| | | | |  | | By Garrett Ross | | Presented by |  | | | |  | THE CATCH-UP | | | ONE LAST TIME — PBS News/NPR/Marist: KAMALA HARRIS leads DONALD TRUMP nationally among likely voters, 51 percent to 47 percent — a lead just outside the poll’s 3.5-point margin of error. ON PINS AND NEEDLES — The New York Times Tech Guild officially went on strike overnight, “making good on a threat that has loomed over the company for months and could disrupt the newspaper’s ability to cover this week’s election results,” WaPo’s Laura Wagner reports . The Guild comprises roughly 600 employees “whose work on the company’s back-end systems undergirds much of the newspaper’s digital offerings, including live-blogs, mobile push alerts and the Times’ famous election needle.”
|  The real challenge to the election results are likely to come after Tuesday. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO | CHAOS THEORY — On the eve of Election Day, it’s worth taking one last look at how chaos could break out as we wait for results — and what comes after. The brave poll workers who are actually counting the votes are locking down, with some pockets putting up physical barriers and measures meant to deter anyone from thinking about interfering with the process. “The more pressing concern, however, is what happens after Tuesday, in that period, fraught with impatience, between when election workers are counting votes and the results are confirmed,” The Atlantic’s Elaine Godfrey writes. “During this interval — which may be only hours, but may run to days in some places — there will be little actual news and many attempts to create some: At the very moment when a watchful press will be desperate for new developments, conspiracy theorists and Donald Trump’s allies will be intent on sowing chaos and doubt.” Over on Telegram, “the lightly moderated social media platform with nearly one billion users” has “become a harbinger of the potential actions and chaos that could unfold on Election Day and after,” NYT’s Paul Mozur, Adam Satariano, Aaron Krolik and Steven Lee Myers reports. “A New York Times analysis of more than one million messages across nearly 50 Telegram channels with over 500,000 members found a sprawling and interconnected movement intended to question the credibility of the presidential election, interfere with the voting process and potentially dispute the outcome.” Related read: “Four years after ‘Stop the Steal,’ an organized army emerges online,” by WaPo’s Drew Harwell, Cat Zakrzewski and Naomi Nix THE MESSAGING MESS — The closing weeks of the campaign have seen a host of Republican officials and Trump surrogates “introducing unconventional — and generally unpopular — ideas that pit them against the health-policy establishment,” WaPo’s Dan Diamond writes, noting that the statements have “forced prominent Republicans to explain why top Trump surrogates are voluntarily attacking popular, ingrained health programs and public health interventions.” “The assorted proposals also add up to an agenda that would likely damage public health. Policy experts say that if the Affordable Care Act is overhauled, vaccine confidence declines and fluoride is removed from public water systems, the nation could see a spike in the uninsured rate, a return of vaccine-preventable diseases and more oral health problems, particularly in vulnerable communities.” Speaking of questionable health messengers … Here’s the closing message from ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., who remains on the presidential ballot in a few key states: “VOTE TRUMP. No matter what state you live in, do NOT vote for me. Let's get President Trump back in the White House and me to Washington so we can Make America Healthy Again, end the forever wars, and protect our civil liberties.” See the full post on X Related reads: “Alex Clark and the rise of the conservative wellness warrior,” by WaPo’s Kara Voght: “As Trump’s campaign embraces RFK Jr.’s causes, this 31-year-old influencer stands at a key political intersection.” … “The election’s stakes for global health,” by Carmen Paun WOWZA — There’s a remarkable story in the NYT profile of KAREEM RAHMA, by Reggie Ugwu , that details how Harris’ team haggled over which topics she would talk about on Rahma’s “Subway Takes” video series and pushed the online personality to a point of discomfort that led him to entirely squash the interview that he taped with the VP. Long story short: Rahma suggested asking Harris about Gaza and was rebuffed by her team. For the surprising take she was going to share, he was told she’d make “a stand against removing one’s shoes on airplanes. When they sat down, however, Harris had surprised him with a different take: ‘Bacon is a spice.’” Rahma, who is Muslim, doesn’t eat bacon, so he suggested she voice a different surprising opinion. On the advice of a staffer, Harris settled on talking about a pizza topping. “It was so complicated because I’m Muslim and there’s something going on in the world that 100 percent of Muslims care about,” Rahma told NYT. “And then they made it worse by talking about anchovies. Boring!” Good Monday afternoon. Thanks for reading Playbook PM. While we wait for results tomorrow, give me your predictions for … the college basketball season, which tips off today! Drop me a line at gross@politico.com.
| | | | A message from the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association: Elections come and go — but one thing never changes: Big Pharma wants to increase their profits at the expense of everyone else.
That’s why Big Pharma’s top priority for Congress is a self-serving agenda called “delinking,” which would hand big drug companies a massive $32 billion windfall in higher profits, all while protecting their otherwise limitless pricing power and increasing health care costs for employers, patients and taxpayers.
Stop Big Pharma’s “delinking” agenda. | | | CAUTIONARY TALES — A pair of congressional contests out west have both parties facing down difficult realities about the limits of their messaging and shifting demographics in places that were once seen as fruitful ground …
- In California: “Katie Porter is coaching potential successor to win her seat. It may not be enough,” by Chris Cadelago in Newport Beach, California: “SCOTT BAUGH , the longtime GOP operative and former state lawmaker and county party chair who narrowly lost to Porter in 2022, has effectively been running for three years. Democrats have lost ground with registered voters in the district and their candidate this year, state Sen. DAVE MIN, is a capable fundraiser, but nowhere near as prolific as [outgoing Rep. KATIE] PORTER . Private polls have shown a margin-of-error race, and a public survey from late September had the Republican with a narrow advantage, though still within the margin.”
