| | | | |  | | By Kimberly Leonard | | Presented by |  | | | |  Republican Rep. Daniel Perez of Miami is the incoming state House speaker. | Phil Sears/AP | Good morning and welcome to Election Eve. Amid Florida’s red shift, one of the Florida Democratic Party’s main goals for Tuesday is to try to flip enough seats to end the Republican supermajority in the Legislature. As POLITICO’s Gary Fineout reports: “It’s a goal that will require Democrats to overcome a persistent and growing voter registration gap and a substantial financial disadvantage. But it’s arguably an achievable goal since there are more than a dozen seats held by Republicans in districts that were won by President Joe Biden in the 2020 election.” Democrats need to pick up just five seats to break the supermajority in the state House. But incoming House Speaker Daniel Perez of Miami told Fineout he was “confident” Republicans would successfully defend the seats it won two years ago during the GOP red wave and may even knock off some Democrats. Turnout for early voting and vote by mail shows Republicans way ahead, by over 845,000 votes. With all that in mind, here are key state House contests to watch Tuesday: Democratic state Rep. Tom Keen v. Republican Erika Booth: Democrats often cite the House District 35 race as the reason why they have a shot in Florida, pointing to Keen’s special election win that focused on abortion rights and property insurance costs. Keen flipped the district’s open seat in January, a time when Gov. Ron DeSantis was away on the presidential campaign trail. Now Booth gets a rematch. Republican State Rep. Susan Plasencia v. Democrat Nate Douglas: Plasencia, who authored the law that provided universal school vouchers in Florida, is defending her Florida House District 37 seat against 23-year-old Douglas. The district includes the massive University of Central Florida and would have gone to Biden by double digits under the current lines. Republican state Rep. David Smith v. Democrat Sarah Henry: Smith has raised more money than any other GOP state House member in his bid to keep his Florida House District 38 seat. The three-term retired Marine and business consultant won his seat by roughly 3,000 votes against Henry, a nonprofit manager, two years ago. Republican state Rep. Carolina Amesty v. Democrat Leonard Spencer: Amesty was arrested in August, when she was charged with four counts related to alleged forgery (She pled not guilty.). Spencer, an Amazon exec who used to work at Disney, hopes to flip Florida House District 45. The district houses Walt Disney World and Biden won it by 5.5 points in 2020, according to the Orlando Sentinel. Republican state Rep. Paula Stark v. Democrat Maria Revelles: Stark, a former local news publisher who now runs an economic development nonprofit, is another Republican who won during the 2022 red wave. House District 47 is blue-leaning, and Stark has faced controversy over late House expense reports. Her challenger, Revelles, is Puerto Rican and a career union organizer. Republican state Rep. Peggy Gossett-Seidman v. Democrat Jay Shooster: Gossett-Seidman is a former sports journalist whose bill on releasing formerly sealed grand jury testimony on Jeffrey Epstein got a lot of fanfare from DeSantis. The House District 91 race is expected to be close because Shooster is better funded. Democrat Rachelle Litt v. Republican Meg Weinberger: The seat for state House District 94 is vacant following GOP Rep. Rick Roth term-limiting out. Litt has worked in nonpartisan municipal government and in the pharmacy field, while Trump-endorsed “MAGA Meg” Weinberger is Palm Beach chair of Moms for Liberty and an animal rescuer. Republican state Rep. Fabián Basabe v. Democrat Joe Saunders: Basabe, a Miami Beach Republican, was sued by former aides who accused him of sexual harassment. Basabe has denied the allegations and a House investigation found no evidence of wrongdoing. Saunders, a former Orlando-area legislator who’s an adjunct professor at Florida International University, hopes to flip Florida House District 106. Republican state Rep. Vicki Lopez v. Democrat Jacqueline Gross-Kellogg: Lopez has become known as the “condo Queen” of the Legislature, given the building safety laws she authored following the partial collapse in Surfside in 2021. But Lopez is in hot water after a story from the Tributary reported she cosponsored a bill that financially benefited her family — news that caused the Miami Herald to switch its House District 113 endorsement to underdog Gross-Kellogg. Lopez’s campaign said she co-sponsored numerous bills that year and that her adult son got a job with the company “under his own merits.” Note: Tuesday's Playbook will feature additional races and themes to watch. Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job or any other nugget Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
