| | | | | |  | | By Melanie Zanona | Presented by |  | | with help from Sarah Ferris I WILL SURVIVE -- The question bouncing around Washington lately has been: can Kevin McCarthy survive another term in GOP leadership if his party loses even more seats in the midterms — a scenario that is looking increasingly likely? But after interviews with more than a dozen Republican members from across the conference, the answer appears to be yes. McCarthy says he has all but locked down the votes to become GOP leader, no matter what happens on Election Day. And notably, he has already won support from his biggest former rival, Rep. Jim Jordan, who challenged McCarthy for minority leader in 2018 but is now vowing to support him in any leadership race. "I'm a pretty good vote counter. I would think I already have the votes," McCarthy told us. "I'm stronger today than at any other time I've had leadership races." Meanwhile, other would-be McCarthy successors are looking less like threats. House Minority Whip Steve Scalise has hugged Trump just as tightly as McCarthy, though Scalise is a strong fundraiser, disciplined messenger and still retains enormous goodwill inside the conference after surviving a June 2017 shooting during a congressional baseball practice. He is also expected to remain safe. And Rep. Liz Cheney, the No. 3 House Republican, is now facing questions about her own future. Her public rebukes of Trump and failed attempt to target one of her colleagues in a primary weakened her standing among conservatives. Discussions are underway about recruiting a challenger to take her on, per GOP sources, though even her detractors acknowledge the tough optics of pushing out the highest-ranking woman in GOP leadership. That doesn't mean McCarthy is without his criticism in the conference. And of course, there will almost certainly be a reckoning in the GOP — and a whole lot of finger-pointing — if there's an absolute disaster at the polls. A potential challenge to McCarthy can't be totally ruled out if Republicans lose 15 seats or more on Election Day — a worst case scenario for the party. But the reality is, ousting McCarthy would be hard. In the minority, he only needs to clinch a simple majority to become GOP leader. And the Republican conference has only gotten more conservative — and more Trumpy — in recent years. The dispatch on all the internal leadership jockeying, from your Huddle host and Bres: https://politi.co/3krFSok. | | A message from Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices: Small businesses continue to be left behind by Congress, which brings a cost of inaction. 30% of all small business owners will exhaust their cash reserves by the end of the year and 43% of Black small business owners will completely deplete their cash reserves by the end of the year. Learn more | | | DECISION DAY -- After months and months of talks, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are expected to decide today whether a coronavirus relief deal is really on the table this month. "Let's make a judgment. We may not like this or we may not like that, but let's see, on balance, if we can go forward," Pelosi said on MSNBC. Pelosi and Mnuchin plan to speak again Tuesday — after another roughly hour-long phone call on Monday — and staff will work "around the clock," Pelosi's office said. Pelosi has tasked her chairs to "reconcile differences" with the White House in their own specific areas. But, but, but ... It's still not clear if the deal could pass the Senate, where the idea of an expensive package negotiated by Pelosi is giving the GOP serious heartburn. Sen. John Thune (R-S.D.), the GOP whip, told reporters there may not even be the 13 GOP votes needed to pass Mnuchin's $1.8 trillion proposal. "I think we're going to have a hard time finding 13 votes for anything," Thune said. More from Burgess and Marianne: https://politi.co/31otMVI. Pelosi briefed Democrats on the progress of the talks earlier Monday, where she and her chairs discussed many of the outstanding details. The money quote: "I want this as soon as possible because I don't want to carry over the droppings of this grotesque elephant into the next presidency," Pelosi said on the call, sources told Heather. Related read: "As Washington scrambles for more bailout money, the Fed sits on mountain of untapped funds," by WaPo's Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein: https://wapo.st/35eMX5w. FAUCI FALLOUT -- Trump continues to create headaches for the GOP with his rhetoric toward coronavirus. During a campaign call with staff yesterday — which, mind you, was supposed to instill confidence about his re-election prospects — Trump ripped into Dr. Anthony Fauci, calling him a "disaster" and referring to health experts as "idiots." It was hardly the closing message his GOP allies have been hoping for. Some Republicans raced to defend Fauci, including Senate Health Committee Chairman Lamar Alexander, though he didn't directly mention Trump's criticism. "Dr. Fauci is one of our country's most distinguished public servants. He has served 6 presidents, starting with Ronald Reagan," Alexander tweeted. "If more Americans paid attention to his advice, we'd have fewer cases of COVID-19, & it would be safer to go back to school & back to work & out to eat." But at least one retiring Republican wasn't afraid to call out Trump by name. Florida Rep. Francis Rooney told CNN that he thinks Trump has failed the American people with the way he has handled the virus and wouldn't commit to voting for him. "I don't think there's any doubt that Vice President Biden has the right approach" on coronavirus, Rooney said. "And there's a lot of Republicans that would agree with that as well." Related read: "McConnell aims for unity amid growing divisions with Trump," via The Hill's Jordain Carney: https://bit.ly/3kfeRV3. GOOD MORNING! Welcome to Huddle, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, October 20, where your host wants to know: can we finally just end Zoom meetings!? (Not going to link to the reason I'm writing that, but google it if you're so inclined.) MONDAY'S MOST CLICKED: The SF Gates' story on Rep. Katie Porter criticizing Dianne Feinstein's handling of the SCOTUS hearings was the big winner. | | | | THIS WEEK - NEW EPISODES OF POLITICO'S GLOBAL TRANSLATIONS PODCAST : The world has long been beset by big problems that defy political boundaries, but many of those issues exploded over the past year. Are world leaders and political actors up to the task of solving them? Is