TODAY -- the 91st day since Covid relief talks began -- is the day we will find out whether Congress will attempt to pass a stimulus bill before Election Day, which is TWO WEEKS from today. SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI and Washington's Most Eager Man, Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN -- in Tel Aviv as of publication time -- will decide today if their differences are bridgeable. Or, as most Republicans are whispering behind MNUCHIN'S back, we will all find out how much MNUCHIN will cave to PELOSI in order to get a deal. THE PAIR SPOKE for an hour Monday afternoon, with MNUCHIN speaking from the Middle East. Both sides say they believe they have narrowed their differences -- but the two sides walked away with different impressions of how close they are to a deal. Republicans said they had thought that an OSHA portion of the bill was all but locked up, and Democrats disagreed. HERE'S A TANGIBLE NUGGET that might help you understand how the talks are going: PELOSI and MNUCHIN decided over the weekend that they had made enough top-line progress that they could allow the Senate and House appropriations committees to handle some of the specifics of the spending portion of the deal. ONE AREA THAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE EASY TO SOLVE was a pot of money for transit, global health, the Indian Health Service, CDC and community health center funding, drinking water and rural energy. PELOSI wanted $143 billion for this pot, and MNUCHIN and the administration wanted $113 billion -- not terribly far apart. THE APPROPRIATIONS STAFF -- which frequently works out issues like this with no sweat -- met for an hour Monday afternoon and found themselves immediately deadlocked. Democrats suggested Republicans could not negotiate because of divisions in their conference. Not to mention, Republicans had supported legislative offers in this neighborhood before. Republicans said Democrats are unbendable, and will settle only for the $143 billion. FURTHERMORE, both sides told us that they had no idea what exactly PELOSI and MNUCHIN had privately agreed to, which made it hard to strike a deal. SO, LISTEN: COULD THEY COME TO a deal today? Maybe. Republicans believe it would require full capitulation from MNUCHIN, which is not impossible. But both sides believe it will be tricky to get it into legislative language and to the floor before Election Day. THE LEVEL OF DISTRUST in MNUCHIN among Republicans is hard to overstate. Republicans in the White House, House and Senate think he's a sellout, and believe he'll do anything to get a deal -- even if it means rolling over on some long-held GOP orthodoxy. Republicans involved in the talks said he has already agreed to more than $1.9 trillion in spending -- including a new $60 billion rental assistance program. And they are concerned he will cave to PELOSI on a big state-and-local-funding package, as well. BURGESS EVERETT and MARIANNE LEVINE: "Senate Republicans cringe at Trump's stimulus negotiations" SENATE GOP WHIP JOHN THUNE of South Dakota: "It would be hard" to get 13 votes for any Covid relief bill in the $2 trillion neighborhood. MNUCHIN spoke this morning at 5:25 a.m. D.C. time in Tel Aviv at Ben Gurion Airport at a ceremony with Israeli and Emirati officials. THE FED FACTOR -- "As Washington scrambles for more bailout money, the Fed sits on mountain of untapped funds," by WaPo's Rachel Siegel and Jeff Stein: "In March, Congress allotted $454 billion to the Treasury Department to support the central bank's emergency lending programs, including those for struggling businesses and local governments. Of that pot, only $195 billion has been specifically committed to cover any losses the Fed might take, including through loans that companies fail to repay. Seven months into the crisis, the remaining $259 billion still has not been committed to any of the Fed's specific programs or for any other purpose, and it is unlikely that it will be anytime soon." Good Tuesday morning. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP will join "FOX & FRIENDS" at 8 a.m. GETTING THE BAND BACK TOGETHER … ALEX ISENSTADT: "Trump taps 2016 brain trust to stage another stunner in 2020": "The calls come at all hours. Donald Trump — confronting grim poll numbers and the increasingly real possibility of becoming a one-term president — has been burning up the phone lines to the people who got him to the White House. Working off a list of cell phone numbers, the president has been reaching out to 2016 campaign loyalists. How, he wants to know, can he pull this off? "Brian Seitchik, Trump's 2016 Arizona director, was on the road this month when the White House switchboard number popped up on his phone, forcing him to pull into a parking lot. The president told Seitchik he knew he'd been a part of the team for a long time and asked him about his prospects in the state, where polling has consistently shown him trailing. Seitchik reassured that president: Yes, the race is tight in Arizona, but ultimately he'd prevail. … "Corey Lewandowski and David Bossie, two key players during Trump's first run before they were frozen out of his political organization, have reemerged as key advisers. Bossie was recently dispatched to make peace between a key campaign operative and Ron DeSantis, the governor of must-win Florida. Matt Oczkowski, a 2016 alum and former employee of the controversial Cambridge Analytica data firm, has taken an expanded