| | | | |  | | By Dustin Gardiner and Lara Korte | | Presented by |  | | | |  Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) is seen outside the Republican Steering Committee meeting at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 9, 2023. | Francis Chung/POLITICO | THE BUZZ: MONEY TRAIN — Republican incumbents in California’s key battleground House districts are struggling to match their challengers’ fundraising steam, new filings show. At least four Democrats running in the state’s half-dozen top swing districts have surpassed $5 million in total fundraising this cycle, according to third quarter FEC filings. To have so many candidates exceed that amount speaks to the game of financial one-upmanship playing out in swing races in the Central Valley, Southern California and the Inland Empire. Democrats saw a major surge in late-summer fundraising as they dramatically increased their hauls from the second quarter, as Playbook previously reported. Last night was FEC’s last quarterly deadline before Election Day, and the filings show the money race in most swing districts has already surpassed 2022 totals. It’s almost like the balance of power in the House of Representatives could be decided here. Here are some highlights: DESERT SHELLACKING — Democrat Will Rollins has been among the most prolific fundraisers nationally this cycle, putting Rep. Ken Calvert, the longest-serving member of California’s GOP delegation, to shame. Rollins has raked in nearly $10.7 million in the rematch contest with Calvert. The incumbent, who beat Rollins by slim margin in 2022, has raised about $7.3 million total. Rollins and Calvert are much closer when it comes to cash-on-hand, however. Each has close to $4 million. It’s a troubling sign for Republicans, who were already worried about losing the Inland Empire seat. Last weekend, former President Donald Trump gave Calvert a boost by holding a Coachella Valley rally at the edge of his district. SANTA CLARITA NON-DIET — Republicans also have cause to worry about the fundraising gap between Democrat George Whitesides and GOP Rep. Mike Garcia. Whitesides has raised more than $8.6 million total — which includes at least $1.3 of his own money — and has far more cash left in the bank. Garcia has raised $5.7 million. He’s been swamped on the airwaves in the district, which encompasses Santa Clarita and a swath of north LA county. CENTRAL VALLEY SURGE — The disparity isn’t quite as pronounced for Republican incumbents David Valadao and John Duarte in the Central Valley, but it’s still significant. Democrat Rudy Salas has raised $5.4 million for his rematch with Valadao, compared with $4.4 million for his opponent, and Salas has more cash left. Likewise, Democrat Adam Gray has raked in more than $4.8 million compared to Duarte's just under $4 million. TROUBLE IN OC — The picture is a bit different in the race to fill Rep. Katie Porter’s open Orange County seat. Democratic state Sen. Dave Min has brought in nearly $5.7 million this cycle, compared with just over $4 million for state Republican Scott Baugh. But Baugh has nearly twice as much cash left, a lingering consequence of Min’s drawn-out primary fight with another Democrat. TOUGH AS STEEL — Republican incumbent Michelle Steel was the clear exception to the rule. She has reported raising about $9 million total, double that of Democratic opponent Derek Tran’s nearly $4.4 million. Their Orange County contest has been more competitive than expected, and GOP donors are writing large checks to help Steel drown out her opponent on the air.
|  Gov. Gavin Newsom. | AP | Other things that caught our eye: LOYAL TO THE END — Gov. Gavin Newsom ’s national super PAC, the Campaign for Democracy, spent nearly $1 million on text messages to boost President Joe Biden in the flagging final weeks of his campaign. The spending came earlier in the summer, as Newsom traveled the country, stumping for Biden while other party leaders from California privately pushed for Biden to get out of the race. The pro-Biden expenditure was the most significant from Newsom’s PAC, which spent $1.3 million total. He also spent $9,600 on text messages to support Michigan Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin. MO’ MONEY, MO’ MUSK — Billionaire Elon Musk funneled just shy of $75 million into his super PAC to back Trump. As our colleagues Jessica Piper and Lisa Kashinsky reported , the donation speaks to how Musk has become increasingly integral to Trump’s political operation since the Tesla CEO endorsed him after the former president was shot in July. GOING HIS OWN WAY — Many conservative-leaning mega donors have circled around Trump, but not billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper . He gave $926,300 to the Harris Victory Fund last month. Draper, an earlier evangelist for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, is among a smaller segment of GOP donors who flipped to the Democratic nominee after Trump became the nominee. $6M FOR GARVEY — Retired Republican baseball star Steve Garvey raised nearly $6 million last quarter alone for his California Senate bid. That's about $110,000 more than his heavily favored Democratic opponent, Rep. Adam Schiff, who has focused much of his attention during the sleepy post-primary campaign season helping other candidates. GOOD MORNING. Happy Wednesday. Thanks for waking up with Playbook. You can text us at 916-562-0685 — save it as “CA Playbook” in your contacts. Or drop us a line at lkorte@politico.com and dgardiner@politico.com, or on X — @DustinGardiner and @Lara_Korte. WHERE’S GAVIN? Newsom is in Washington to attend the memorial service for Ethel Kennedy . Later in the week, he is expected to hit the campaign trail for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris before returning home on Saturday.
