Monday, November 4, 2024

Trump world readies for trade reboot

Presented by American Chemistry Council: Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Trade examines the latest news in global trade politics and policy.
Nov 04, 2024 View in browser
 
POLITICO Weekly Trade Logo

By Ari Hawkins

Presented by 

American Chemistry Council

With help from Daniel Lippman and Gavin Bade

Robert Lighthizer, U.S. trade representative, speaks during a signing ceremony in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Friday, Aug. 2, 2019.

Donald Trump has reportedly tapped former USTR Robert Lighthizer to craft economic policy for a second administration if Trump wins the election this week. | Kevin Dietsch/Pool via Bloomberg

QUICK FIX

— Donald Trump’s inner circle is already preparing to move fast on trade and tariffs in the first 100 days of a second administration, if he wins the election on Tuesday.

— House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer alleged that U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai was "pressured" to alter her stance on digital trade.

— House Speaker Mike Johnson walked back remarks that suggested he would try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act in the next administration.

It’s Monday, November 4. Welcome to Morning Trade. My favorite tweet of this cycle. Got tips? Suggestions? Want to grab a coffee? Hit us up at: ahawkins@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and dpalmer@politico.com. You can follow us on X: @_AriHawkins, @GavinBade and @tradereporter.

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A message from American Chemistry Council:

Chemistry is elemental to the economy. From boosting U.S. trade, creating high-paying jobs, lifting American manufacturing, driving technology for the next generation of vehicles, making cutting-edge semiconductors – it is all driven by chemistry. The chemical industry contributes over 630 billion dollars annually to the U.S. economy and supports 25% of America’s GDP. That includes generating half a million jobs and accounting for 10% of all U.S. exports. American success relies on American chemistry. Learn more at  http://americanchemistry.com/elemental

 
Driving the day

ALL IN ON TARIFFS: Donald Trump is preparing an aggressive trade agenda for the first 100 days if he wins the election when voters head to the polls tomorrow. That's likely to include executive action on trade and tariffs, although the exact details are still being hammered out.

At the center of Trump’s economic plans is former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who has recently spoken to Trump himself about economic policy planning, according to a person familiar, granted anonymity to discuss private deliberations.

A second person familiar with the transition planning said Lighthizer would be a lead contender for any of the top economic policy positions. That’s a potential indication a second Trump administration would focus intensely on raising tariffs from the jump, despite optimism from some that the former president might take a more targeted approach to tariffs and deal-making.

“There’s one policy area that’s going to be defining for the second Trump administration, and that’s tariffs,” said one person with direct knowledge of policy planning. “And there’s a very small group of people working on that and it’s the most important part of the policy planning for the second administration.”

In fact, Lighthizer is crafting economic policy for the Treasury Department, the National Economic Council and USTR, as is former Trump speechwriter Vince Haley, who is working for the Trump campaign. Jamieson Greer, Lighthizer’s former chief of staff, is also helping craft economic and trade plans.

The full policy agenda is being run by an informal web of former Trump advisers and MAGA loyalists who are seeking to be better prepared than they were in 2016 to implement Trump’s priorities soon after the inauguration, particularly on priorities like trade.

The transition is formally being led by Trump’s former Small Business Administration chief Linda McMahon, who is handling the policy side, and billionaire financier Howard Lutnick, who is overseeing the personnel vetting.

“The personnel effort is the overwhelming focus of the transition,” said another person with knowledge of the efforts, who said they started several weeks ago and that interviews are occurring for prospective staffers.

The roster of individuals also includes Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who is involved with the economic portfolio. Office of Management and Budget general counsel Mark Paoletta, who is helping craft the policy playbook for the Justice Department, and former special envoy for Iran Brian Hook, who is involved with preparing a Trump State Department.

POLITICO staff has more on transition plans here.

On the Hill

GOP-LED HOUSE PANEL RIPS DIGITAL PIVOT: In a new report, House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer claimed the Federal Trade Commission and Department of Justice could have “pressured” USTR Katherine Tai to alter the U.S.' stance on digital trade.

