A warning from Dr. David 'Doc' Eifrig... The 'ticking time bomb' in millions of Americans' portfolios... More problems for Boeing... The stock still isn't cheap... Our Stansberry Research conference is days away... Livestream Pass details here ...
 Dr. David 'Doc' Eifrig is no fearmonger...
Anyone who has heard from Doc over the years at Stansberry Research – either in his Retirement Millionaire or Income Intelligence newsletters or his Retirement Trader advisory, or listened to him speak at our annual conferences – understands what we're saying... As you likely know, Doc gets his nickname from his medical training as a board-eligible eye surgeon, which came after a storied Wall Street career. He's known for his confidence in great American companies, and he once likened making financial prognostications to the challenge of predicting when a volcano would erupt. As he wrote in a 2022 Digest... You don't know what will happen. They may explode. They may thrive... You just don't know. And you can do all the work in the world to figure it out... So, when Doc just said that he's "deeply concerned" about something in the market today, particularly for those who are near or in retirement, I (Corey McLaughlin) wanted Digest readers to hear about it. This isn't 'safe'... In brief, Doc sees red flags in a way of investing that millions of Americans rely on as a "safe" thing to do with their money. Rather... Doc says it's the opposite of what you should be doing right now. You've heard us warn about buying certain expensive mega-cap tech stocks today. Instead, we repeatedly suggest buying shares of high-quality companies trading at reasonable valuations... and owning inflation protection via well-chosen stocks and "hard assets" like gold... Doc's message right now – and the strategy he's discussing that he uses for his own money – is another approach that's worth hearing out. I don't want to spoil it, but this warning has to do with a specific behavior he is seeing that is typically a sign of trouble ahead for the broad market. For the full details, I urge you to check out this new, free presentation from Doc right now. Here's a snippet about why he's sharing this message... Already, the retirement situation in this country is tragically fragile... Inflation has crushed the dollar's value... And retirees are worried they'll run out of money. Worse, they live in constant fear of everything getting wiped out. And you know what? They're right. That's exactly what I think could happen. This warning reminds me of Doc's call – in the summer of 2021 – about the likely hit the conventional "60/40 stock-bond portfolio" would endure ahead as inflation (and then interest rates) pushed higher. The only direction for prices to go was down, he warned. That is one of the most important messages I've seen us send subscribers in the past five years. The 60/40 portfolio – a bedrock of so many folks' retirement accounts – had a disastrous year in 2022... its worst return in 100 years. But if you listened to Doc's warning in 2021, you could have been spared of the damage. Not only that, Doc told folks the better way to allocate their money to grow or protect their wealth. What he's talking about now could help you avoid what he calls another "ticking time bomb." Again, check out Doc's free presentation here. Moving on, we have an update on the woes at Boeing (BA)... Back in February, I covered some of the issues that the airline manufacturer was facing... including a Federal Aviation Administration ("FAA") investigation into the company's safety protocols amid a frightening passenger jet door "plug" blowout earlier this year. At the time, the stock had fallen about 20%, and I wrote that "there are better buying opportunities elsewhere." Since then, Boeing's problems have only gotten worse. Its stock has fallen a further 24% since our February 29 issue. And for good reason... Most recently, Boeing factory workers have been on strike for more than a month. The company recently announced layoffs for more than 17,000 employees, or 10% of its global workers. And it's continuing to burn through mountains of cash... Credit-ratings agency S&P estimates that the strike will cost Boeing $1 billion for every month it goes on. In total, between the strike, production halts, and investigations, Boeing has used more than $8 billion in cash in the past two quarters. Another ratings agency – Fitch – has threatened the company with a downgrade into "junk" territory if the strike lasts longer than a few weeks. (Again, we're past the one-month mark.) To counter this, Boeing just filed plans to raise as much as $25 billion through new stock and debt. And the first step of this could come soon, with the Wall Street Journal reporting that Boeing will offer $10 billion in new shares (equal to about 11% of the company's current market cap). That dilution means existing shareholders suddenly own a much smaller stake of the company. It's clear that Boeing is scrambling to avoid a downgrade into junk territory... Such a downgrade would make raising debt even more expensive for the company. The company's moves aren't great news, but they're keeping it afloat. We recently read an interesting piece from Rob Spivey, director of research at our corporate affiliate Altimetry. He covered Boeing in the October 9 issue of his free Altimetry Daily Authority e-letter. As Rob wrote... While an extremely long strike could