News: The early House calls to watch for Tuesday night

Monday, November 4, 2024

The early House calls to watch for Tuesday night

Nov 04, 2024

With assists from POLITICO’s Congress team

A sign directs people to an early voting site.

A handful of battleground districts in the Eastern time zone could help predict whether Democrats can take back the majority from Republicans or if the GOP can keep it. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO

ONE DAY TO GO

We’re about 24 hours out until the polls start to close across the country. We certainly won’t know who controls the House right away, but let’s talk about some races to pay attention to for some early indicators.

A handful of battleground districts in the Eastern time zone — if ballot counting and results come out quickly — could help predict whether Democrats can take back the majority from Republicans or if the GOP can keep it.

What Republicans are watching: They want to see a win in Pennsylvania’s 7th District very closely, a race between incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) and Republican challenger Ryan Mackenzie. If Republicans take that seat, they believe it means former President Donald Trump is going to push a lot of their underfunded challengers over the finish line, a Republican campaign source told Inside Congress. The GOP sees North Carolina’s 1st District contest between incumbent Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.) and Republican Laurie Buckhout similarly.

Other seats Republicans are scrutinizing:

Virginia’s 7th District, the seat being vacated by Rep. Abigail Spanberger, where Republican Derrick Anderson is running against Democrat Eugene Vindman.
Michigan’s 7th District, which Republican Tom Barrett could flip against Democrat Curtis Hertel
Michigan’s 8th District, where Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet is facing off against Republican Paul Junge.

And last but not least: If incumbent Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) successfully defends his seat against Democrat Mondaire Jones in New York’s 17th District, it would be a signal of possible positive vibes in their targeted New York races.
What Democrats are watching: Democrats are monitoring several races in Virginia and Iowa (where polls don’t close until 10 p.m. Eastern), a Democratic campaign aide says, because the states are quick to count ballots and accurate with their early results. Some specifics:

Virginia’s 2nd District between Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) and Democratic rival Missy Cotter Smasal.
Virginia’s 7th (see above).
Iowa’s 1st, where Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa) is defending her seat against Democrat Christina Bohannan.
Iowa’s 3rd, where Rep. Zach Nunn (R-Iowa) is facing off against Democrat Lanon Baccam.

What we’re watching: When polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern, POLITICO’s campaign experts will be watching Florida's quick-counting 13th District, where incumbent Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) could face a surprisingly competitive race against Democrat Whitney Fox. At 7:30 p.m. Eastern, we’ll be looking at results in two Ohio districts Dems are trying to hold (which would also be good news for Sen. Sherrod Brown’s chances): The 9th District, where incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio) is running for reelection against Republican Derek Merrin, as well as the 13th District race between Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-Ohio) and Republican Kevin Coughlin.

Important caveat: There are several tight races we’re watching in Arizona and California that will require a few days for final vote tallies. That could mean the House majority won’t be decided this week — or even the week after. Patience will be a virtue.

— Daniella Diaz, with an assist from Steve Shepard

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GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Monday, Nov. 4, where we want to know what your team is eating on Election Night as results roll in. (Seriously, email us.)

DEMOCRATS’ FINAL VIBE CHECKS

Democrats were handed a brutal Senate map this cycle, with incumbents on defense across the nation. Their party’s sitting president dropped out of the race with just months to go, prompting a scramble to form a last-minute presidential campaign. Put simply, it’s been a heck of a cycle for the party.

But Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) had this to say Monday: “I’m optimistic.”

“Democrats have closed the way we should close,” Cardin said. “I don't think the Republicans have. I think Donald Trump has been off-message, and I think that hurts the Republican momentum, not only undecided voters, but undecided whether they're going to vote or not. And I think we have the edge.”

It would be an impressive feat, given this cycle’s map alignment, if Democrats could retain their majority. They are seen as almost certain to lose West VIrginia following Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) retirement. Most polls have moved Montana toward Republicans’ favor. And pickups in Texas and Florida remain a longshot.

