| | | | |  | | By Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels | | Presented by |  | | | With help from Eli Okun, Garrett Ross and Bethany Irvine
| | | |  | DRIVING THE DAY | | THE LOOKAHEAD— “Is There a Future for MAGA After Trump?” by David Siders in Tempe, Arizona, for POLITICO Magazine: “Any number of Republicans have picked up [DONALD] TRUMP’s shifting policy positions, but no one here was talking about getting on the ‘[KARI] LAKE Train.’ And if MAGA does need a charismatic leader, the question increasingly weighing on the rank-and-file in Arizona and elsewhere is who that might be.” VIBE CHECK — “Dancing? Bible Verses? Booze? A Tense D.C. Tries to Calm Its Nerves,” by NYT’s Glenn Thrush and Aishvarya Kavi: “One veteran Democratic congressional staff aide at the center of the nonstop combat with the Trump White House from 2017 to 2021 called it quits a few weeks back, saying the possibility of Trump redux was too ‘terrifying’ even though she believes [KAMALA] HARRIS will prevail.”
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The story of how the 2024 election was won — or more accurately, how it was lost — is already being written. | Brynn Anderson/AP | FAULT LINES — Polls start closing in about 36 hours, and it could be days more before we know who will assume the presidency on Jan. 20. But we know this much: The story of how the 2024 election was won — or more accurately, how it was lost — is already being written. Against a backdrop of deadlocked polling, both the Harris and Trump campaigns are projecting confidence right now. But expect that to give way to a vicious round of finger-pointing once the results are in — some of which we’ve already starting to hear from campaign hands, lawmakers and other political pros. The recriminations battle is ugly stuff, but it can be almost as important as the election itself: It shapes how we think about what happened, why it happened and what could be done differently in the future. So this morning, here’s some key threads in the blame game that’s certain to erupt very soon for one unlucky candidate. IF TRUMP LOSES, it’ll be because … — Trump couldn’t help being Trump. The Trump 2024 operation, unlike his previous campaigns, has generally been lauded for its professionalism and strategic focus: Keep the message focused on the economy and immigration, tie Harris to JOE BIDEN and ask voters: Under whose leadership were you better off? But time and time again — and especially over the past week — Trump has created a frenzy of distractions. Just over the past weekend, he spoke about aiming guns at LIZ CHENEY, suggested he wouldn’t be upset if a would-be assassin had “to shoot through the fake news," said he shouldn’t have left the White House in 2021 and endorsed handing the public-health infrastructure to vaccine skeptic and fluoride truther ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR. — He picked the wrong running mate. Trump chose JD VANCE in July for what seemed like a much different race: Coming off a failed assassination attempt, he looked near-unbeatable against a feeble and unpopular Biden. But it’s hard not to wonder now whether a GLENN YOUNGKIN or NIKKI HALEY would have been better suited to what the race became than a MAGA hard-liner. Sure, Vance’s edginess might have thrilled the faithful, but it also reinforced some of Trump’s biggest negatives. It was Vance, for instance, who leaned into the Haitian migrant influx into Springfield, Ohio, prompting Trump’s viral they’re-eating-the-dogs moment on the debate stage. And that’s not to mention his “childless cat ladies” jab, what could end up the best-known line of the entire campaign decades from now. Which brings us to… — He repelled women — again and again. Yes, the Dobbs decision meant it was always going to be difficult to make inroads with female voters. But Trump repeatedly poured gasoline on the fire — from repeatedly calling Harris “dumb” to retweeting unsubstantiated allegations suggesting she performed sexual favors to advance her career. At a Saturday rally in Greensboro, North Carolina, while questioning her college job at McDonald’s for the umpteenth time, an attendee shouted, “She worked on the corner!” Said Trump in response, “Just remember, other people said it … not me.” Meanwhile, Trump blanked a series of hypermasculine podcasts while