| | | | |  | | By Robbie Gramer and Eric Bazail-Eimil | |  Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome air defence system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel, on August 4, 2024, amid ongoing cross-border clashes between Israeli troops and Lebanon's Hezbollah fighters. | Jalaa Marey/AFP via Getty Images | With help from Nahal Toosi and Daniel Lippman Subscribe here | Email Robbie | Email Eric Tensions in the Middle East are approaching (yet another) boiling point. Israel has vowed to retaliate against Iran for its latest ballistic missile attack, and President JOE BIDEN and his team are (yet again) seeking to prevent any potential response from spiraling into a full-scale war. As JONATHAN LEMIRE and your lead NatSec Daily host report, Biden and his senior aides are urging Israel to avoid direct attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities when it strikes back against Tehran. “The answer is no,” Biden told reporters on Wednesday when asked if he would back Israel striking Iranian nuclear sites. “They have a right to respond, but they should respond in proportion.” What’s notable here is that, unlike the Iranian attack on Israel in April, the Biden administration is no longer trying to discourage an Israeli response. Rather, it is settling for ensuring both sides are aligned on what a counter strike would look like — namely, that Israel wouldn’t hit Iranian nuclear sites that could dramatically escalate the Israel-Iran showdown. It’s the latest sign that the Biden administration is trying to strike a balance between supporting Israel and establishing a credible deterrence against Iran on the one hand, while preventing any tit-for-tat responses from escalating into a full-blown regional war on the other. It’s yet unclear whether Biden can sustain that precarious balancing act, however. All the while, Israeli Prime Minister BENJAMIN NETANYAHU has vowed that Iran will “pay for” Tuesday’s massive attack, which saw some 200 ballistic missiles targeted at Israel (though most were shot down by the U.S. and Israeli militaries). Biden is also facing criticism from both sides of the U.S. political spectrum in the waning days of his presidency: Those on the left argue he has enabled a costly Israeli campaign in Gaza and Lebanon with dire humanitarian consequences, while those on the right say he has been insufficiently supportive of Israel post-Oct. 7 and are pushing him to help Israel seek revenge. The dynamics in the Middle East have changed dramatically in recent weeks after Israel carried out a lightning offensive that appears to have kneecapped the Hezbollah militant group, Iran’s top proxy fighting force in southern Lebanon. The audacity of those Israeli strikes on Hezbollah — the specifics of which were not told to Americans in advance — could augur more military action to come. Indeed, Israel has already launched limited special forces raids into Lebanon in the first of such close-range ground engagements. “Netanyahu is showing much more willingness to take risks and gamble, and he's feeling very bold, because Israel has significantly weakened [Tehran’s] proxies, and they understand they can see that Iran is in a weaker position,” said HAGAR CHEMALI, a former National Security Council and Treasury Department official in the Obama administration. “I expect a strong response, something that is significant or achieves their own national security objectives.”
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Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | SECURITY COUNCIL, G7 TACKLE MIDEAST: Both the G7 alliance and U.N. Security Council convened today as the international community seeks to avert further escalation between Iran and Israel. But don’t get your hopes up that peace is on the horizon. Israel and Iran traded barbs at today’s U.N. Security Council meeting, as each urged the international community to restrain the other and hold the other accountable for alleged atrocities. Iranian Ambassador to the United Nations AMIR SAEID IRAVANI defended Iran’s Tuesday attack as “a necessary and proportionate response to [Israel’s] continued terrorist aggressive acts over the past two months” and slammed the U.S., France and other allies of Israel for continuing to support Israel. Meanwhile, Israeli Ambassador DANNY DANON emphasized that Israel would respond, slamming calls for de-escalation as “a false symmetry and absurd equivalence between the protector and the destroyer." Israel, he vowed, “will defend itself. We will act. And let me assure you the consequences that Iran will face for their actions will be far greater than they could ever have imagined." And the divides between the superpowers on the U.N.’s highest body were in sharp relief. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations LINDA THOMAS-GREENFIELD called on the body to “speak out with one voice and condemn Iran for its unprovoked attack against another member state, and, equally important, to impose serious consequences” on Iran for the attack. By contrast, Russian Ambassador VASSILY NEBENZIA said Iran exhibited “restraint” in its Tuesday attack. And on the G7 call, which Italian Prime Minister GIORGIA MELONI convened in the hopes of advancing a diplomatic off-ramp, Biden expressed “full solidarity and support to Israel and its people, and reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” per a readout released by the White House. A BROKEN SYSTEM: Career diplomat JENNIFER GAVITO is withdrawing herself from the nomination as the next U.S. ambassador to Libya, slamming a stunted and broken Senate confirmation process that has left dozens of ambassador nominees waiting for confirmation for months or years at a time in the process. “This very difficult decision comes 32 months since the Department of State asked me to consider the position and initiated the vetting process, 9 months since the Senate received my nomination, and only after Senate recessed for the election last week having failed for 6 months to advance now-26 career nominees out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee,” Gavito wrote in a LinkedIn post flagged by our own NAHAL TOOSI. “U.S. national security deserves better than this. There has been no U.S. Ambassador in Libya for two years, ceding space to Russia and China who have actively sought to exploit our perceived absence and destabilize NATO’s southern flank.” Gavito declined a request to comment. