News: Five numbers to know ahead of Election Day

Monday, November 4, 2024

Five numbers to know ahead of Election Day

Nov 04, 2024

TOP LINE

Happy Election Day Eve. As you’re counting down the hours until the big day, there are plenty of numbers floating around out there to parse through.

Here are some figures to know (and no, they aren’t polls):

Voters make selections at their voting booths inside an early voting site.

Voters make selections at their voting booths inside an early voting site on Oct. 17, 2024 in Hendersonville, North Carolina. | Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

— 78 million: That’s how many people voted early as of late Sunday, according to the University of Florida Election Lab, which tracks early voting.

Among states that report by party registration, Democrats and Republicans are nearly on the same level, with Democrats making up 38 percent of those who have voted early and Republicans making up 36 percent. Of course, that doesn’t mean that those Democrats are necessarily voting for Democratic candidates, and the same goes for Republicans.

But the Republican Party at large has worked this cycle to close the gap in early voting, a method that Democrats have dominated in recent years, given former President Donald Trump and other top Republicans’ repeated unfounded warnings that it is an unsafe way to cast a ballot.

Still, don’t read into the early vote too much.

— $1.7 billion: That’s how much has been spent on advertising for the presidential election since Labor Day, per ad tracker AdImpact. Democrats outpaced Republicans, spending more than $1 billion compared to the GOP’s more than $660 million.

Vice President Kamala Harris is the top spender, putting in $398 million. She spent the final stretch of the campaign still attempting to define herself with voters — a unique challenge for her, given her late entry into the race. FF PAC, the main outside group boosting her, dropped $391 million.

Trump was the third-highest spender, with his campaign placing $249 million in that period. He was followed by his main super PAC, MAGA Inc., which spent $199 million.

For context, $1.3 billion was spent on ads between Labor Day and Election Day in 2020.

— $335 million: That’s how much both parties have been investing on the airwaves in the race for Ohio Senate since Labor Day. It’s the most expensive Senate race, as Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown fights for his political life in a state that has shifted to the right since he was first elected to the office.

Republicans, who are boosting Bernie Moreno, have the overall spending advantage here, putting in $187 million to Democrats’ $147 million. Outside groups are the top spenders, showing just how much both parties view this race as critical for who controls the Senate.

— $39 million: That’s how much spending the most expensive House race, NY-19, has drawn on advertising since Labor Day.

Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is fending off a repeat challenge from Democrat Josh Riley, who lost by around 2 points in the midterms. Democrats are outspending Republicans, $22.5 million to $16.9 million.

The sweeping district encompasses five different media markets — including the expensive New York City market — contributing to part of the reason it is so expensive. But even more, it is one of the handful of races that could decide the House majority.

— 75: That’s how many rematches there are in the House this year, according to Ballotpedia. Almost a third of those previously had a margin of 10 percentage points or fewer, and will likely play a role in determining which party controls the House.

There are some benefits to repeat candidates: They have established name ID, and can rely on campaign infrastructure from their previous run. But they also have to win over those voters they couldn’t convince last time around.

Some of those repeat races to watch include NM-02, where former Republican Rep. Yvette Herrell is looking to claim her seat back from Democratic Rep. Gabe Vasquez; WA-03, where Republican Joe Kent is trying to take down Democratic Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez again; and CA-13, where Republican Rep. John Duarte is fending off another challenge from former Democratic state Assemblymember Adam Gray.

It's Monday. We're almost there! Reach me at mfernandez@politico.com and @madfernandez616.

Days until the 2024 election: 1

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VOTING RIGHTS

LEGAL LOOK — The Pennsylvania Supreme Court will not weigh in before Election Day on the merits on if undated ballots should count, meaning that those ballots will “not count in Tuesday’s election, absent any emergency ruling otherwise,” POLITICO’s Zach Montellaro and Josh Gerstein write . “An unusually broad array of entities — including the Republican National Committee, the Democratic National Committee and the American Civil Liberties Union — had asked the justices to definitively settle the issue before Tuesday. “The groups warned of potential confusion about the outcome of the presidential contest if the vote tallies are close and Pennsylvania is critical to the result.”

