Monday, November 4, 2024

It’s election eve — and the energy stakes are high

Your guide to the political forces shaping the energy transformation
Nov 04, 2024 View in browser
 
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By Arianna Skibell

Vice President Kamala Harris (right) shakes hands with former President Donald Trump.

Vice President Kamala Harris (right) shakes hands with former President Donald Trump during a presidential debate on Sept. 10. | Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Tuesday’s election is upon us, at a time of dire climate threats and rapidly evolving energy technology. And the policy positions of the two presidential candidates are galaxies apart.

Former President Donald Trump has called climate change a “hoax”; spread falsehoods about clean energy; and pledged to gut environmental agencies, their regulations and Democrats’ climate law if he’s elected — and to push to expand the nation’s already record-setting oil and gas production. Vice President Kamala Harris was the tie-breaking vote for that 2022 law, has pledged to hold polluters accountable and is expected to largely continue the Biden administration’s climate agenda.

Who wins the race will likely prove pivotal for the future of the nation’s energy policies, writes Peter Behr. It could affect everything from what fuels our cars and powers our homes to who builds our energy infrastructure and where.

As voters head to the polls Tuesday, POLITICO reporters are outlining a slice of what's at stake:

Clean energy development
President Joe Biden’s landmark climate law, the Inflation Reduction Act, provided tax breaks and incentives that prompted private companies to announce more than $150 billion in clean energy manufacturing investments, write Kelsey Tamborrino and Jessie Blaeser. That would go to building or expanding more than 500 facilities, with companies promising to create roughly 160,000 jobs.

But 60 percent of those projects are unlikely to come online until the next president’s administration is well underway.

A victory for Harris is unlikely to interfere with the pace of development. If Trump retakes the White House, he could attempt to make good on his campaign pledge to rescind Biden’s climate spending, which could discourage or thwart developers — unless he heeds the pleas of Republican lawmakers who want to keep the IRA’s money flowing to their districts.

Green power for tribal lands 
A Trump victory could mean a major blow to a $200 million effort to use solar energy to secure electricity for thousands of tribal homes that lack power, writes Scott Waldman.

About 17,000 homes on tribal lands across the country don’t have access to electricity. Most of them — about 15,000 — are on Navajo land in Arizona or the Hopi reservation contained within its borders.

Trump has pledged to gut Biden’s two laws funding the power initiative for tribes.

Offshore wind
Biden’s push to install thousands of wind turbines off the nation’s coasts to fight climate change and create jobs could face a massive setback if Trump wins, writes Benjamin Storrow.

Despite a development slowdown caused by supply chain woes and higher costs, the nation now boasts over 400 turbines in U.S. waters — a huge step for an industry that only had seven when Biden took office.

Trump has famously spent years bashing wind power. A second Trump administration, analysts say, could slow-walk permit reviews for new facilities, block future lease sales and decline to defend projects from legal challenges.

Fossil fuel development on public land 
Trump and his running mate, Ohio Republican Sen. JD Vance, have repeatedly vowed to increase domestic fossil fuel production, bringing back the 2008 Republican campaign slogan of “drill, baby, drill,” write Robin Bravender, Jennifer Yachnin, Michael Doyle and Scott Streater.

That would likely mean a major priority shift for the Interior Department, the massive federal agency overseeing public lands, the national parks, Western water conservation and endangered species protections. Still, it’s unclear how much more oil the U.S. can realistically produce given that it’s already setting records.

 

It's Monday  thank you for tuning in to POLITICO's Power Switch. I'm your host,  Arianna Skibell. Power Switch is brought to you by the journalists behind E&E News and POLITICO Energy. Send your tips, comments, questions to askibell@eenews.net.

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Today in POLITICO Energy’s podcast: Catherine Morehouse breaks down the pros and cons of tech companies' new strategy for taking pressure off the power grid by locating data centers in less populated areas that have more power supplies than demand.

Power Centers

Photo collage of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump with hands giving them stacks of money.

Illustration by Claudine Hellmuth/POLITICO (source images via AP and iStock)

Musk drops serious cash on Trump
Elon Musk has poured more than $118 million into Trump's campaign, dramatically outspending the entire oil and gas industry, which the former president had courted, writes Mike Soraghan.

The oil and gas industry has contributed over $20 million to Trump's campaign efforts, a far cry from the $1 billion Trump requested. That's the same amount of money Harris' campaign raised from environmental groups. Her list of top five energy donors includes two clean energy companies and no oil producers.

Trump vows anti-reg blitz
Trump has pledged a large-scale demolition of government regulations starting on Day One if he returns to the White House, writes Robin Bravender.

Still, it’s unclear how some of his campaign promises would translate into presidential policy. For example, Trump promised to issue an executive order directing federal agencies to immediately remove "burdensome" regulations. But the president does not have the power to wipe away federal rules with the stroke of a pen — rather he can direct agencies to reconsider existing rules.

Energy shortages loom in Ukraine
As winter draws near, thousands of Ukrainians are racing to reconstruct, protect and evolve an energy system that has lost half its power generation capacity following continued attacks from Russia, write Victor Jack and Gabriel Gavin.

Experts are already anticipating energy rationing to leave people without power for much of the day. Add in a cold snap and damaging strikes on the country's nuclear power system, and Ukraine could be facing blackouts of up to 20 hours per day.

Biodiversity talks fizzle
The United Nations COP16 biodiversity talks in Cali, Colombia, were suspended this weekend after wealthy countries blocked a proposal to establish a new fund to help poorer nations restore their depleted natural environments, writes James Fernyhough.

It was a bitter end to a conference that many hoped would inject fresh energy into an ambitious treaty that aims to halt and reverse biodiversity loss globally.

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The Google building is seen in New York, Feb. 26, 2024.

The Google building in New York. | Seth Wenig/AP

Google plans to develop an energy-hungry artificial intelligence hub in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, one of the most fossil-fuel-reliant countries on Earth.

Trump lent credence this weekend to a comment Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made on social media declaring that the former president would push water utilities to stop using fluoride if elected. Fluoride in water is considered a major public health innovation.

The European Union's nominee for head of energy policy Dan Jørgensen knows he has to lower energy prices — he just doesn’t know where the money’s coming from to do it.

That's it for today, folks! Thanks for reading.

 

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Arianna Skibell @ariannaskibell

 

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