Tuesday, October 20, 2020

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Daily Brew

The Motley Fool

Good morning. If you skipped over this section yesterday, it's as if you left a Marvel movie before the post-credits scene. 

To get you caught up, we're giving away free Morning Brew joggers to readers who get five people to sign up for the Brew this week. Wanna call them sweatpants, instead? Fine by us—just know that they're outrageously comfortable and can be yours with just five additional referrals this week.

Get your joggers now.

P.S. This giveaway applies to the U.S. only.

MARKETS

NASDAQ

11,478.88

- 1.65%

S&P

3,427.01

- 1.63%

DJIA

28,197.53

- 1.43%

GOLD

1,904.80

- 0.08%

10-YR

0.766%

+ 2.00 bps

OIL

40.60

- 0.68%

*As of market close

  • Markets: Stocks had a rough start to the week as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin continued to negotiate a stimulus deal. The sentence above has essentially been copy+pasted in every single Morning Brew edition this month.
  • Covid-19 update: Coronavirus cases topped 40 million globally. Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb said that here in the U.S. we're in the "7th inning" of the pandemic's acute phase, and things will only get tougher with winter arriving.

ECONOMY

China's Feeling on Top of the World

Tourists shop at a duty-free shopping mall in Sanya City, south China's Hainan Province.

Xinhua News Agency/Getty Images

Yesterday, in the best turnaround since True Detective Season 3, China announced its economy grew 4.9% annually for the quarter spanning July to September. It's an achievement made all the more impressive by the fact that no other G20 economy is expected to grow this year. 

How Beijing did it 

Having been ground zero for Covid-19, China was also the first to make it out the other side. In March, as other countries installed pandemic storm shutters, the Communist Party declared its outbreak under control and began reopening businesses. In Q2, it logged 3.2% economic growth. 

While Q3's numbers still came in slightly under expectations, economists say the recovery reflects a stable economy:

  • Retail spending passed pre-pandemic levels for the first time.
  • Foreign demand for medical supplies, electronics, and household items have pushed China's share of global exports to a record high.

As some countries face resurgent caseloads, China's strict lockdown, testing, and tracing programs have tamped down subsequent outbreaks and kept the coronavirus under control. 

Zoom out: China still has a migraine of a Q1 to recover from. Even with Q3's stats, it's only expected to eke out 1.8% growth this year, according to the IMF.

But 2020's not over yet

China's National Bureau of Statistics acknowledged it's hard to be #thriving while the global economy remains in tatters. The IMF predicts the U.S. economy will shrink 4.3% this year and the eurozone's 8.3%. 

Other recovery storm clouds include future outbreaks, rising tensions with the West, and a growing debt load among businesses and households. 

  • Consumer confidence could also use a pep talk. China hasn't extended much direct aid to its citizens, even though it's lost as many as 130 million jobs this year.

Big picture: China's Communist Party meets next week to work out its five-year economic plan. Two quarters of steady recovery puts the world's second largest economy on better footing than most. 

        

ENERGY

"Be Greedy When Others Are Fearful"

—Warren Buffett and ConocoPhillips, probably. 

In the worst year for the fossil fuel industry since the Prius was invented, ConocoPhillips, the largest oil producer in Alaska, announced a deal to buy shale oil company Concho Resources for $9.7 billion yesterday. 

Despite this year's collapse in oil demand and a broader push toward renewable energy sources, ConocoPhillips couldn't stay away from the clearance rack. 

  • The deal prices Concho, which has a Hummer-sized footprint in the West Texas oil fields known as the Permian Basin, at $10,700/acre. Land in the Permian Basin was valued at $40,000/acre pre-Covid, according to Raymond James.

Besides the discounted price tag, Concho is an attractive target for ConocoPhillips because:

  1. It doesn't do much drilling on federal lands, which would insulate ConocoPhillips should Joe Biden win the presidency and ban fracking permits on government property, as he's promised. 
  2. More scale = lower costs. ConocoPhillips estimates it can lower the average cost of supply to $30/barrel, well below the current market price of $40.
        

AVIATION

In Air Travel, We're Back to 7 Figures

TSA graph

Francis Scialabba

On Sunday, TSA screened more than 1 million people at U.S. airports for the first time since March 16.

On the same day last year, the agency asked 2.6 million to please remove their shoes. But in these pandemic times, a 60% drop means the glass is 40% full. 

  • In April, TSA screenings dropped over 90% year-over-year. 
  • In recent weeks, though, airline execs have taken a cautiously optimistic tone. United CEO Scott Kirby told CNBC last Thursday that while a recovery is still a "long way off," he thinks the company has "turned the corner." 

One lucrative segment that probably won't turn the corner for years: corporate travel. With Zoom calls replacing Las Vegas offsites, Delta's revenue from business customers dropped 86% in Q3. CEO Ed Bastian predicts it will take up to two years for around 80% of those customers to return...and the remaining 20%? Maybe never, experts say.  

End on a positive note: A new Dept. of Defense study found low risk of coronavirus infection in modern airplane cabins.

        

SPONSORED BY THE MOTLEY FOOL

Don't Dilly Dally on This Double Down

The Motley Fool

What's a "Double Down?" Not a bygone fast food sandwich, it's actually an exceptionally rare designation that Motley Fool cofounder Tom Gardner issues for only the most potentially exciting stocks.

Basically, he recommended this up-and-coming tech stock and was so enamored with its potential to create huge returns that he, wait for it, recommended it again.