The U.S. Supreme Court also “refused a Republican request to narrow the options for Pennsylvania voters who botch their mail ballots and still seek to vote,” Josh and Zach write. The high court refused to stay a Pennsylvania Supreme Court order that allows voters whose mail ballot is rejected to cast a provisional ballot in-person on Election Day.

… “Republican election officials in Georgia are pushing back against claims from Trump and his allies of ‘election interference’ in the state, as the former president looks to undermine faith in the electoral system,” POLITICO’s Andrew Howard reports. “Despite the assertions from the secretary of state’s office, the RNC and the Georgia GOP filed a federal lawsuit on Sunday against county election officials in the state for collecting ballots in-person over the weekend. On Saturday, a state court judge rejected a case that would have prevented the locations from being open.”

AS SEEN ON TV

ROUNDUP TIME — Check out the latest batch of ads here. And here are some highlights:

MD-Sen — Former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan calls himself a “maverick” and compares himself to Ronald Reagan, Joe Liberman, John McCain and Joe Manchin, among others.

… Democratic Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks features her daughter hitting Hogan over abortion.

PA-Sen — Democratic Sen. Bob Casey ’s joint fundraising committee asserts that Casey is “not for men and girls' sports” and Republican Dave McCormick is trying to “fool you.”

FL-13 — Win It Back PAC attacks Democrat Whitney Fox over taxes and immigration , saying she “supported Biden's plan raising taxes on middle class families.”

AD WARS — A federal judge rejected the DCCC’s suit against the Federal Election Commission after the FEC deadlocked on a decision regarding joint fundraising committees running television ads boosting candidates, allowing the practice to continue. Republicans have been using the tactic to save hefty sums on TV ads, and some Democrats have started to do so after the FEC’s inaction.

District Judge Randolph Moss wrote that the DCCC’s suit “poses a number of important issues,” though the “Court is unpersuaded that the pending motion presents an appropriate vehicle to reach those questions.”

“As things currently stand, the DCCC, the DSCC, the NRSC, and the DCCC’s direct counterpart, the NRCC, are all on an even playing field,” Moss continued. “Each of these committees works with skilled campaign finance counsel and is well-equipped to make its best judgment about the risk of a future enforcement action or prosecution. Nothing in the FEC’s October 10 letter tilted this playing field, and an order from this Court vacating the October 10 letter would not shift the ground in any legally relevant manner.”

DCCC executive director Julie Merz said in a statement to Score that the committee is “disappointed that the court did not issue immediate relief,” but is “heartened by the judge's observations on the merits of our case.” She added that the DCCC “will evaluate next steps after the election to ensure that a small cadre of right-wing millionaires are not able to buy elections.”

CAMPAIGN INTEL

WAY OUT — Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg did not rule out a gubernatorial run in 2026, when Democratic Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited, per The AP’s Joey Cappelletti. He said he’ll decide “how to make myself useful” after the election.

POLL POSITION

PRESIDENTIAL — NATIONAL — Harris earns 49 percent to Trump’s 46 percent in an ABC News/Ipsos poll (2,267 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 1, MoE +/- 2 percentage points).

The two are tied at 49 percent in an NBC News poll (Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 1,000 registered voters, MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points).

… ARIZONA — Trump narrowly leads Harris in a New York Times/Siena College poll, 48 to 44 percent on the full ballot (1,025 likely voters, Oct. 25-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.4 percentage points).

… GEORGIA — Trump and Harris are tied at 46 percent, per NYT/Siena (1,004 likely voters, Oct. 24-Nov. 1, MoE +/- 4.1 percentage points).

… IOWA — Harris has 47 percent and Trump has 44 percent in a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll conducted by Selzer & Co (808 likely voters, Oct. 28-31, MoE +/- 3.4 percentage points).

“Even if Harris doesn’t win Iowa next week — and with a combined 9 percent choosing another candidate or undecided, it’s certainly possible things could change — the poll could presage greater-than-expected strength for the Democratic nominee in states with similar demographic profiles that are part of the battleground mix, like Wisconsin,” POLITICO’s Steve Shepard writes.

