News: POLITICO Florida Playbook: New poll show razor-tight contest in Florida — Early voting record shattered on first day — Only 67,000 voters registered after Amendment 4 passed

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

POLITICO Florida Playbook: New poll show razor-tight contest in Florida — Early voting record shattered on first day — Only 67,000 voters registered after Amendment 4 passed

Oct 20, 2020

Hello and welcome to Tuesday.

The daily rundown — Between Sunday and Monday, the number of Florida coronavirus cases increased by 1,707 (0.2 percent), to 756,727; active hospitalizations went up 46 (2.2 percent), to 2,055; deaths rose by 54 (0.3 percent), to 16,021.

Keep them coming — Another new poll shows the presidential race is effectively tied in Florida.

Tight as a drum — A poll out this morning from the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida has former Vice President Joe Biden at 48 percent and President Donald Trump at 47 percent, which is well within the 3.3 percent plus or minus margin of error.

No quick answers — Michael Binder, faculty director of the lab and an associate professor of political science, said his group made an effort to "capture hard-to-reach voters and our results suggest that it might be a long night on Nov. 3." The poll was done last week. He added that, "This is Florida, and elections are never easy here, I expect this race to come down to the wire."

Trendline — This is the second poll in the last week that has showed Biden and Trump nearly deadlocked. It's another reminder that even with the Democratic surge in mail-in ballots and a record early voting day that this contest is far from over.

Noteworthy — There are some other takeaways, however, from the poll: It showed Trump is still underwater with 47 percent approving of the job he's doing and 49 percent disapproving. The survey also showed that Biden's support among white voters in the state sits at 37 percent. (A Mason-Dixon poll released last week showed he same thing.) If Biden reaches 40 percent support among white voters then he will likely beat Trump in his adopted home state. But this poll also shows that Biden only has a 50-43 percent lead among Hispanic voters.

— WHERE'S RON? — Nothing official announced for Gov. DeSantis.

ELECTIONLAND: POLITICO is partnering with Electionland , a ProPublica project that works with newsrooms to track voting issues around the country. The Electionland project covers problems that prevent eligible voters from casting their ballots during the 2020 elections. We're part of a coalition of newsrooms around the country that are investigating issues related to voter registration, pandemic-related changes to voting, the shift to vote-by-mail, cybersecurity, voter education, misinformation, and more. Tell us here if you're having trouble voting.

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TRAIL MIX

RECORD BREAKING -- "Florida shatters opening day early voting record," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon: Florida shattered its opening day record for in-person early voting Monday, with at least 350,000 people casting ballots and election officials continuing to count statewide late into the night. The trend continues a record-setting pace in the battleground state that is viewed as a must-win for President Donald Trump. Voting by mail, which started earlier this month, racked up more than 2.5 million ballots headed into Monday, more than double the 1.2 million during the same timeframe in 2016.

— "Democrats brace for Republican 'army' in Florida voting wars," by POLITICO's Matt Dixon

— "Floridians line up on first day of voting as Orange elections website goes down," by Orlando Sentinel's Caroline Glenn and Steven Lemongello

A couple stands in line as it rains before their precinct open on Monday, Oct. 19, the first day of in-person voting in Miami, Fla.

A couple stands in line as rain falls on voters waiting for the precinct to open, Monday, Oct. 19, 2020 in Miami. Florida begins in-person early voting in much of the state Monday. With its 29 electoral votes, Florida is crucial to both candidates in order to win the White House. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)

DRIVE-IN RALLY — "Kamala Harris in Orlando urges Floridians to 'put our country back on the right track,'" by Orlando Sentinel's Steven Lemongello: "U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris encouraged Floridians to vote early to 'put our country back on the right track' during a campaign visit to Orlando on Monday. The Democratic candidate for vice president held an outdoor, drive-in rally at the Central Florida Fairgrounds, where invited guests in about 50 cars honked their horns in approval as she and others spoke on the first day of early voting in the state."