eschewing opportunities to reach out to the Republican and independent women that Harris has been heavily courting — by campaigning with Haley, for instance. — He let the inmates run the asylum. With Trump’s legal bills weighing down his operation, he did something novel that some Republicans already seem to be regretting: He farmed out a big chunk of the GOP ground-game operation to Turning Point USA’s CHARLIE KIRK and political novice ELON MUSK. There are reports that both operations are falling short of their goals. Meanwhile, the Trump campaign itself has hardly been an isle of calm. As Tim Alberta reported in his weekend deep dive for the Atlantic, Trump let chaos agents like COREY LEWANDOWSKI and LAURA LOOMER back into his orbit while letting junior staffers make big mistakes — like letting a roast comedian on stage at Madison Square Garden to call Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.” IF HARRIS LOSES, it’ll be because … — She took the reins too late. Already, most Democratic officials we’ve spoken to agree: If anyone should get the blame for a Trump win, it’s Biden. The president’s insistence on running again at age 81 — and taking weeks still to bow out following his abysmal debate performance — cost Harris precious time, they say. Once Biden did pass the baton, Harris struggled to find ways to distance herself from Biden or explain how she would lead differently — culminating in her viral moment on “The View” last month where she said “not a thing comes to mind” when asked how she might have governed differently. At some point, Democrats say, respect for Biden should have given way to a winning instinct. — She picked the wrong running mate. Outside the Democratic bubble, no decision is prone for more Wednesday-morning quarterbacking than Harris’ choice of TIM WALZ. While the Minnesota governor’s liberal record and folksy style endeared him to the party base, plenty of Democrats are already wondering how things might have been different with Pennsylvania Gov. JOSH SHAPIRO on the ticket. That’s not just because the Keystone State is a must-win — though, let’s be clear, a Pennsylvania loss will throw the second-guessing into warp speed — but it would have sent a strong early signal to swing voters that she was willing to stand up to her party’s left flank, some of whom had questioned Shapiro’s outspoken support for Israel. Which brings us to … — She didn’t pivot hard enough to the center. Ever since accepting the Democratic nomination in Chicago, Harris has made pains to say she will govern from the center, assuring Republicans and independents of a “seat at the table” in a Harris administration. But, as our own Jonathan Martin has detailed, she could have done more to assure wary Republicans she’s not the San Francisco radical Trump and his allies have portrayed her as. That could have included renouncing — or at least better explaining — the host of progressive policy positions she supported during her first run for president in 2019. But her pivot, such as it has been, centered around the feeble assurance that “my values have not changed.” And, as Axios’ Alex Thompson reported this weekend, she’s simply gone silent on many of her past stances. — She was too fond of the ‘F’ word. Some Democrats whisper that Harris lost momentum in late October when she embraced the “fascist” label for Trump, echoing JOHN KELLY’s warnings about his former boss. Voters who can be persuaded out of fear for American democracy — rather than their own pocketbook concerns — were largely already in Harris’ corner, the thinking goes. Her paid ads, of course, kept hitting those bread-and-butter issues, of course, and some of those same Democrats were pleased to see Harris eventually alight on message that sewed Trump’s penchant for revenge (his “enemies list”) together with her middle-class policy agenda (her “to-do list”). They just wish she would have gotten there sooner. Notably, last night in Michigan, Harris didn’t mention Trump at all — an assiduous choice for one of her final events, per NBC’s Yamiche Alcindor. Good Monday morning. Thanks for reading Playbook. Drop us a line: Rachael Bade and Eugene Daniels.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Elections come and go — but one thing never changes: Big Pharma wants to increase their profits at the expense of everyone else.