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee, once a bastion of bipartisan governance, has become bogged down in partisan squabbling that has left other ambassador nominees in limbo. What’s the cause? Well, the State Department blames the lawmakers, the lawmakers blame the State Department, the Republicans blame the Democrats, the Democrats blame the Republicans. A spokesperson for the top Republican on the committee, Sen. JIM RISCH (R-Id.) said that the State Department is “ignoring repeated oversight requests and creating further delays” and the Democratic majority “broke a deal” with him to move forward on a committee meeting that would have cleared 25 nominees last week. The State Department and a spokesperson for the committee chair, Sen. BEN CARDIN (D-Md.), did not respond to a request for comment. Either way, Gavito is emblematic of a wider problem that no side seems to be able — or willing — to fix. UKRAINE’S DONETSK WOES: Russia took a key town in Ukraine’s Donetsk region as it continues making advances in the country’s eastern provinces. As our own VERONIKA MELKOZEROVA reports, Russia has fully captured the town of Vuhledar, a coal mining town located at a strategic height that evaded Russian advances for two years. The occupation of Vuhledar is the latest win for Russia in Ukraine’s eastern provinces. IT’S WEDNESDAY. Thanks for tuning in to NatSec Daily! This space is reserved for the top U.S. and foreign officials, the lawmakers, the lobbyists, the experts and the people like you who care about how the natsec sausage gets made. Aim your tips and comments at rgramer@politico.com and ebazail@politico.com, and follow Robbie and Eric on X @RobbieGramer and @ebazaileimil. While you’re at it, follow the rest of POLITICO’s national security team: @nahaltoosi, @PhelimKine, @connorobrienNH, @paulmcleary, @magmill95, @johnnysaks130, @ErinBanco, @reporterjoe, and @JGedeon1
| | THE VANCE-WALZ FACE-OFF: Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz faced off Tuesday night in what was an unusually cordial and policy-heavy vice presidential debate, and foreign policy watchers were likely disappointed. There were brief early mentions of the Middle East crisis and Trump’s relationship with Putin. But other than that, there were few mentions of foreign policy, which points to a glaring gap in the election cycle: China. At both the presidential and vice presidential debates, neither of the candidates was asked about China, even though it’s considered one of the top threats to U.S. national security. That leaves a major hole ahead of the elections about what — if any — specific policy proposals both sides have come up with to deal with China (beyond the platitudes of the party platforms published online, that is). The closest NatSec watchers got to a China policy brief Tuesday night was when moderators pressed Walz on his claims he was in China during the Tiananmen Square protests. Foreign policy gets the short shrift in election debates, but this is still becoming a major source of frustration for politicos on both the left and right. “[N]ot one minute on Xi and the CCP. Not. One. Minute,” fumed conservative talk show radio host HUGH HEWITT on X about the debate. HALIFAX HEDGES ITS BETS: The Halifax International Security Forum announced two possible agendas for this year’s gathering, in a painfully obvious nod to the potential effects of either a DONALD TRUMP or KAMALA HARRIS presidency. In an email, Halifax Forum President PETER VAN PRAAGH said the conference, which is scheduled for Nov. 22-24, will either center on “Darkness Defeated: New Eras Arrive,” or “2025: Dark Eras Arrive” and potential panels on topics like Ukraine and migration are slated to match the anticipated change in political tone. There are two possible themes for the conference, he explained, in light of “the potential impact of the choices to be made in the coming days, weeks and months. Because everything is at stake,” he added, clearly alluding to the election.
| | AUSTIN’S NDAA HEARTBURN: Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN is letting lawmakers know he has some issues with the House and Senate versions of this year’s NDAA. In his annual “heartburn letter,” obtained first by our friends at Morning Defense (for Pros!), Austin listed over forty areas of sharp disagreement with the House and Senate versions of the annual defense spending bill. One of his major critiques is of both chambers’ insistence that the Navy add a second Virginia-class submarine, arguing that the push would divert focus from the next-generation fighter program and exacerbate industry delays, leaving contractors “unable to produce on a reasonable schedule.” Austin took aim at a House provision requiring a minimum of 1,106 aircraft in fighting units, arguing it would strain resources. He also criticized Senate provisions to add a new assistant secretary role and restore the role of Pentagon Chief Management Officer. And of course, Austin rejected House social-policy provisions such as restricting gender-affirming care for transgender servicemembers and Pentagon diversity, equity and inclusion efforts. The letter comes as lawmakers scramble to reconcile the two chambers’ versions of the bill and pass a spending plan for the nation’s military expeditiously after the November election.