be damaging to Boeing, its financial picture still looks good enough to survive... for the time being. Using Altimetry's proprietary Credit Cash Flow Prime analysis, Rob showed that Boeing has enough cash on hand to cover its obligations in the near term. Take a look at this chart he shared... Boeing's new stock and debt offerings will give Boeing more cash to help it absorb some of the blow from halted production during the strike. But just like we suggested at the start of this year, that doesn't make the stock a buy. As Rob finished up... We've been vocal about our thoughts on Boeing's stock. A turnaround could be years away... And in the meantime, it's still plagued by repeated problems. You're far safer watching the fireworks from a distance. The stock still isn't cheap... Our colleague and Stansberry's Investment Advisory editor Whitney Tilson is of a similar mind. Yesterday, he did a deep dive into Boeing's financials in his free daily e-letter. For the most part, he agrees with Rob that the company isn't out of the woods yet. As Whitney wrote... Boeing still has too much debt and is burning too much cash – not to mention a half-dozen other major issues like FAA scrutiny and the machinists' strike – which makes me think this stock is likely to be a value trap. Whitney said Boeing's plan to sell $10 billion in shares is the right move to "stave off financial distress" but still isn't so sure the stock has finally hit a bottom, even after the string of bad news for the company. Its valuation still isn't cheap, he noted... As of [Monday's] close, Boeing's $137 billion enterprise value ("EV") – $92 billion market cap plus roughly $45 billion of net debt – was equal to 1.9 times trailing revenue of $73.6 billion and 77.1 times trailing earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ("EBITDA"), which is especially high because EBITDA is so depressed. (It has no price-to-earnings multiple since earnings are negative.) If we look at Boeing's EV-to-revenue multiple over the past two decades, we can see that the stock consistently traded at around 1 times for the first dozen years through 2016, so the fact that it has fallen from a peak of 3.4 times to 1.9 times today doesn't make me think it's cheap.
One could argue that revenues are currently depressed at $74 billion... but even if we assume they quickly rebounded to their former peak of $101 billion, the stock's EV-to-revenue multiple would still be 1.4 times – that's 40% above the long-term average prior to all of the financial engineering that destroyed this once-great company. Today, our proprietary Stansberry Score gives Boeing a 47 out of 100, for a "C" grade. But under the hood, it gets grades of "D" for both its financials and capital efficiency – for the exact reasons Whitney highlights. We'll repeat the same advice as eight months ago: There are better buying opportunities elsewhere. Don't go bottom feeding today with Boeing shares. Lastly, it's almost here... Our annual Stansberry Research conference is just days away. We're excited about heading to Las Vegas this weekend and getting things going with attendees starting Monday morning. Even if you're not going to be at the conference in person, you can still catch the action with our Livestream Pass. Click here for details on how to get access. You won't be able to purchase livestream access after this Friday. A sit-down interview between our founder Porter Stansberry and acclaimed author Michael Lewis kicks off the conference on Monday. They will take the stage together for the first time ever for what will surely be an entertaining and informative conversation. From there, the conference will feature dozens of presentations... insights and ideas you won't hear anywhere else from some of the brightest minds in finance... and exclusive investment recommendations from our Stansberry Research editors and invited guests. You'll hear from your favorite folks at Stansberry, like Doc, Dan Ferris, Eric Wade, Greg Diamond, Brett Eversole, Mike DiBiase, Bryan Beach, and Dave Lashmet. And this year's lineup of guests, in addition to Michael Lewis, includes our friends Marc Chaikin, Joel Litman, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, and many more. I'll have more of a preview of the conference in tomorrow's edition and discuss a few things I'm specifically looking forward to next week. During the conference, we'll also share some highlights here from on the ground at the Aria Resort & Casino in Vegas. But if you're interested in the conference at all and won't be there in person, make sure you check out our Livestream Pass option. You can find more information here. Not only can you watch the conference live, but you'll have access to replays and more special features in the broadcast. New 52-week highs (as of 10/15/24): American Express (AXP), Alpha Architect 1-3 Month Box Fund (BOXX), Houlihan Lokey (HLI), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Jack Henry (JKHY), Kellanova (K), Kinross Gold (KGC), McDonald's (MCD), Motorola Solutions (MSI), Invesco High Yield Equity Dividend Achievers Fund (PEY), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), Skeena Resources (SKE), S&P Global (SPGI), Torex Gold Resources (TORXF), Tyler Technologies (TYL), and ProShares Ultra Financials (UYG). In today's mailbag, we received a few notes on the 2020 election, which we briefly mentioned yesterday when discussing how U.S. stock market performance has predicted most election results in the past 100 years... Do you have a comment or question? As always, e-mail us at feedback@stansberryresearch.com. "Why did you bother to add 'and contested by Trump?' B/c it was an invalid protest based on a willful lie... But that's my only knock. I like all your work very much." – Subscriber Chuck W. Corey McLaughlin comment: Well, because of other feedback like this... "Catch up guys, I do not believe you understand that 2020 was definitely stolen..." – Subscriber Gregg C. All the best, Corey McLaughlin with Nick Koziol
