| Swing states stand to lose more than most if former President Donald Trump wins the White House and makes good on his promise to claw back funding in the Democrats’ climate law. The seven states that could decide November's presidential election have attracted more than 40 percent of the clean energy manufacturing projects announced since the 2022 law was signed, writes Jean Chemnick. But as Robin Bravender writes, it's unclear whether that will make any difference to voters. With just three weeks to go until the Nov. 5 election, Trump and Democratic nominee Kamala Harris are neck and neck in the polls in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. “It’s really hard to draw a direct line between the stimulus spending and voters’ attitudes towards the election,” said David Wasserman, a senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report. “What’s striking to me is that Democrats didn’t gain much ground in the last several years by talking about their accomplishments on infrastructure or the Inflation Reduction Act in general.” The IRA pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into clean energy, including in the form of loans and tax credits that have spurred a boom in domestic manufacturing. But almost 71 percent of Americans said they had heard little or nothing about the law, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll conducted in July. (Results from a POLITICO-Morning Consult poll in April were only slightly more positive.) And Harris has largely avoided touting the administration’s historic climate investment on the campaign trail. “These direct benefits are things that you would think they would be trying to promote pretty heavily,” said Michael Hanmer, director of the UMD’s Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement, which sponsored the July poll. “Especially if — either naturally or with a little bit of strategic guidance — it happens to be in places where the election is going to be a close call.” Three studies, one takeaway The full economic benefits of the climate law have yet to take effect. Much of the $370 billion in clean energy funds remains unspent. Still, analysts agree that states in the Rust Belt and Sun Belt have seen a disproportionate share of the law’s benefits, as factories to make electric cars and their batteries flock to long-standing centers of U.S. auto manufacturing. An Atlas Public Policy analysis produced for POLITICO’s E&E News found that 44 percent of the clean energy manufacturing projects announced since the climate law was signed are headed to seven swing states. A separate analysis from the climate research firm Energy Innovation puts that share at 48 percent, while the business group E2 found that the states have attracted more than half of the $119.2 billion in manufacturing investment. Much of that money has poured into red districts represented by some of the climate law’s most fervent critics, as Robin writes. For example, Republican Rep. Richard Hudson, whose North Carolina district has seen $12.8 billion in IRA-fueled investment, called the law a “highly partisan scam that cost too much.” Meanwhile, Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, have repeatedly referred to the law as the “Green New Scam” during swing state appearances.
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