NEW YORK MINUTE: Welcome to Election Eve. Some House Republican leaders are in New York today to stump for colleagues in districts crucial to the majority. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) will be on Long Island for Rep. Anthony D’Esposito, and Majority Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) will be in the Hudson Valley for Rep. Mike Lawler and Alison Esposito. Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, meanwhile, will keep making the rounds for Democrats in his home state, including Rep. Pat Ryan today in the Hudson Valley. — Emily Ngo ALL THINGS EQUAL: New York Democratic Committee Chair Jay Jacobs expects the so-called Equal Rights Amendment will pass Tuesday, but not by a robust margin. Jacobs told Playbook a confluence of problems with the amendment, which was intended to cement abortion rights in the state constitution, hobbled it from the beginning. Those issues include broad language on the ballot, as well as a pro-ERA campaign that spent heavily on consultants and little on voter outreach. (The group has since spent $5.1 million to persuade people to vote yes.) That will translate to a comparatively modest result in a state where voters have generally supported reproductive rights, Jacobs predicted. “I don’t think it will be reflective of the support that abortion rights have in the state of New York because, unfortunately, due to the way it was written, voters simply can’t understand it and Republicans can try to misconstrue it,” he said Sunday. A year ago, the ballot proposal was considered a potential boon to Democrats — especially in pivotal House races — and a way of augmenting turnout among voters who support abortion rights. But opponents of the amendment, which include the state GOP, Catholic bishops and a wealthy beer heir , have leveraged its expansive language to warn that approval would lead to trans people participating in women’s sports and non-citizens voting. The language — which includes protections for LGBTQ+ people and for “national origin” — has provided an opening for attacks from the right, allowing critics to paint the measure as going beyond simply bolstering abortion rights. Opponents want to capitalize on voter anxiety over trans people and, in a well-funded TV ad, linked the measure to the migrant crisis and its impact on New Yorkers. “Whether it’s housing, employment, quality of life, medical care, education costs, the criminal justice system; the list goes on and on,” said Rob Ryan, a spokesperson for the group Vote No on Prop 1, which is airing the ad with the help of donor Richard Uihlein, an heir to Schlitz Brewing and GOP donor. “If passed, Prop 1 will create special rights for illegal migrants and higher state and local taxes for New Yorkers." While supporters have rebutted these claims, some Democrats fear the efforts to get the amendment over the finish line haven’t been enough. “I’m definitely still worried that whatever is happening now is too little, too late, and we’ve left the door open for the opponents to define the issue,” said a Democratic political operative who’s working in a battleground House race and was granted anonymity to speak frankly. Privately, consultants on both sides of the amendment fight agree that a close margin for the amendment would be an embarrassment for Democrats, who have made abortion rights a central issue in recent campaigns. Dysfunction over the push for the amendment led Gov. Kathy Hochul in September to redirect $1 million from the state Democratic Committee toward the effort to get the proposal approved. The committee has also sent mailers and text messages urging voters to vote yes. Hochul has appeared at multiple rallies for the amendment, including on Sunday. Spending from the state party to boost the amendment has since doubled to $2 million as well, and Jacobs said he is personally spending $50,000 to boost the measure. Jacobs, a Hochul ally, believes the governor should get credit for stepping in after initially taking a hands-off approach for much of the summer. “She’s pulling it out of the fire, frankly,” he said. “When we win this proposal, I think everybody owes her a debt of gratitude.” Jacobs believes critics of Hochul’s approach need to “get out a big mirror.” But supporters have pressed the state party to do more. “There Jay Jacobs goes again blaming everyone except himself,” Democratic consultant Camille Rivera told Playbook. “On the day before Election Day, he should be doing everything possible to pass Prop 1 and not slinging mud. If we lose, it’s the Democratic establishment that should be to blame.” — Nick Reisman HAPPY MONDAY: There’s one day until Election Day. Got news? Send it our way: Jeff Coltin, Emily Ngo and Nick Reisman.
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