Still, Sen. Peter Welch last week told reporters he’s particularly proud of Senate Democrats’ candidates, citing “that they've consistently run ahead of Biden and now Harris, and as is always the case, the gap is narrowing. And I think at the end of the day, in these close races, we're going to prevail.”

The day after: Democrats are already on their toes for challenges to the election outcome. Several states are expected to be close, and many remain cautious of former President Donald Trump casting doubt on the election if he loses, as he did in 2020.

“There is the domestic problems that we have in how Donald Trump has portrayed the free and fair elections being only one that he can win,” Cardin said. “So yes, we are concerned about that.”

— Ursula Perano

JEFFRIES KNOCKS THE GOP ON ELECTION CERTIFICATION

Hurley, NEW YORK — House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, on the eve of Election Day, said a scenario where House Speaker Mike Johnson refuses to certify the presidential race results is a “hypothetical” but also called Republicans “irresponsible” for declining to commit to the process.

“I think it’s irresponsible that House Republicans have repeatedly refused to state unequivocally that they will certify the election results, even if they disagree with the outcome,” Jeffries said in New York’s Hudson Valley, where he was stumping for vulnerable colleague Rep. Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.). “House Democrats have made clear that we are going to stand up for the peaceful transfer of power, because that is what we do in America.”

But the House’s highest-ranking Democrat also said he didn’t believe such a stalemate would occur because he is confident his party will retake the majority. That said, Democratic leaders have made it clear they’d certify a Trump victory if it happened and that they want a drama-free transfer of power.

— Emily Ngo

HUDDLE HOTDISH

Mike Johnson’s (then) five-year-old son delivered a super cute robocall when his dad first got elected to Congress.

The 2024 U.S. Capitol Gingerbread House is officially under construction.

Hearing reports that Mary Gay Scanlon was a “one flip wonder” at the Philadelphia Eagles tailgate while playing flip cup on Sunday.

Speaking of cute kids, Jeff Jackson’s son weighed in with his election forecast.

The Onion’s magic wall is going deep.

QUICK LINKS

The greatest threat to McGuire: A write-in campaign within his own party , from Jason Armesto in The Daily Progress

Security, Legal Insurance, Disguises: Democrats Are Preparing for the Worst After the Election, from Riley Rogerson and Matt Fuller at NOTUS

House speaker 'doesn’t understand’ Central N.Y., say critics after CHIPS comment, from Kevin Frey at NY1

Father of GOP Congressman Brandon Williams supports Kamala Harris for President, from Matt Mulcahy in CNY Central

Dems scramble to hold Katie Porter’s seat as Republicans gain ground, from Christopher Cadelago

On eve of election, Washington GOP tells Spanish-speaking voters Democrats ‘hate you’ and ‘hate God,’ from Orion Donovan Smith at the Spokesman-Review

The SALT Deduction Fight Is Coming Back — Whoever Wins the Election, from Richard Rubin at the Wall Street Journal

TRANSITIONS

Sydney Hess has been promoted to be a legislative aide for Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.).

Josh Gregory will be press secretary for Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). He was previously an associate at Penta Group.

Emily Mace and Dainsworth Chambers are joining AstraZeneca’s federal affairs team. Mace previously worked in Rep. Larry Buschon’s (R-Ind.) office. Chambers was previously territory manager at Apria Healthcare.

TOMORROW IN CONGRESS

The House will convene for a pro forma session at 5 p.m.

The Senate is out.

TUESDAY AROUND THE HILL

Preparing for Election Day!

TRIVIA

FRIDAY’S ANSWER: Chase Davis was the first person to correctly answer that Thomas Reed was the speaker of the House, who following an objection from a member to being counted as present during a quorum call, said: “The chair is making a statement of the fact that the gentleman from Kentucky is present. Does he deny it?”

TODAY’S QUESTION, from Nick Wu: In 1826, Jacksonian Henry Horn and Federalist John Sergeant both received 1,597 votes in this state's second congressional district, leading the governor to call the seat vacant.

The first person to correctly guess gets a mention in the next edition of Inside Congress. Send your answers to insidecongress@politico.com.

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