“Rather than fulfill her obligation to ensure the FTC adheres to its independent role, our investigation reveals that Chair Lina Khan abused her power and bent the knee to the Biden-Harris White House,” Comer said in a statement released alongside the report.

The 59-page report, published Thursday, focuses particularly on Khan for several supposed offenses and rebukes the Biden-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

“Chair Khan appears to be using the IPEF negotiations to advance the FTC’s anti-business policies instead of advancing U.S. economic interests,” the committee wrote . “It appears that the FTC and DOJ pressured Ambassador Tai to abandon the digital trade provisions because they believe other countries should be allowed to single out U.S. tech companies.”

USTR denied the allegations in a statement to Morning Trade and said any engagement has been standard procedure. 

“Under previous administrations, USTR similarly consulted with DOJ and FTC on trade negotiations related to digital trade. USTR’s consultation process has always been robust and includes engagement with interagency partners, stakeholders, and Congress,” Sam Michel, a USTR spokesperson, said.

The DOJ and the FTC did not respond to Morning Trade’s requests for comment.

REGULATORY REVIEW

BACKPEDALING ON CHIPS: House Speaker Mike Johnson backpedaled Friday after a local journalist recorded him saying “we probably will” try to repeal the CHIPS and Science Act if his party takes control of Congress and Trump wins the White House.

“As I have further explained and clarified, I fully support Micron coming to Central N.Y., and the CHIPS Act is not on the agenda for repeal,” Johnson told POLITICO through a spokesperson. Johnson suggested he might instead attempt to cut the law’s “costly regulations and Green New Deal requirements.”

Reminder: A Syracuse University student journalist filmed Johnson responding to a question of whether he might repeal the 2022 law in light of Trump recently calling it “so bad.” Johnson responded, “I expect that we probably will but we haven’t developed that part of the agenda yet. We got to get over the election first.”

The CHIPS and Science Act passed with bipartisan support in both chambers, setting aside $39 billion in subsidies for semiconductor manufacturing.

Christine Mui has more here.

TREASURY RAMPS UP SCRUTINY: The Biden administration on Friday finalized plans to tighten scrutiny of foreign entities’ purchases of land near more than 60 U.S. military installations amid concerns about real estate deals tied to China or other foreign adversaries.

The Treasury Department unveiled a final regulation that empowers the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS, to examine real estate transactions involving foreign entities that occur near U.S. military facilities.

Michael Stratford has more.

 

A message from American Chemistry Council:

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On the Move

Susie Park Hodge has been promoted to be associate general counsel for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative.

Catherine White has been promoted to spokesperson and strategic policy adviser at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She previously was deputy press secretary.

Dana Fager is now director for Europe and the Middle East in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. She most recently was an international trade specialist at the Department of Commerce.

TRADE OVERNIGHT

— Officials at USTR have visited every U.S. state since President Joe Biden entered office in a “historic first,” the agency said.

— USTR secures renewed market access for U.S. apples in Indonesia, the agency said.

— Joe Biden's chips achievement is losing support before the money actually rolls out, POLITICO reports.

— Chinese solar companies came to America for IRA windfalls, per POLITICO Pro.

— WTO chief braces for a fresh fight with Donald Trump, POLITICO Pro reports.

THAT’S ALL FOR MORNING TRADE! See you again soon! In the meantime, drop the team a line: dpalmer@politico.com, gbade@politico.com and ahawkins@politico.com. Follow us @POLITICOPro and @Morning_Trade.

 

A message from American Chemistry Council:

Chemistry flows through both the U.S. and global economies. Chemical manufacturing is one of the nation’s largest exporters, accounting for one in every ten U.S. export dollars. By exporting nearly 200 billion dollars annually, American chemical producers support jobs at home, contribute to a positive trade balance, and help the U.S. compete with other countries.
 
The chemical industry is woven into every aspect of our economy, from agriculture and electronics to medicine, energy, and construction. They all depend on chemistry. As domestic and global demand for chemicals continues to rise, American chemistry will be at the forefront of fueling economic growth, powering innovation, and driving sustainable solutions. Discover how chemistry is vital to supporting everyday life and strengthening our future.

Learn more at http://americanchemistry.com/elemental

 
 

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