| | | | A message from L'Oréal: Approximately 65% of Americans have textured hair – coiled, curly, or wavy. California’s new law, Textured Hair Education Bill (AB 2166), addresses the unique needs of these hair types by providing education for beauty professionals. Thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom & Dr. Akilah Weber, this ensures all Californians are seen and celebrated in the salon chair. | | | |  | CAMPAIGN YEAR | | FIRST IN PLAYBOOK: DIVERSITY OUTREACH — A new paid ad campaign from the Democratic National Committee aims to meet California’s myriad voter blocs where they are — namely, specialty media outlets. Starting today, the party is spending six figures to run ads in 32 different ethnic, racial and other publications that reach a slew of demographic groups Democrats need to turn out this election. The list of media reflects California’s diverse electorate. Among the Asian American outlets, for example, include newspapers geared toward Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Filipino and Indian audiences. The multiple Latino-focused outlets include newspapers based in the Central Valley and Inland Empire — home of some of the fiercest House battles in the state. Also targeted for outreach are Black, LGBTQ+ and Armenian voters. The ads themselves urge readers to make a plan for voting and have an overall plug for Democrats, but do not mention any specific candidates. “We’re reaching voters where they are and through the platforms they trust, so that voters everywhere – including voters of color and in the LGBTQ+ community – have the resources they need to cast their ballot in the most important election of our lifetimes,” DNC chair Jaime Harrison said in a statement. — Melanie Mason LATINO LANE — A new survey gauging Latino voters’ opinions in swing races found that Democratic candidates still have a sizable lead despite reports of an uptick in GOP registration within the community. The survey of registered voters was conducted by the Latino Community Foundation, a philanthropic group that promotes voter participation, and BSP Research. Pollsters focused on swing districts with a significant Latino population: Among the highlights: — Salas leads Valadao by the widest margin among registered Latino voters, 57 to 21 percent in CA-22 (Bakersfield). — Whitesides has a double-digit lead over Garcia with a 54 to 24 percent margin in CA-27 (Santa Clarita and northern LA County). — Rollins leads Calvert 51 to 28 percent in CA-41 (Riverside County and Palm Springs). Gary Segura, the lead researcher on the poll, said all of the districts still had large portions of undecided Latino voters. However, he said, the survey suggests that GOP messaging doesn’t “appear to be having much effect” with those voters. The survey included 1,000 registered Latino voters across five battleground House districts and was conducted Oct. 3-10. The margin of error per district was 6.9 percent.