| | | | A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers For stepping up during Hurricanes Milton and Helene by helping thousands of Floridians get to shelters and support centers. Your efforts helped keep our communities safe. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | |  | CAMPAIGN MODE | | |  Ken Griffin, founder and CEO of the Citadel hedge fund, speaks at the Milken Institute's Global Conference at the Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California, on May 6, 2024. | Apu Gomes/Getty Images | FUNDRAISING HAUL — “Billionaire Ken Griffin fuels Florida Republicans cash dominance,” reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout . “Buoyed by a last-minute $7 million donation from hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin, Florida Republicans pulled in nearly $72 million in the weeks leading up to the Nov. 5 election — more than twice that of Democrats in the state … Florida Republicans have focused the bulk of their financial resources on trying to defeat amendments that would guarantee abortion access and legalize recreational marijuana if approved by voters. An analysis from AdImpact shows that the party has paid for nearly $40 million worth of television ads urging a "no" vote on the two measures.” FEDERAL ELECTION OBSERVERS COMING — “The Justice Department is sending personnel to 86 areas in 27 states, including Broward, Miami-Dade, Orange and Osceola counties in Florida, to ensure compliance with civil rights laws," reports the Orlando Sentinel’s Skyler Swisher. "Florida Secretary of State Cord Byrd, a Gov. Ron DeSantis appointee, advised the DOJ on Friday that state law doesn’t explicitly permit federal election monitors to be inside polling locations.” DIVING INTO THE RHETORIC — “Amendment 4 debate shrouded by half-truths and misdirection,” reports Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix . “DeSantis has been crisscrossing the state with state agency chiefs and physicians opposed to the amendment, contending that proponents of the measure are subjecting Floridians to a ‘blizzard of lies.’ Floridians Protecting Freedom and supporters of the measure have pointed fingers back at the governor, contending he is distorting the amendment and using the power of the state to do so.” MARIJUANA QUESTIONS ANSWERED — How soon will Floridians be able to use marijuana if Amendment 3 passes, and where will they be able to use it? These are just a couple of questions explored in a pair of stories from USA Today Network-Florida. Some key takeaways: — “Picking up some weed for the weekend might not be possible for months, or even years. Next comes the Florida Legislature's turn to implement it, and the nearly inevitable challenges and appeals to follow.” — Possible regulations include “how much marijuana could be purchased at one time, potency limits, rules around marketing and any other concerns that arise during the process, such as where smoking is allowed.” LEGALIZATION CONCERNS — The Florida chapter of American Academy of Pediatrics has come out against legalization for recreational use, reports Verónica Zaragovia of WLRN. The group said it was concerned legalization would give more young people access to the drug. — “Music, prayer, rhetoric: At Souls to Polls, Florida Democrats seek to motivate Black voters,” by Anthony Man and David Fleshler of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
| | | | A message from Uber:   | | | | | ... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ... | | JOB CHANGE — “Brian Meyer is now deputy secretary for Medicaid, the Agency for Health Care Administration website shows,” reports Christine Sexton of the Florida Phoenix. “Meyer has been in the post since Oct. 7, AHCA Deputy Chief of Staff Alecia Collins told the Florida Phoenix in an email. He is paid $200,000 annually.” INSIDE SCHOOL LIBRARIES — “Ron DeSantis' Florida had the most book bans in the 2023-24 school year,” reports Douglas Soule of USA Today Network-Florida. “The state had more than 4,500 instances … according to a new report from national free speech group PEN America. That's a dramatically higher number than the year before: 1,406 bans.” LATER ABORTIONS — “Why this Florida mom had to go out-of-state for abortion care, despite exceptions,” by Stephanie Colombini of WUSF. “There have been 386 abortions performed in Florida so far this year due to ‘fatal’ or ‘serious’ fetal abnormalities, with more than half done after the first trimester. But that is still much less than the 757 performed in 2021, the last full year in which abortion was legal in the state until viability.” SLIPPING THROUGH TO CUSTOMERS — “High potency and pesticides: Marijuana is being sold over the counter in Florida as hemp,” reports Alexandra Glorioso and Claire Healy . “Vape stores and smoke shops around the state are selling illegal marijuana tainted with toxic pesticides, according to the results of testing performed last month by two labs on dozens of joints, vapes and edibles purchased in stores from Tallahassee to Miami and online by the Herald/Times. Many of the tested items, all sold as hemp products, registered with a potency that by legal definition classified them as marijuana.”