— "Rain doesn't douse Democratic VP nominee Kamala Harris' Jacksonville stopover," by Florida Times-Union's Steve Patterson

PRESSURE — "Orlando CEO tells employees layoffs could come if Trump loses," by Orlando Sentinel's Ryan Gillespie: "The owner of an Orlando manufacturing firm — and a GOP megadonor― warned his employees that if President Donald Trump loses his reelection bid next month, layoffs could be on the way. The letter was sent to workers by George Daniels, who owns Daniels Manufacturing Company, a maker of parts and tools for electrical work on aircraft. Daniels is also one of the region's largest boosters of Republican candidates and causes, writing checks worth more than $800,000 in the past two years to GOP interests over a two-year period, including two separate $100,000 contributions to Trump-aligned groups, and another $100,000 to the conservative Club for Growth."

'GUARDIANS' — "Voting group launches seven-figure campaign to build trust in Democracy," by POLITICO's Zach Montellaro: VoteSafe, a bipartisan group that encourages voter participation, is rolling out a $1.7 million campaign featuring local election officials reassuring Americans that the election process is safe and secure. The "guardians of democracy" campaign is starting in four battleground states: Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to details of the program shared with POLITICO. The ads star local election officials, who highlight security features in their systems for both in-person and mail voting. "Safe and secure elections are fundamental to our country," Jennifer Edwards, supervisor of elections for Collier County, Fla., says in the ad airing in the state. "No matter how you vote, in-person, early or by mail, we have security measures to make sure your vote is counted."

GEARING UP — "Armies of Florida lawyers deployed for presidential election, in case of 2000 sequel," by Miami Herald's Jay Weaver: "In Miami-Dade County, the election department released a list of registered poll watchers associated with the two presidential campaigns and the Democratic and Republican parties. There are 1,421 of them in a county with 859 precincts. And that's just one county. Ever since the bitter 36-day legal war over recounts of presidential ballots in Florida's 2000 election, which wound up decided by just 537 votes, both the political parties and voters have been dreading a sequel but also planning for one. Two years ago, it almost happened again, though the recount disputes that played out in South Florida were over state races for governor, the U.S. Senate and agriculture commissioner — not to become the leader of the free world. This year, tightening polls suggest they might get it."

ADD IT UP — "Final tally: Group says 67,000 felons registered in Florida after Amendment 4," by POLITICO's Gary Fineout: A group that pushed to restore voting rights to Florida felons said Monday that slightly more than 67,000 people registered to vote after passage of its citizen initiative. That's a far cry from the roughly 1.4 million people that organizers hoped to add to the voting rolls. Voters overwhelmingly approved Amendment 4, which was designed to restore voting rights to most felons, in 2018, but the state's Republican-controlled Legislature passed a law a year later placing additional restrictions on felons seeking to register to vote. Desmond Meade, the executive director of the Florida Rights Restoration Coalition, still hailed the overall numbers and called it a "historical" moment.

THAT ESCALATED QUICKLY — "Four Broward voters refused to wear masks but were allowed to vote anyway," by Sun Sentinel's Brooke Baitinger and Eileen Kelley: "Early voting at a Fort Lauderdale location hit a snag Monday when four people refused to wear masks in line. They were in line to vote early at the Coral Ridge Mall, where anti-mask demonstrators staged recent protests in the Target store inside the mall. Broward County Supervisor of Elections Pete Antonacci signed paperwork Thursday that grants the Broward Sheriff's Office the authority to remove any 'disruptive and unruly' people from polling sites. Poll worker Jeff Carroll told the group of one man and three women that masks were required at the polling place, according to a police report. Carroll called the police to handle the situation and told an officer he wanted the foursome to leave. The group told police they had medical reasons for not wearing masks, the report says."

MAGIC 8-BALL SAYS ASK AGAIN LATER — "Trump voted by mail in Florida's primary. Will he do it again in November?" by Miami Herald's Samantha J. Gross: "If President Donald Trump plans to vote by mail in the general election as he did in Florida's August primary, he'll have to act fast. Neither the president nor First Lady Melania Trump have requested a mail ballot, the Palm Beach County elections website shows, and they only have until Saturday to request one. Trump spent months criticizing the legitimacy of mail voting — even as states expanded vote by mail during the COVID-19 pandemic — before reversing course earlier this summer when he tweeted an endorsement of the process, calling Florida's vote by mail system 'tried and true.'"

