| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | | THIS JUST IN — “Dead even: POLITICO snap poll shows stark division on debate,” by Melanie Mason: “Asked who won Tuesday’s debate, voters were split 50-50 over whether it was JD VANCE or TIM WALZ, according to a POLITICO/Focaldata snap poll of likely voters conducted just after the two faced off in a studio in New York City. … “Democrats overwhelmingly sided with Walz, while Republicans picked Vance as the winner. Walz had a commanding advantage with independents, 58 percent of whom sided with the Minnesota governor while 42 percent gave Vance the edge. … “But Democrats shouldn’t get too giddy about his performance with this coveted demographic: Independent voters were also far more likely to say they didn’t tune in to the debate.”
|  Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance take their positions at the beginning of the 2024 Vice Presidential Debate on Oct. 1, 2024, in New York. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | THE SHOWDOWN THAT WASN’T — You’d be forgiven for tuning into last night’s debate expecting Vance and Walz to rip each other to shreds right there on stage in NYC. After all, Vance had delivered some of the most scathing criticism of Walz to date, accusing him of “stolen valor” and “actively encourag[ing] the rioters” who torched parts of Minneapolis after GEORGE FLOYD’s death. Walz, meanwhile, had called Vance “weird” and “creepy” — even making a dig on the trail about that unflattering, fabricated furniture-based myth. What we didn’t expect? A Midwest Nice debate. There were no tense clashes, no name-calling, no mentions of “Tampon Tim” or “childless cat ladies.” Both men missed opportunities to go after the other’s greatest weakness; it didn’t help that the CBS moderators missed opportunities to develop what could have been sharper exchanges. Walz, for instance, waited for a second round of immigration questions before bringing up Vance’s unproven claims about Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio — and only vaguely mentioned what he’d suggested about them. Vance didn’t bring up Walz’s record as governor on key culture war issues, such as giving undocumented immigrants key state benefits or turning his state into what the AP called a “trans refuge.” Instead, the two men went out of their way to soften their blows as they sparred. When Walz revealed his son had witnessed a shooting, Vance expressed surprise and sympathy: “I am so sorry about that! Christ have mercy!” Walz, at one point, allowed that Vance hates school shootings as much as he does — a different tone from the Harris campaign, which has suggested he’s indifferent about them. And when it was all over, the two shook hands and shared what looked like a genuinely warm conversation, introducing each other to their wives. Most of the political pros who watched the debate last night — including all of us in the Playbook group chat — called it for Vance, and the veneer of civility tended to work to his advantage. Badly trailing Walz in favorability in poll after poll, he delivered a smooth and empathetic performance — and there’s some evidence that viewers noticed. Among those surveyed last night by POLITICO/Focaldata, more than half of those who watched the debate said Vance was ready to be president — versus less than a third of those who didn’t watch. We can’t help but wonder where this version of Vance has been all summer. But as the poll’s topline showed, the atmospherics only went so far in swinging voters who by and large seem to have made up their minds five weeks out from Election Day. VANCE’S BEST MOMENT: His years spent in Yale Law School, delivering book-tour speeches and — more recently — doing scores of media interviews sparring with sometimes unfriendly interrogators paid off with a polished performance last night. He executed the basics well, making sure, for instance, to take time right off the bat to introduce himself. (Walz didn’t do that until about 40 minutes in.) And when the discussion turned to the economy, he methodically turned his answer into an indictment of Walz’ running mate, connecting Americans’ financial stress to his own personal story: “I know what it's like to not be able to afford the things you need to afford. We can do so much better.” He delivered, in short, the type of debate performance that Republicans were praying to see from Trump. He shied away from personal attacks — even the questions about Walz’s military service that he’d fanned early in the race — and instead focused on tying KAMALA HARRIS to JOE BIDEN. VANCE’S WORST MOMENT: While millions of Americans watched last night’s debate, many millions more didn’t — and their impressions of the two would-be veeps are going to be shaped by short clips of the action that are going to be shared widely online and on TV coverage over the coming days. It’s hard to see any one moment going more viral then when Walz pressed Vance on the 2020 election with a simple question: Who won? “Tim, I’m focused on the future,” he said in reply — prompting Walz to call it a “damning nonanswer.” Note that Vance was already tripped up once this campaign by freelancing an answer on a national abortion ban, suggesting Trump would veto one when he’d said no such thing (ironically, he said so last night). And it was obvious in that moment to see Vance being overly mindful