That’s why Big Pharma’s top priority for Congress is a self-serving agenda called “delinking,” which would hand big drug companies a massive $32 billion windfall in higher profits, all while protecting their otherwise limitless pricing power and increasing health care costs for employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | THEY’RE BACK, PART I — “Republicans bring back fake electors in battlegrounds,” by Liz Crampton and Kyle Cheney: “Of the 93 Republicans designated as prospective presidential electors for Trump from the seven battleground states, eight are facing felony charges for signing false Electoral College certificates in 2020, according to a POLITICO analysis. Another five signed similar certificates in 2020 but were not charged. And at least six others played notable roles in challenging the results of the 2020 election or promoting election conspiracy theories. All told, at least 1 in 5 prospective Trump electors from battleground states this year had some connection to the scheme to overturn the 2020 election.” THEY’RE BACK, PART II — “The Proud Boys Have Regrouped and Are Signaling Election Plans,” by WSJ’s Tawnell Hobbs and Jennifer Levitz: “While it isn’t clear what the far-right group is planning or how coordinated its plans are, many chapters are amplifying election-cheating claims made by Trump or his allies and discussing potential responses … Chapters have gathered across state lines, talked about watching polls and have been boasting about attending Trump rallies to protect the former president.”
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Stop Big Pharma from undermining competition and increasing costs for employers, patients and taxpayers. | | | | | WHAT'S HAPPENING TODAY | | On the Hill The Senate and the House are out. What we’re watching … After tomorrow’s election will come lots of leadership wrangling — and not just for the fancy Capitol office suites. Alongside the closely watched races inside the House and Senate GOP, the New Democrat Coalition will be electing new leadership this fall following the retirement of chair ANNIE KUSTER (D-Maine). The Washington Examiner’s Rachel Schilke dives deep on the race between Reps. SHARICE DAVIDS (D-Kan.) and BRAD SCHNEIDER (D-Ill.) — both vice chairs who are seeking to lead the influential group of pragmatic centrists. At the White House Biden will return to the White House from Wilmington, Delaware. At 3:15 p.m., he’ll make thank-you calls to troops who recently participated in operations against the Islamic State. On the trail Harris will hold a campaign event in Scranton, Pennsylvania, before delivering remarks at a rally in Allentown. She will later travel to rallies and concerts in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Walz and GWEN WALZ will host a meet and greet in St. Paul, Minnesota, before departing for Wisconsin, where they will rally supporters and get out the vote in La Crosse, Stevens Point and Milwaukee Trump will hold rallies in Raleigh, North Carolina, at 10 a.m.; in Reading, Pennsylvania, at 2 p.m.; in Pittsburgh at 6 p.m.; and in Grand Rapids, Michigan, at 10:30 p.m. Sen. JD VANCE (R-Ohio) will hold rallies in La Crosse, Wisconsin, at 10:30 a.m. Eastern; in Flint, Michigan, at 1:15 p.m.; in Atlanta at 5 p.m.; and in Newtown, Pennsylvania, at 8:30 p.m.
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Donald Trump aired plenty of familiar grievances in a series of recent rallies. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE CLOSER — If Republicans hoped that Trump might wrap up the campaign with a disciplined message focused on the economy and immigration, yesterday’s leading headlines told a very different story. In a series of rallies alternately described in the press as dark, rambling or sluggish, Trump aired plenty of familiar grievances and some new ones. Most notably, he said he “shouldn’t have left” the White House in 2020, per the NYT, and he joked that he wouldn’t “mind” if a would-be assassin had to “shoot through the fake news” to reach him. It was “a further escalation of his violent rhetoric” against journalists, Lisa Kashinsky and Andrew