Monday, November 4, 2024

Looking under the radar on 2025

Delivered every Monday by 10 a.m., Weekly Tax examines the latest news in tax politics and policy.
Nov 04, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Bernie Becker

THE TIME IS HERE: Believe it or not, there actually is a presidential election tomorrow.

For months now, this and other outlets and articles have noted how important the 2024 elections will be for the big 2025 tax fight — that whichever party has a better Nov. 5 will likely have more leverage next year when Washington has to deal with a raft of temporary parts of the Trump tax cuts that are scheduled to expire on Dec. 31, 2025.

Tuesday’s results will offer a better sense of what policies key officials might emphasize and the process they might use next year, even if any end product could easily take most or all of 2025 (or even beyond) to build.

In the end, those negotiations could easily encompass so much more than the mostly individual tax cuts set to lapse at the end of next year, and extend to permanent parts of the system like the corporate rate, how the government taxes capital gains — or even “no tax on tips” or any of the various other scattershot tax relief ideas offered by former President Donald Trump. (His opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, has also proposed targeted tax cuts — including a version of the tip tax elimination and a new break for startup businesses — though far fewer than Trump.)

With so much potentially on the table next year, there are bound to be some sleeper tax issues that might sail more under the radar. So let’s talk about some of them.

MORE ON THAT IN A BIT, but first: Thanks for joining this preelection version of Weekly Tax. For the record: We so knew that was Tim Kaine.

It’s funny because it’s actually never going to rain again: Today marks 52 years since Johnny Nash’s “I Can See Clearly Now” ascended to No. 1 on the pop charts. (Actual lyric: “I can see clearly now the rain is gone.”)

Tell us about all the obstacles in a tax bill’s way.

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Laying down the chips: This one isn’t even that much of a sleeper issue anymore.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said on Friday that Republicans likely would have an interest in repealing the bipartisan bill to offer new incentives for the domestic production of semiconductors, which President Joe Biden signed into law in 2022.

Johnson later sought to walk back those comments made at a campaign stop in New York, instead saying that the chips law could be improved upon — and allies suggesting that the speaker misheard the question.

The speaker’s comments came after Trump called the chips measure “so bad” in his interview with the podcaster Joe Rogan, and prompted a quick retort from Harris.

“Let’s be clear why he walked it back. Because it’s not popular,” Harris said while campaigning in Milwaukee. “And their agenda is not popular.”

Still, there might be questions about how popular the chips law is among Democrats, even though the vast majority of lawmakers in the party voted for the act a couple years back.

The semiconductor industry would be interested in extending and expanding the tax breaks provided in the existing law, which currently apply to projects started before the end of 2026, in next year’s tax negotiations.

But progressive Democrats “ are souring” on the measure, as our Christine Mui and Brendan Bordelon reported, in part because of questions about the labor standards required of companies benefitting from the law.

The Johnson Amendment: The current requirement that nonprofits abstain from politics barely survived the 2017 tax negotiations — saved near the end by the Senate parliamentarian, in fact.

Seven years later, Trump and his evangelical allies have made it clear that they’d like to take another run at allowing tax-exempt 501(c)(3) groups to take part in electioneering if the former president is reelected.

Meanwhile, nonprofit advocates have told tax writers that protecting what’s known as the Johnson Amendment — because it was shepherded into law seven decades ago by future President Lyndon B. Johnson — is a top priority in next year’s negotiations.

One of the current issues is that churches and nonprofits rarely face repercussions for dabbling in politics. In fact, a group representing atheists and agnostics, the Freedom from Religion Foundation, just asked the IRS to crack down on Johnson Amendment violations conducted to help both Harris and Trump, as Tax Notes reported.

The IRS:  Key GOP lawmakers have said for a couple years now that they’d love to pull back the tens of billions of new funding that Democrats gave to the tax collector in 2022.

They’ve already been partially successful in that goal, getting Biden to agree to cut a quarter of the original $80 billion in funding during last year’s debt limit negotiations.

But it’s not just the new auditors funded through the Inflation Reduction Act that Republicans would likely target next year.

The Direct File initiative, a portal for income tax filing run by the IRS, got its start through the IRA, and GOP lawmakers have made some noise about targeting it through the appropriations process.

Direct File started in a dozen states this year, a number that’s set to double in 2025. One potential problem for Republicans next year: It could be harder to kneecap the program if Direct File runs smoothly next year, as it mostly did in 2024, as Bloomberg Tax just noted.

Don’t forget crypto: The virtual currency industry is pouring money into this election — and it looks like that’s only just the beginning.

The super PAC Fairshake will start the 2026 midterm cycle with at least $78 million in the bank, as our Jasper Goodman reports this morning.

Both Trump and Harris have courted the crypto sector, to varying degrees, during the 2024 campaign. The industry, meanwhile, is making it clear that it will back lawmakers from either party, as long as they’ll help establish a crypto-friendly regulatory regime.

That comes as the Treasury Department and the IRS are still working to implement new tax reporting requirements for the crypto industry, which were passed in the bipartisan infrastructure law in 2021.

Around the World

Bloomberg: “Reeves Says She Was Wrong About UK Tax Needs Before Election.”

Also from Bloomberg: “Nigeria’s Tinubu Insists on Tax Reform Despite Push Back from States.”

Reuters: “ Dutch junior tax minister resigns over refusal to disclose investments.”

Around the Nation

Boston Globe: “In N.H., debate rages over the future of a tax that lawmakers have already killed.”

San Francisco Chronicle: “Judge strikes down San Francisco’s vacant home tax.”

Los Angeles Times: “‘It’s close’: Half of voters polled favor L.A. County Measure A sales tax for homeless services.”

Also Worth Your Time

Pro Financial Services: “Why business leaders are worried about JD Vance.”

Washington Post: “What the tax plans of Harris and Trump could mean for you.”

The Wall Street Journal: “The Tax Moves Investors Are Making No Matter Who Wins the Election.”

The Economist: “Sin taxes are suffering from a shortage of sinners.”

Did you know?

Ray Charles and Willie Nelson are among the other artists to have recorded “I Can See Clearly Now."

 

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Toby Eckert @tobyeckert

Bernie Becker @berniebecker3

Brian Faler @brian_faler

Benjamin Guggenheim @ben_guggenheim

 

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