the private sector? Our Global Translations podcast, presented by Citi, unpacks the roadblocks to smart policy decisions and examines the long-term costs of the short-term thinking that drives many political and business decisions. Subscribe now for Season Two, launching Oct. 21. | | | | | SCOTUS STUFF -- Yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer tried to adjourn the Senate until after the election in protest of the GOP's rushed effort to confirm Trump's Supreme Court nominee. Of course, the effort was blocked, but the procedural tactic — and forcing votes on the floor — is about all that Dems have left in the SCOTUS fight. A rundown from The Hill's Jordain Carney: https://bit.ly/35iafY6. As far as timing … with senators expected to work on Amy Coney Barrett's nomination through the weekend, it looks like a final confirmation vote could come next Monday, per Roll Call's procedural expert Niels Lesniewski. "McConnell is expected to file a cloture motion on the nomination on Friday," he writes . "That left the only real question of whether the cloture vote to limit debate would take place Sunday, which is the earliest possible time under Senate rules, or wait until Monday." Related: "Senate Republicans To Propose Constitutional Amendment Banning 'Court-Packing,'" from Jemima McEvoy of Forbes: https://bit.ly/3kaqEnL. KEEPING UP WITH THE KANSANS -- The Senate map has expanded so much for Dems that even Kansas is now in play. James Arkin has a dispatch from on the ground: "Kansas Senate candidate Barbara Bollier was a life-long Republican, but in 2018 she decided she'd had enough: Fed up by the party's lurch to the right in Washington and Topeka, the 62-year-old state legislator divorced the GOP and became a Democrat. "Two years later, she's asking Kansans to join her and do something they haven't since Franklin Roosevelt was president: elect a Democrat to the Senate — and possibly make Chuck Schumer the majority leader in the process. Bollier has a shot. "The polls are tight, and both parties are deploying precious financial resources to close the deal. Yet while the suburban revolt against Trump is likely to drive turnout and huge margins in the Kansas City suburbs, Bollier needs a lot more than that in her bid against two-term GOP Rep. Roger Marshall." More: https://politi.co/3ocooPs. Related: "GOP Senators Facing Re-Election Have a Trump Problem. Here's How They're Dealing With It," by TIME's Lissandra Villa: https://bit.ly/3jcENiP. | | | |   | | | CALLING ALL BUDGET NERDS! -- Dems are gearing up for a big budget battle next year if they sweep Washington. Caitlin Emma explains: "[T]he main event — if Democrats control the White House, Senate and House — will be budget reconciliation. Originally designed to reduce the deficit, the procedure has been used by both parties in recent years to enact a sometimes-costly agenda while evading the Senate filibuster. Republicans tapped reconciliation for their 2017 tax overhaul, while Democrats used it to pass much of the Affordable Care Act. "Senior Democrats are already eyeing the special legislative vehicle to disperse trillions of dollars in policy priorities, including for a massive infrastructure plan backed by a prospective Biden administration. 'I don't think there's any question of whether we'd use it, if we had to,' House Budget Chair John Yarmuth said in an interview. 'The possibilities are endless. I think you'd want to do it for the biggest possible package you could.'" The story: https://politi.co/3kfbQ7x. CABINET BATTLE #1 -- And the drape measuring has already begun. Joe Biden's transition team is vetting a handful of Republicans for potential Cabinet positions in a future administration, report our Megan Cassella and Alice Miranda Ollstein. While the move could encourage the kind of bipartisan cooperation that Biden has preached about during his campaign, it is almost certain to draw the ire of the progressive left. Among the GOP names being considered: "Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August's Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist." More: https://politi.co/3mh6h9h. Related: "Schumer and Biden: how a 30-year relationship shaped their work together in 2020," via Emily Munson of the Times Union: https://bit.ly/3obiGgH. | | | | GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter. | | | | |
|  | TRANSITIONS | | Janet Rossi will be deputy chief of staff/legislative director for Rep. Kay Granger (R-Texas). She previously was deputy chief of staff for Rep. Rob Woodall (R-Ga.). Amy Hasenberg is now deputy comms director for the House Oversight GOP. She previously was comms director for Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas). | | TODAY IN CONGRESS | | The House is out. The Senate meets at noon to resume consideration of the nomination of Michael Newman to be a U.S. district judge for the Southern District of Ohio. | | AROUND THE HILL | | Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio), Patty Murray (D-Wash.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) hold a video news conference on "What's At Stake for Marriage Equality with President Trump's Supreme Court Nomination" beginning at 3:30 p.m. | | TRIVIA | | MONDAY'S WINNER: Erik K. Ackerson was the first person to guess that of the 22 senators from the 11 states that made up the Confederacy, Ralph Yarborough of Texas was the only former senator who voted for final passage of the 1964 Civil Rights Act. TODAY'S QUESTION: From Erik: The 116th Congress is composed of 541 individuals representing the 50 states. How many American provinces currently have non-voting delegates? The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Huddle. Send your best guess to mzanona@politico.com. GET HUDDLE emailed to your phone each morning. | | A message from Goldman Sachs 10,000 Small Businesses Voices: Small businesses are in dire need of support. As Congress continues to leave the small business community behind, their inaction comes at a tough cost. 30% of all small business owners will exhaust their cash reserves by the end of the year and 43% of Black small business owners will completely deplete their cash reserves by the end of the year. The federal government hasn't done enough. Congress and the Administration must work together, regardless of party lines, to provide relief for the American people. Small businesses can't wait. Learn more | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Follow us | | | | |
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