Howard report from Lititz, Pennsylvania. (STEVEN CHEUNG claimed that wasn’t what Trump meant.) There were also more election fraud claims, per Lisa, and a fictional AL CAPONE-MIKE LINDELL story that seemed to confuse a North Carolina crowd, Natalie Allison reports. Notably, as RFK Jr. grabs late-breaking headlines for fringe public health ideas, Trump isn’t backing away from them. In an interview with NBC’s Dasha Burns and Alexandra Marquez, Trump didn’t rule out banning some vaccines and said Kennedy’s idea to advise against water fluoridation “sounds OK to me.” On the flip side: Despite Harris’ Trumpless rally yesterday — part of a “fully positive” closing, one senior official told Alcindor — Elena Schneider reports on the ground that Harris supporters are hoping the negative Trump headlines reach undecided voters. RACE FOR THE WHITE HOUSE
|  Both the Harris and Trump campaigns are doubling down in Pennsylvania in the closing days. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | KEYS TO THE KEYSTONE STATE — Pennsylvania has long been considered the likeliest tipping point, and both campaigns are doubling down on the state in the closing days. POLITICO reporters fanned out across the state for a series of snapshots this morning that capture the state’s countervailing trends: “Perhaps more than any of the other six swing states, Pennsylvania reflects America,” Holly Otterbein writes. The scramble for Latino voters is especially prominent. A new Univision poll finds them breaking for Harris 64 percent to 30 percent, while voters are aware of and offended by Trump’s Madison Square Garden controversy by wide margins. HuffPost’s Daniel Marans reports from Nazareth that the outrage is spurring Puerto Rican turnout for Harris — and Trump’s garbage truck gimmick is even backfiring with some voters who didn’t realize he was riffing on Biden’s comment instead of TONY HINCHCLIFFE’s. But, but, but: In a big Reading dispatch for POLITICO Magazine, Jack Herrera reports that it could be too late for Dems to win back Puerto Ricans and Dominicans, with whom Trump’s ground game has been superior for months. Across Pennsylvania, there are plenty of conflicting signs. Democrats think they’ve made improvements with rural voters, NBC’s Allan Smith reports from Mercer. And Black male celebrities are making a pro-Harris, identity-based appeal to Black men, Teresa Wiltz reports from Philadelphia. But Marcia Brown reports from Philly that Dems could be doomed by the fact that the area has seen some of the nation’s worst food price inflation. And the Trump campaign sees ELON MUSK making a real difference for them with young men, N.Y. Mag’s David Freedlander reports. Running through the tape: Biden stumped for Harris in Pennsylvania this weekend, Adam Cancryn reports from Scranton. First lady — and Pennsylvania native — JILL BIDEN did the same at a series of events, CNN’s Arlette Saenz reports from Spring House. And Harris’ final rallies in the state today will feature LADY GAGA, OPRAH WINFREY, KATY PERRY, THE ROOTS, ANDRA DAY, JAZMINE SULLIVAN, FAT JOE and more, per Rolling Stone. THE EARLY VOTE — In hurricane-pummeled western North Carolina, early voter turnout has actually been higher than in the rest of the state — and it’s pretty high all over, per the AP. THE STAKES FOR NOVEMBER — “Already in political crosshairs, fates of NOAA and FEMA hang in the election balance,” by NBC’s Denise Chow and Chase Cain BATTLE FOR THE BALLOT — A federal judge yesterday allowed challenges to more than 2,000 Iowa voters to go forward in a win for GOP Secretary of State PAUL PATE, the Des Moines Register’s Stephen Gruber-Miller reports. … On the flip side, Maricopa County, Arizona, restored about 2,000 voters who’d been wrongly flagged, Votebeat’s Jen Fifield scooped. THE PRICE OF WHISTLEBLOWING — “Canvassers for Elon Musk’s America PAC Were Fired and Stranded in Michigan After Speaking Out,” by Jake Lahut for Wired RACE FOR THE SENATE WARNING SIGNS FOR JACKY ROSEN — Nevada Democrats are growing more nervous about a SAM BROWN upset based on early-voting data and tighter polls, Axios’ Stephen Neukam reports. As the L.A. Times’ Seema Mehta captures from Las Vegas, economic woes — especially around the cost of living and housing — are a major issue for many Nevada voters, giving Republicans an anti-incumbent opening. WARNING SIGNS FOR TIM SHEEHY — Could Sen. JON TESTER (D-Mont.) pull out an upset? NOTUS’ Alex Roarty reports that Democrats aren’t counting him out yet — their polling has seen Tester recover some ground and move within the polling margin of error, in part due to the Sheehy bullet wound controversy. RACE FOR THE HOUSE GABE VASQUEZ’S CHALLENGE — The swing-district Democratic New Mexico congressman is trying to win over Latino voters by taking on economic and border concerns head on — and convincing the Trump-curious that Democrats’ values align with Latinos’, WaPo’s Mariana Alfaro reports. WHAT STEVE SCALISE IS WATCHING — The House majority leader tells Axios’ Juliegrace Brufke in Stafford, Virginia, that a number of House Republicans could be in the mix for administration roles if Trump wins. So he hopes the GOP can expand its majority in the House to eight to 12 seats, to avoid chaotic narrow margins if a few members depart for the admin. RACE FOR THE STATES MUM’S THE WORD — Harris has now cast her vote by mail — but she’s still refusing to say how she voted on the tough-on-crime Proposition 36, per Myah Ward. Emily Schultheis has an interesting look at how the ballot measure came to amass so much support in liberal California. POLL POSITION National: Tied, per Leger/the N.Y. Post. Harris +1, per Patriot Polling. … Michigan: Harris +2 and Rep. ELISSA SLOTKIN +2, per Mitchell Research & Communications. Trump +0.4 and MIKE ROGERS +0.1, per Trafalgar. Harris +1 and Slotkin +2, per Patriot Polling. Presidential and Senate both tied, per InsiderAdvantage. … Wisconsin: Harris +1 and ERIC HOVDE +1, per Trafalgar. Harris +0.3 and Sen. TAMMY BALDWIN +2, per Patriot Polling. Trump +1 and Hovde +1, per InsiderAdvantage. … Pennsylvania: Trump +1 and Sen. BOB CASEY +1, per Patriot Polling. Trump +1 and Casey +1, per InsiderAdvantage. … North Carolina: Trump +2, per Patriot Polling. Trump +2, per InsiderAdvantage. … Georgia: Trump +2, per Patriot Polling. … Arizona: Trump +4 and Rep. RUBEN GALLEGO +2, per Patriot Polling. Trump +3 and Gallego +2, per InsiderAdvantage. … Nevada: Trump +0.1 and Rosen +3, per Patriot Polling. … Maine: Trump +4 in the 2nd District and Rep. JARED GOLDEN +1, per the University of New Hampshire. … New Hampshire: Harris +5 and KELLY AYOTTE +4, per UNH.
| | | | | PLAYBOOK READS | | AMERICA AND THE WORLD ONE TO WATCH — Iran has imprisoned American journalist REZA VALIZADEH for months, the State Department told AP’s Jon Gambrell yesterday. Valizadeh, who’s Iranian American, had previously worked for Radio Farda, which is part of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty/the U.S. Agency for Global Media. Valizadeh’s detention raises the prospect of another high-profile hostage problem between the U.S. and Iran. And the revelation comes at a particularly tense moment as the region braces for more potential Iranian reprisals against Israel. The State Department says it’s working with Switzerland to learn more about the situation. It’s not yet clear what the charges against Valizadeh are. POLICY CORNER
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Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg now has a much more assertive regulatory approach to corporate power. | Stephen Voss for POLITICO | FASCINATING FEATURE — Nancy Scola has a big POLITICO Magazine feature about the antitrust education of Transportation Secretary PETE BUTTIGIEG that’s worth your time. The 2022 Southwest Airlines meltdown “sent me into orbit,” Buttigieg tells her, and helped usher him toward a much more assertive regulatory approach to corporate power. “Buttigieg has moved beyond simply punishing bad actors to using the powers of his executive agency to restructure a market it oversees,” Nancy writes. And that has led to a major reassessment of Buttigieg from “the slice of the political left that has embraced an antimonopoly, antitrust framework,” which “once saw Buttigieg as an adversary.”