- In Arizona: “Kari Lake is struggling to match Trump’s numbers in Arizona. She doesn’t believe the polls,” by Ally Mutnick in Tucson: “By most traditional measures, [ KARI] LAKE’s campaign has not been effective and a state that was once ripe for a GOP takeover is now widely viewed as one of the party’s least promising pickup opportunities. Her candidacy could become a cautionary tale for Republicans who seek to replicate Trump’s ultra-divisive brand of politics.”
QUICK BITES …
| | 9 THINGS YOU NEED TO KNOW | | |  The fight over state and local tax deductions is headed back to Congress regardless of which party wins the presidential election. | Angelina Katsanis/POLITICO | 1. SALT OF THE EARTH: “The SALT Deduction Fight Is Coming Back — Whoever Wins the Election,” by WSJ’s Richard Rubin: “Republicans and Democrats from high-tax states have been trying unsuccessfully for seven years to dislodge the cap that congressional Republicans built. Their best chance for success is about to arrive. … The cap, along with much of the 2017 tax law, expires at the end of 2025. This time, no matter who wins Tuesday, it will be a key piece of the tax fight. Cap opponents could have a leg up if lawmakers from New York, New Jersey and California hold a congressional balance of power in a slim majority for either party, commanding a large-enough faction to block bills that don’t address their concerns.” 2. WHISKEY TANGO FOXTROT: “Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes,” by WSJ’s Bojan Pancevski in Berlin, Thomas Grove in Warsaw and Max Colchester in London: “Western security officials say they believe that two incendiary devices, shipped via DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation that ultimately aimed to start fires aboard cargo or passenger aircraft flying to the U.S. and Canada, as Moscow steps up a sabotage campaign against Washington and its allies. “The devices ignited at DHL logistics hubs in July, one in Leipzig, Germany, and another in Birmingham, England. The explosions set off a multinational race to find the culprits. Now investigators and spy agencies in Europe have figured out how the devices — electric massagers implanted with a magnesium-based flammable substance — were made and concluded that they were part of a wider Russian plot.”
| | | | REGISTER NOW: Join POLITICO and Capital One for a deep-dive discussion with Acting HUD Secretary Adrianne Todman, Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL), Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) and other housing experts on how to fix America’s housing crisis and build a foundation for financial prosperity. Register to attend in-person or virtually here. | | | | | 3. PROMISES MADE, PROMISES NOT SO WELL KEPT: “Trump’s Big Immigration Raid Snared Them. They’re Still in Mississippi,” by NYT’s Isabelle Taft: “The story of what happened after ICE raided Mississippi poultry plants illustrates the realities of deportation in a dysfunctional immigration system that has not been overhauled in decades. Immigration courts have yearslong backlogs. Many immigrant workers have such longstanding ties to this country that federal law makes it hard to summarily expel them. But it also offers them few pathways to live and work legally in the United States. “That was the case for many of those arrested at the chicken plants, some of whom had lived in rural Mississippi for years before the raids upended their lives. In many cases, they were never deported, after contesting their removals in cases that dragged on for years. They, too, are still living, worshiping and working across this quiet pocket of Mississippi.” 4. KNOWING SUSAN ESCALLIER: A judge this month is set to consider whether Defense Secretary LLOYD AUSTIN acted properly when he reversed SUSAN ESCALLIER’s approval of a prosecution plea deal with men accused of shepherding the 9/11 attacks. Her decision as head of the Pentagon’s war court was “one of the most important decisions in the court’s history, setting off events that have drawn attention to her role and to the dysfunctional military commissions,” NYT’s Carol Rosenberg writes. “She continues in her job in a nondescript office building in Alexandria, Va., with the same title but diminished responsibility. Those who work in her offices have little to say about their boss, whose role is part judicial, part administrative. Some described her as aloof and humorless. She declined a request for an interview. But U.S. military officers who worked with her say she was an outstanding military lawyer who steadily rose through the ranks from one demanding job to another in a career that took her to the Middle East and Africa.”
| | PLAYBOOKERS | | Ralph Nader is extremely pessimistic these days. Elon Musk’s lawyers are mounting an … interesting defense in Pennsylvania. Derrick Van Orden wants Wisconsin to vote for a “fat, blind, bald dude.” TRANSITIONS — Josh Gregory will be press secretary for Rep. Vern Buchanan (R-Fla.). He previously was an associate at Penta Group. … Elizabeth Hoffman will be executive director for North America at The ONE Campaign. She previously was director of congressional and government affairs at CSIS. … Andy Jones is launching Apollo Government Relations. He previously was a strategist at Federal Street Strategies and is a Ben Ray Luján alum. … Emily Mace and Dainsworth Chambers are joining AstraZeneca’s federal affairs team. Mace previously worked in Rep. Larry Buschon’s (R-Ind.) office. Chambers previously was territory manager at Apria Healthcare. WEDDING — Matt Jozwiak, CEO of Rethink Food, and Xin Xue, an entrepreneur and founder of DemeterX, had their wedding reception this weekend at the Freehand Hotel in New York City, following their official ceremony in Jinhu County, Jiangsu Province, China this summer. The couple first crossed paths at the cafeteria of Goldman Sachs, where the groom was promoting his nonprofit. Pic … SPOTTED: Julie Won, Amanda Farías, Jonathan Gray, Shaun Donovan, Jon Levine, Emma Jo Morris, Skye Ostreicher, Rachel Krupa, Anna Hammond, JJ Johnson, Charles Fall and Corby Kummer. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here. Send Playbookers tips to playbook@politico.com or text us at 202-556-3307. Playbook couldn’t happen without our editor Mike DeBonis, deputy editor Zack Stanton and Playbook Daily Briefing producer Callan Tansill-Suddath.
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