FOOD PRICES FACTOR IN PA: There are few places in America that have seen food prices spike as dramatically over the last four years as Philadelphia and its suburbs have. The fallout could decide Democrats’ fate in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, more than 30 voters, elected officials and political operatives told Marcia. While food inflation has come down over the past year, prices remain 20 percent higher than they were during the 2020 presidential election, a stubborn reality that has clouded voters’ perceptions of the economy. Nowhere is the issue more salient, or potentially, more consequential, than in the Keystone state. According to analyses from the federal government, retail food prices in the Philly metro region surged by nearly 14 percent on average between 2021 and 2022, lower than only Detroit and Dallas. In 2023, food prices in the Philadelphia area continued to rise by one of the highest rates in the country. And a Consumer Affairs analysis found Pennsylvania as a whole saw the highest grocery inflation in 2023. Economists aren’t certain what’s behind those trends, but they suggest it’s likely related to labor costs, competition in the grocery sector and supply chain issues, among other factors. Vice President Kamala Harris is spending her last day before Tuesday’s election campaigning in Pennsylvania. As she noted during a stop in North Philadelphia last month: “Truly the path to victory runs through Philly and it runs through Pennsylvania.” Voter turnout in the city, a Democratic stronghold, is crucial to Harris’ chances of winning the state and Democratic incumbent Bob Casey’s hope of hanging onto his Senate seat. It’s also a factor in Democrats’ attempts to beat back a GOP challenge in a House district in Allentown, an hour north of Philadelphia. While the cost of food is not the only issue shaping voter perceptions in those races, it has given Republicans a potent talking point in the closing weeks of the election. “I blame the president,” for rising food prices, said Rich, a registered independent voter loading his groceries in a Philadelphia ShopRite parking lot, who declined to give his last name. “I used to be a Barack Obama voter. I am completely opposite now. They've changed me.” Mark Harris, a Pittsburgh-based Republican strategist who has done work for Senate candidate Dave McCormick’s campaign, said in an interview that rising food costs have come up “very frequently” in his research in the state. “It’s a pain point that people have to deal with every day. It’s like gasoline in that sense,” Harris said. Read Marcia’s full dispatch from Philly here. AND IN IOWA: A poll released over the weekend by famed Iowa pollster Ann Selzer showed Harris leading Donald Trump, 47 percent to 44 percent, within the margin of error. Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in Midwestern states with similar demographic profiles. (Think: Wisconsin.) Trump slammed the poll Sunday, both in his rally and on Truth Social , where he wrote that “no President has done more for FARMERS, and the great state of Iowa, than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close!” The Trump campaign’s chief pollster, Tony Fabrizio, also dismissed the survey — which is considered the gold standard — as an “outlier.” Zoom in on Congressional race: For Iowa’s 3rd district, the Selzer poll showed that a Democratic candidate generally has a 7-point advantage over a Republican, which is in the margin of error. That’s the district where House Ag Republican Rep. Zach Nunn is facing off with former USDA official Lannon Baccam. This congressional poll — which surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between Oct. 28 and 31 — marks a flip from the Des Moines Register’s September poll , which showed a Republican candidate was preferred by eight points in the district. Both Nunn and Baccam have touted their agriculture policy records on the campaign trail and in advertising. Nunn’s campaign is arguing that his farm experience — and endorsements from the Iowa Corn Growers and Iowa Farm Bureau — prove his agriculture bona fides. But his Democratic challenger has countered that Nunn “let the Farm Bill expire twice, making it difficult for farmers to plan and stay competitive with Big Ag.” OTHER RACES TO WATCH: Several House Ag Committee members are facing tough re-election battles on Tuesday, with results likely to have major consequences for the currently stalled ag policy and farm bill negotiations. We’re watching the competitive races (identified by the Cook Political Report) of Republican Reps. Don Bacon (Neb.), Marc Molinaro (N.Y.), John Duarte (Calif.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Ore.), Derrick Van Orden (Wis.) and, as we mentioned earlier, Nunn. Vulnerable Democrats include freshman Reps. Yadira Caraveo (Colo.), Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (Wash.), Don Davis (N.C.), Gabe Vasquez (N.M.), Angie Craig (Minn.) and Jahana Hayes (Conn.). All of those members are freshmen — with the exception of Bacon, who’s served on the House Ag Committee since he first came to Congress in 2017, and Hayes, who’s been on the committee since she came to Washington in 2019.
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