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Democratic Rep. Mike Levin. | House Television | WATCH OUT, DEMOCRATS — Incumbent Democratic Rep. Mike Levin is on upset watch after the Cook Political Report moved his district from “likely Democrat” to “lean Democrat” yesterday. Levin’s district, nestled along the coast between Orange and San Diego counties, is the first of California’s four sleeper House races to move toward toss-up territory since we introduced the under-the-radar contests back in September. Republican challenger Matt Gunderson has been running as a self-described “pro-choice” candidate in an effort to neutralize a weakness that’s haunted the GOP since the 2022 midterms. Democrats are taking the threat seriously: Their House Majority PAC has committed $1.56 million in TV ads to boost Levin ahead of Election Day. An internal GOP poll shared Monday with Playbook showed Levin leading by just one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, with Gunderson ahead among independents. “Southern Californians are embracing businessman Matt Gunderson’s common-sense plan to lower taxes and secure the border,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Ben Petersen said in a statement. — Tyler Katzenberger
| | | | A message from L'Oréal:   | | | | | NEWSOMLAND | | |  Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Coachella on Oct. 12. | Alex Brandon/AP | THANK A GUN LAW — Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco said over the weekend that his office “probably stopped another assassination attempt” when it arrested an armed man near Trump’s rally in the Coachella Valley. But one particular aspect of his apprehension caught Democrats’ eye. Bianco’s deputies arrested the man on suspicion of illegally possessing a high-capacity magazine and other firearms. Newsom’s office told Playbook it's an example of California’s strong gun laws at work. "It's good to see Riverside County Sheriff’s Office is enforcing California’s commonsense and lifesaving gun laws,” said Tara Gallegos, a spokesperson for Newsom, in a not-so-veiled critique of Bianco, a Republican who has protested the state’s gun restrictions. In a bizarre wrinkle, the Las Vegas man arrested by Bianco’s office told the Los Angeles Times that he supports Trump and brought two weapons to the rally for self protection. He said he plans to file a “massive lawsuit” against the county. Bianco said it is “common sense” that showing up to a political rally with guns and fake IDs would draw suspicion.
| | | | A message from L'Oréal: Approximately 65% of Americans have textured hair – coiled, curly, or wavy. Yet, for far too long, cosmetology training has overlooked the unique needs of these hair types. California’s new law, Textured Hair Education Bill (AB 2166), addresses this by providing education for beauty professionals. Thanks to Gov. Gavin Newsom and Dr. Akilah Weber, this ensures that all Californians are seen and celebrated in the salon chair. The Professional Products Division of L'Oréal is a proud founding member of the Texture Education Collective (TEC), an alliance of professional hair industry leaders working together to influence cosmetology state board licensing requirements and curriculums to be inclusive of all hair textures and all hair types. | | | | | FOR GOOD MEASURE | | BALLOT MEASURES 101 — Not sure how to vote on this year’s slate of statewide ballot measures? Join POLITICO’s Emily Schultheis and Will McCarthy , reporters on our ballot measures team, for an event at the San Francisco Public Library on Thursday to break down the biggest issues on the California ballot this fall. The event starts at 6 p.m. at the SFPL’s Main Library (100 Larkin Street in Civic Center). More details here.
| | CLIMATE AND ENERGY | | DON'T CALL IT TRUMP-PROOFING — As California officials scramble to Trump-proof their climate policies ahead of the November election, a new reality is dawning. When it comes to the courts, Trump may have already won. Read more about the risks to California's tailpipe rules no matter who wins the election in last night's California Climate.
| | TOP TALKERS | | |  San Francisco mayoral candidate Daniel Lurie. | AP | VOTE OF CONFIDENCE — The San Francisco Chronicle’s editorial board dropped a lengthy endorsement yesterday that scrutinized each candidate and called Daniel Lurie as “a risk worth taking” for SF residents craving a leadership change. In the same breath, the paper dubbed incumbent Mayor London Breed a “safe choice.” But the board was clear on who not to vote for: Mark Farrell. “Put Farrell’s biggest ideas to the test and few hold water,” it wrote. ROLL THE TAPE — Republican Assembly candidate Denise Aguilar was caught on camera making antisemitic and conspiratorial remarks, the Sacramento Bee reports. The video, posted to right-wing social media site Rumble, shows Aguilar claiming without evidence that Pacific Gas & Electric shut off power during wildfires in 2019 to “smoke out” child traffickers. She also said PG&E was owned by the Rothschild family, a false claim that plays into antisemitic tropes.
| | AROUND THE STATE | | — Breed wants San Francisco’s school district to “immediately stop” planned school closures and says she has “lost confidence” in the district’s superintendent. (San Francisco Chronicle) — Newly obtained court documents allege Sean “Diddy” Combs choked an intern and put a UCLA head coach in a headlock during a brawl at the school in 2015, when his son was on the football team. (Los Angeles Times) — There’s a turf war brewing in the Bay Area: Should new athletic fields and public parks install artificial or natural grass? (East Bay Times)
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