Monday, January 6, 2025

Will Trump save Nippon’s bid?

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
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By Ari Hawkins

Donald Trump wears a hard hat given to him by steelworkers and stands with United Steel Workers local 1557 Vice President Richard Tikey.

Some analysts and former officials are confident Donald Trump will reverse course and allow the sale of U.S. Steel to a Japanese buyer. | Win McNamee/Getty Images

QUICK FIX

— Proponents are holding out hope that President-elect Donald Trump will allow the sale of U.S. Steel to Japan’s Nippon Steel when he takes office.

— The House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party is backing the Commerce Department’s decision to weigh restrictions on drone technology.

— Democrats have selected five new members to serve on the Senate Finance Committee. And Trump tapped new senior Treasury Department staff.

It’s Monday, Jan. 6. Welcome to Morning Trade! Got tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a New Year-themed coffee? Hit us up at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. Follow us on X: @_AriHawkins, @GavinBade and @tradereporter.

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Driving the day

HOW TRUMP COULD MOVE ON NIPPON: Supporters of the sale of U.S. Steel to Japan’s Nippon Steel are still hopeful that Donald Trump could revive the nearly $15 billion dollar acquisition, which President Joe Biden blocked on national security grounds last Friday.


Trump on Monday reiterated his opposition to the deal, at least for now, in a post on his social media platform Truth Social. “Why would they want to sell U.S. Steel now when Tariffs will make it a much more profitable and valuable company? Wouldn’t it be nice to have U.S. Steel, once the greatest company in the World, lead the charge toward greatness again? It can all happen very quickly!”

But several analysts and former Trump officials remain optimistic that the president-elect’s promise to widen foreign direct investment into the United States and his somewhat warm history with Japan from his first term might outweigh the “America First” stance that animated his past comments — especially once the proposed acquisition is no longer in Biden’s hands, and Trump can renegotiate the deal on his own terms.

Steve Moore, who served as a senior economic adviser to Trump in the first administration, told Morning Trade that the president-elect “is renowned for being a deal maker” and that members of Trump’s inner-circle strongly support the deal on economic grounds.

“A negotiated settlement could very easily be in the cards,” Moore said. "When [Trump] becomes president, he can negotiate a deal that would be 'better' for American workers, and with more safeguards to the livelihoods of these workers."

“This is the ‘art of the deal president’ and Nippon Steel has clearly been showing that they're willing to deal,” said Paul Sracic, a professor at Youngstown State University, and an adjunct scholar at the conservative Hudson Institute. “You also have the fact that Donald Trump seems to like Japan. He had a close relationship with [former Japanese Prime Minister] Shinzo Abe.”

Backing up: Biden’s decision Friday to kill the purchase of Pittsburgh-based U.S. Steel by a Japan-based manufacturer won immediate praise from his labor allies — and condemnation from both companies and several Republicans.

Nippon and U.S. Steel issued a joint statement, saying Biden’s decision was the result of a process “deeply corrupted by politics.” They threatened legal action to revive the deal.

The move also triggered backlash from conservatives in Congress, granting Trump some fresh political cover if he ultimately decides to backtrack on his stance against the deal.

“Blocking the sale of a struggling company to a stronger company simply steals value from what’s left of U.S. Steel and hurts its remaining workers by blocking the billion dollar infusion of cash Nippon Steel promises,” Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) wrote on X on Friday.

Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Pa.) went even further, calling Biden’s “politically motivated decision … a significant blow to Pennsylvania and the American steel industry.”

“This shortsighted move risks thousands of current good-paying union jobs, halts critical investments in modernizing steel plants, and undermines a plan to create nearly 6,000 new jobs over the next several years,” Meuser said.

REGULATORY REVIEW

HAWKS TOUT DRONE PROBE: Reps. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.) and Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), of the House Select Committee on China, praised the Commerce Department’s move to weigh curbs on imports of Chinese and Russian drones.

Backing up: Commerce announced Thursday that it’s considering a new rule to secure the U.S. drone technology supply chain and crack down on the ability of foreign adversaries to access sensitive U.S. data, your host reports.

Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security requested comments on a potential rule through an advanced notice of proposed rulemaking. The deadline for comments is March 4, which would leave it to the incoming Trump administration to proceed with any measure.

“Drones made in the People’s Republic of China, including those made by DJI, pose acute risks to our national security and the privacy of all Americans. Recent news reports have highlighted the increasing use of drones near sensitive military installations, raising very real concerns about espionage and national security,” the lawmakers wrote in a statement Friday.

They noted that, back in June, the committee had requested Commerce use its authorities over information and communications technology and services to restrict Chinese drones.

“Commerce did exactly that, and our nation’s security is better off for it,” they wrote.

CHINA CLAPS BACK: China, for its part, recently announced dozens of restrictions on major U.S. companies on Thursday, saying those companies would be added to an export control list to safeguard national security and interests.

The targeted firms include Raytheon, Boeing and Lockheed Martin, and the action is the latest in the countries’ tit-for-tat over access to the world’s most advanced technologies.

China separately sanctioned 10 U.S. defense firms last week over military sales to Taiwan and has proposed further restrictions on technology used to make battery components and process critical minerals, according to a document issued Thursday.

On the Move

DEMS TAP NEW SENATE FINANCE MEMBERS: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Thursday that the Finance Committee would be welcoming five new members in the 119th Congress, notably including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

Key context: Sanders raised some eyebrows in November when he announced that he would be joining the tax-writing committee before Schumer had officially made any announcement.

The other new members are Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) and Peter Welch(D-Vt.). Altogether, there will be 13 senators on the committee who caucus with Democrats. Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) announced the Finance Committee assignments for the GOP in December.

Benjamin Guggenheim has more here.

TRUMP TAPS SENIOR ECONOMIC STAFF: Trump on Thursday announced a wave of staff picks to fill out senior roles at the Treasury Department, including a longtime Republican tax lobbyist and several veterans of his first administration.

Ken Kies, the longtime lobbyist, will be assistant Treasury secretary for tax policy, ahead of a major battle looming this year over how to extend the 2017 Republican tax law. (The role requires Senate confirmation.)

And Alexandra Preate, a public relations executive and former spokesperson for Trump adviser Steve Bannon, will be senior counselor at Treasury.

TRADE OVERNIGHT

— Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.), in an opinion letter for the Wall Street Journal, took the Biden administration to task over claims that his Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is renegotiating the USMCA “behind closed doors.”

— Trump's inside-the-box pick to run tax at Treasury, POLITICO Pro reports.

— Speaker Mike Johnson vows to end Biden EV policies, per POLITICO Pro.

— Moscow vows retaliation for Ukraine strikes with U.S.-made missiles, per POLITICO Europe.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

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