| | | |   | | | | | WILSON TALKS RUSSIA STRATEGY: The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe released a strategy earlier this week for how the U.S. should counter Russia in Europe and Central Asia, and NatSec Daily got the chance to ask more questions about the game plan. The report, which analyzes U.S. and Russian presences and relationships in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, the Caucasus and Central Asia, among other regions, argues that the U.S. needs to beef up its efforts to respond to Russian aggression and build relationships with countries in Russia’s neighborhood — even if those efforts might seem contradictory. It also characterizes Russian leader VLADIMIR PUTIN’s recent actions towards his neighbors as “imperial.” NatSec Daily caught up with Rep. JOE WILSON (R-S.C.), the Commission’s chair, who argues that framing and context is critical to “prevent the West from self-imposed deterrence in confronting Putin’s maniacal expansionist agenda, which directly threatens America.” One of the ways that Wilson believes that the U.S. should respond is by shoring up ties with Serbia, Azerbaijan and other countries in the region receiving strong entreaties from Moscow. Those efforts have at times been criticized amid complaints of human rights abuses in those countries and continued disputes with other partners in those regions, like Kosovo. But Wilson argues that “it only benefits Putin to view these partnerships as a zero-sum game” and that the U.S. should push forward, consistent with its values. And above all, Wilson emphasizes the need to support Ukraine. Unlike others in his party, he argues that now is not the time to make a deal with Moscow, arguing that “Russia is certainly not a good-faith negotiator right now, nor does it live up to the terms of bilateral and multilateral agreements, which makes the prospect of negotiations difficult.” He added that “we can trust” Ukrainians “to make the right decisions for their people both on the battlefield and in deciding their future.”
| | NÃO OBRIGADO, GUTERRES: Israel is making a very obvious show of its displeasure with U.N. Secretary-General ANTÓNIO GUTERRES. Earlier today, the Israeli government declared the Portuguese diplomat could no longer enter the country, as our own SEB STARCEVIC reports. Israeli Foreign Minister ISRAEL KATZ wrote on X that the move to label Guterres as “undesirable” follows the U.N. chief’s failure to “unequivocally condemn Iran’s criminal attack on Israel” on Tuesday. It’s not the first time the Israeli government has lashed out at Guterres — who they have argued has not been supportive enough of Israel in the wake of the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks — as he pushes for a cease-fire in the Gaza Strip and urges Israel to exercise restraint in the region.
| | FIRST IN NATSEC DAILY — DAVID SHULLMAN is going back to the intel community where he will serve as the national intelligence officer for China, our own DANIEL LIPPMAN has learned. He most recently was senior director of the Atlantic Council's Global China Hub. — RACHEL LEVITAN is joining the Harris campaign’s comms operation in Georgia. She most recently was senior adviser to the CEO of the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation, and is a MIGUEL CARDONA, TOM CARPER and House Foreign Affairs Committee alum. — SAMANTHA GILDEA is now special assistant for China and Taiwan affairs at the National Security Council. She most recently was associate director of space policy at the National Space Council. — STEVE YATES joined the Heritage Foundation as a senior research fellow for China and national security policy at the think tank’s Davis Institute Asian Studies Center. Yates, who served as deputy national security adviser to Vice President DICK CHENEY, was also previously the chair of the America First Policy Institute’s China Policy Initiative and the president of Radio Free Asia.
| | — ANN SIMMONS, The Wall Street Journal: Spy mania sows fear among Russia’s scientists — MARIANA BUDJERYN, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists: Why Russia is more likely to go nuclear in Ukraine if it’s winning — SETH JONES, Foreign Affairs: China is ready for war
| | — Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: What's going on with Japan's election? — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, 9:30 a.m.: Book discussion on "Italy Reborn: from Fascism to Democracy" — Georgetown University Walsh School of Foreign Service's Center for Contemporary Arab Studies, 12:30 p.m.: Israel's Attacks on Lebanon: To What End? — The Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1 p.m.: Discussion on “The National Reconnaissance Office Story” Thanks to our editor, Rosie Perper, who we would not confirm to an ambassadorship if we were senators. Thanks to our producer, Gregory Svirnovskiy, whose nomination to be our chief peace envoy with Rosie and Heidi should be confirmed by the Senate post haste.
| | A message from Lockheed Martin: PAC-3® MSE: World's Most Advanced Air Defense Missile
Lockheed Martin’s PAC-3® Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) is increasing production to help our partners address evolving threats around the globe. PAC-3 MSE defends in a multi-domain environment as the most advanced air defense missile. Learn more. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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