2020 BY THE NUMBERS — So far, 2,509,293 vote-by-mail ballots have been cast for the November election, according to the latest information on the state Division of Elections website. Of those, 1,227,929 have come from Democrats and 757,696 have come from registered Republicans. Overall, there are nearly 3.26 million mail ballots requested but not yet returned. Of those, more than 1.37 million are held by Democrats and more than 1.04 million are with Republicans.

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP — Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, seen as a likely 2022 Democratic candidate for governor, said she was sending more than $100,000 to down-ballot races, including money from her political committee — Florida Consumers First — to more than 50 candidates. She is also donating money to the Florida Democratic Party and to the groups helping Democratic legislative campaigns. "Florida Democrats have the opportunity to flip several legislative and municipal seats throughout the state, but the candidates can't do it without support," Fried said in a statement …. A Spanish-language spot from Republican Maria Elvira Salazar knocks Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala for trading stocks after learning about the coronavirus pandemic …. Hispanic Leadership Fund announced a digital audio campaign promoting temporary protection status for refugees and migrants. It questions why President Donald Trump has not extended TPS to those who fled socialist countries. The campaign will run exclusively in the Sunshine State, with an emphasis on South Florida.

FIRST IN PLAYBOOK — Four progressive groups — PoderLatinx, Equal Ground Education Fund, Black Voters Matter Florida, and the Hispanic Federation Florida — have formed a new partnership, the "Coalition for Black and Brown Ballot Access ." The coalition will spend more than six figures over the last 14 days of the election to increase voter confidence and turnout in historically low turnout precincts. In addition to targeted digital and mobile advertising, the program will target nearly 200,000 voters, and includes a sophisticated effort to cure rejected ballots in these communities. "Florida is not just a state that is won at the margins, but it is also a state that regularly sees attempts at voter suppression in Black and brown communities. Especially during this pandemic, it is imperative that we work to ensure that folks are confident about their ability to cast their vote," said Phillip Jerez, campaign manager for the Coalition for Black and Brown Ballot Access.

— "U.S. postal carrier charged with stealing Miami-Dade mail-in ballot, debit cards," by Miami Herald's Jay Weaver

— "Doug Emhoff urges early voting to Lake Worth Beach-area crowd: 'If we win Florida, it's game over," by Palm Beach Post's Wendy Rhodes

— "Tampa Bay early voters got a taste of the Stanley Cup," by Tampa Bay Times Bailey LeFever

— "Gaetz, Nunez to headline Tuesday MAGA meet-up for Trump," by Northwest Florida Daily News' Jim Thompson

— "Matt Gaetz rides Team Trump bus into Tallahassee; Jack Porter rallies Democrats," by Tallahassee Democrat's James Call

— "Vice President Mike Pence scheduled to visit Tallahassee on Saturday," by Tallahassee Democrat

GLOBAL PULSE, GLOBAL PURPOSE: At a high-stakes moment when global health has become a household concern, it is pivotal to keep up with the politics and policy driving change. Global Pulse connects leaders, policymakers and advocates to the people and politics driving global health. Join the conversation and subscribe today for this new weekly newsletter.

CORONAVIRUS UPDATES

WATCH THIS SPACE — "Coronavirus: Florida reports 1,707 new cases, biggest Monday COVID-19 spurt in more than a month," by Palm Beach Post's Chris Persaud: "Coronavirus infections in Florida continued to grow at a faster pace Monday as the state's total increased to 756,727 cases, marking an increase of more than 20,000 in the past week. Florida's health department routinely has reported its smallest one-day increases of the week on Mondays. The 1,707 new cases reported statewide marked the biggest one-day increase for a Monday since Sept. 14. That statistic reflects a worrying trend of COVID-19 infections once again rising after the rate slowed during late August and September."

WAITING FOR THE 'RIGHT EXPERIENCE' — "Glamorous Miami club caught in power struggle over the virus," by Associated Press' Kelli Kennedy: "At LIV, one of the most glamorous, star-studded nightclubs in one of the world's biggest party destinations, there's a velvet-roped VIP area, and then there's a secret VIP area. The parties at the club are so legendary they have inspired lyrics from Drake, Kanye West and Rick Ross. High rollers spend up to $20,000 just for a table. Today, LIV sits quiet and empty — a casualty not just of the coronavirus outbreak but of a power struggle between state and local government over how to contain the scourge."