of his most important viewer. WALZ’S BEST MOMENT: Beyond the telling moment pressing Vance on 2020, Walz had a handful of standout lines: He convincingly described his makeover on gun control by describing his meeting with Sandy Hook families: “They were looking at my 7-year-old’s picture on the wall. Their 7-year-olds were dead.” And he hit his marks on abortion rights, invoking specific cases to argue that under the GOP, “the right to control your own body is determined on geography.” His biggest coup, though, was persistently turning the conversation back to Trump — reminding viewers that he’d called climate change a “hoax,” that he’d solicited donations from oil executives and promised tax benefits in return, that he’d paid no taxes for years at a time and that he’d tanked a bipartisan bill that would have helped address the southern border. WALZ’S WORST MOMENT: When various Dems claimed in recent days that the Minnesota governor wasn’t much of a debater, we dismissed that as the usual pre-debate spin. Well, turns out sometimes you lower expectations for good reason. From the outset, Walz seemed incredibly nervous — far from the comfortable, folksy presence he’s exhibited on the campaign trail. And while eventually he warmed up, Walz stumbled on his words throughout, saying at one point, “I’ve become friends with school shooters.” (Yes, he meant the victims of school shooters.) But the most cringeworthy moment of the night was when moderators pressed Walz on previous, false claims that he’d been in China during the Tiananmen Square protests. (He actually went months later). Walz didn’t have an answer prepared and instead meandered through a response where he called himself a “knucklehead” and eventually acknowledged he “misspoke.” More from AP “The answer would have been best delivered in Chinese for as understandable as it wasn’t,” as DAVID AXELROD said last night. SO DOES IT MATTER? Not if you believe the polls. Beyond POLITICO’s own survey, snap polls from CBS and CNN made similar findings: The debate just didn’t move the ball much. Consider it this way: With the exception of Biden’s decision to hand the nomination over to Harris, this presidential race has been exceptionally resistant to big swings. If two conventions, two assassination attempts and a consensus presidential-debate rout aren’t going to impact the fundamentals of the race, don’t count on this to, either. Good Wednesday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from USAFacts: Americans deserve clear, trustworthy facts to make up their minds on today’s most pressing issues. In this new series, USAFacts Founder Steve Ballmer walks through the data on immigration, the economy, healthcare, and much more, to help you inform your perspective. Get the numbers, not rhetoric, topic by topic. | | | FOR YOUR RADAR — “Olivia Nuzzi accuses ex-fiance of orchestrating blackmail campaign amid RFK relationship,” by CNN’s Katelyn Polantz: “The accusations — which Nuzzi made in a filing and before a judge in Washington, DC’s Superior Court this week and which he denies — are the latest explosive twist to emerge from the fallout of her previously undisclosed relationship with [ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR.] … “[Ryan] Lizza, Politico’s chief Washington correspondent and Playbook co-author … provided a statement to CNN after being informed about the court action. “‘I am saddened that my ex-fiancée would resort to making a series of false accusations against me as a way to divert attention from her own personal and professional failings. I emphatically deny these allegations and I will defend myself against them vigorously and successfully,’ Lizza said.” A note from POLITICO EVP Brad Dayspring … “POLITICO and Ryan Lizza have mutually agreed that it is in everyone’s best interest for him to step back and take a leave of absence while an investigation is conducted.”
| | | | A message from USAFacts:   Want to know the facts on immigration, taxes and spending? Steve Ballmer, former Microsoft CEO and owner of the LA Clippers, shares facts and data, you make up your mind! | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … The drumbeat for a return to Washington to pass disaster funding moved to the Senate yesterday, with senators from six states affected by Hurricane Helene writing to party leaders and appropriators warning of economic losses running into the tens of billions of dollars. “This may even require Congress to come back in October to ensure we have enough time to enact legislation before the end of this calendar year,” the bipartisan group wrote. But FEMA and DHS officials said yesterday that they have enough money in the short term to handle the response, per Roll Call. At the White House Biden will travel to Greenville, South Carolina, where he’ll get an aerial tour of areas damaged by Hurricane Helene at 1:45 p.m. Then he’ll go to Raleigh, North Carolina, where he’ll get an operational briefing at 4:15 p.m. He’ll return to the White House in the evening. Harris will travel to and from Georgia to get a briefing/see the devastation from Helene, and talk about the federal response. On the trail Vance will be in Michigan, speaking in Auburn Hills at 1:30 p.m. and Marne at 5:30 p.m. Walz will head to Central Pennsylvania for a bus tour through Harrisburg, York and Reading, including an event with Sen. JOHN FETTERMAN.
