Monday, November 4, 2024

Vance’s NH closer offers Dems an opening

Presented by Johnson & Johnson: Kelly Garrity's must-read rundown of what's up on Beacon Hill and beyond.
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By Kelly Garrity

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Johnson & Johnson

T-MINUS ONE — As JD Vance delivered his campaign’s closing message at a rally in New Hampshire last night, he handed local Democrats looking to flip the governor’s office fuel for their own.

The GOP vice presidential nominee made a last-minute stop in Derry yesterday, after swinging through battleground North Carolina and Pennsylvania in the final sprint to Election Day.

New Hampshire hasn’t picked a Republican for president since 2000, and the Republican ticket has trailed in the polls since Vice President Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee. But Vance said his visit two days out was a sign of the Trump campaign’s confidence.

“I got to be honest, a couple months ago I wasn’t necessarily sure that the day before the last full day of the campaign, we’d be in the great state of New Hampshire,” Vance told supporters at Derry’s New England Sports Center. “But I think that it suggests that what we’re doing is expanding the map — we’re bringing new voters into this coalition.”

Republican congressional candidates Lily Tang Williams and Russell Prescott warmed up the crowd before Vance took the stage to deliver a roughly 30-minute speech slamming Harris over the White House’s handling of the economy and immigration.

Former GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte was conspicuously absent from the event — but that didn’t stop Democrats from using Vance’s swing to link the gubernatorial hopeful to Donald Trump.

“I think it's clear JD Vance came to New Hampshire because he knows that he and Donald Trump have a strong supporter in Kelly Ayotte,” Gov. Maura Healey, a New Hampshire native and regular Democratic surrogate in the state, told Playbook last night.

“The bottom line is she cannot distance herself. People know who Kelly Ayotte is, and Kelly Ayotte equals Donald Trump,” she added.

It’s a link Democrats have repeatedly looked to highlight in a state Trump has lost each time he’s been on the ballot. Democrats have pointed to Ayotte's embrace of the former president this cycle (after disavowing him in 2016) to paint the former senator as untrustworthy. Ayotte, meanwhile, has pitched herself as a Republican in the style of outgoing Gov. Chris Sununu, regularly campaigning alongside the popular moderate.

Sununu was able to outrun Trump in past elections, but whether Ayotte will pull it off in an open race remains to be seen. Recent polls show Trump and Vance closing what in September some surveys showed was a double-digit gap, and a University of New Hampshire poll released yesterday shows Ayotte leading Democratic gubernatorial candidate Joyce Craig 48 to 44 (margin of error: +/- 1.8 percentage points).

Even if Republicans lose New Hampshire at the top of the ticket, the closer Trump comes to victory in the Granite State, the fewer ticket-splitters Ayotte needs to notch a win.

GOOD MONDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS. Happy election eve — what are you watching tomorrow? Drop me a line: kgarrity@politico.com

TODAY — Secretary of State Bill Galvin briefs members of the press on the election at 10:30 a.m. Gov. Maura Healey is in New Hampshire to kick off canvasses for Democratic candidates in Exeter at 10 a.m., Manchester at noon and Nashua at 2 p.m. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu holds a virtual briefing with the city’s election commissioner to provide an update on election preparations at 11:30 a.m.

 

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YAHD SIGNS AND BUMPAH STICKAHS

CLOSING TIME — Republican Senate candidate John Deaton delivered one of his final pre-Election Day pitches to Bay State voters with an appearance on WBZ’s “Keller @ Large” over the weekend, as the latest polling shows the political newcomer still trailing Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren by a wide margin.

A University of New Hampshire survey released Sunday shows Warren still leading Deaton by double digits, 60 to 37. Part of the problem: a lot of voters still aren’t familiar with the attorney and cryptocurrency advocate — 32 percent said they didn’t know enough to say if they view him favorably or unfavorably.

But Deaton could be back for another round once this election ends.

“We have to do something about the one party rule here in Massachusetts,” he told WBZ’s Jon Keller when asked if he plans to remain active in GOP politics in the state.

“So that sounds to me like a yes, even if you’re not our next senator, we’ll still be hearing from you?” Keller asked.

“Yes, you will,” Deaton replied.

2026 WATCH — “Baker has an edge on Markey, if he’d run,” by Matthew Medsger, Boston Herald: “The fantasy political drafting for the 2026 midterm election in Massachusetts has already begun, and pollsters have found that the Bay State’s junior senator could be in trouble if he’s forced to take on the state’s former governor. According to the latest polling by the MassINC Polling Group, former Gov. Charlie Baker could stand a chance of unseating U.S. Sen. Ed Markey, should he choose to run in the upcoming midterm elections.”

Plenty of voters (19 percent) surveyed in the MassInc poll said they were still undecided, given the two choices — and a lot could change between now and Election Day in 2026 (remember early 2020 polls?).

As for Markey, he’s “never been more energized,” he told Playbook after a spirited speech rallying Democrats in New Hampshire Friday. “I'm really looking forward to continuing to fight for the future of Massachusetts and our country and our planet,” he said.