Baltimore, Maryland
October 16, 2024
Stansberry Research Top 10 Open Recommendations Top 10 highest-returning open stock positions across all Stansberry Research portfolios | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | MSFT
Microsoft | 11/11/10 | 1,371.9% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | MSFT
Microsoft | 02/10/12 | 1,335.2% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | ADP
Automatic Data Processing | 10/09/08 | 1,046.2% | Extreme Value | Ferris | BRK.B
Berkshire Hathaway | 04/01/09 | 720.4% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | TT
Trane Technologies | 04/12/18 | 532.7% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | WRB
W.R. Berkley | 03/15/12 | 512.5% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | AFG
American Financial | 10/11/12 | 470.0% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | HSY
Hershey | 12/07/07 | 459.1% | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | TTD
The Trade Desk | 10/17/19 | 424.2% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | PANW
Palo Alto Networks | 04/16/20 | 387.0% | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 10 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the model portfolio of any Stansberry Research publication. The buy date reflects when the editor recommended the investment in the listed publication, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if a security is still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber to that publication and refer to the most recent portfolio.
| Top 10 Totals | | 4 | Stansberry's Investment Advisory | Porter | | 3 | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | 2 | Stansberry Innovations Report | Engel | | 1 | Extreme Value | Ferris |
Top 5 Crypto Capital Open Recommendations Top 5 highest-returning open positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Buy Date | Return | Publication | Analyst | wstETH
Wrapped Staked Ethereum | 12/07/18 | 2,291.8% | Crypto Capital | Wade | BTC/USD
Bitcoin | 11/27/18 | 1,681.7% | Crypto Capital | Wade | ONE/USD
Harmony | 12/16/19 | 1,149.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | POL/USD
Polygon | 02/25/21 | 717.9% | Crypto Capital | Wade | CVC/USD
Civic | 01/21/20 | 352.3% | Crypto Capital | Wade | Please note: Securities appearing in the Top 5 are not necessarily recommended buys at current prices. The list reflects the best-performing positions currently in the Crypto Capital model portfolio. The buy date reflects when the recommendation was made, and the return shows its performance since that date. To learn if it's still a recommended buy today, you must be a subscriber and refer to the most recent portfolio.
Stansberry Research Hall of Fame Top 10 all-time, highest-returning closed positions across all Stansberry portfolios | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 5.96 years | 1,466% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Microsoft^ | MSFT | 12.74 years | 1,185% | Retirement Millionaire | Doc | | Inovio Pharma.^ | INO | 1.01 years | 1,139% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Seabridge Gold^ | SA | 4.20 years | 995% | Sjug Conf. | Sjuggerud | | Nvidia^* | NVDA | 4.12 years | 777% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Intellia Therapeutics | NTLA | 1.95 years | 775% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | | Rite Aid 8.5% bond | | 4.97 years | 773% | True Income | Williams | | PNC Warrants | PNC-WS | 6.16 years | 706% | True Wealth Systems | Sjuggerud | | Maxar Technologies^ | MAXR | 1.90 years | 691% | Venture Tech. | Lashmet | | Silvergate Capital | SI | 1.95 years | 681% | Amer. Moonshots | Root | ^ These gains occurred with a partial position in the respective stocks.
* The two partial positions in Nvidia were part of a single recommendation. Editor Dave Lashmet closed the first leg of the position in November 2016 for a gain of about 108%. Then, he closed the second leg in July 2020 for a 777% return. And finally, in May 2022, he booked a 1,466% return on the final leg. Subscribers who followed his advice on Nvidia could've recorded a total weighted average gain of more than 600%.
Stansberry Research Crypto Hall of Fame Top 5 highest-returning closed positions in the Crypto Capital model portfolio | Investment | Symbol | Duration | Gain | Publication | Analyst | | Band Protocol | BAND/USD | 0.31 years | 1,169% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Terra | LUNA/USD | 0.41 years | 1,166% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Polymesh | POLYX/USD | 3.84 years | 1,157% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Frontier | FRONT/USD | 0.09 years | 979% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | Binance Coin | BNB/USD | 1.78 years | 963% | Crypto Capital | Wade | | 
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