| | | |  | | 
Russian President Vladimir Putin at a forum in Moscow on Oct. 2, 2014. | Alexey Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/AFP via Getty Images | UNDER THE INFLUENCE — Russian meddling in the election is rising to new heights, spreading misinformation online to tar Harris and Democrats, federal officials and experts tell WaPo’s Joseph Menn. Notably, even federal indictments and announcements that far-right influencers were being paid by Russian state media haven’t stopped the flow of falsehoods about Haitians, immigration, race, Harris and more. Instead, Russian-linked accounts have found other ways to spread conspiracy theories, including with doppelganger sites and likely automated social media profiles. “The continuing efforts from the trolls and automated accounts add weight to a warning by U.S. intelligence officials last week that Russia is amping up its efforts to return Trump to the White House,” which is ultimately about the war in Ukraine, Menn reports. Some experts say that, more than misinformation, they’re most concerned about the possible leak of real Harris documents. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE SITDOWN SHOWDOWN — CBS’ “60 Minutes” announced that they invited Harris and Trump for separate interviews in a big special airing Monday — and Harris accepted with Bill Whitaker, while Trump accepted with Scott Pelley and then backed out. The show said the offer remains on the table for Trump. AD IT UP — A new spot from the Harris campaign plays up Trump’s age in calling Vance an “extremist” who “could be a heartbeat away” from the presidency, NBC’s Monica Alba scooped. FACT CHECK — A Trump campaign ad in Michigan that slams Harris over electric vehicles “wildly overstates” and misleads on some of its factual claims, NYT’s Maggie Haberman reports. RACE FOR THE HOUSE FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Defend The Vote, democracyFirst PAC and EDF Action Votes are launching a $1.1 million ad campaign against Rep. SCOTT PERRY (R-Pa.), with TV and digital spots that blast Perry as an extremist and tie him to QAnon and Jan. 6. Watch it here RACE FOR THE SENATE RATINGS ROUNDUP — The Cook Political Report shifted the Texas Senate race from likely Republican to leaning Republican. POLL POSITION FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — An internal GOP poll for the Congressional Leadership Fund finds Rep. DERRICK VAN ORDEN (R-Wis.) leading his Democratic challenger 49 percent to 44 percent. Democrats have been trying to play offense here, but Republicans have Van Orden’s lead outside the margin of error. The polling memo Arizona: Trump +3, per Emerson. Trump +1, per InsiderAdvantage. … Georgia: Trump +6, per Quinnipiac. Tied, per InsiderAdvantage. … Michigan: Harris +3, per RMG Research. … Nevada: Trump +1, per InsiderAdvantage. … North Carolina: Trump +2, per Quinnipiac. Trump +1, per Emerson. Trump +1, per InsiderAdvantage. … Pennsylvania: Tied, per Emerson.
| | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD
| 
Israeli police work at a damaged school building that was hit by missiles fired from Iran in Gadera, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024. | Tsafrir Abayov/AP | MIDDLE EAST LATEST — The world is on edge in the wake of Iran’s hail of missiles against Israel yesterday, which the U.S. helped Israel largely repel, as in April. Though some of the nearly 200 missiles hit the ground, there was only one reported casualty — a Palestinian in the West Bank. Nonetheless, the U.S. and other allies are waiting to see if Iran will send more, and how Israel will respond. The Pentagon said the U.S. Navy had blasted off about a dozen interceptors to block Iranian missiles, per CNN. Biden said he had directed the military to help the U.S. block the attack, per ABC. More details from the NYT Biden and Harris kept an eye on the attack from the Situation Room, and both condemned Iran’s actions while standing in support of Israel. Now the big question is whether the U.S. can convince Israel to tamp down its response, like Biden did this spring, or whether the situation could spiral into a full regional conflict, NBC’s Dan De Luce, Carol Lee, Courtney Kube, Monica Alba and Abigail Williams report. Stopping an Israel-Iran war is the top priority for the U.S., though former officials