… MICHIGAN — The two are tied at 45 percent in the NYT/Siena poll (998 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.7 percentage points).

Harris has 48 percent and Trump has 45 percent in an EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit Free Press (600 likely voters, Oct. 24-28, MoE +/- 4 percentage points).

… NEVADA — Harris has 48 percent and Trump has 46 percent in the NYT/Siena poll (1,010 likely voters, Oct. 24-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.6 percentage points).

Trump has 50 percent and Harris has 44 percent in a Susquehanna Polling and Research survey (400 likely voters, Oct. 28-31, MoE +/- 4.9 percentage points).

… NEW HAMPSHIRE — Harris has 51 percent and Trump has 46 percent in a Granite State Poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center (2,814 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 1.9 percentage points).

… NORTH CAROLINA — Harris earns 48 percent and Trump gets 45 percent in the NYT/Siena survey (1,010 likely voters, Oct. 28-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.6 percentage points).

… PENNSYLVANIA — The two are tied at 47 percent, per NYT/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena (1,527 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 2.9 percentage points).

Harris has 48 percent and Trump has 47 percent in a Washington Post poll (1,204 likely voters, Oct. 26-30, MoE +/- 3.1 percentage points).

They’re tied at 49 percent in a Suffolk University/USA Today poll (500 likely voters, Oct. 27-30, MoE +/- 4.4 percentage points).

Harris is at 49 percent and Trump is at 47 percent in a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll (460 likely voters, Oct. 27-30, MoE +/- 6 percentage points).

… WISCONSIN — Harris comes in at 48 percent and Trump at 45 percent in the NYT/Siena poll (1,305 likely voters, Oct. 25-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.4 percentage points).

… ME-02 — Trump narrowly leads Harris in this district, which will award a single electoral vote, 48 percent to 44 percent in a Pine Tree State Poll from UNH (683 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 3.7 percentage points).

AZ-Sen — Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego slightly leads Republican Kari Lake in the NYT/Siena poll, 50 percent to 45 percent.

MI-Sen — Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers are close in the NYT/Siena poll, 48 percent to 46 percent.

Slotkin slightly leads Rogers in the EPIC-MRA poll for the Free Press, 47 percent to 42 percent.

NV-Sen — Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen leads Republican Sam Brown 52 percent to 43 percent, per NYT/Siena.

It’s a closer margin between Brown and Rosen, per Susquehanna. Brown comes in at 47 percent, and Rosen has 46 percent.

PA-Sen — Casey has a narrow lead over McCormick, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NYT/Inquirer/Siena poll.

It’s closer in the Washington Post poll, where Casey has 49 percent and McCormick has 46 percent.

Casey has 49 percent to McCormick’s 46 percent in the USA Today/Suffolk poll.

Casey comes in at 49 percent and McCormick at 46 percent in the Muhlenberg/Morning Call survey.

WI-Sen — Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a small lead over Republican Eric Hovde in the NYT/Siena poll, 50 percent to 46 percent.

NH-Gov — Former Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte slightly leads former Democratic Manchester Mayor Joyce Craig, 48 percent to 44 percent, in the Granite State Poll.

NC-Gov — Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein has a double-digit lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, 56 percent to 38 percent.

ME-02 — Democratic Rep. Jared Golden and Republican state Rep. Austin Theriault are neck-and-neck in the Pine Tree State Poll, 45 percent to 44 percent.

NH-01 — Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is ahead of former Republican Executive Councilor Russell Prescott, 51 percent to 39 percent, in the Granite State Poll (1,433 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 2.6 percentage points).

NH-02 — Democrat Maggie Goodlander also leads Republican Lily Tang Williams in the Granite State Poll, 53 percent to 39 percent (1,359 likely voters, Oct. 29-Nov. 2, MoE +/- 2.7 percentage points).

CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: “I’m never running again.” — New York City Councilmember Chi Ossé after running the NYC Marathon.

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