It’s been a good four years for the solar industry — thanks in large part to the Biden administration. In fact, solar power has become so popular and cheap, analysts and industry officials say its rise can likely survive President-elect Donald Trump’s pledge to dismantle clean power subsidies and related policies. “Solar didn’t disappear eight years ago,” said Edurne Zoco with S&P Global Commodity Insights. “We’re still bullish about the industry’s outlook.” But skyrocketing electricity use in the coming years could also boost fossil fuel consumption, undermining international climate goals and handing Trump a political victory, writes Benjamin Storrow. Still, Zoco’s team forecasts that the U.S. will install 45,000 megawatts of solar in 2025, up from the estimated 32,000 in 2024 — more than the total amount of new energy added to the grid in 2023. The Energy Information Administration forecasts that solar generation will surpass wind power by the end of this year. There will be hurdles to overcome. Trump has pledged to impose a 10 percent tariff on goods from China, a crucial source of solar parts for U.S. developers that still import most equipment. That’s on top of hefty tariffs that President Joe Biden has already imposed. That is likely to jack up the price of new solar projects, slowing installations until domestic supply ramps up. Still, the domestic supply chain is growing rapidly thanks to federal support. Many of the new solar component plants are in states that voted for Trump in 2024, and manufacturers say the administration just needs to stay the course to foster the industry. Project costs will also depend on whether the Trump administration follows through on promises to claw back critical subsidies and tax breaks in Biden’s signature 2022 climate law. Solar developers will also have to deal with the long-standing permitting and interconnection headaches that have made it more difficult to build projects. But breaking down those barriers could rely on policy action on the local, state and grid operator level, regardless of how the White House acts. Perhaps the biggest boost to the industry is the simple fact that the country needs more power — and solar is one of the cheapest ways to get it. It’s not for nothing that the Solar Energy Industries Association published a policy road map in December that positions solar as part of the “path to American energy dominance.” “American innovation must have the tools it needs to compete on a global scale to meet energy demand,” the trade group wrote, “and solar is the key to unlocking their potential.”
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