said Israel is not likely to react as lightly as it did in April. Another ancillary concern: The warfare could send gas prices a good deal higher. They’ve already started rising, ABC’s Max Zahn notes. Politically, Republicans sought to squeeze Biden. Speaker MIKE JOHNSON said Biden is “hypocritical” because his support for Israel is belied by a too-soft approach to Iran sanctions, Olivia Beavers and Jordain Carney report. And Trump warned that Biden and Harris were steering toward World War III because they unfroze Iranian assets, Irie Sentner and Eric Bazail-Eimil report. TRUMP CARDS ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT FALLOUT — Judge AILEEN CANNON set Nov. 18 as the trial date for RYAN ROUTH, the man accused of seeking to kill Trump last month, per Reuters. THE TRUMP TRIALS — Trump’s lawyers yesterday urged Judge TANYA CHUTKAN to redact more information if special counsel JACK SMITH’s filing is made public in the criminal election subversion case against Trump, Axios’ Sareen Habeshian reports. Without evidence, the Trump team called it a “politically motivated manifesto,” indicating that the information might be explosive in the presidential race if it becomes widely known. BEYOND THE BELTWAY HELENE FALLOUT — The death toll from Hurricane Helene is now above 160, as rescuers combed through hard-to-reach areas of North Carolina and Tennessee in the search for survivors, AP’s Erik Verduzco, Jeff Amy and Kimberlee Kruesi report from Swannanoa, North Carolina. Biden said yesterday that the recovery effort could take billions of dollars, and North Carolina Gov. ROY COOPER lamented that “communities were wiped off the map.” LONG READ — “The Christian Radicals Are Coming,” by The Atlantic’s Stephanie McCrummen: “Every day, internet prophets are describing dreams of churches under attack, Christians rising up, and the start of World War III, acclimating followers to the prospect of real-world violence. And this is what awaits people under the tent [at the ‘Courage Tour’]: leaders waging an intentional effort to move them from passivity to action and into ‘God’s army.’”
| | | | A message from USAFacts:   USAFacts: Data straight from the source. | | | THE ECONOMY
| | 
Cheryl Preston chants with other ILA members during a strike at the Bayport Container Terminal on Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024, in Houston. | Annie Mulligan/AP | PORT AUTHORITY — With three dozen U.S. ports stopped up thanks to a dockworkers’ strike, the laborers could have the advantage over management, AP’s Tom Krisher, Tassanee Vejpongsa and Wyatte Grantham-Philips report from Philadelphia. That’s because the 45,000 workers on the East and Gulf coasts will benefit from recent labor victories, a tight job market, the squeeze of inflation and strong profits for the shipping companies. Hurricane Helene’s damage, combined with the upcoming holiday season, also amp up the pressure to save a strained supply chain. The White House called for a fair contract yesterday. Shortages likely won’t hit consumers for a few weeks if the strike continues. But it puts Biden and Harris in a tight spot, NYT’s Zolan Kanno-Youngs reports. Biden supports the workers and said yesterday that he won’t invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to force them back to work. But the longer this goes on, the likelier that he and Harris could suffer politically from the economic fallout and Republican pressure. The big question is whether the strike lasts for days or weeks. The collective bargaining process is ultimately out of their hands, but top officials called both sides yesterday. And “privately, senior White House aides remain wary of the economic and political fallout of a prolonged strike and have focused their own efforts primarily on pushing the two sides toward a deal — and fast,” Adam Cancryn, Holly Otterbein, Lauren Egan and Elena Schneider report. POLICY CORNER THE PURGE: ELECTION YEAR — “Have Government Employees Mentioned Climate Change, Voting or Gender Identity? The Heritage Foundation Wants to Know,” by ProPublica’s Sharon Lerner and Andy Kroll: “The conservative think tank has filed thousands of public-information requests, clogging the pipeline at federal agencies in an apparent attempt to find employees a potential Trump administration would want to purge.”
