Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Big 2020 question: Are you better off? — Infrastructure in the spotlight — Stocks fall (again) as stimulus hopes fade (again)

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By Ben White and Aubree Eliza Weaver

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Quick Fix

Are you better off? — One of the biggest question any president seeking reelection faces is whether voters think they are better off than they were four years ago. We've chronicled President Donald Trump's declining ratings on the economy. But the latest FT-Peterson US Economic Monitor out later this morning has more rough news for Trump: "32% of voters say that they are financially better off since … Trump became president, tying a twelve-month low."

The survey of likely 2020 voters also includes other bad news for the president: "Nearly three quarters of voters said Trump should be paying more taxes … Six in 10 Americans … believe Trump is unfairly taking advantage of the U.S. tax system."

Stimulus thought bubble — Exactly as we predicted, Wall Street did another Lucy and the football dance over pre-election stimulus, rising over night on Trump/Pelosi comments this weekend and sinking once again when those hopes faded. Trump's own chief of staff, Mark Meadows, said that Senate Republicans "have been very vocal in terms of their lack of support of a number that is even close to what the president has already supported at the $1.88 trillion range."

One Hill Dem staffer wondered to MM what might happen on Wall Street if Trump wins and Republicans hold the Senate: "What does Wall Street think happens if Trump wins? The Trump reelection scenario seems totally unexplored in the analysis I've read but if Senate Republicans don't want stimulus and they win does that mean a Trump reelection causes a selloff?"

MM sidebar: Markets probably would not sell off right away in that scenario given the promise of continued low tax rates and reduced regulation. But there could be some concern that the "Big Biden Stimulus" play is off the table.

To wit, notes from a JPMorgan investor conference on Oct. 14: "Market expectations are set up for a Biden win and a front-loaded fiscal package into 2021, and there is room for disappointment if these assumptions do not come to fruition."

GOOD TUESDAY MORNING — Email me on bwhite@politico.com and follow me on Twitter @morningmoneyben. Email Aubree Eliza Weaver on aweaver@politico.com and follow her on Twitter @AubreeEWeaver.

 

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Driving the Day

GOLDMAN GIVES HALF DAY OFF OPTION ON ELECTION DAY — Per email from Goldman CEO David Solomon to employees: "To help support you and your opportunity to participate in the election, we will offer all employees who are eligible to vote and currently in the US up to a half-day of paid leave on Election Day. This paid time off can be used only on Tuesday, November 3."

Other banks are doing similar things. JPMorganChase, for instance, is part of the Time to Vote Coalition and plans to give up to four hours paid time off on Election Day.

MILKEN BURST: INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE SPOTLIGHT — MM spoke with Matt Horton, Director at the Milken Institute Center for Regional Economics and California Center, and Dan Carol, Director at the Milken Institute Center for Financial Markets. Both are heavily focused on infrastructure at the federal and state levels and recently wrote in The Hill about how to rethink our approach to addressing the $4 trillion in unmet needs. The key point: Providing pre-development funding to get projects from shovel-worthy to shovel-ready.

Dan Carol: "What we are focused on is a shift in the paradigm a little bit … to what are the immediate community needs post-Covid for infrastructure projects … What we've been pushing with our proposal is this idea of providing project development capital to lots of communities that want to do projects whether it's broadband or otherwise …

Matt Horton on where needs are greatest now: "We have gross under investment in housing that crosses over major markets for essential workers … And a real lack of access to transit and mobility as well as a lack of clean water and broadband." You can read more about their efforts here.

Also at Milken on Monday: Goldman CEO David Solomon ( watch here), on how today's crisis is forging our future "Financial institutions use an enormous amount of technology to serve their clients and serve their customers…. The pandemic has only accelerated that."

Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar (watch here ) on Covid-19: "These simple measures — washing your hands, watching your distance, wearing your face coverings when you can't watch your distance — these are your ticket, actually, to freedom …

"We believe we'll have enough vaccine by the end of December to vaccinate the most vulnerable populations in the United States, by the end of January, enough to vaccinate all of our seniors, health-care workers, and first responders" All sessions can be vewed here.

SENATE GOP FRUSTRATED BY TRUMP ON STIMULUS — Our Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine: "The coronavirus stimulus talks between Nancy Pelosi and Steven Mnuchin have been excruciating. But they'll fuel an even more painful firefight within the GOP if the speaker and Treasury secretary can somehow get a deal.

"The bulk of the Senate GOP is resistant to the spending numbers being tossed around by Pelosi and Mnuchin, meaning a majority of Republicans in the GOP-controlled Senate would likely vote against a deal in the ballpark of $2 trillion. And that's if the legislation even comes up at all."