The Motley Fool has actually invested $500k of its own money in this stock that counts Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet as customers.

Other Motley Fool picks like Nvidia (up 3,511%) and Baidu (up 1,416%) have soared, and this one has the potential to be no different.

Want to see what all the techno-talk is about? Sign up for Motley Fool Stock Advisor.

COMMUNICATIONS

The Moon Is About to Have Better Cell Service Than You

Moon with wifi signal coming out the top of it

Francis Scialabba

NASA announced it's teaming up with Nokia's Bell Labs to install a 4G network on the moon, because no one likes getting a "Call Failed" notification when they're 239,000 miles from home.

The backstory: The goal of NASA's Artemis program is to build lunar infrastructure capable of supporting human life. In other words, by 2028 NASA wants astronauts to be able to live on the moon.

  • The agency is doling out various contracts to private companies, including Elon Musk's SpaceX, Jeff Bezos's Blue Origin, and now Nokia, as part of its "tipping point" investments focused on lunar exploration. These contracts are worth $370 million in total.

Nokia's handy work would give astronauts on the moon the ability to make voice and video calls, as well as transfer important data. 

Bottom line: If you're an astronaut who just pre-ordered the new iPhone 12, don't worry—NASA says the moon network will eventually be upgraded to 5G. 

        

MARKETS

Decoding the Brew's Markets Section

Nasdaq index

bfishadow on Flickr, NASDAQ stock market displayCC BY 2.0

Are you a Brew reader who opens up this newsletter, sees words like "DJIA" and "10-Year" in the Markets section, and scrolls right past because that's basically gibberish?

Here's the good news: You don't need an MBA, PhD, or fleece vest to understand what they are, how they work, and why they matter. We put together a brief summary of each of our six market indicators, from the S&P 500 to the price of oil, that translates those wonky terms into information you might find useful or interesting.

Learn about the markets here

WHAT ELSE IS BREWING

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell didn't commit to the central bank launching a digital currency, but talked up private sector projects in the space like Facebook's Libra.
  • President Trump labeled Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, "a disaster" in a campaign call and said Americans were tired of hearing about Covid-19. He then proceeded to attack Fauci on Twitter. 
  • AMC shares soared nearly 16.5% after New York State said movie theaters could begin to reopen Oct. 23.  
  • IBM's total revenue fell last quarter, but it still topped expectations thanks to growth in its cloud unit. 
  • Target will spend more than $70 million on additional employee bonuses ahead of the holiday shopping season.

BREW'S BETS

Sweatpants, but make them performance. The sweatpants of yesteryear—those baggy, ill-fitting, cracker crumb collectors—ain't cuttin' it anymore. Vuori's Ponto pant is a comfy, everyday sweat designed to perform. Moisture-wicking. Tapered leg. Hidden zip pocket. Get 20% off your first purchase on these buttery soft Vuori sweatpants.*

Inventing tech that changes the world. That's what GE is up to right. this. second. Their team is innovating with a focus on the global energy transition, precision health, and the safe return of flight. To learn more, sign up for GE's Investor newsletter.*

Tech Tip Tuesday: Google Voice lets you set up a secondary phone number and sync up all your mobile communications. It's great for when you lose your phone, need a work number, or want to read your voicemails instead of listening to them (it transcribes them for you). It was created in '09 but got some updates this summer that put it back on our radar.

Let's talk about money: Sometimes the most important subjects are the least spoken about—like how people spend their money. Check out Refinery29's Money Diaries to learn how individuals spend their hard-earned dollars. 

Two unnecessary but awesome deep dives: 1) The ultimate Halloween candy power rankings and 2) building a moving basketball hoop that won't let you miss.

*This is sponsored advertising content

FROM THE CREW

Whoops

Homer backing into leaves

Giphy

In What Else is Brewing yesterday, we incorrectly wrote that billionaire investor Robert Smith paid off student loans for students at Morehead College. 

We should have written Morehouse College. Morehead College = Morehead State University in Kentucky. We regret the error.

GAMES

Apple, Microsoft, Google, or Facebook

We talk about these companies as a group so often—let's see how well you know them. 

  1. The oldest
  2. The youngest   
  3. The one originally based in Albuquerque, NM
  4. The one with the most FY 2019 revenue
  5. The one cofounded by Paul Allen
  6. The one with a moonshot factory named "X"

GIVEAWAY

Sweatpants Are the New Work Pants

Joggers

Whether you plan to rock them at Sunday brunch or for your Zoom meetings, these outrageously comfy Morning Brew joggers need to be in your closet ASAP. 

And it couldn't be easier. All you need to do is refer five people to the Brew this week using your unique link. That's it. 

  • Quick note: It doesn't matter how many referrals you currently have—you need to refer five additional people this week. 
  • And remember, U.S. only.

Don't put this off. Win your joggers today.

Share to Win

Or copy & paste your referral link to others:
morningbrew.com/daily/r/?kid=8386977e

ANSWER

  1. The oldest: Microsoft (1975)
  2. The youngest: Facebook (2004)
  3. The one originally based in Albuquerque, NM: Microsoft
  4. The one with the most FY 2019 revenue: Apple ($260.2 billion)
  5. The one cofounded by Paul Allen: Microsoft
  6. The one with a moonshot factory named "X": Google (well, technically its parent company Alphabet)
              

Written by Alex Hickey, Neal Freyman, and Toby Howell

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