Commercial Real Estate's Stock Slides Following Dividend Cut in January 2024
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In January 2024, Ares reduced its quarterly dividend to $0.25 per share, from $0.33. It was the first time the company lowered the dividend since it began paying one in 2012.

Ares Commercial Real Estate has $2 billion in outstanding loans across 40 properties. Office space makes up the largest percentage of loans at 36%, followed by multifamily housing at 24% and industrial properties at 13%.

The Mid-Atlantic Northeast is its largest geography with 36% of outstanding loans, followed by the Southeast at 24% and Midwest at 21%.

This year, Ares is forecast to increase NII, but barely, to $93 million, just $4 million ahead of last year's total.

However, this isn't the first time Ares' NII is forecast to grow... (The previous forecast was about as accurate as a political pollster.)

Can the company deliver this time? If so, is Ares' dividend safe for now?

Get My Safety Net Grade Here

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