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association:   Savings secured by PBMs are the only real check on Big Pharma’s pricing power. | | | 2026/2028 WATCH (YES, REALLY) GOVERNOR PETE? — Buttigieg told AP’s Joey Cappelletti that he wasn’t ruling out a Michigan gubernatorial bid, saying he’ll evaluate his next steps after the election. FIRST IN POLITICO — The cryptocurrency super PAC network Fairshake will have $78 million on hand heading into the next cycle, Jasper Goodman reports for Pros this morning. That includes a new $23 million pledge from Andreessen Horowitz and $30 million that wasn’t spent this cycle. The big opening bid means you can bet on the crypto industry continuing to be a significant force in politics, having made a big splash already this year. THE WHITE HOUSE WHAT’S CHANGED, AND WHAT HASN’T — “Biden Wanted to Fix Immigration, but Leaves Behind a System That Is Still Broken,” by NYT’s Michael Shear and Hamed Aleaziz: “[F]or four years, most of those goals were stymied by the need to confront a worldwide surge of displaced people fleeing their homes and a determined Republican opposition … In the end, Mr. Biden’s legacy on immigration was largely limited to his eventual success in reducing illegal border crossings to their lowest levels in more than four years. … [S]ome of his actions at the border moved the problem deeper into the country.”
| | | | REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here. | | | | | | | | PLAYBOOKERS | | | Robert De Niro went “Silver Linings Playbook” for Kamala Harris. Donald Trump got equal time on NBC after Harris’ “Saturday Night Live” cameo. Hillary Clinton stumped for Harris in Florida. Kay Ivey is recovering after being treated for dehydration at a campaign rally. Judith Kent, who’s married to Jamie Dimon, door-knocked for Harris in Michigan. FASHION SECTION — “A Shirt With a Choke Hold on the Political Moment,” by NYT’s Vanessa Friedman: “The tie-front shirts serve as a reminder that no matter how far women have come, it’s not nearly as far as they think.” MEDIA MOVE — Michele Norris is now a senior contributing editor at MSNBC. She recently resigned as a columnist from WaPo over Jeff Bezos’ move to block the paper’s presidential endorsement, and is an NPR alum. WEEKEND WEDDING — Hannah Robinson, deputy comms director at CHIPS for America at the Commerce Department, and Christian Hartranft, chief of staff at the Aspen Institute, got married Saturday at District Winery. Pic HAPPY BIRTHDAY: Playbook’s own Mike DeBonis … Reps. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) and Carol Miller (R-W.Va.) … Semafor’s Ben Smith … Laura Bush … WaPo’s Catherine Rampell … former Rep. John Yarmuth (D-Ky.) … Alex Sanz … Treasury’s Addar Levi … OMB’s Julie Siegel … Michael Clauser … Jessica Reis of Bully Pulpit Interactive … Gabby Orr … Casey Martel … Rick Ungar … Morgan Mohr … Carlos Gutierrez of EmPath … Maggie McNerney … Amanda Thayer … Jean Roseme of Rep. Frederica Wilson’s (D-Fla.) office … Tim Saler … Aaron White of Sen. Peter Welch’s (D-Vt.) office … Julie Tippens … Amanda Eisenberg … Avi Berkowitz … Georgetown Law’s Rima Sirota … Ashley Estes Kavanaugh … Blair Latoff Holmes … Global Counsel’s Joe Armitage … Kevin McVicker of Shirley & McVicker Public Affairs … Michael Hough Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: PBMs are working every day on behalf of employers, helping them provide high-quality, cost-effective prescription drug coverage to employees and their families. But Big Pharma is working to undermine PBM savings by removing the only real check on their otherwise limitless pricing power, and boost drug company profits at the expense of patients and employers.
In fact, Big Pharma-backed legislation targeting PBMs would boost drug company profits and undermine the ability of America’s employers to offer quality, affordable health care coverage — threatening the $1,040 average savings per person PBMs deliver for health plan sponsors.
A world without PBMs is a world without competition in the drug marketplace — which would increase health care costs for hardworking employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stand up for savings and competition. Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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