KYIV PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Ukraine’s backers in Congress are clear-eyed about the steep challenges ahead in approving more aid for the key U.S. ally — and Democrats winning control of the House and the presidency may be their only bet to pass it. In other words: Don’t count on this getting sorted out in the lame duck. When lawmakers return after the election, their immediate priority will likely be securing billions of dollars in disaster aid for hurricane recovery, with some lawmakers wanting to pair that with a fresh round of assistance for Israel. All that, plus the existing political headwinds, means Ukraine aid could well remain a backburner issue into next year — despite bipartisan Ukraine advocates vowing to fight for more cash. “There's a lot of moving parts here,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said. “And if an administration doesn't request something, Congress, on its own, is not likely to produce something." Problems in the House: As for next year, it all depends. The last time Ukraine aid came up in the House, conservatives threatened Mike Johnson’s speakership over the issue, with a majority of Republicans ultimately voting against the eventual package. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, has been anything but secretive about his skepticism about further Ukraine aid. One bright spot is the Senate, where a majority of Republicans has rallied behind Ukraine in the past. So a Democratic House setting the agenda, a Democratic president supportive of additional aid and a Senate coalition of Democrats and GOP foreign-policy hawks are the most potent potential combination to get more Ukraine dollars done. Supporters can continue to count on Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell — who’s stepping aside from his leadership post but expected to retain significant sway among Senate Republicans. “I’m confident that I’m going to be arguing that it’s in America’s interest, our interest, for Ukraine to beat the Russians. No matter which administration,” McConnell said in a statement to POLITICO. Conversely, a victory for Trump and House Republicans would likely doom efforts to provide more funds to beleaguered President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and his countrymen and women. "I think the whole thing depends on the presidential election,” said Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) in a recent interview, echoing the perspective of senators from both parties. “Donald Trump, being elected, will want to back the U.S. out of our engagement with Ukraine and our other NATO allies. … He will want to do that, 100 percent.” Say pretty please: Complicating the dynamics further: Zelenskyy didn’t directly ask for more funding during his most recent trip to the U.S. in late September, according to multiple senators who met with the Ukrainian leader. The current funding, which is still being distributed by the Biden administration, will likely run out early next year, and the White House didn’t respond to our questions Wednesday about whether it was considering a new Ukraine aid request this year. “Right now, he said he has what he needs,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee who met multiple times with Zelenskyy during that trip. Instead, the Ukrainian leader pushed for the U.S. to deliver weapons systems more quickly and allow their use further into Russia — something President Joe Biden’s administration has so far resisted doing to date. Meanwhile, hard-line aid opponents haven’t shifted: “I would definitely vote against it,” conservative Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) said in a September interview. “It's not the time, nor do we have the money.” — Anthony Adragna and Connor O’Brien GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Wednesday, Oct. 16 where we’re genuinely blown away at everyone who's voting early in Georgia (including Jimmy Carter)! WE KEEP POLLING, POLLING, POLLING Much ink has been spilled on Democratic Senate candidates outpacing the presidential horse race numbers in most polling, but a similar picture is emerging in competitive House races: Democratic incumbents appear to be comfortably ahead even amid the tight battle atop the ballot. Some recent examples (with the perennial caution that some of these are internals with a particular POV):
- Minnesota’s 2nd District: A poll released Tuesday by KSTP/SurveyUSA found incumbent Rep. Angie Craig (D-Minn.) besting GOP challenger Joe Teirab, 49 to 41 percent, while Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump by just two percentage points — 47 percent to 45 percent. That would be a significant underperformance for Democrats at the presidential level in this district, which President Joe Biden carried by seven percentage points in 2020.
- North Carolina’s 1st: Internal Democratic polling of this swing North Carolina seat found incumbent Rep. Don Davis leading Republican Laurie Buckhout by 11 percentage points — 50 to 39 percent — even as the same poll found Trump leading Harris by one point — 48 to 47 percent.
- Pennsylvania’s 7th: It’s one of the swingiest districts in the state that may be the tipping point for the presidency, but incumbent Rep. Susan Wild (D-Pa.) is outpacing the top of the ticket, according to a Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion/Morning Call poll. Wild leads GOP challenger Ryan Mackenzie 51 to 45 percent, while Harris leads Trump just 50 to 47 percent in a bellwether district.
- Washington’s 3rd: Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D-Wash.) stunned the political world in 2022 by besting GOP nominee Joe Kent in this southwest Washington district, but she’s poised to outpace Harris in a tight rematch, according to a poll from Public Policy Polling for the Northwest Progressive Institute. Both House contenders are knotted up at 46 percent in the poll — even as Trump leads Harris by a 50 to 45 percent margin.
- Connecticut’s 5th: Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) is narrowly outpolling GOP challenger George Logan, 49 to 46 percent, according to an Emerson College poll . That’s a touch more than the Democratic advantage at the presidential level, with Harris leading Trump just 48 to 47 percent in the district. The House contest is a rematch of 2022 when Hayes prevailed over Logan by just over 2,000 votes.
— Anthony Adragna CONGRESSIONAL DADS ASSEMBLE FOR HARRIS Harris and Trump are duking it out in the campaign’s closing weeks to secure support from male voters, and Democratic dads in Congress have a forceful message for those still on the fence: A Harris presidency will be much better for families. “[Trump’s] tariff plan is going to hurt the American worker,” said Rep. Jimmy Gomez (D-Calif.), founder of the Congressional Dads Caucus. “As dads — as people that have to kind of go and do shopping and help with their families — that money is something that can be used for something else instead of paying for Donald Trump's risky economic tax schemes.” On a Zoom call with reporters, the group of proud papa lawmakers indicated Harris supports three core components of their advocacy: paid family leave, an expanded child tax credit and affordable child care. “Dads are just as integral to that family unit as moms, and the three pillars of the dad's caucus are critical pillars that I know Vice President Harris supports,” said Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.). “[Trump] is favoring the uber, super wealthy — the country club cronies down in Mar-a-Lago — and the other [candidate] is trying to take care of the vast majority of Americans, hundreds of millions of Americans, who are struggling to get by.” — Anthony Adragna
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