NEW TODAY — Per release: "The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) on … is launching a comprehensive new series, Rebuilding the Global Economy, of research and dialogue laying out the economic challenges revealed and worsened by the Covid-19 pandemic"

ECON IMPACT FROM NO STIMULUS GROWS — Via Reuters: "On Sept. 1, U.S. health officials announced they would suspend evictions across the United States to help stem further spread of the novel coronavirus. That was three days too late for Latrise Bean.

"About 72 hours before the declaration by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Bean, 35, was ordered evicted from her Milwaukee apartment. She'd lived there for three years despite the sagging ceilings, smell of urine in the hallways and homeless squatters in the basement - because it was all she could afford."

BLANKFEIN ON BIDEN — Via Charlotte Alter in TIME: "There are … signs that Biden's economic message is resonating on Wall Street and in the broader business community. … 'Many in business dreaded an outcome where the Democratic Party controls both houses and they put in a very progressive platform of aggressive regulation, higher taxes, and other business unfriendly stuff,' says Lloyd Blankfein, the former chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs …

"'But at this point, the unpredictability and volatility of the Trump administration have made people's heads spin enough to make it six of one, half a dozen of the other.' Concerned investors, Blankfein says, 'are not jumping off a bridge if Biden gets elected, because they're sick of what we have at this point.'"

Markets

STOCKS FALL ON WALL STREET — AP's Ken Sweet, Damian J. Troise and Alex Veiga: "Stocks gave up some of their recent gains Monday as hopes faded on Wall Street that Washington will come through with badly needed aid for the economy before Election Day. …

"The benchmark S&P 500 index fell 1.6 percent after starting the day higher. Investors are also preparing for a busy week of corporate earnings. Procter & Gamble, Netflix and IBM are among the companies that will report how they did over the summer, when the virus lockdowns were in full swing. Stocks had been up in the early going following a report that China's economy grew at a 5 percent annual rate in the last quarter."

BULLS ARE BACK IN THE NASDAQ AND OPTIONS ARE AFLUTTER — Reuters' Saqib Iqbal Ahmed and April Joyner: "Investors are once again chasing upside in shares of tech companies after a sharp sell-off in U.S. equities last month. Despite last week's market dip, the tech-heavy Nasdaq remains around 3% away from its record high. Traders - many of them retail investors - have plowed back into call options, used to position for gains in shares."

Fly Around

KEY PARTS OF RECOVERY SHOW SIGNS OF STALLING NEAR ELECTION — Bloomberg's Reade Pickert, Yue Qiu and Alexander McIntyre: "Two weeks before the election, the U.S. economic rebound is losing steam against a backdrop of dwindling government support, rising Covid-19 cases and cooler weather.

"Bloomberg Economics created a weekly dashboard of high-frequency, alternative and market-based data to track the economy's plunge into recession and eventual recovery. Several of the dashboard's indicators, including jobless claims and restaurant bookings, either worsened or showed no improvement. Others, such as a weekly measure of retail sales, continued to slowly advance."

HOW FAILURES OF OBAMA-ERA STIMULUS COULD GUIDE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION — NYT's Neil Irwin: "The person taking the oath of office on Jan. 20 will face an economic mess. That will be true whether that's Joe Biden or Donald J. Trump, and true whether or not the off-and-on negotiations over a new round of pandemic relief yield anything.

"Given mass failures of small businesses and continuing astronomical numbers of people filing for jobless benefits, the president will face a situation uncannily similar to the crisis Mr. Biden and President Obama faced a dozen years earlier. If it is Mr. Biden who comes to power, along with Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, he will have something rare: the chance to look at the lessons of recent history and have a do-over."

 

THE PLAY-BY-PLAY GUIDE TO CAPITOL HILL: With the Senate up for grabs, members of Congress are hitting the campaign trail in the final weeks of a historic election. How are the pivotal races playing out? Will control of the Senate flip? Keep up to speed on the people and politics of Capitol Hill with our Huddle newsletter, a play-by-play guide to all things Congress. Subscribe today.

 
 
For Your Radar

TRANSITIONS — Per release from the Bank Policy Institute: "Tara Payne joined BPI as an Assistant Vice President of Communications this week … Prior to joining BPI, Tara was a Washington-based tech and telecom reporter at Bloomberg Industry Group and a financial services reporter at Morning Consult"

COHN AT THE ABA — Rob Blackwell, chief content officer for IntraFi Network "interviewed Gary Cohn for the ABA's Unconventional Convention, and the video of the interview is now available on YouTube. He touched on the need for economic stimulus" and much more.

 

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