role overseeing voter targeting efforts." POLITICO -- "How Trump plowed through $1 billion, losing cash advantage," by AP's Brian Slodysko and Zeke Miller PAGING HATCH ACT EXPERTS! … NBC'S KELLY O'DONNELL (@KellyO): "Kayleigh McEnany is the WH @pressec and just told a rally crowd that together supporters and the president could 'beat the media.' She is a government employee, not a campaign spokesperson." KANYE WEST loaned his campaign $3 million, according to a recently filed FEC report. MORE DEBATE DRAMA -- "Debate commission to cut the mics at Trump-Biden showdown," by Matthew Choi and Alex Isenstadt: "President Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden will have their microphones muted during Thursday's presidential debate to ensure each candidate can get his points across uninterrupted. "The Commission on Presidential Debates announced the measure on Monday evening in response to the constant interruptions that marred the first presidential debate last month. … The candidates' microphones will be muted only during two-minute opening remarks at the start of each 15-minute segment of the debate. During the remainder of the debate, the microphones will be on to allow an open discussion, the commission announced. Time taken up by interruptions by an opponent will be given back to the candidate." POLITICO POST-ELECTION LEADERSHIP BATTLES BEGIN … MEL ZANONA and JOHN BRESNAHAN: "McCarthy locking up support despite fears of GOP losses": "House Republicans face the possibility of sinking further into the minority on Nov. 3. President Donald Trump is trailing in key polls. But Kevin McCarthy is confident he'll remain House GOP leader in the next Congress. "McCarthy has already won the support of Rep. Jim Jordan, his one-time rival, after helping the Ohio Republican secure top positions on high-profile committees. And House Minority Whip Steve Scalise, who was long thought to be waiting to replace McCarthy should he stumble or not seek the top position, is also expected to remain in that post, barring a disaster at the polls. "Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, currently the No. 3 House Republican, could see a leadership challenge after repeatedly criticizing Trump, while the future of National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Tom Emmer of Minnesota is also uncertain. "'I think I'm a pretty good vote counter. I would think I already have the votes,' McCarthy said in an hour-long interview in his Capitol Hill office. 'I think, having been through everything I've been through and knowing these races, I'm stronger today than at any other time I've had leadership races.'" MATT DIXON in Tallahassee: "Florida shatters opening day record for early voting": "Florida shattered its opening day record for in-person early voting Monday, with at least 350,000 people casting ballots and election officials continuing to count statewide late into the night. "The trend continues a record-setting pace in the battleground state that is viewed as a must-win for President Donald Trump. Voting by mail, which started earlier this month, racked up more than 2.5 million ballots headed into Monday, more than double the 1.2 million during the same timeframe in 2016." SCOTUS WATCH -- "Supreme Court declines to block Pennsylvania mail-in ballot extension," by Josh Gerstein and Zach Montellaro: "An evenly divided Supreme Court said Monday it is declining to block a Pennsylvania state court ruling allowing mail-in ballots in the crucial battleground state to be counted as long as they're postmarked by Election Day, even if they arrive up to three days later. The order from the high court is a victory for Democrats, as the presidential campaigns prepare for an all-out battle for the state's 20 electoral votes." DEPT. OF DRAPE MEASURING -- "Biden eyes GOP candidates for Cabinet slots," by Megan Cassella and Alice Miranda Ollstein: "Among the names being floated for possible Biden Cabinet posts are Meg Whitman, the CEO of Quibi and former CEO of eBay, and former Ohio Gov. John Kasich, both of whom spoke at August's Democratic National Convention. Massachusetts GOP Gov. Charlie Baker and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.) have also been mentioned, as has former Rep. Charlie Dent (R-Pa.), who resigned from Congress in 2018 and became a lobbyist. "When asked for comment, a spokesperson for the Biden transition said only that the team is not making any personnel decisions before the Nov. 3 election, but stressed that 'diversity of ideology and background is a core value of the transition.'" POLITICO -- MAY WE ADD ONE MORE NAME? How about Michigan Rep. FRED UPTON? UPTON has been in Congress since 1987, and has a close relationship with BIDEN from their work together on cancer research legislation. Remember this Alex Burns story from 2019? TRUMP'S TUESDAY -- The president will participate in a Sinclair town hall at 3 p.m. in the Rose Garden. He and first lady Melania Trump will leave the White House at 5:25 p.m. en route to Erie, Pa. They will arrive at the Erie International Airport at 6:50 p.m., and Trump will speak at a campaign rally. Afterward, they will return to Washington, arriving at the White House at 9:55 p.m. ON THE TRAIL … Sen. KAMALA HARRIS (D-Calif.) will participate in a virtual rally in Milwaukee to kick off the first day of in-person voting in Wisconsin. She will attend virtual fundraisers in the evening. | 
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