| | PENINSULA AND BEYOND | | CULTURE CLASH — “In Miami, long-settled Venezuelans have a bone to pick with new migrants,” reports The Wall Street Journal’s Arian Campo-Flores . “Many Venezuelan migrants who arrived in the U.S. 10 or 20 years ago were well-off professionals who entered by plane. The more recent ones are largely poorer, less-educated people who traversed Panama’s Darién Gap and crossed the U.S.-Mexico border by land. That class divide has bred mistrust and resentment. Many from the earlier waves are wary of the newcomers, saying some are criminals or arrive expecting handouts.” SHREDDED ROOF — “Money, politics and insurance, oh my! The sad saga of fixing the Trop,” by the Tampa Bay Times John Romano. “The issue of whether [the Tampa Bay Rays’ Tropicana Field] can/should be repaired [after Hurricane Milton] is just the first in a series of cascading questions involving cost, insurance, temporary facilities, MLB requirements, upcoming elections and, possibly, the fate of a proposed $6 billion redevelopment deal with a state-of-the-art stadium as its centerpiece.”
| | | | A message from Uber: Thank You, Florida Uber Drivers
In the face of Hurricanes Milton and Helene, Uber drivers gave Floridians rides to shelters and support centers. We thank the thousands of Uber drivers who went above and beyond, ensuring that during a time of crisis, no one was left behind. Your dedication made a difference when it mattered most. Learn how Uber drivers stepped up. | | | | | TRUMPLANDIA AND THE SWAMP | | |  Former President Donald Trump sits with Susie Wiles at the New York Jets football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh on Oct. 20, 2024. | Evan Vucci/AP | ‘YOU DON'T HAVE TO SHOUT TO GET NOTICED’ — “The Florida power broker behind Trump’s chance at a second term,” by The Wall Street Journal’s Alex Leary and Kristina Peterson . “Even some of Trump’s detractors credit [Susie] Wiles for assembling and maintaining a disciplined campaign apparatus to support a figure known for unpredictability. If Trump achieves a historic comeback, the 67-year-old is widely seen in political circles as a favorite to be tapped for a senior White House role, perhaps chief of staff. … Among Wiles’s key contributions has been persuading Trump to urge Republicans to vote early and by mail, which he had previously discouraged.” YOU’VE GOT MAIL — The Palm Beach Post received a letter recently from Ryan Routh, the man who’s been charged with attempting to assassinate former President Donald Trump. PBP reporter Hannah Phillips writes: “The four-page letter did not provide details on the suspected assassination attempt for which Routh faces life in prison. Instead, its author ruminated on how the people of Palm Beach County will vote on Tuesday and what consequences will come of it.”
| | ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN | | — Rep. Anna Paulina Luna graces the cover of Maxim, which also endorsed Donald Trump for president. BIRTHDAYS: State Rep. Demi Busatta Cabrera … State Rep. Felicia Simone Robinson ... Jean Roseme of Rep. Frederica Wilson’s office … Steve Geller, Broward County Commissioner and former legislator. | | | | Follow us on Twitter | | | | Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook | Playbook PM | California Playbook | Florida Playbook | Illinois Playbook | Massachusetts Playbook | New Jersey Playbook | New York Playbook | Ottawa Playbook | Brussels Playbook | London Playbook View all our political and policy newsletters | | Follow us | | | | |
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