— "Court win revives Miami-Dade's COVID-19 curfew in the legal tussle with night clubs," by Miami Herald's David J. Neal

— "Lee schools to see 10,115 more students in face-to-face classrooms starting Nov. 2," by Fort Myers News-Press Pamela McCabe

— "Merritt Island football quarantined by COVID-19," by Florida Today's Brian McCallum

TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP

BEHIND THE GATES — "'Dripping with money': A look behind the gated affluence of Trump's Palm Beach," by Los Angeles Times' Hailey Branson-Potts: "Laurel Baker steered her dark-blue sport utility vehicle through this tony resort town, studded on all sides with tall hedges and metal gates offering stingy glimpses of spectacular mansions. Private entrances to private beaches read: NO TRESPASSING and KEEP OUT. Sidewalks are rare in this affluent enclave President Trump calls home, befitting neighborhoods where people eye pedestrians with suspicion. Baker, chief executive of the Palm Beach Chamber of Commerce, moved here 44 years ago and says Palm Beach has changed. It's always been wealthy, she says. But people now are more cloistered in their sprawling estates, associating only with those who think like them, politically and otherwise. 'When we first moved here, we drove around and we'd say, 'Oh, my God, look at that hedge — it's 13 feet tall!' Well, now there are hedges 20 feet tall,' Baker said as a face shield swung from her rearview mirror. 'It's changed. It's not as friendly.'"

— "EPA effort announced to reduce trash in waterways and oceans," by Palm Beach Post's Kimberly Miller

... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...

TURNED BACK — "Florida Supreme Court rejects 'bed tax' appeal," by News Service of Florida's Jim Saunders: "In a victory for Airbnb and similar vacation-rental platforms, the Florida Supreme Court on Monday declined to take up a dispute about whether the companies are required to collect and send in tourist-development taxes. Justices turned down an appeal by Palm Beach County Tax Collector Anne Gannon, who went to the Supreme Court after a divided panel of the 4th District Court of Appeal ruled in favor of Airbnb, Tripadvisor and HomeAway."

PENINSULA AND BEYOND

COMING TO LIGHT? — "Ghislaine Maxwell loses fight to keep her Jeffrey Epstein testimony sealed," by McClatchy's Kevin G. Hall and Ben Weider: "A federal appeals court dealt Ghislaine Maxwell, the alleged madam to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein, twin blows late Monday by declining to consolidate her appeals in numerous overlapping cases and striking down her effort to thwart release of a controversial deposition she gave in a now-settled civil lawsuit. The three-judge Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit held more than two hours of oral arguments last week, and issued a succinct Monday afternoon order holding that a lower court judge did not err in ordering the release of a 418-page deposition from April 2016 that could shed new light on the Epstein empire."

'NOT HELPFUL' — "Incoming Sarasota School Board member getting backlash for calling Trump supporters 'Nazis,'" by Sarasota Herald-Tribune's Ryan McKinnon: "Newly elected Sarasota County School Board member Tom Edwards has not yet been sworn into office and he already is hearing calls for his resignation. The Republican Party of Sarasota County issued a press release over the weekend publicizing Facebook comments that Edwards made in 2017 in which he said that he views supporters of President Donald Trump as Nazis. 'So to be VERY clear, I view Trump, his regime, his supporters, and his voters as Nazis,' he wrote on Facebook on May 4, 2017."

— "Man wrongly arrested in day spa probe files $5 million lawsuit against Martin County Sheriff's Office," by Treasure Coast Newspapers Melissa E. Holsman

ODDS, ENDS, AND FLORIDA MEN

— "Florida agency: Flying squirrels illegally shipped to Asia," by Associated Press' Brendan Farrington: "Flying squirrels were being trapped in Florida, driven to Chicago and shipped to South Korea, Florida wildlife officials said Monday while announcing charges against seven people they say ran an illegal wildlife trafficking operation. Poachers set as many as 10,000 squirrel traps in central Florida and captured as many as 3,600 flying squirrels over a three-year period.."

BIRTHDAYS: Russell W. Galbut, attorney and real estate developer … State Rep. Anthony Sabatini … Tom Flanigan, program director for news at WFSU Public Media

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