Wednesday, November 27, 2024

Is The Lithium Market Back?

Is The Lithium Market Back?

Practical Investment Analysis for the New Energy Economy

Is The Lithium Market Back?

Alex Koyfman | Nov 27, 2024

Dear Reader,

Well, it’s official… Sort of. 

The lithium market is on its way back, with much of the mainstream analyst community now in agreement that we’ve seen the bottom. 

And not a moment too soon.

For lithium investors, the road following the bubble burst in late 2022 has been a brutal one to say the least. 

We saw prices crash 80%, from more than $80k per ton to less than $20K, all while watching as the EV, wireless device and distributed energy storage markets continue to expand. 

lithium

Even after decades of observing this behavior during the various bubbles and busts of the twenty-first century, the power of herd mentality in the presumably above-average intellect sphere of investors and wealth managers still never fails to amaze me.

At various stages during the last 24 months, we saw an exodus from the lithium sector with overproduction and missed growth expectations adding to the dark cloud.

Lithium mining was hit the hardest with even the biggest name in the business, Albemarle Corp (ALB), dropping from $330 in November 2022 to just $109 today. 

It was an epic bloodletting, but remembering the immortal words of Nathan Mayer Rothschild, "Buy when there's blood in the streets, even if the blood is your own," the overall investment picture here is as clear as ever. 

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With demand for the world’s most sought-after energy metal at all time highs and set to rise for at least another decade, and prices still just off historic lows, the time for lithium investing has never been better. 

Organic demand, such as the kind that pushes nearly 2 billion wireless devices into the pockets and onto the wrists of consumers every year, will meet mandated demand, like the kind about to sweep through Europe and Asia with ICE production and sales bans set to start taking effect beginning next year.

lithium map

As a lithium investor, this is what I’ve been waiting for… The moment when post-bubble blues fade away and it goes back to business as usual - just as business as usual ramps up. 

Right now, that’s exactly what’s happening, and I’ve zeroed in on 2 stocks that will address a wide spectrum of investment philosophies. 

The first is a small cap miner that’s sitting on what is very likely the biggest single lithium deposit anywhere on Earth. 

A geological artifact left behind after an ancient eruption of the Yellowstone Supervolcano, this unique formation contains between 20 million and 120 million tons of lithium in a relatively small area straddling the Oregon/Nevada border. 

Recently awarded a multi-billion dollar loan from the U.S. Department of Energy, this future mine was first approved by president Trump back in 2020 as one of the last actions of his first term in office. 

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Much progress has been made in the years since, but with Trump now back in office and this deposit holding the potential to completely throw off the balance of the global lithium market, you can bet that things are about to go into high gear. 

The company doing the work isn’t well known, but at just under $1B market cap, it's well established and financed enough to take this project through to production. 

Once that happens, and make no mistake, it will take years, we could potentially see shares at 10x today's prices.

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Now, for those who really want to leverage the return of the lithium market, there is a smaller and more disruptive company out there that fits the bill. 

Known for pioneering a revolutionary form of direct lithium extraction, this company isn’t a miner at all, but a lithium technology company with a proprietary process that can pull lithium directly out of oilfield brine. 

With millions upon millions of barrels of lithium rich brine flowing through the oilfields of the American south and southwest every day, this company may have a magic bullet that could help turn some of the biggest oil and gas companies in North America into lithium producers. 

Don't Bother Exploring. Just Plug It In And Pump Away

It’s proven, it’s extremely efficient, and it takes just weeks to kick off new lithium production — as compared to years with traditional hard rock mining. 

Best of all, there is no exploration necessary. A brine solution can be easily measured for lithium concentration, which means it’s a simple matter of bringing in the equipment and flipping a switch. 

Production costs are among the cheapest in the business — easily competitive with the biggest, wealthiest, and most established lithium producers operating today. 

This company trades for a pittance, with a market capitalization of less than $40M. 

Once the technology is scaled to commercial magnitude — which is expected in the first half of next year — the stock could easily be pushed into the billion dollar range. 

Where there is opportunity there is also risk, and you’ll find both in great abundance here. So the next step is to get fully informed. 

Get all the pertinent info on the tech, the company, and the future of the market, right here.

Fortune favors the bold,

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Alex Koyfman

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