Monday, January 6, 2025

♟ What the "Rule of 5" Predicts for This Year's Market

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"Looking back over the past 100 years, market years ending in 5 have been consistently positive."

Bryan Bottarelli, Head Trade Tactician, Monument Traders Alliance

Bryan Bottarelli

First and foremost...

Happy New Year Trade of the Day readers!

As we look back at our 2024 War Room trading performance, all I can say is... "What a Freakin' Year!"

If you're not yet an active War Room member, then here's a quick summary...

All told, we delivered +296 winning War Room trades over the course of the 2024 year. That's over a winning trade per-trading day - which was one of our primary trading promises that we've made to you since we created the War Room in 2019.

In fact, Karim and I have achieved this goal now for 5 straight years - delivering on this promise since the day we went live.

Our overall 2024 win-rate was +73.6% - while the average gain per-trade was +5.29% every 31.2 days. When you average around 5.3% per-month, that comes to an annualized return over +60%.

In other words, we 3x'd the return of the S&P 500, which is a feat every hedge fund on Wall Street dreams of delivering.

As we begin 2025, I truly hope that your portfolio looks healthier than ever - because I have no doubt that whatever happens to the markets in 2025, Karim and I will continue to deliver winning results to you - consistently - day after day, week after week, month after month, and year after year.

With that... let's look ahead to what we have cooking for 2025!

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2025 Forecast and Predictions LIVE: Tuesday, January 14th at 2:00 PM EST

As you know, Karim and I typically host a MTA Live session early in the calendar year - where we forecast our top predictions for the new trading year - and offer picks and recommendations on which specific companies we feel will benefit the most from our prognostications.

This is a very popular event, which is free to all MTA members (like you), and this year will be no different. In fact, we may get Nate to join us with predictions of his own as well!

But in the meantime, I wanted to start posting my early research on which companies and sectors that I believe will be stand-outs in 2025 - so you can start getting these names on your radar now.

Let's start with the overall framework of the 2025 trading year...

"The Rule of 5": An Important Market Distinction

Years ending with "5": Looking back over the past 100 years, years ending in 5 have been consistently positive. The exception was 2015, when the equity market returned negative 1% - not too bad. Here are the historical results:

  • S&P Return 1935: +43%
  • S&P Return 1945: +30%
  • S&P Return 1955: +26%
  • S&P Return 1965: +9%
  • S&P Return 1975: +31%
  • S&P Return 1985: +26%
  • S&P Return 1995: +34%
  • S&P Return 2005: +3%
  • S&P Return 2015: -0.73%
  • S&P Return 2025: ???

*Source: https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns

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As we begin the 2025 trading year, let's prepare for another upside bias - but at the same time - also be ready for a major market correction - which I believe is long overdue.

More on that in next week's 2025 Forecast and Predictions LIVE. So, mark your calendars now: Tuesday, January 14th at 2:00 PM EST at MTA-LIVE.com. See you there!


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