Like many of the state’s top Democrats, Markey has been on the campaign trail this cycle — stumping across the country for Harris, stopping in the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania.

“I'm just a road warrior out there fighting to get Kamala over the finish line,” he said.

“Harris and Trump volunteers from Massachusetts fan out to purple states to swing the election,” by Phillip Martin, GBH News. 

“In an 'emotional election,' Mass. ramps up security,” by Deborah Becker, WBUR: “On Tuesday, the state will activate a Homeland Security Operations Center at the Massachusetts State Police Headquarters in Framingham. The center will serve as a ‘command hub for election-related activity’ that will monitor and respond to any potential threats and coordinate with federal and local law enforcement and election officials, according to the Executive Office of Public Safety and Security. The center is expected to operate through at least Wednesday.”

“In Governor’s Council races, voters could make history by electing first women of color,” by  John Hilliard, The Boston Globe: “Two of the candidates in contested races —Tamisha Civil and Eunice Zeigler, both Democrats who are Haitian American — would also become the first women of color to serve on the council if elected. In separate interviews, both said they appreciate that history could be made in the election, but each said they are focused on their own campaigns for office.”

WATCH — “Lt. Gov. Driscoll goes On The Record about presidential race, ballot questions,” by WCVB.  

“Bluebikes to be free on Election Day,” by Camilo Fonseca, The Boston Globe. 

BALLOT BATTLES

“Massachusetts ballot question campaigns rife with out-of-state money ahead of election,” by Chris Van Buskirk, Boston Herald: “A group backing a ballot question that would decriminalize psychedelics for mental health treatments raised more than $4.2 million from out-of-state donors over the past two years as other campaigns reported millions in contributions from beyond the Bay State’s borders, according to state campaign finance data. The dollars, cataloged in a compilation of mid-October reports published by the Office of Campaign and Political Finance Friday, show the extent to which interest groups and individuals outside Massachusetts have continued to wade into the fight over consequential voter-approved policies.”

TRAIL MIX

“Is There a Future for MAGA After Trump?,” by David Siders, POLITICO. 

“‘I Think It Will Happen Again if Trump Is the President’: The Ongoing Trauma of Family Separation,” by Myah Ward, POLITICO. 

“Trump says he doesn’t ‘mind’ if someone has to ‘shoot through’ the media,” by Lisa Kashinsky and Andrew Howard, POLITICO. 

FROM THE HUB

“MassLandlords sues Boston, says city withheld public records to protect Mayor Wu, hide unlawful rent control lobbying,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald: “A trade association for Massachusetts landlords is in a legal battle with the City of Boston over public records it says the city withheld to hide unlawful lobbying from housing advocates that influenced the mayor’s stalled rent control plan. Douglas Quattrochi, executive director of MassLandlords, Inc., which filed a lawsuit against the City of Boston in Suffolk Superior Court last year, alleges in an Aug. 7 affidavit that the city failed to produce 10 documents he believes to exist around the formation of the city’s Rent Stabilization Advisory Committee.”

 

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DAY IN COURT

“St. Elizabeth's Medical Center's landlord sues state over eminent domain taking,” by Deborah Becker, WBUR: “The landlord of St. Elizabeth Medical Center in Brighton has made good on its promise to fight the state's takeover of the hospital by eminent domain. St. Elizabeth LLC, a subsidiary of Apollo Global Management, has filed a complaint asking the court to stop the takeover, arguing that it's unconstitutional, the state offered too little for the property, and that state officials favored another private hospital operator and therefore the takeover was not a ‘public purpose’ as required by law.”

FROM THE 413

“Plans for new cannabis dispensary moving along in Sunderland,” by Chris Larabee, Daily Hampshire Gazette.

“Clarksburg residents to decide in Tuesday's election whether to adopt the Community Preservation Act,” by Sten Spinella, The Berkshire Eagle: “It took some time, but Clarksburg voters are one step away from joining the 196 Massachusetts communities that have adopted the Community Preservation Act. Clarksburg is one of 11 municipalities across Massachusetts voting on CPA adoption, in addition to five statewide ballot questions, in Tuesday's election. In the Berkshires, Sheffield also is voting on adopting the CPA.

THE LOCAL ANGLE

“Lowell Housing Authority residents, staff decry homeless crisis,” by Melanie Gilbert, The Lowell Sun.

“Dispensary suing city while owner seeks renewal of host agreement,” by Jonah Frangiosa, The Eagle-Tribune.

“'An avoidable tragedy': Rally for homeless at City Hall Saturday calls for real solutions,” by Kinga Borondy, Telegram & Gazette: “Advocates for Worcester’s unhoused population gathered on the front steps of City Hall Saturday, calling on the city to find real solutions to the problem, from installing public bathrooms to approving sanctioned encampments, even as it seeks solutions to the lack of available and affordable housing crisis.”

HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH

HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to state Rep. Ken Gordon, Michael Fontneau, Kit Seelye, Julie Siegel, Morgan Mohr, Jean Roseme and Avi Berkowitz.

 

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