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Tommy Beaudreau was chastised by the Interior Department IG. Errol Morris has a new family-separation documentary coming from MSNBC. Jamal Simmons and Nayyera Haq are launching a new podcast, “TrailBlaze,” from Dexter Davison Productions and Politicon. OUT AND ABOUT — The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Team USA hosted a reception for more than 200 U.S. Olympians and Paralympians on Monday night, with a focus on collaborations between businesses and athletes. Max Siegel, Kristen Faulkner, Twanisha “TeeTee” Terry and Ezra Frech spoke on a panel. Also SPOTTED: EPA Administrator Michael Regan, Katherine Lugar, Brian Bernasek, Kenneth Bednarek, Pieter Quinton, Brittany Brown, Chris Crawford, Will McIntee, Michelle Russo, Rick Wade and Suzanne Clark. — Hillary Clinton presented annual awards in her name to Palestinian and Israeli peace-builders and former heads of state on Georgetown’s campus yesterday. SPOTTED at the lunch afterward, hosted by Melanne Verveer and the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security: British Ambassador Karen Pierce, Lithuanian Ambassador Audra Plepytė, Slovenian Ambassador Iztok Mirošič, Tanzanian Ambassador Elsie Kanza, Norwegian Ambassador Anniken Huitfeldt, EU Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, Icelandic Ambassador Svanhildur Hólm Valsdóttir, Greek Ambassador Ekaterini Nassika, Rwandan Ambassador Mathilde Mukantabana, Geeta Rao Gupta, Arlene Tickner, Anne Applebaum, Susan Glasser, Rachel Vogelstein, Amanda Nguyen and Marie Mattson. FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Demand Justice is adding Jen Ahearn as counsel and senior director of engagement, Tishan Weerasooriya as director of government affairs and Tom Wright as director of courts policy and legal analysis. Ahearn most recently was senior counsel in the Brennan Center’s judiciary program. Weerasooriya most recently was at Stand Up America. Wright most recently worked on nominations and vacancies for the American Constitution Society. — Rachel Levitan is joining the Harris campaign’s comms operation in Georgia. She most recently was senior adviser to the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and is a Miguel Cardona, Tom Carper and House Foreign Affairs alum. MEDIA MOVE — Daniel Bring is now managing editor of the policy journal American Affairs. He previously was an analyst at Baron Public Affairs. WHITE HOUSE ARRIVAL LOUNGE — Kevin Lima is now senior adviser for public engagement at the White House. He most recently was deputy director for the White House Initiative Advancing Educational Equity, Excellence & Economic Opportunity for Hispanics. WHITE HOUSE DEPARTURE LOUNGE — Chetan Hebbale is now managing policy adviser for greening sovereign debt at the Nature Conservancy. He most recently was policy adviser for federal clean energy at the White House. TRANSITIONS — Daniel Schwarz is now chief comms officer at Jenner & Block. He previously was SVP and head of U.S. public affairs at Hill & Knowlton (now Burson), and is a Jerry Nadler alum. … Diane Staheli is now director for emerging technology at the NSC. She most recently was assistant director for AI applications at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy. … Alessandro Terenzoni is joining Americans United for Separation of Church and State as VP of public policy. He previously was deputy director of the Office for Civil Rights in DOJ’s Office of Justice Programs. … … Cameron Arterton is joining Nareit as deputy EVP of policy and public affairs. She previously was VP of emerging companies and capital formation at the Biotechnology Innovation Organization. … Rational 360 is adding Republican strategists Ed Patru and Riley Bechdel as an SVP and VP for digital, respectively. Patru most recently was founder of Direct Communications Company. Bechdel previously was a partner at Engage, which was then acquired by Forbes Tate Partners. BIRTHWEEK (was Saturday): Jeanne Allen of the Center for Education Reform HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Reps. Hank Johnson (D-Ga.) (7-0) and Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) … Doug Andres of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s office … Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold (4-0) … John Donnelly (4-0) … NYT’s Lynsea Garrison … Lauren Belive … Michael Sinacore of Senate HELP … Michelle Sara King of the International Trade Administration … Julie Burton of the Women’s Media Center … former Rep. Mark Schauer (D-Mich.) … Charlotte Robertson … Navy’s Tom Mancinelli … Anthony Zona … 340B Report’s Shannon Young … former Comptroller General Dave Walker … New York GOP Chair Ed Cox … Bloomberg’s David Gura … FARE’s Joe Kalmin … Mary Brooks … Ben Turner of Rep. Dwight Evans’ (D-Pa.) office … Kiersten Pels of Sen. Ron Johnson’s (R-Wis.) office … Brinsley Eriksen of Trident DMG … Barry Bennett … POLITICO’s Zoë Mitchell … Ken Bazinet Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from USAFacts: All Americans are shareholders in this democracy: we contribute to the nation's coffers through tax dollars and elect representatives to write its laws. Like any shareholders, we deserve to know where the money goes and how lawmakers' policies affect society. Government data has those answers.
Founded by Steve Ballmer, USAFacts guides you through the maze that is government data. We’re a team of career researchers, data analysts, statisticians, and communication professionals. We track down government metrics in digital reports or the occasional Freedom of Information Act request. We standardize the numbers, consult designers to make clear visuals, and we refine our reports so that we share just the facts. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
No comments:
Post a Comment